Nobody Likes Me
There is an untold truth leading up to the McGregor-Mendes
fight. The truth in question is that Chad
Mendes is no less cocky than Conor McGregor, but instead of coming off as funny
and confident, Mendes comes across an insecure bully with a Napoleon
complex. Mendes desperately wants to be
loved; that is why he has repeatedly said, “a lot of people want to see me
destroy Conor McGregor”, and why he begged Jose Aldo to lend him his fans. Mendes is trying to convince himself that he is a hero to the masses, and that people are coming to
watch him KO McGregor. The truth is that nobody besides
hardcore MMA fans cares about Chad Mendes, while Conor McGregor is on ESPN and late night talk shows, signing endorsement deals, getting love from U2, and getting walked to the Octagon by Sinead O'Connor.
Mendes’ nickname is ‘Money’, which is what he will be
getting only because his opponent is Conor McGregor. The only other fighter with the nickname of
‘Money’, Floyd Mayweather, has the McGregor effect on his opponents. They are jealous of the wealth, start to hate him, and promise
to teach him a lesson in respect and humility.
For a guy like Chad Mendes who has done everything the right way
athletically in his career, it is unnerving to see that despite his talent,
despite his wrestling and MMA achievements, he is merely there to serve as an
opponent for the guy everyone came to see.
For all of the accolades that Mendes has received in his career,
he has no pay-per-view (PPV) drawing power.
In his second clash with Jose Aldo (Aldo won the first by KO in the
first round), the fight lasted 25 minutes and both men had success on
offense. It was considered a match of
the year candidate, and yet drew only 180,000 PPV buys, one
of the lowest numbers in the UFC’s modern era.
Conor McGregor has made Chad Mendes famous in the past two weeks,
something Mendes never could have done on his own, even if he had beaten Aldo
and become champion.
For all of his braggadocio, McGregor is nothing if not honest. During their conference call, after Mendes
said that he was going to beat McGregor because people want to see him do it,
McGregor correctly told him that Chad is only here to be part of the McGregor
Show. Some people might be turned off
by his brashness, but his words are accurate.
Conor is the reason this show has a $7.1 million live gate (UFC’s
highest ever total in the United States), as well as the reason the show is
trending upwards of 1 million pay-per-view buys. Chad is there to be sacrificed.
Believing Your Own Hype
At yesterday’s pre-fight press conference, Chad described
himself as hitting “like Mike Tyson”.
I’m afraid that the Californian has bought into his hype a bit too
much. Of Mendes’ 17 wins, 7 have come by
way of KO/TKO. By contrast, of
McGregor’s 17 wins, 15 have come by KO/TKO (the other two wins were a
submission and a decision after he tore his ACL and couldn’t put weight on his
leg). McGregor has knocked out
successful 155 pounders, while Mendes looks like he could easily make 135. Chad further called McGregor
“one-dimensional”, which appears false based upon the times Conor has either
dominated fights on the ground.
Examples of this grappling acumen have manifested themselves
throughout McGregor’s career. In the second
and third rounds of his fight against Max Holloway, when, after tearing his
ACL, McGregor switched from dominating the Hawaiian on the feet (one judge
scored the first round 10-8) to doing so on the ground, and did so more
successfully than more acclaimed wrestlers that Holloway fought, most notably
Dennis Bermudez (to whom Holloway lost a split-decision). The grappling skills were also on display
against Dave Hill, a noted submission fighter with 9 submission wins to his
name, and only one submission loss, that coming against McGregor. In that fight McGregor floored his British
opponent twice with head kicks, but the pugnacious Englishman kept coming
forward to close the distance and grapple with ‘Notorious’. Unfortunately for Hill, he was outclassed on
the ground, and after numerous McGregor guard passes, Conor finally choked Hill
out. In McGregor’s fight against Dennis
Siver, the German fighter several times shot in for a takedown, getting deep on
McGregor’s hips because Conor was in full-on attack mode. None of Siver’s attempts turned into anything
besides Conor being on the mat for less than a second, bouncing up, and freeing
himself to continue the onslaught.
On the Feet
Chad Mendes has made tremendous strides as a striker. He has gone from a guy who was purely a
takedown bulldozer, to a guy who has KO power and knows how to use it. That being said, he is still badly outmatched
on the feet in this fight. Not only does
McGregor have an 8-9 inch reach advantage and a 3-4 inch height advantage (to
say nothing of leg length), he also covers distance with a grace and rapidity
that is rare in MMA. His footwork is
stellar, a product of his amateur boxing experience. His head movement is better than any MMA
fighter I can think of besides Anderson Silva.
He has great balance and flexibility, leading to kicks that nobody else
in MMA throws. Mendes has made several
petty comments about Conor’s yoga training; at one point he asked if Conor’s
plan on the ground was to do the splits on top of him, and he made a separate
reference about this being a fight, not a yoga class. Chad made these comments because he is a
meathead wrestler. Being Urijah Faber’s
protégé, training at a Napoleon complex-themed gym called “Team Alpha Male”
(only in that gym are alpha males all 5’6 or below), and being a wrestler mean
that Mendes is by nature going to mock and deride non-conventional training
forms.
I have seen Mendes’ athleticism; he is incredibly strong,
quick, and explosive. He is not however
loose-limbed or flexible. Conor knows
that Mendes’ only offense on the feet will come in the form of punches and low
kicks. By comparison Mendes will have to
face side kicks, hook kicks, kicks to the knee, jumping knees, punches,
roundhouse kicks, front kicks, spinning kicks, and knee thrusts when Chad tries
to close the (considerable) range. For
all the talk of how Chad has great punching power, let’s be serious here. Conor is the much larger man and packs a much
larger punch. Chad looked great with his
hands against Aldo because Jose just stood in place and traded. McGregor does not operate in that
manner. He controls space and timing,
seems to always get his lead foot outside his opponent’s lead foot, and has an
iron chin. Further, he throws straight
punches, whereas Chad’s bombs come from closer in.
One fight that sounds odd to mention but may be instructive
was the bout between Mendes and Clay Guida.
Unlike McGregor, Guida has no skills whatsoever on the feet, no
athleticism, no trickery, and lacks one-punch KO power. What Guida does do, like McGregor (albeit in
an entirely different manner), is move around a lot and control the
distance. Guida struggled to hit Mendes
because of his lack of speed and technique, but for the first two rounds of the
fight, Chad barely hit Guida because of ‘The Carpenter’ and his unusual
movement. If Mendes has trouble finding
a guy with no speed, limited power, and no ability to cut angles or maneuver
his opponent, what will he do with a guy like McGregor?
Hendo vs Anderson, Redux?
When it comes to a white American wrestler with a big right
hand against an arrogant (in fighting style—Anderson didn’t however talk trash
like McGregor) foreigner with striking skills beyond what an MMA fighter is
supposed to have, the closest matchup I can think of is Anderson Silva vs Dan
Henderson. The knock on Silva going into
that fight was that he had never faced a top-level wrestler. Pundits said Henderson, with his
Olympic-alternate level wrestling skills and punching power, would overwhelm
Silva. Of course, the opposite
occurred. After a round of ineffectual
lay n pray by TRT Dan, in the second stanza Silva opened up with strikes, dropping
the acclaimed wrestler before choking him out.
One could make the case that Mendes is a mini version of Henderson, and
that McGregor is a smaller version of Anderson (but with Chael Sonnen’s mouth
and an even greater ability to deliver KOs---Anderson has 20 KO wins in 40
career fights, while Conor has 15 in 20 career fights).
