Finals Preview---Vengeance or Heartbreak?

Any Spurs fan knows that game 6 of the Finals last season was roughly equivalent to the Red Wedding of basketball games.  I received a text when the Spurs went up by 5 with 28 seconds, saying only "congrats".  I replied that the game wasn't over yet, because in my cynical heart, I didn't think the basketball gods would ever actually allow the Spurs to win.  Sadly, I was right.  The Heat are basically the Lannisters; they have their charms, sure, but at the end of the day, the team is an inorganic construction which defies the laws of gods and men.  Last year's Finals got so close to the good guys winning, only to snatch it away at the last second; it seriously felt like one of those Game of Thrones episodes that just feel like a kick to the nuts.

Ray Allen hitting the biggest shot of his life.

That being said, conventional wisdom (ie basketball fans with whom I have spoken) seems to lean towards the Spurs in the rematch, with the logic being that this year's Spurs are slightly better than last year's edition, and this year's Heat is slightly worse.  Let's break that down:

SPURS

Improvements:

1.  The Wizard is back.  

Manu Ginobili suffered an awful stretch of basketball last postseason, for the first time in his career.  The man who built his reputation for his stellar postseason and Olympic play, looked downright pedestrian.  His first step slowed, his jumper seemed to always be off, and his legs seemed gone.  In recompense, he tried things to overcome his newfound physical shortcomings, leading to a rash of turnovers.  Manu still had some great playoff moments, like his buzzer beating 3 against Golden State and his 24 point 10 assist game against the Heat, but for the most part, Manu did not look like a Hall of Fame player.  As Charles Barkley always says, Father Time is undefeated.  

This year however, Manu has bounced back in a major way.  He isn't the player he was 5 years ago, but he looks healthy.  He is shooting a far better percentage this postseason from the field, from 3, and from the free throw line than last year, as well as increasing his steals and cutting his turnovers.  To steal a technique from Bill Simmons, here are 5 players and their per 48 minute stats this postseason:

Player 1: 28 points per 48 minutes (PP48), 8 assists per 48 (AP48), 3.36 steals per 48 (SP48), 6.5 rebounds per 48 (RP48), 1.37 points per shot (PPS)

Player 2: 25.8 PP48, 5.9 AP48, 2.03 SP48, 5.3 RP48, 1.31 PPS

Player 3: 29.4 PP48, 6.4 AP48, 2.19 SP48, 5.1 RP48, 1.21 PPS

Player 4: 34 PP48, 6.3 AP48, 2.26 SP48, 8.5 RP48, 1.63 PPS

Player 5: 33.2 PP48, 4.4 AP48, 1.12 SP48, 10 RP48, 1.33 PPS

Player 1 is Ginobili, 2 is Wade, 3 is Harden, 4 is LeBron, and 5 is Kevin Durant.  Basically, Manu is playing at the absolute highest level of ball.  His return to health means that the Spurs have an all star-caliber player on the court at all times.  

2. Australia in Texas

Patty Mills used to get no run from Popovich, because he was out of shape and inconsistent with his shot.  This year he gained Pop's confidence, and has provided a major spark which did not exist last year.  Instead of Ginobili playing point guard when Tony Parker rests, the Spurs now have another legitimate offensive weapon to throw at the Heat.  

Those are the main two improvements the Spurs have made.  Kawhi Leonard has become a bit more consistent with his shot and assertive, but not a major leap forward.  He remains a lockdown perimeter defender and a capable shooter, slasher, and finisher.  He is well-known for his rebounding prowess, and has the best combination of traits to deal with LeBron this side of Paul George (and in fact maybe even better than George, as he is physically stronger than the Indiana small forward).  Marco Bellinelli was perhaps a marginal improvement over the underrated Gary Neal, but that's it.  Basically, the reason folks are picking the Spurs comes down to the fact that Ginobili looks like himself again.

HEAT

The Heat haven't improved at all this year.  Wade is a little less explosive, Mike Miller is gone, and Battier looks like he can barely move.  However they still have the best player alive, they still have a 7 footer in Bosh who can step out behind the 3 point line (on occasion), Wade is still a 230 pound running back with a good midrange jumper, Norris Cole is still a great defender, and Birdman seems to be getting better with age.  Oh yeah, they also have the best 3 point shooter of this generation in Ray Allen.

Breakdown by position:

Point Guard

Advantage Spurs.  Assuming the Frenchman's ankle is anything approaching normal, he will have a massive advantage over Chalmers or Cole.  I expect the latter to play big minutes this series because he has a far better chance to stay in front of Parker than Mario does.  On the other end, Parker is a below average defender, but Chalmers and Cole are at best average offensive players.  Patty Mills is a better offensive player than either Chalmers or Cole, and a better defender than Parker.  It will be interesting to see if both teams go super small, with double point guard alignments.  

Shooting Guard

Advantage Spurs.  Ginobili and Wade may cancel each other out, but the Spurs have great depth at the position, bringing in sweet-shooting Danny Green and Italian Ice, aka Marco Bellinelli.  The Heat bring in Ray Allen, who, despite looking not a day over 28, is a real shell of himself.  I never thought I would say these words, but at this point, Danny Green is better than Jesus Shuttlesworth.  

Small Forward

Advantage Heat.  LeBron may be the best player ever not named Michael Jordan.  Who knows.  He is some weird fusion of Karl Malone, Magic, and MJ.  Nobody can really stop him, but Kawhi Leonard has the ability to make him work and to body him up (some).  Boris Diaw as well did an excellent job using his quick feet and big body to slow him last year.  On the other end, Leonard has become a well rounded offensive player, a beastly defender (named 2nd team all-NBA defense), and a great rebounder.  LeBron will have to guard him some or the corner 3s will rain down.  Rashard Lewis, dragged out of his coffin in time for the conference finals, is a wild card, as is the decrepit Shane Battier.  If those two are hitting their open or semi-open 3s, the Heat have a great chance to win.

Power Forward

Advantage Spurs.  Bosh and Duncan mostly cancel each other out, but Diaw is a massive upgrade over Haslem.  Duncan showed flashes against OKC of the form which made him a living legend.  Bosh will step out to the 3 point line to draw Duncan from the hoop.  If he can make his 3s, the Heat win.  If he can't, they lose.  

Center

Advantage: Even.  Splitter has proven to be a serviceable big man, but against the Heat last year, he couldn't even stay on the floor.  Ginobili showered him with dunk opportunities, but with his nonexistent vertical leap and poor ability to catch and finish in traffic, he wasted most of them.  On the other hand, Birdman is an impact help defender, a great finisher, a rim protector, and a strong rebounder.  He can't shoot and doesn't play much though, nor does he defend well in the post.  If Duncan gets him one on one down low, there will be a foul on Birdman, a bucket for Duncan, or a wide open 3.  

THE PICK

Spurs in 7.  The Lannisters aren't the only ones who pay their debts.