Lessons Learned One-Quarter into the Season
J4G deployed its most handsome correspondent to
Africa several months ago, and subsequently has been short-staffed. However
despite these personnel-related limitations, we would never want to disappoint
our target demographic (incredibly clever and good-looking basketball fans) by
failing to produce text now that we are well into the NBA season.
A part of me didn't even want to see this season
occur; how could a blog named after Manu Ginobili ever top the storybook
results of last season's Finals? The odds suggest that nothing will be
able to match the emotional high that was last season’s result, namely good
triumphing over evil. I can't recall a more compelling
storybook ending than what happened in the Finals last season, in any
sport. The old guys, so close to victory in 2013, who lost in the
cruelest way imaginable, came back, one year older, deflated but not deterred,
still demanding to face their conquerors from the previous year. The
Spurs didn’t just want to win the title last year; they wanted revenge. That
revenge came in such a lopsided series that it almost seemed too good to be
true. Tiago Splitter, who in the 2013 Finals was so bad that he
seemed to waste every single layup attempt (culminating in LeBron James stealing his
soul), epitomized the team’s redemptive transformation through his own soul-crushing
block of 56-year old Dwayne Wade in the 2014 Finals.
Of course, there was a certain Argentine who
also sought redemption. In 2013, Ginobili looked bad; his legendary
ball handling skills seemed to have gone the way of Mitt Romney’s presidential
bid, his first step was gone, and his shot was off. Instead of a guy
making 8 amazing plays and 2 bad plays a game, the ratio was inverted. He
seemed to physically be broken, on his last legs, and with shaken
confidence. In 2014 however, Manu appeared to be himself
again. Sure, he doesn’t have the speed he had 10 years ago, but he
is still the most creative passer in basketball, and entirely unguardable on
pick and rolls. Manu's reputation as a fearless, athletic clutch shooter and pickpocket
is well known, but his intangibles are what make him so special. Ginobili
has an innate ability to understand the big moments; when his team really needs
a play, he seems to always find a way to get a deflection, get into the lane,
draw a foul, etc.
In the 2014 Finals, Manu was the protagonist,
hitting 3s, driving, getting steals, and dropping dimes. The most
memorable moment of the Finals came on the sequence when Manu forced Chris Bosh
into retirement via dunking
on his soul, then came back the next possession and hit a step-back 3 with
mere seconds remaining on the shot clock, a shot which extinguished all hope
that Heat players had for a comeback. When Manu came into the
game in Game 5, the Spurs were getting destroyed; it was as if they had already
checked out and were visualizing their victory parade, rather than closing out
the best basketball player of his generation. Ginobili quickly went
on a 6 point run to get San Antonio back into the game, then went on an 8 point
run at the end of the second quarter to break Miami’s spirit. From
that point on, the game was a total blowout; the Spurs at one point went on a
59-22 run en route to their much-deserved title.
So that brings us to the present day; it is time
to evaluate this season’s biggest competitors to the throne, and the most
embarrassing teams in the Association.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
A young team with a surly and brilliant point
guard, a rookie pit bull of a backup point guard, a smorgasbord of
unconventional bigs, a high scoring small forward, and a defensive stopper of a
combo guard.
Rajon Rondo is a unique talent; despite his
diminutive stature, he is two rebounds and one point per game shy of averaging
a triple double. Rondo is also a passing savant with Ginobili-esque
floor vision, and completes passes and dribble moves that most other players
don’t even dare to attempt. Rondo and Steve Nash share the same
basketball brain; the only difference is that the former is a great athlete and
a mediocre shooter, while the latter is (was) a mediocre athlete and one of the
greatest shooters in NBA history.
So far this season, Boston has been positively
mediocre, and I say that as a good thing. Although the Celtics lack
a true number one scoring option (Jeff Green should only be a team’s premier
scorer in the D-League or Europe), the team has been competitive. Between
Kelly Olynyk shooting lights out from the field and from the three-point line,
and Jared Sullinger (and his four-inch vertical leap) living at the free throw
line, the Celtics have proved to be as feisty as their leader, the aforementioned
Rondo. The rumors of trading Rondo are inevitable, as there is a
theory in the NBA that it is better to be terrible rather than mediocre; I can
only hope Boston realizes that they will not find anyone as good as Rondo, and
that hitching one’s wagons to draft prospects is an incredibly risky bet.
Brooklyn Nets
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
The 2005 All-Star team of Deron Williams, KG,
Kirilenko, and Joe Johnson returns. Last year the Nets swept Miami
in the regular season, but fell short in the playoffs. This year’s
iteration of the Nets is one year older and slower, but adds an exciting piece
in the form of Bojan Bogdanovic. If Brook Lopez can miraculously
stay healthy, this team will be a tough out in the playoffs, if they make it
that far.
One of the big surprises this season is how
little coach Lionel Hollins is playing Mason Plumlee. After the Duke
star’s stellar run with the national team, one would expect him to play more
than 15 minutes a game on a team with a broken big (Lopez) and a 60 year old
big (KG) ahead of him on the depth chart. Alas, it has not been the
case. Hollins has elected to play Mirza Teletovic at power forward
in an attempt to give the team more spacing. Teletovic has played
fairly well (shooting 35% from three-point range), but does not provide the
defense, rebounding, rim protection, or finishing ability of Plumlee.
New York Knicks
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
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| There's only one J.R. Smith (thankfully). |
Carmelo Anthony and his team-killing ways return
to the Big Apple after flirting with leaving NYC to pursue other opportunities,
including playing with fellow team-killer Kobe Bryant. Luckily for
devoted NBA fans, Carmelo, JR, Amare, and the whole gang are back in Madison
Square Garden, where endless chucking, mean-mugging the referee, and terrible
defense will be commonplace. I am personally looking forward to
seeing the Knicks trot out a lineup of Amare, Bargnani, Carmelo, JR, and Jose
Calderon; between the five of them, there will not be a single attempted
box-out over the course of a game (but if they are all healthy, that will be a
hell of a scoring team).
So far the Knicks have been bad; not a
surprising result for a team with JR Smith and a new offensive system. New
York is allowing opponents to shoot more than 50% from the field, and roughly
38% from three-point land, while ranking 27th in the league in
points scored per game. On the bright side, at 4-17, the Knicks are
well placed to make a playoff push in the barren wasteland that is the Eastern
Conference (I’m being serious; the Knicks are only 5.5 games out of 8th place). One
feel good story coming out of Madison Square Garden is that Amare Stoudamire is
having somewhat of a renaissance season, averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per
game. This is definitely a team worth watching on League Pass,
mostly for the laughs.
Philadelphia 76ers
Chances of winning the 2015
NCAA championship: 4%:
 |
| The worst team ever assembled. |
This may very well be the worst team in the
history of the NBA, and I am not exaggerating. The awful good
people of Philadelphia deserve this better.
Toronto Raptors
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 1%:
The Raptors are shockingly the best team in the
conference so far this season. They are winning by an average of
almost 9 points per game, and seem destined to have home court advantage for at
least two rounds of the playoffs. The Raptors don’t turn the ball
over (ranking second in the league in turnovers lost), and are tied for 8th for
turnovers forced. This is a team with balance, depth, gritty
defenders, a great leader in Kyle Lowry, and a legitimate number one scorer in
the rapidly improving (though currently injured) DeMar DeRozan.
Despite all that, I’m not a believer in this
team’s playoff success this season. They are still far too green,
and have no proven postseason winners. Perhaps more importantly, the
Raptors’ defense has been subpar. The team is allowing exactly 100
points per game, and allowing a higher percentage from the three-point line
than is usual from a title contender (the team ranks 22nd in
three-point shooting percentage allowed and 18th in points per
game allowed). I see a second-round exit in the cards for the
Raptors.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 10%
As is always the case with the Bulls, the team
will go as Derrick Rose goes. The hyper-athletic point guard with
the fragile knees/legs will determine if the Bulls coast to the Conference
Finals, or find themselves struggling to advance in the playoffs. The
addition of Pau Gasol has been huge for the Bulls; they have a legitimate low
post scorer now, a 7-footer who can rebound, block shots, pass, and
shoot. If Gasol and Rose are healthy in the playoffs, this team will
be the favorite in the Eastern Conference. Between Gasol, Noah, and
Gibson, the Bulls have possibly the best rotation of bigs in the NBA, and the
bench has been fortified by Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic.
Jimmy Butler has been outstanding this season,
somehow averaging more than 20 points per game despite being quite limited with
the ball. Having bigs who can pass and score in the post opens opportunities,
apparently. As a fan of basketball, it is hard not to root for
Derrick Rose to be able to stay healthy so we can see how good he really
is. One surprise for this team so far has been how mediocre they
have been on defense. The Bulls are allowing 99.9 points per game
and do not look like the dominating defensive bunch we are accustomed to. That
can be partially attributed to the loss of Luol Deng, and partially to the
addition of several new players who are playing heavy minutes.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 20%
The struggles of the Cavaliers so far this
season are well documented; LeBron is over 30 now, Kevin Love (like Stella)
hasn’t found his groove yet, and Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters seem
immature. All that being said, the Cavs are 11-7, winners of six
games in a row. Cleveland’s up and down play would be a cause for
concern for most teams, but most teams don’t have the best player of his
generation.
In my humble opinion, it would not necessarily
be a bad thing to get rid of Irving to bring in a pass-first veteran point
guard (hello Rondo!), and to get rid of Waiters, who, by all accounts, is a
locker room nightmare. As Chris Bosh predicted, Kevin Love is
clearly frustrated by a lack of touches, but the recent winning streak seems to
have cured what ailed him as it pertains to pouting to the media.
There had been talk of unspoken tension between
LeBron and coach Blatt, but that seems to be behind them now. Winning
is indeed a panacea.
The odds suggest that the Cavs recent success
will not be followed by more losing streaks; this team simply has too much
talent to not figure it out. After a season of playing together and
learning each other’s nuances, what team would want to go against a crunch time
lineup of Irving, Marion, LeBron, Love, and Varejao?
Detroit Pistons
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
 |
| Another brick. |
Poor Stan Van Gundy. A team whose
three best players play the same position, and none of them can shoot. Good
luck with that. Greg Monroe’s contract situation looms over
the team, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see a trade made to clear the
front court logjam.
Indiana
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
Whoever said that coaching doesn’t matter needs
to watch the gritty Pacers. Without superstar Paul George, without
the mercurial Lance Stephenson, with no David West until recently, and with
George Hill sidelined with a knee injury, the Pacers are only 6 games under
.500, amazingly. This is a team that, on talent alone, may not be
favored to win the Euroleague, but they play smart, defend the three-point
line, rebound well, and compete hard. This team may even make the
playoffs, unbelievably.
Milwaukee
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
Before the season, this was considered a team to
watch in the future, but here we are, 21 games into the season, and Milwaukee
is above .500 and seems on its way to a playoff berth. The Greek
Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo,
has shown the kind of absurd ceiling which makes him so sought after by rival
GMs; his length, ball skills, and feel for the game make him a unique
talent. Jabari Parker has played well in his rookie campaign,
leading all rookies in scoring and ranking second in rebounding.
The real star of the team however is Brandon
Knight. The young point guard has been the catalyst for the team’s
success, averaging 18 points per game, shooting over 40% from three-point
range, and swiping more than a steal and a half per game.
In other positive news for the Bucks, Larry
Sanders has managed to stay out of prison, and has returned to his rebounding, shot blocking, and
dunking ways. This is a deep young team, and they have a legitimate
chance to win a playoff series.
Southeast Division
Atlanta
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
The Hawks team which managed to make the
playoffs last season is much stronger this season, as Al Horford returns to the
squad after a (second) torn pectoral muscle injury ended his 2013-2014
campaign. The Hawks have bigs in Horford and Millsap who cause
problems for opposing coaches with their range and athleticism, and add to that
mix Kyle Korver (shooting an absolutely mind-boggling 56% from the three-point
line and averaging 1.7 points per shot, third in the NBA) and All-Star level
point guard in Jeff Teague (top 10 in the NBA in points per shot and
assists).
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| I break you. |
What makes this team so difficult to guard is
that they have shooters at every position; even Russian mobster lookalike Pero
Antic can stroke 3s, creating all kinds of driving lanes for Jeff Teague. I
fully expect this team to win a playoff series, but they are a superstar away
from winning a championship.
Charlotte
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
 |
| Lance blows this year. |
Poor Charlotte. This team has
regressed this year, as the squad misses the spacing, shooting, and passing
that Josh McRoberts provided at the power forward spot. This
season’s iteration of the Hornets is dysfunctional; Lance Stephenson has not
proven to be worthy of the hype, and is managing to average barely 10 points
per game despite playing the lion’s share of the minutes at the shooting guard
position. Worse yet, Lance has been horribly inefficient; he is 78th (!) among all shooting guards, averaging an abysmal .94 points per shot. This team has hope despite the sizable regression; Al
Jefferson is still an absolute monster on the low post, and Kemba Walker may be
the quickest point guard in the league. That being said, this
season has been nothing short of a disaster so far.
Miami
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
The Heat have been respectable so far this year;
Luol Deng is doing the best he can in place of LeBron, Chris Bosh looks like a
rejuvenated All-Star, and Mario Chalmers seems to be relaxed and improved
without LeBron there to always remind him of how much he sucks. Shabazz
Napier has proven to be a solid contributor, and as Josh McRoberts’ health
improves, I expect to see him get more minutes. Assuming Wade gets
healthy, this team could win one or even two rounds in the playoffs, but they
are a piece away from being a true contender for the crown.
Orlando
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
As usual, the Magic are bad. That
being said, the team’s future is bright if management can keep the core
together. Nik Vucevic has been excellent, averaging 19 points and 12
rebounds per game; Tobias Harris has been impressive as well, averaging 19 and
8. Even Evan Fournier, the pride of Moroccan French basketball fans everywhere,
has been good offensively, putting up more than 16 points per game. At
the end of the day however, this team is 2 years away from relevancy (that
being said, Orlando is only two games out of the playoffs,
disgracefully).
Washington
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 1%
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| It is always a good thing when a team's starting center is familiar with advanced weaponry. |
My beloved Wizards field perhaps their most
promising team of my lifetime. Not since the days of C-Webb, Juwan,
Rob Strickland, and Muresan have Washington fans had so much to be excited
about (except for the Gilbert Arenas years before he tore his knee and brought
guns to the locker room—people forget how amazing he
was). The Bullets/Wizards of my youth were a sad, mismanaged bunch;
every bad management decision that could happen, did in fact happen. The
Wizards managed to trade away young Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond’s creaky
bones, managed to waste lottery picks on Jan Vesely, Jarvis Hayes, Jared
Jeffries, and overall #1 Kwame Brown, traded the pick that would have been
Ricky Rubio, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, or Ty Lawson to rent Randy Foye and
Mike Miller for a year, and almost had a gunfight in the locker room.
This year’s team fields a stellar starting five;
Gortat is a double-double machine, Nene is a talented and big-bodied bruiser
who can embarrass
even the best of defenders, Paul Pierce is a legend, Bradley Beal is one of
the best young shooting guards in the game, and John Wall has elevated his play
this year. The bench too has been fortified, as Otto Porter has
emerged as a legitimate player, and Kris Humphries and Rasual Butler have given
the Wiz steady play.
It will be a disappointing season for Washington
if they don’t win at least two playoff series. They have the pieces
to be a real contender in the Eastern Conference this year; Wall isn’t a kid
anymore, their frontcourt is solid, and they have shooters, leadership, and
experience. I would say they are one year away from title
consideration, but making the Eastern Conference Finals is very much within
their range of possibilities.
Western Conference
Northwest Division
Portland
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 1%
Poor Portland. If they were in the
East, they would be the odds-on favorite to go to the NBA Finals this
season. Lillard is a year older and wiser, Aldridge is still very
much in his prime, Robin Lopez has shown himself to be a legitimate NBA
starting center, and the bench is much improved. That improvement
has manifested itself in the signings of Chris “White John Salmons” (for his
proclivity to shoot the ball every time he touches it) Kaman, and Steve “B.
Rabbit” Blake (as Kobe Bryant dubbed him, after Eminem’s character in 8
Mile). Kaman has been providing instant offense and rebounding
off the bench; there aren’t many 7-footers with his offensive game; it is quite
a luxury to have a player like that as a 6th man. Blake
has been solid as a pass-first point guard coming off the bench, currently
ranking 15th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, and 12th in
assist-to-turnover ratio.
As things stand in the Western Conference, it is
doubtful that this team will make it to the Finals. Despite the
team’s gaudy 15-4 start, LeMarcus Aldridge is still a guy whose bread and
butter is long two-pointers, and who doesn’t get to the line enough for someone
who shoots as often as he does. He is simply not good enough to be
the best player on a team that wins a championship.
Utah/Minnesota/Denver
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
There was a time not too many seasons ago, when
Denver looked like a legitimate title contender. They had Andre
Iguodala, a healthy offensive machine in Danilo Gallinari, a quick and strong
point guard in Ty Lawson, 10 guys who could play, and the best home court
advantage in the league due to the altitude. Oh, how times
change. Gallo is finally back from tearing his ACL (at least in
form, but not in function), Iguodala is gone, but the depth and Ty Lawson
remain. In the East Denver could be a playoff team; in the West,
unless Gallo miraculously heals, they will be on the outside looking in when
the NBA’s second season starts.
Utah is bad; they have some nice pieces in
Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, but their guard play has been subpar, and
the team generally seems young and immature. Stockton and Malone are
not coming out of that dressing room any time soon.
Minnesota is the Philadelphia of the Western
Conference. Between losing Kevin Love and the injuries to Kevin
Martin, Nikola Pekovic, and Ricky Rubio, there are more people on this team who
get carded buying alcohol than there are people who have played meaningful NBA
minutes. They will be horrible, but Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine
are both promising youngsters, and we have yet to find out if former #1 overall
pick Anthony Bennett, obtained in the Kevin Love trade, is anything to write
home about.
OKC
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 1%
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| Kendrick ponders how he has managed to stay in the league for so many years without any discernible skills. |
Hard to rate this team’s chances; now that
Westbrook and Durant have come back from injuries, the Thunder will be a
handful for anyone. The question is, did OKC dig itself too deep of
a hole to get out of? Certainly if this team were in the Eastern
Conference, a slow start wouldn’t matter, but in the West, where only 4 teams
are more than a game below .500, the Thunder’s catch-up distance may be too
great. The race for the 8th spot in the Western
Conference will be between OKC (currently 7 games below .500), New Orleans and
Denver (each one game below .500), Sacramento (1 game over .500), and Phoenix
(currently 4 games above .500). The other 7 spots are reserved for
teams currently above .700, namely San Antonio, Memphis, Houston, Dallas, LAC,
Portland, and Golden State.
Southwest Division
San Antonio
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 40%
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| Yes we can! |
The toughest team for the Spurs in the playoffs
over the last half-decade has been the Thunder; they are too athletic, too
young, and too long for the Spurs, or at least they were. In the
playoffs last year, with Serge Ibaka missing the first two games due to a calf
injury, the Spurs won both contests and seemed on their way to a sweep. When
Ibaka made a Willis Reedesque return in game 3, the Thunder won two straight
and tied the series against the Spurs 2-2. Rightfully, San Antonio
fans had terrible memories of the series they lost two seasons earlier to the
Thunder, when they similarly went up 2-0 and seemed unstoppable, only to lose 4
straight to the upstarts from Oklahoma. However the Spurs were not
deterred, and won the next two contests (with Ibaka playing) to take the series
4-2. The rest is history. This year, it seems the Thunder
won’t even make the playoffs, which is good news for the Spurs. The
rest of the Western Conference is even better than it was last year,
strangely. Houston, Portland, Memphis are 15-4, Golden State is
16-2, Dallas is 15-6, and the Clippers are “only” on pace for 59 wins.
The Spurs started slowly, but are starting to
shake off the cobwebs. Ginobili spent the offseason recovering from
a broken leg, and has been uneven this season, but appears to be rounding into
form. The Spurs have already beaten Dallas, Golden State, Cleveland,
Memphis, and the Clippers; their only loss by more than 5 points was in the
third game of the season against the Rockets, and the team seems more coherent
now than then. The Spurs have won 9 of their last 10, with the sole
defeat coming in a trap game against the Nets in New Jersey.
The Spurs are still missing Tiago Splitter and
Patty Mills, and Kawhi Leonard has been suffering from an eye injury which has
limited his effectiveness. The Spurs additionally continue to rest
Ginobili and Duncan on the second night of back-to-back games despite the
exigency of obtaining home court advantage in the playoffs. Tony Parker’s
recently tweaked hamstring would be cause for concern for most teams, but the
Spurs offense runs like a Rolex and won’t miss many beats without the blur from
France. In sum, the Spurs will keep rumbling along even with
their backups, and will hope that their main cogs are healthy for the
playoffs. If they are, San Antonio will likely hoist a 6th championship
banner to the rafters in June.
Houston
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 3%
.jpg) |
| The look of a champion? |
I have a hard time viewing Houston as a serious
title contender. I don’t care what Houston’s record is, I just don’t
see a team starring James Harden, one of the worst defensive players in
basketball, winning a title. Dwight Howard’s knee has been acting up
as well, and without him, this team has no chance to win the
championship. On the other hand, assuming Howard’s knee holds up,
this team features two GREAT defenders in Howard and Patrick Beverley, an above
average defender and shooter in Trevor Ariza, and quality role players in Jason
Terry and Montiejunas.
A big problem for the Rockets in the playoffs is
that teams adjust to Harden’s foul-seeking ways, as do referees. The
absurd calls he gets in the regular season, when he just throws himself into
defenders and initiates contact, do not exist to the same degree in the
playoffs. Similarly, opposing defenders become more adept at showing
the referees that they aren’t doing anything to Harden except backing
away.
Dallas
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 4%
Seeing Tyson Chandler back on the Mavericks
makes it hard not to wonder what if. What if Mark Cuban had bitten
the bullet, re-signed Chandler, and paid the luxury tax. Would the
Mavericks have won another title? We will never know. What
we do know is that this may be the best offensive team in the NBA. Between
Dirk commanding double teams from every spot on the floor, Monta Ellis’ speed,
handle and finishing ability, and newly-added Chandler Parsons’ ability to
shoot, pass, and finish, the Mavericks give opposing defenses no room to
rest. With Tyson Chandler and Brandon Wright seemingly finishing
everything (both shooting absurdly over 70% from the field!), and with quality
point guard play from the three-headed monster of Devin Harris, J.J. Barea, and
Jameer Nelson, the Mavericks have a wealth of offensive talent. This
team gave the Spurs their hardest series in the playoffs last year, and this
year’s version of Dallas is much improved.
Memphis
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 4%
I must confess that after my beloved Wizards and
Ginobili and friends, this is my favorite team in the Association. Marc
Gasol has further established himself as the best center in the game. He
has always been an excellent passer and defender, but this year he has become a
more aggressive offensive player as well. The question is, does the
improvement in Gasol’s game provide enough of a boost to help the Grizzlies
finally get by the Spurs? Last year in the playoffs, the NBA
suspended Gasol’s partner in crime, Zach Randolph, for the decisive game 7
against the Thunder. Conspiracy theorists say that the league
suspended Randolph so as to preserve the NBA’s wet dream of a Durant vs LeBron
Finals rematch. If Randolph had played, I suspect the Grizzlies
would have beaten the Thunder. Alas, what if doesn’t change
reality. As it currently stands, Memphis’ reality is something to be
envied.
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| Incidental contact, clearly. |
This team has the best big man combination in
the game, an elite wing defender in Tony Allen, and a quality starting point
guard in Mike Conley. The question facing this team is whether the
wing play of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Quincy Pondexter, Vince Carter’s corpse,
and that of Tayshaun Prince will be enough to overcome the other wings in the
Western Conference. In whom would you place your trust: Ginobili
and Leonard or Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter? Tayshaun and Vince
or Iguodala and Klay Thompson? Any two Memphis wings against Harden
and Ariza? Monta Ellis and Parsons? Durant and
anyone? Wesley Matthews and the French Swiss army knife, Nic
Batum? Among the 7 Western Conference teams above .700, only the
Clippers’ wings are as mediocre as those of Memphis. Time will tell
if this lack of exceptional play on the outside will prevent Memphis from going
from a very good team to a great one.
New Orleans
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
Let me get this down on e-paper: Anthony Davis
is the best basketball player alive not named LeBron James, at least until we
know if Kevin Durant is 100% back from injury. He deserves to be MVP
this year, and it isn’t close. He leads the NBA in PER, leads the
league in blocks AND steals, and is third in points per game and sixth in
rebounds. Otherwise, this team is mediocre. Tyreke Evans,
for all his ball skills, always seems to be on bad teams, and at some point
there is no point in denying that he is part of the problem rather than part of
the solution. Eric Gordon was on his way to being a star before a
knee injury took away his athleticism, and despite several years of rehab, he
is not what he was, and doesn’t appear that he will ever return to his previous
form. Jrue Holiday is a solid starting point guard and Omer
Asik is a great rebounder and defender, but the team just seems to be lacking
something. Ryan Anderson is shooting a meager 33% from 3, down from
his career mark of 38.3%. Davis’ singular greatness has kept this
team from the depths of despair. There aren’t many players in the
history of the game who have his combination of size, athleticism, ball skills,
defensive intensity, and feel for the game. He is more important to
his team than any other player in the league. Unfortunately, it is
not enough for this group of ill-fitting pieces.
Pacific Division
Los Angeles Lakers
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
 |
| Karma. |
I will be honest: I have really enjoyed watching
Kobe’s team suck. He is one of the most overrated players in NBA
history, fortunate to have played with some of the best bigs in NBA history at
their absolute primes, and the beneficiary of some questionable officiating and
absolutely absurd collapses. Between Shaq (who, in his prime was one
of the 5 best players of all-time), Gasol (who, let’s not forget, should never
have been with the Lakers, and wound up on the team due to Memphis’ absolutely
absurd trade of Pau for Kwame Brown), the screwjob in Sacramento when the
referees blatantly cheated to give the Lakers a victory they did not deserve,
and Portland’s epic meltdown, Kobe should probably have one title (to say
nothing of Derek Fisher’s game-winner against the Spurs). Instead,
he has 5, and idiots like to say he is something like Michael Jordan. Wrong. He
is not even in the same stratosphere as Jordan. Kobe is a guy who
alienates all his teammates, with whom nobody wants to play, a guy who cares nothing
at all about his team’s success, and shoots his team out of game after
game.
Kobe’s scoring average may be exceptionally high
this season, but he is shooting only 39% and taking 22 shots a game (the
highest total in the league by 3 shots per game), many of those shots being
long, well-defended fade away jumpers. He is the
quintessential volume scorer; the defanged, self-proclaimed Black Mamba is
averaging an abysmal 1.15 points per shot, which ranks him 45rd in the NBA….among
shooting guards!
Los Angeles Clippers
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 5%
The Clippers have 2 of the best 10 players in
the league; that alone makes them contenders. The supporting cast
was bolstered this offseason with the addition of Spencer Hawes, who provides
needed spacing and shooting from the center position. The team’s
weaknesses are well known; their wing players are mediocre, DeAndre Jordan
can’t shoot from more than 4 feet away from the basket or make free throws, and
Chris Paul doesn’t seem to have the Isiah (not a misspelling) Thomas ability to
take over playoff games from the point guard position. Blake Griffin
is putting up 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, but in the
playoffs, when there is less fast breaking, his half court game will be put to
the test (again). Unless he can go from top 10 to top 3, this team
won’t win a title.
Phoenix
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
This is a fun team to watch, but there is
clearly tension in the desert. The team’s 3 best players, Goran
Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas, all play the same position. There
simply isn’t enough ball to go around. Gerald Green can jump out of
the gym and shoots lots of corner 3s, but otherwise provides nothing. Miles
Plumlee is a good rebounder and defender who can similarly jump out of the gym,
but he is limited. The Morris twins are solid contributors, but neither
will ever be an All-Star. This team’s likely result is a first
round exit, followed by the departure of one of their three point guards in the
offseason.
Sacramento Kings
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 0%
DeMarcus Cousins has gone from an overly
emotional young man who can play to a great player who is a bit
emotional. That is an important distinction. His
maturation has led this team to the precipice of a playoff berth, no small feat
in the uber-competitive Western Conference. He is third
in the NBA in PER, and has turned into the dominant bull that many thought
he was capable of becoming. Rudy Gay has played better than expected
this year; he has shed his volume shooter moniker, and is shooting a very
respectable 46.3% from the field. The loss of Isaiah Thomas hasn’t
hurt this team much, it seems. Darren Collison has been a quality
replacement, and Ben McLemore has turned into a legitimate NBA rotation
player. Omri Casspi (SHALOM!!) has returned to his ancestral
homeland of Sacramento and has delivered stellar bench play; the team would be
wise to give him and fellow stellar sub Carl “The Truth” Landry more
minutes. Unfortunately for this team, the absolute ceiling on how
far they can go is first round defeat. Don’t hang your heads though,
Sacramento fans, as the Kings are definitely on the upswing.
Golden State Warriors
Chances of winning the 2015
championship: 10%
This team has it all. Steph Curry has
morphed into a truly great player; a guy who can shoot off the dribble from
anywhere on the court, who has also turned into a halfway decent defender and a
passer with above-average floor vision. His shooting is so off the
charts that he finds himself being run off the three-point line and into the
paint quite frequently. Luckily for the Warriors, Curry has
developed a nice in between game, and is a clever finisher at the rim. Klay
Thompson has gotten more consistent with age; the days of him scoring 25 one
game and 7 the next game seem a thing of the past. Harrison Barnes
has settled into his role of being a hyper-athletic shooter and defender quite
nicely; Draymond Green’s ascension to starting power forward while David Lee
has been injured has proved most successful; he gives the team a physical,
defensive presence, and a floor spacer; a rare combination indeed. The
angry Australian, Andrew Bogut, provides a physical presence, a rim protector
(fourth in the league in blocks), an excellent rebounder (14th in
the league in rebounds), and a guy who sets some of the meanest screens in the
Association.
When David Lee comes back to fill a 6th man
role (something he isn’t accustomed to—this is a guy who has averaged 18 points
and 9 rebounds 4 different seasons), with former All-Star Andre Iguodala as the
7th man and passing wizard Shaun Livingston at the backup point
guard, this team will be downright scary. All that being said, I
still believe this team is a year away. Bogut is their only true big
man, and if he gets into foul trouble, the likes of Marreese Speights will have
to guard Tim Duncan and Marc Gasol. Additionally, the Warriors are
still a bit too reliant on Steph Curry’s three-point shootings. In
the playoffs the openings get smaller, and the game becomes much more
physical. As great as Curry is, he is only about 175 pounds, and
will be on the receiving end of a constant pounding from bigger
defenders. What will this team turn to if the threes don’t
fall? Time will tell.
