Conor's Rebellion

Will Dana and the Fertittas go Mad King mode or make peace?

The Notorious and The Unthinkable

I was all set to write a preview of Game of Thrones season six when the unthinkable happened: Conor McGregor, the biggest star in the history of MMA, the single biggest current fighter in the world in MMA or boxing, decided to “retire”.  Conor was set to face Nate Diaz in a rematch of their epic and shocking battle at UFC 196, which Diaz won by choke in the second round after getting battered for almost the entire duration of the bout to that point.  The rematch was to be held at UFC 200, which would have been a spectacle no matter what due to its nature as a centurial event, but was set to be the biggest pay per view in UFC history because of McGregor’s ascension, which seems to be unstoppable even in the face of crushing defeat.  Conor’s three previous pay per views pulled in 825,000, 1,200,000, and 1,500,000 buys, ranking as the 17^th, 3^rd, and 2^nd most buys in UFC history, behind only UFC 100, when Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir and GSP vs Thiago Alves drew 1.6 million buys.  Conor’s 3 PPVs are the 3 highest live gates in UFC history.  UFC 200 was set to crush them all.  Two million pay per view buys seemed within the realm of possibility.  Conor became the first fighter in UFC history to earn a disclosed paycheck of one million dollars, before any pay per view points were factored into his salary.  He was getting adulation from Mike Tyson; Canelo Alvarez and Andre Ward talked about watching his most recent fight; Vin Diesel offered him a movie role.  The world was Conor’s, and then all of a sudden, he decided that he wanted no more.

Fast forward two days, and we see that it was all a rouse.  His retirement tweet literally broke the Internet.  Kobe Bryant’s retirement tweet was the most retweeted athlete retirement tweet of 2015 with 130k retweets; Conor’s retirement tweet got 165k retweets within 48 hours.  Today, as Conor wrote a lengthy Facebook post saying that he isn’t retired but rather wants to concentrate on training rather than doing another endless round of media, he restated his desire to fight on UFC 200 against Nate Diaz.  So far we have no confirmation (minus an anonymous TMZ report) one way or another if the UFC will do the right thing for their bottom line (and to not alienate their fan base), or if they will be spiteful to make a point. 

Las Vegas or Westeros

All this drama reminds me of Game of Thrones.  Who would be the Westeros version of Dana White?  Tywin Lannister?  No, Dana is not that clever.  Joffrey Baratheon?  No, Dana is not evil.  Perhaps the Mad King, Aerys Targaryen; both had a penchant for taking great pleasure in destroying their enemies, both were successful rulers for a time, both went crazy, and both eventually angered enough people to lead to a rebellion.  That rebellion in GOT was led by Robert Baratheon, Eddard Stark, Jon Arryn, and eventually the slippery Tywin Lannister, who had convinced the Mad King he was there to help.  When Jaime Lannister stabbed the Mad King in the back in the culminating moment of the rebellion, Aerys' last words before his death were "burn them all", telling Jaime to make sure everyone suffered for Robert's impudence toward the king.  If Dana and the Fertittas keep Conor off UFC 200 despite the hundreds of millions of dollars he brings in via pay per view revenues, despite the massive live gates, excitement, and media attention he brings, it will be Dana's Mad King moment.  

Burn Them All

Just as the Targaryens eventually pushed the people to revolt, so too is Zuffa angering the great houses (famous fighters) and the huddled masses (the fans).  The flight of UFC fighters to Bellator is an unintended consequence of the UFC’s shocking disregard for their fighters’ financial well-being, as evidenced by the terrible deal with Reebok.  The UFC has, since the demise of Pride, continually had a massive leverage advantage over its fighters.  Now, with the Reebok deal in place, the UFC has banned outside sponsors, therein pilfering income from the fighters, and making them more reliant on the UFC for their earnings.  Now instead of fighters receiving six-figures per fight from their various sponsors, they are allowed only what Reebok will give them, paltry sums ranging from 2500-40,000 per fight, the highest number reserved only for champions.  This leverage imbalance is compounded by the UFC’s purchases of its competitors, namely Strikeforce, Pride, and WEC; only Bellator remains afloat and out of the UFC’s pockets (and likely will remain as such, as the UFC is currently fighting an antitrust lawsuit and doesn’t want to veer into monopoly territory).  The UFC keeps salaries low and awards discretionary locker room bonuses to fighters who put on an exciting show; fighters are told to take it or leave it.   What can fighters do in this environment?  

Conor Baratheon?

Robert felt about Lyanna as Conor feels about glory and money.

When Rhaegar Targaryen kidnapped Lyanna Stark, who was engaged to Robert Baratheon, Robert didn’t just accept it; he started a war to win her back.  The odds were against him, going against such a powerful dynasty, but he believed in his cause, and was joined by other great houses, also wronged by the Mad King.  When the UFC told Conor to do another round of media to hype his fight and he refused, threats were clearly made by the UFC.  Conor didn't take it lying down; he announced his retirement on Twitter, and then passionately explained his side of the story after Dana claimed to be removing Conor from UFC 200.  Conor McGregor is not yet looking for war with the UFC (I use the word 'yet' because he clearly intends to become a promoter after his fighting days are done; note that in his Facebook missive, he wrote that he is “not yet” paid to promote fights, in a Little Finger-like message hinting at his true intentions), but is rather seeking what he believes is justice, in getting back what is his and was wrongly taken from him.  He may have, however, overplayed his hand, and if the UFC denies his request to fight at UFC 200, then a proper war could ensue.  Conor posted a photo of himself on Facebook tonight saying “your move” to the UFC; he is basically daring them to either give in or tell him no.  If they don’t let him fight, there is no way of knowing what will happen next.  Conor might actually retire, the UFC might sue him, and things will turn nasty in a hurry.   Brace yourselves for Conor’s Rebellion. 

The Mother of Dragons and The Creator of Red Panty Nights

It isn't hard to figure out what the people want.

A better analogy might be Conor as Daenarys Targaryen, who, after taking Meereen, has to deal with the old, spiteful leaders of the great city.  Even though all appears peaceful at times on the surface, the old guard hates Daenarys and plots her demise.   Daenarys stands for freedom for slaves, a dangerous concept in a great city built on the back of slave labor.  Daenarys sends the Unsullied to convince the slaves of Meereen to free themselves in a classic scene.  Similarly Conor stands for freedom for fighters; it is no accident that following Conor’s rise to prominence, Aljamain Sterling, Rory MacDonald, Ben Henderson, and Alistair Overeem have chosen to fight out their contracts rather than going for the safety of negotiating a lower salary before their current contracts expire.  Conor’s ability to bypass the UFC and connect directly with the customers, just as Khaleesi was able to bypass the masters of Meereen and speak directly with the slaves, is a game changer.  Further, just as Daenarys has something nobody else has in the form of dragons, Conor has something no other UFC fighter has ever had: leverage.  The UFC is used to getting its way, and controlling the message.  Because Conor has such a large fanbase and social media following, and because Dana White is a part of the social media world, he can’t hide from the blatant fact that all the fans want to see Conor fight, and will be incredibly pissed off if their favorite fighter, the sport’s most compelling competitor, is held off UFC 200 to make a point. 

Season 6 and a decision from the UFC await.  Valar Morghulis. 

Musings on the Second Season

Musings on the Second Season

One day into the playoffs, and no big surprises.  We knew that Dallas was old and unathletic even before Chandler Parsons went down for the year with a knee injury.  Any team that relies on Dirk, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Zaza, and Salah Mejri in crunch time, is going to be defensively challenged.  I watched roughly 3 minutes of the game before turning it off; it was as if the Mavs were moving in slow motion.  Dirk doesn’t look much physically different than he did 10 years ago, but he is slower and couldn’t jump over a coffee cup at this point in his career. 

Last tango in Paris?

The general rule is to pick the team with the best player in a series; when the two best players are on one team, it is almost unfair.  Durant may never play for OKC after this season; I think he and Westbrook are both aware of the potentially fleeting nature of their partnership and intend to take advantage of their remaining time together.  They are going to absolutely massacre Dallas.  This series should be over in four games, but if the Mavs’ role players excel in a home game and Dallas gets some hometown officiating, this series could go 5.

In the Eastern Conference, the Raptors lost game 1, as they are wont to do.  It isn’t hard to understand why: talent wins more than effort in the playoffs, when effort is no longer skewed one way or the other.  In the playoffs, the game is slower, tighter, and more methodical.  There are less bad turnovers, less fast break opportunities, and more physical, grinding, half-court possessions.  In such a scenario, the team with the best player usually wins.  Paul George is the best player in the series, by a wide margin.  Before he suffered the gruesome leg-break, PG was already a superstar.  Who will ever forget him playing LeBron to a virtual standstill at the pinnacle of LBJ’s powers (like Reggie did against MJ), blowing by him, and dunking on Birdman’s very soul?  As good as Kyle Lowry and DeRozan are, they aren’t playoff superstars.  I expect the Pacers to win a close series.

On the subject of talent and effort, when the playoffs come around and the intensity level ratchets up, I am reminded of all those people who prefer college basketball to the real thing.  They say the kids try harder, it is a purer sport, and that March Madness is exciting.  I can understand someone cheering for his alma mater, but for real basketball fans, there is nothing like the highest level of competition.  Keep your March Madness; I will always prefer watching professionals at the peak of their abilities playing against each other for the highest of stakes.  The glory of June lasts forever; an NBA player’s resume is never complete without a ring, or at least a trip to the Finals. 

CP3 and Blake ready for their annual fishing trip after another failed playoff run.  

Speaking of playoff glory, keep in mind the primacy of the second season when you hear someone anoint Chris Paul one of the best point guards of all-time.  How can someone who has never even made it to a Conference Finals be a legend?  How can one be an all-time great without ever making his team great?  It isn’t as though Paul lacks a talented supporting cast; he plays with one of the best power forwards in the league, a dominant defensive center, a deadeye shooter, and has a walking heat check off the bench in Jamal Crawford.  If the Clippers can’t make it to the Conference Finals this year (and they won’t), it will get harder and harder to consider Paul as historically elite in the second season.  One could say that Paul has been snake-bitten to play in the same conference as the Big Three of the Spurs, or against Steph Curry and his otherworldly talent.  However, that argument doesn’t hold up.  The Jazz, who never won a title despite having one of the greatest point guards and one of the greatest power forwards of all-time, at least made it to the Finals twice.  The Supersonics of Payton and Kemp made it to the Finals, as did Charles Barkley and his Suns. Reggie Miller made it to the Finals with the Pacers, and Patrick Ewing made it to the Finals with the Knicks.  None of them won a ring, but they got a lot closer than Paul ever has.  It is starting to look like Chris Paul will only make it to the NBA Finals if he buys a ticket to the game (of course, if the rumored “super friends” squad of Chris Paul, Wade, LeBron, and Carmelo are able to assemble in LA Clippers’ regalia this summer, that could change).

"Are you telling me Marc Gasol and Conley are BOTH out?  LOL"

Getting off my Chris Paul tangent, back to the picks:  San Antonio will beat the Grizzlies (if you can even call them the Grizzlies with their 2 best players on IR) in 4 games.  It will look like a regular season game for the Spurs; everyone will play 25 minutes and Bobo Marjanovic will get some run in the 4^th quarter of blowouts.  Timmy, Tony, Manu, and Boris will be seen laughing hysterically on the bench, and Popovich will try to maintain his serious demeanor in the face of a D-League-caliber opponent. 

Boston vs Atlanta has all the makings of a seven-game series, although if Avery Bradley is hurt, the Celtics might not make it that far.  Both teams are scrappy; while Atlanta is still the better team, the Hawks are on the downswing while Boston is on its way up.  Sadly for Hawks’ fans, the team’s window is closed, as Kyle Korver went from a lights-out shooter to a one-dimensional guy who seems unable to add any nuance to his game.   In the long run, who cares though?  Neither of these teams has a chance in hell at being world champion any time soon.  

"Please carry me, LeBron"

The Cavs will beat the Pistons, but it won’t be a sweep; LeBron is past his prime and Detroit is tough.  Reggie Jackson, if he has recovered from his abdominal strain, will give the inconsistent Kyrie Erving fits, Andre Drummond is a true alpha big man, and Tobias Harris and the less-prickly Morris twin will make LeBron and Kevin Love work on defense.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit were to win 2 games this series; Cleveland is good, but not great, and definitely less than the sum of its parts.  I bet Kevin “white Chris Bosh” Love regrets re-upping with a team that apparently has wasted his skills and or made him into a mediocre player.  This guy went from putting up 26 and 12 to 16 and 10, with a lower shooting percentage and seemingly much less confidence.    

Blake and his main sparring partner.  A really tough guy is Mr. Griffin.

The series between the Clippers and the Blazers should be high scoring and exciting, but the Clips are a much better team.  If Chris Paul and friends can’t beat a band of upstart kids with no playoff experience, then he should retire, Blake should become a pro fighter (preferably only against people much smaller, as is his preference), JJ should become a hair model, and DeAndre should make commercials full-time.   As well as Patriot League standout CJ McCollum has played, and as much of a star as Lillard has become, they are still woefully unequipped to beat a team with as much experience making it to the second round and then losing as the Clippers.

The last series in the Eastern Conference, between Miami and the Hornets, should be fun.  Kemba Walker is a blur, Nic Batum is a skinny man’s Boris Diaw, and Marvin Williams has become a legitimate two-way player.  Charlotte has a great bench; Lin, Al Jefferson, Frank the Tank, Spencer Hawes, and Psycho T, all of whom seem to make legitimate contributions on a regular basis.  If Michael Kidd-Gilchrest and his bulldog defense were playing, I might pick them in this series, but I think Miami is a bit too tough.  Dragic has rediscovered his game, Wade has a nasty old man game, Winslow and Richardson are providing athleticism off the bench, the addition of Joe Johnson was huge, and Whiteside has been killing people.  If Bosh weren’t injured (sick?), I would take them to beat the Cavs.  Alas, for a second straight season, it is not to be. 

The look of a champion. 

Finally, we have the Warriors vs James, Dwight, and the rest of the embarrassing Rockets.  Steph Curry played 3 minutes in the second half and the Dubs still won in a blowout.  Even if Curry’s ankle is badly injured, the Rockets are terrible and pose no danger to the Warriors.  I wonder where Dwight will end up playing after this disastrous season; maybe he can go to China and finally win a title.