Monday, June 16, 2014

Requiem For Revenge




This week an army of Islamic extremists too crazy for al-Qaeda conquered large swaths of Iraq, executing hundreds of people in the process.  In neighboring Syria, a civil war which has taken the lives of hundreds of thousands of people rages on.  In Africa, the UN just released a report showing that 4 million people in South Sudan face famine.  Several days ago in Ukraine, a military plane was shot down, killing 49 people.   In our own amazing, chaotic nation, the rate of youth unemployment is over 13% (which doesn't include those who are in school, nor those who have given up searching), costing the country $25 billion annually and leading to an entire generation of lost souls with massive student debts that they cannot escape nor hope to pay back.  Yet last night, after watching the Spurs beat the brains out of the Miami Heat, I was ebullient.  Why?

Sports do not matter.  Sports are there for us to ignore the pain, monotony, failure, and heartbreak of our fleeting existence.  Through watching millionaire athletes playing a child's game, we leave our problems behind for several hours and escape to a suspended reality in which all that matters is whether or not an orange ball goes into a hole 10 feet off the ground.  It is silly to think that seeing Manu Ginobili dunk on Chris Bosh's very soul would be enough to placate me, yet last night, that is exactly what happened.

The San Antonio Spurs represent the best that sports has to offer, if we choose to view sports as a life metaphor.  A team and an organization that utilizes a style based on unselfishness, commitment, individual development, synergy, and teamwork, last night beat a team whose system was to buy the best players on the market and put them together.  It would be an insulting oversimplification to both teams to suggest that teamwork overcame talent last night; rather, a deep and talented team playing as one organic unit, overcame (and thoroughly humiliated) a group of talented individuals who did not have the same continuity or depth of talent.  This depth and continuity disparity was due to the way in which the teams were constructed; the Spurs were built through drafting and international scouting, with players nurtured in an environment which left them either improving or sent out of town.  Meanwhile the Heat were "built" via signing 3 max-level players to slightly less than the max simultaneously, in a way to ensure that LeBron could never whine about having to win a championship by himself.

MJ 6-6 in Finals.  LBJ 2-5 in Finals.
The Heat's strategy was an unquestionable success; they won two titles in four seasons and made it to the NBA Finals all four times (granted, they play in the Eastern Conference).  That being said, the staying power of the Heat remains a question; there is no reason to suspect Miami players will be loyal the way the Spurs organization has been able to keep great players in the Alamo, despite the small market nature of the town.  David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are all Hall of Famers who spent/are spending their entire careers in a quiet city near the border with Mexico.  That is not by chance; the organization has figured out a way to cultivate, augment, and keep its talent, despite the lure of brighter lights in other, bigger cities.

More than merely an example of teamwork and coherence, the Spurs' victory last night was a testament to our love of revenge, the most primal of instincts.  San Antonio displayed a singleminded focus all season, and that focus was clear: destroy the Heat.  That they did.  The spirit and courage required to suffer the most devastating of losses, and then rise up and regain the championship, says so much more about the Spurs character than their success alone.

Last season for the first time in his career, Manu Ginobili seemed to go from a playmaker extraordinaire to a washed-up, beaten-up, turnover machine.  He seriously considered retirement after his (generally) poor playoff performance.  Instead, he took the summer off from basketball for the first time in years, staying in the weight room instead of on the hardwood, allowing his hamstrings to heal from multiple pulls last season.  This year he returned in far better form, and elevated his level of play in the playoffs.

GAOAT (Greatest Australian of All-Time)
Patty Mills similarly elevated his game this season, going from Popovich's doghouse for being chronically out of shape, to a defensive whir and a devastating three-point shooter.  His foot speed, tenacity, and ball pressure gave Miami fits, as the Aussie drew multiple offensive fouls on the Heat.  On the other end, Mills proved to be a force of nature, hitting 5 3-pointers and continually keeping Miami far away from striking range.  He was, undoubtedly, the best player on the court in the third period last night.  The first half however belonged to the Argentine.

Last night Popovich brought Ginobili in earlier than usual, and Manu rewarded his coach by singlehandledly saving the game from getting out of hand. The Spurs were down 22-6 when Ginobili came in; he quickly converted a three-point play, hit a three-pointer, drew an offensive foul, threw a perfect entry pass to Tim Duncan to draw a foul, and stymied the Heat's momentum.  From then on, it seemed as though victory became inevitable for San Antonio.  After Ginobili's dunk on Bosh to cap a remarkable 14-0 run, the Argentine followed up with an absurd step-back three-pointer, further deflating Miami.  The Spurs turned what had been a 16 point deficit into a 7 point lead at the half.  In the third quarter, behind an array of 3 pointers (especially from the incredible Patty Mills who had 14 in the period), the Spurs firmly closed the door on any thoughts the Heat had about trying to win the game.  All the while Tony Parker and Danny Green (like Dwayne Wade) were entirely MIA, pun intended.

The period of greatness anchored by David Robinson and Tim Duncan started in 1989.  Amazing. 
Therein lies the aforementioned difference between the two teams: depth.  Parker starting 0-10 from the field had no impact on the game; Wade playing terribly, by contrast, did have an effect.  It was hilarious to watch Ginobili "guard" Wade; he basically stood 10 feet away from the future Hall of Famer from Marquette and the Spurs played 5 on 4 defense, daring Wade to shoot.  LeBron was the best player on the floor in the first quarter; Ginobili was the best player in the second quarter, Mills was in the third quarter, and Parker was in the fourth quarter.  None of those three Spurs were likely even among the top 3 Spurs in Finals MVP voting, that honor going to Kawhi Leonard (and presumably followed by Duncan and Boris "French Magic Johnson" Diaw).

The future is hard to predict in sports, as in real life.  Who knows if we will ever see these two teams square off in the Finals again; it is possible that LeBron could opt out and bolt Miami to another city.  Duncan and Ginobili could retire or get injured.  Free agents Patty Mills and Boris Diaw could leave San Antonio for financially greener pastures.  Yet for right now, in this moment in time, those questions can wait.  At this time we celebrate courage, hope, grit and redemption. Perhaps that is a good enough reason to watch sports.   


Sunday, June 15, 2014

GINOBILIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


He's still got it.

More tomorrow!

Rampant Speculation: A Collaborative Approach to the Game of Thrones Season Finale


In honor of the season finale of the greatest show of all-time, J4G and site contributor datgirlcshelle broke down the storylines to look forward to tonight.  

J4G: Do you think Tyrion is going to die this episode?  If no, why not/how will he evade?

datgirlcshelle: So we all know the GRRM does not believe in sacred lambs. He prefers to sacrifice lambs at the slaughter house.  Knowing this, it would be easy to predict that Tyrion dies.  I think there's too much at play with the other characters for that to happen though.  I think the best way to look at Game of Thrones (and not have your feelings spoiled and thrown out with those month old leftovers you finally decided to take out of the refrigerator) is to think about what machinations a character can add to securing the throne.  In Prince Oberyn's case, his sole purpose was revenge.  His motive was too short-sighted to survive the game.  Much like Rob, though he was charismatic, his pursuit of what he considered justice did not let him see the long game.

 I think because Tyrion can read the other characters (arguably even Little Finger), he can adjust his value to meet the needs of a character most likely to help him.  Maybe.  It might be wishful thinking, but Tyrion's head seems safe to me for now. 


Q: In the last episode, we saw the Black Brothers successfully hold the Wall.... for a night. We also saw a lot of their weaknesses. Many couldn't handle the weaponry and at one point I saw a Black Brother jump on a Thenn's back and summarily get sliced through with a battle axe.  Do you think they will stand a chance in the next round?  If so, what do you think will change at Castle Black? Who will be the main players?

J4G: A good question you posit, re: the Night's Watch (btw, is Black Brothers a term from the books or did you make that up?).  My feeling is this: we have barely seen Mance Rayder at all over the course of the show, so it feels illogical that he would all of a sudden become the one dude to crack the Wall.  That being said, we had barely seen the Mountain, yet he killed Oberyn (I'm still not over that, btw).  So basically, the normal rules of television don't apply to GRRM.  He doesn't give a fuck about your feelings, your hopes, your dreams, or your favorite characters.  He punishes characters for making mistakes (see Stark, Ned, Stark, Robb, Martel, Oberin, Baratheon, Joffrey, et al), and there is no reason to think the Night's Watchmen will be any less screwed than anyone else.  They do have the strategic advantage of that massive buzz saw which swings across the wall, but if 100,000 wildlings come to the front gate, it is all over.  

We know John Snow (who, by the way, knows nothing) is going to find Mance (without his sword, smh), and we know Mance is a tricky bastard who will likely not be fooled again by Ned's bastard.  John thinks he will just get Mance in a room alone and kill him.  I think John is going to die this episode, and that without him, the Night's Watch will crumble like the Miami Heat in home games against the Spurs.  Perhaps the Lannisters will send reinforcements from King's Landing, but as of now, the Night's Watch seems on the verge of defeat.  I in fact am going to predict that not only will John die, but that the wildlings will kill everyone at Castle Black before the end of the episode.

Speaking of killing, one of the best sequences of the season (and frankly in the history of the show) came when Lil Finger told Sansa why he helped her, said that in a different world she would have been his daughter, then kissed her while crazy ass Lysa watched.  When Baelysh subsequently stopped Lysa from throwing Sansa down the sky door then told her he loved her sister and pushed her to her own certain death, I think everyone watching felt good (only on this show do we feel good when someone gets thrown 1000 feet down a mountain).  Now that the Hound and Arya are at the Erie, what do you think is going to happen?  Are we looking at a reunion?   

datgirlcshelle: Well, first I'd like to say that I would have felt better had Sansa pushed Lysa out the door.  I'm a little perturbed that she is the only one that doesn't have blood on her hands (except for accidentally setting up Ned to die).  That said, I'm glad she finally got some backbone (and I do mean SOME with her simple self).  I'm not sure a reunion will happen the the Stark sisters. The Hound seems like the type to wander elsewhere and I don't see Arya leaving his side any time soon.  Also, no one is supposed to know that Sansa is in the Vale except the Council, Little Finger and Robin.  Arya has no reason to believe her sister if there.  Likewise, Sansa would have no clue Ayra is outside.  Barring a gossip-girlesque gate soldier telling either sister about the arrival, I see this as being a Missed Connection of the Jon Snow/Bran Stark nature.  I do hope The Hound and Brienne meet up eventually.  I'd like to see that go down. 

Let's head back to King's Landing.  How do you think Dorne will respond to the death of Prince Oberyn?  What, if anything, can Tywin do to prepare for a response?

J4G: Don't forget that Sansa's dumb ass also caused the death of her dire wolf, Lady (RIP), when she lied about what happened between Joffrey, Arya, Arya's dire wolf, and the butcher's son.  

As it pertains to Dorne, it is an important question.  We have to remember that Cersei/Jaime's daughter Myrcella is in Dorne, and although she seems sweet, she is still a Lannister.  There was a scene earlier this season in which Tywin asked Orberyn to join the Small Council, citing Dorne's military prowess (he said it was the only of the Seven Kingdoms to resist the Targaeryns and their dragons.  Thus we can extrapolate that Dorne is not to be trifled with, and losing one of their princes would certainly constitute a big deal.  Given that Oberyn himself (a famed warrior and prince) came to avenge his sister, we can assume that the response to losing another member of the royal family will be serious.  I think Myrcella is a goner.  I hope Dorne goes in hard against the Lannisters.

As it pertains to Tywin, I am not really sure what he can do.  Myrcella is already there, and the Martell family hates the Lannisters to death.  If he can't buy them off, there is nothing Tywin really can do, except (inshallah) lose a granddaughter. 

Speaking of people who hate the Lannisters, what do you think will happen with Stannis' attempt to get the Iron Throne?  Last time we saw him, he had successfully (well, more the Onion Knight than Stannis himself) convinced the Bank of Bravos to give him money to go take King's Landing.  Do you think he will be back in King's Landing soon?

datgirlcshelle: I think Stannis has a ways to go before heading to King's Landing again.  I know he has bought the pirates and possibly more sell swords along with more ships, but I don't see his strategy other than having the Red Witch and a prayer.  Also he needs to figure out how he's going to deal with having his wife/family and his side chick on a long boat trip.  Pimpin can't be that easy and his wife is about 2 steps from the edge of sanity.  Stannis needs to get all of his life in order before we see him attack the crown again.  I also wonder how he plans to enter King's Landing. Surely not the way he came the first time.

Let's talk about the Throne.  We know the players who are pursuing it, but, maybe with the exception of the Lannister family, we don't know what each would do with it given the chance to sit the Throne.  How do you picture Westoros under Little Finger?  Stannis?  Dany?

J4G: As for Lil Finger, that is a scary thought, no?  He is super clever, merciless, unscrupulous, and self-made.  Maybe he would actually be good for the realm.  He kind of hates the Lannisters, which I respect, he knows how to build alliances, and his business savvy developed as a pimp would certain be useful for running the Seven Kingdoms.  

Stannis would bring Sharia law to Westeros.  We know from what he did to the Onion Knight that he is serious about justice.  He doesn't seem to be an easily corruptible type; let's not forget that during the siege of Blackwater Bay, Cersei was going to kill herself because she didn't think she would be able to seduce Stannis.   His reliance on witchcraft is slightly troubling; it would be interesting to see how the red priestess would impact any future reign.  Would he ban the other gods and make everyone worship the God of Light?  Who knows.

We know from Dany's moniker of "breaker of chains" how she feels about slavery and injustice.  That in and of itself doesn't mean she would be a just queen, but she has been ruling in Mereen, and showed some pragmatism dealing with the burial of the crucified master whose son wanted to bury his father.  Now that she is without Sir Jorah, I am not sure if her pragmatism will remain.  He was her closest advisor for a reason.  If she were to get to King's Landing, she would probably have to murder thousands of people to take the city, and she would likely be fine with that, as she believes in the righteousness of her cause.

Speaking of Dany, what do you think is in store for her in the season finale?  She is sans Sir Jorah, has a big army, and is getting a taste of the queen life.  Do you think she will cross the Narrow Sea?  How do you think the loss of Sir Jorah will effect her efficacy?  

datgirlcshelle: I guess a multi-party system isn't any better than a two party system when all the choices suck.

On Dany: Wee little old Dany.  She's getting too big for her britches... or whatever gown she wears now.  Pragmatism isn't her strong suit.  Jorah balanced her rashness, and even then, she barely listened to him.  Now she has a former King's guard ( who wasn't banished and can trade up any time), a translator, an unsullied who is little more than a yes man, and a foolish sell sword with a hankering for adventure on her advisory committee.  On top of that, she can't seem to manage the cities that she "freed".  She was shortsighted in the long-term care of the freed people who weren't marching with her, and thus put them in arguably more danger, facing the resentment and bitter wrath of the remaining noble people.  Her mid-level management staff choices are pretty questionable too.  Pitting Jorah against Daario?  NO, girl! Perhaps the only good thing to come from Jorah's dismissal is that Daario wasn't there to make it worse, and the possible backlash of having 2 advisers vying for Dany's attention/trust/favor MIGHT not happen. Sending the son of the nobleman that was crucified as an ambassador?  NO, girl! I need Dany to understand that she is NOT the only one who can plot a coup.  For all of Dany's potential greatness, she's acting like the teen queen that she is.

Dany barely has a grasp over Mereen and can't really control her dragons.  She's not crossing the Narrow Sea.  Someone will have to bring the war to her cause she has 99 problems and she's not trying to make an offensive attack on King's Landing one.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Die Another Day



After last night's nail-biter (yes, a nail-biter and a blowout at the same time), Spurs fane awoke today with smiles on their faces.  These weren't the smiles of victory, mind you, but rather the smiles of fans not yet defeated.  What does that mean, exactly?  Miami has an aura of invincibility to it; after last year's choke job/comeback in game 6, Spurs' fans would have been well within their rights to believe that victory against the Heat was impossible.  After all, Duncan, Manu, and Parker are all a year older, while LeBron is still the NBA's version of Hulk Hogan, Anderson Silva, Fedor, Michael Jordan, and Alexander Karelin rolled into one.  When he "Hulked up" in game 2 and started hitting long contested jumper after long contested jumper, Spurs fans could only say to themselves, "not again".  The Spurs clearly have the better team, but it often seems as though LeBron can score any time he wants to, which demoralizes opponents and helps struggling teammates.

Last night San Antonio had to contend with the lingering stench from the game 2 loss, the four missed free throws in a row in the fourth quarter, and doubts from last year's Finals.  A victory in game 3 would not have meant certain victory for the aging team from Texas, but a loss, in all likelihood, would have meant the series was over.  Even for a team as mentally strong as San Antonio, getting past the events of last season, and then having to deal with a seeming recurrence of the same tragic (tragic in the context of sports, not life) fate, would prove almost insurmountable to overcome.  

What Changed Between Games Two and Three?

Kawhi Leonard, playing at a high level all season long, got in quick foul trouble in game 2 and spent the night looking meek on offense and enjoying long swaths of time on the bench.  Similarly in game 1 he was unproductive on the offensive end, scoring only 9 points (the same as his game 2 total). By contrast in game 3, he was in attack mode on offense from the get-go, avoided foul trouble, and played lights-out defense on LeBron James, forcing 7 turnovers.  Leonard set the tone early as the Spurs build a massive lead, and his stellar play continued all game long, finishing with 29 points.  More than mere stats, his dominant first quarter gave the Spurs the emotional boost they needed to galvanize their confidence after the deflating game 2 defeat.  Leonard's ability to stay on the floor will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.  

The second key was Danny Green finally learning how to dribble a basketball.  Green, a wonderful, streaky, pure shooter, had never shown much in the way of handle or willingness to go rack.  That changed in game 3.  Green finished 7-8 from the field, with only two of those attempts coming from three.  Instead, the shooting guard from UNC pump faked off the catch and drove to the rim, finishing an and-one layup on a play in which he blew by LeBron (although he missed the free throw).  The added pressure that Green's drives put on the Heat defense led to open shots for San Antonio.  Additionally, Green played stellar defense, getting five steals over the course of the game.  If Green can keep up his offensive aggression, the Spurs will be quite difficult to stop.

Lastly, Popovich made the decision to split up Duncan and Splitter.  This was a wise move; spacing-wise, San Antonio is much easier to guard with only 1 immobile non-shooter in the game.  Getting Boris Diaw on the court is like having a second point guard (or third in case Ginobili and Parker are both in the game), and the chubby Frenchman also showed an aggressive streak on offense which has rarely been seen.  Diaw went right at Bosh and James Jones and anyone else who was guarding him, using his girth and surprsingly quick feet.  He also made some stellar passes and was a force on the glass, as per usual.  Of course he also provides the additional ability to guard perimeter players, which Splitter and Duncan do not do particularly well.  

How Will Miami Respond?

Just as in the game 1 loss, Miami did not play poorly on offense; the Heat shot over 50% and hit 10 three-pointers, at a 47% clip.  They turned the ball over far too much however, and have gotten terrible point guard play.  Where do they go from here?  It seems clear that the Heat's 7 best players are LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Birdman, and Norris Cole.  Given LeBron's ability to play any position and Bosh's ability to play a stretch 5, the team's best offensive lineup in crunch time is Bosh at the center position, Lewis at power forward, LeBron at small forward, with Wade and Allen in the backcourt.  Norris Cole provides stellar defense and should get more of Chalmers' minutes.  Birdman has proven adept at guarding Duncan one on one, something I did not expect.  Inexplicably, Bosh only had 4 shots in game 3, making all of them.  Miami needs to get him the ball more, as his combination of size, shooting, surprising quickness, and handle, make him a matchup nightmare for Duncan or Splitter.   

  

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Finals Preview---Vengeance or Heartbreak?


Any Spurs fan knows that game 6 of the Finals last season was roughly equivalent to the Red Wedding of basketball games.  I received a text when the Spurs went up by 5 with 28 seconds, saying only "congrats".  I replied that the game wasn't over yet, because in my cynical heart, I didn't think the basketball gods would ever actually allow the Spurs to win.  Sadly, I was right.  The Heat are basically the Lannisters; they have their charms, sure, but at the end of the day, the team is an inorganic construction which defies the laws of gods and men.  Last year's Finals got so close to the good guys winning, only to snatch it away at the last second; it seriously felt like one of those Game of Thrones episodes that just feel like a kick to the nuts.
Ray Allen hitting the biggest shot of his life.


That being said, conventional wisdom (ie basketball fans with whom I have spoken) seems to lean towards the Spurs in the rematch, with the logic being that this year's Spurs are slightly better than last year's edition, and this year's Heat is slightly worse.  Let's break that down:

SPURS

Improvements:

1.  The Wizard is back.  
Manu Ginobili suffered an awful stretch of basketball last postseason, for the first time in his career.  The man who built his reputation for his stellar postseason and Olympic play, looked downright pedestrian.  His first step slowed, his jumper seemed to always be off, and his legs seemed gone.  In recompense, he tried things to overcome his newfound physical shortcomings, leading to a rash of turnovers.  Manu still had some great playoff moments, like his buzzer beating 3 against Golden State and his 24 point 10 assist game against the Heat, but for the most part, Manu did not look like a Hall of Fame player.  As Charles Barkley always says, Father Time is undefeated.  

This year however, Manu has bounced back in a major way.  He isn't the player he was 5 years ago, but he looks healthy.  He is shooting a far better percentage this postseason from the field, from 3, and from the free throw line than last year, as well as increasing his steals and cutting his turnovers.  To steal a technique from Bill Simmons, here are 5 players and their per 48 minute stats this postseason:

Player 1: 28 points per 48 minutes (PP48), 8 assists per 48 (AP48), 3.36 steals per 48 (SP48), 6.5 rebounds per 48 (RP48), 1.37 points per shot (PPS)

Player 2: 25.8 PP48, 5.9 AP48, 2.03 SP48, 5.3 RP48, 1.31 PPS

Player 3: 29.4 PP48, 6.4 AP48, 2.19 SP48, 5.1 RP48, 1.21 PPS

Player 4: 34 PP48, 6.3 AP48, 2.26 SP48, 8.5 RP48, 1.63 PPS

Player 5: 33.2 PP48, 4.4 AP48, 1.12 SP48, 10 RP48, 1.33 PPS

Player 1 is Ginobili, 2 is Wade, 3 is Harden, 4 is LeBron, and 5 is Kevin Durant.  Basically, Manu is playing at the absolute highest level of ball.  His return to health means that the Spurs have an all star-caliber player on the court at all times.  

2. Australia in Texas

Patty Mills used to get no run from Popovich, because he was out of shape and inconsistent with his shot.  This year he gained Pop's confidence, and has provided a major spark which did not exist last year.  Instead of Ginobili playing point guard when Tony Parker rests, the Spurs now have another legitimate offensive weapon to throw at the Heat.  

Those are the main two improvements the Spurs have made.  Kawhi Leonard has become a bit more consistent with his shot and assertive, but not a major leap forward.  He remains a lockdown perimeter defender and a capable shooter, slasher, and finisher.  He is well-known for his rebounding prowess, and has the best combination of traits to deal with LeBron this side of Paul George (and in fact maybe even better than George, as he is physically stronger than the Indiana small forward).  Marco Bellinelli was perhaps a marginal improvement over the underrated Gary Neal, but that's it.  Basically, the reason folks are picking the Spurs comes down to the fact that Ginobili looks like himself again.


HEAT

The Heat haven't improved at all this year.  Wade is a little less explosive, Mike Miller is gone, and Battier looks like he can barely move.  However they still have the best player alive, they still have a 7 footer in Bosh who can step out behind the 3 point line (on occasion), Wade is still a 230 pound running back with a good midrange jumper, Norris Cole is still a great defender, and Birdman seems to be getting better with age.  Oh yeah, they also have the best 3 point shooter of this generation in Ray Allen.


Breakdown by position:

Point Guard
Advantage Spurs.  Assuming the Frenchman's ankle is anything approaching normal, he will have a massive advantage over Chalmers or Cole.  I expect the latter to play big minutes this series because he has a far better chance to stay in front of Parker than Mario does.  On the other end, Parker is a below average defender, but Chalmers and Cole are at best average offensive players.  Patty Mills is a better offensive player than either Chalmers or Cole, and a better defender than Parker.  It will be interesting to see if both teams go super small, with double point guard alignments.  

Shooting Guard
Advantage Spurs.  Ginobili and Wade may cancel each other out, but the Spurs have great depth at the position, bringing in sweet-shooting Danny Green and Italian Ice, aka Marco Bellinelli.  The Heat bring in Ray Allen, who, despite looking not a day over 28, is a real shell of himself.  I never thought I would say these words, but at this point, Danny Green is better than Jesus Shuttlesworth.  

Small Forward
Advantage Heat.  LeBron may be the best player ever not named Michael Jordan.  Who knows.  He is some weird fusion of Karl Malone, Magic, and MJ.  Nobody can really stop him, but Kawhi Leonard has the ability to make him work and to body him up (some).  Boris Diaw as well did an excellent job using his quick feet and big body to slow him last year.  On the other end, Leonard has become a well rounded offensive player, a beastly defender (named 2nd team all-NBA defense), and a great rebounder.  LeBron will have to guard him some or the corner 3s will rain down.  Rashard Lewis, dragged out of his coffin in time for the conference finals, is a wild card, as is the decrepit Shane Battier.  If those two are hitting their open or semi-open 3s, the Heat have a great chance to win.

Power Forward
Advantage Spurs.  Bosh and Duncan mostly cancel each other out, but Diaw is a massive upgrade over Haslem.  Duncan showed flashes against OKC of the form which made him a living legend.  Bosh will step out to the 3 point line to draw Duncan from the hoop.  If he can make his 3s, the Heat win.  If he can't, they lose.  

Center
Advantage: Even.  Splitter has proven to be a serviceable big man, but against the Heat last year, he couldn't even stay on the floor.  Ginobili showered him with dunk opportunities, but with his nonexistent vertical leap and poor ability to catch and finish in traffic, he wasted most of them.  On the other hand, Birdman is an impact help defender, a great finisher, a rim protector, and a strong rebounder.  He can't shoot and doesn't play much though, nor does he defend well in the post.  If Duncan gets him one on one down low, there will be a foul on Birdman, a bucket for Duncan, or a wide open 3.  

THE PICK
Spurs in 7.  The Lannisters aren't the only ones who pay their debts.