An Ode in Poem Form to LeBron, Game 7, and the NBA.

Three big cheers for LeBron,
whose dealings with Cleveland were wrong.
He couldn't win on his own,
and thus made Miami his home.
With two max players beside him,
the Heat are truly frightenin.
Unlike MJ, Kobe, Magic, Larry, and West,
LeBron decided to switch the logo on his chest.
He needed more help, he's no Rick Barry,
he needed his crab dribble, he needed to carry,
mostly he wanted Wade, to be his new daddy. 

With veterans coming to Miami from across the nation,
the Heat's roster depth was truly amazin.
Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Battier and Bird,
Helped get LeBald his 2nd ring, and Wade his third. 
Even though Bosh put up a goose egg in game 7,
the Heat still reached basketball heaven.
With Batti-flop hitting every 3,
and a late turnover from Ginobili,
in a game in which Duncan had no luck,
it was hard not to scream "fuck"! 

Seeing Danny Green miss all but one shot,
and the Spurs' season become all for naught,
was a sickening feeling, with which I was imbued; 
Parker had no lift, Splitter had no clue,
and as per usual, Neal knew not what to do. 
Manu the Great, did bounce back,
hitting 3s, dropping dimes, and going rack.
Kawhi Leonard showed great capacity,
rebounding, dunking, and defending with tenacity.
If a second competent big, the Spurs do obtain,
then next year they shall, end the King's reign.
As Wade grows older and Bosh's role doth diminish,
The Artifical Big 3 era, shall soon be finished.

My dear hoopheads, have no fear,
for all 3, can opt out after next year.
For LeBald a chance to go home and find redemption,
for Bosh a chance to be a star and get more attention.
What of the Birdman, without whom the Heat wouldn't have made the Finals,
will he be back in Miami, or return to his drug vials?

Around the league, more questions than answers,
will Dwight leave LA, or stay with Laker Girl dancers?
What of Chris Paul, the great overrated,
loved by fans, but by his teammates, hated. 
Will Ginobili retire or come back for one last run,
I hope the latter, the Spurs are so much fun.
Will Garnett be a Clipper, and bring Rivers with him,
or retire to Malibu, his fire now missin.

Regardless of what shall occur,
my views on the NBA shall not blur.
I hate the league, I hate the referees,
I honestly think there is bribery.
It is hard not to be a skeptic,
when two clear calls at the end of game 6 were neglected. 
That being said, my eyes wander not,
because nothing beats, a buzzer-beating jump shot.


SPURS IN 2014!!

FUCK

So close...so far.

Spurs should have won the game.  Duncan missed a lot of easy shots around the rim, including the backbreaker that would have tied it at 92 (with Battier on him, no less).  Parker was terrible, Green was 1-12 (apparently he left his shooting prowess at the airport in San Antonio), Neal was terrible, and Manu had a horrid turnover at the end that will likely overshadow what was a very solid game, 18 points on 12 shots (50% shooting) and 5 assists.  I have no idea why Popovich stuck with Green for so long; Danny has no off the dribble game, is allergic to 2 point makes, got repeatedly trapped in the corner, and was abused by a host of Miami players, including the generally awful Mario Chalmers.  In my opinion Diaw should have been given more run; there was a sequence early in the game when it was literally Duncan and 4 guards in, and the Heat got 3 or 4 offensive rebounds on a single play, eventually scoring.  When Green's shot is off, as it was tonight, the Spurs' best chance is Duncan at 5, Diaw at 4, Leonard at 3, Ginobili at 2, and Parker at 1.

The Spurs and their fans will be haunted this off-season, not only by tonight, but of course by the unbelievable loss in game 6.  I can only hope that 1) this loss will motivate the Spurs' players (namely Duncan and Manu) to come back next year (the latter is a free agent and hopefully he will accept a big salary cut), and 2) the Spurs will FINALLY upgrade their fucking bigs.  Tiago Splitter proved himself to be useless against Miami, as did Matt Bonner, and DeJuan Blair hasn't played a meaningful minute since 2010.  Popovich doesn't really trust Diaw, and they have no other bodies.

As for the Heat, what can you say about LeBron?  He is amazing.  The best player since Shaq.  He can guard all 5 positions and is almost always the fastest, strongest, and most athletic player on the court.  The Spurs let him shoot from his hot spot, the 3 point elbow, and he killed them from there.  He also nailed his long 2 pointers, which was really the difference in the game.  The Spurs didn't double enough.  Battier was a monster, filling in the Mike Miller role in the clincher in the Finals last year, when Miller hit 7 3s (Battier hit 6 tonight).  The Heat have so much veteran shooting that even when Miller and Allen struggle mightily (as they did tonight), the Heat can still turn to another proven flopper 3 point marksman.

All in all, a great season, a great playoff season (it is really a different entity entirely), and a wild, emotional, exhausting, and thrilling Finals.

Redemption Song

Hoping to see more of this in game 7.

Game six of the Finals, depending on whether you hate the Heat or love them (not many people are in between), was either the most exhilarating basketball game ever played, or a sickening, Game of Thrones Red Weddingesque example of how cruel the world can be.  Between Manu and Kawhi each missing a foul shot that could have guaranteed victory, to the Bosh offensive rebound with Popovich inexplicably having lifted Duncan from the game, to the two 3s, to Manu's horrid overtime turnover, to the HORRID no-calls in overtime (either of which could have changed the end result), the sequence of events was truly shattering.  I received a text message prematurely celebrating with 20something seconds left in regulation, and I responded, saying don't get happy just yet.  I did that because I didn't want to let my guard down too soon, only to then be devastated by an incredible comeback.  Well, my instincts of doom proved to be accurate.

Once things started going wrong for the Spurs, it was like a snowball going downhill.  After Parker hit two of the most clutch shots of his career (a high note on an otherwise disastrous 6-23 night) and Manu hit 2 free throws, I figured the refs (among them Joey Crawford) would do their best to force a game 7, but that it was still unlikely that the Spurs would miss enough shots and the Heat would have time to close the gap.  I was wrong.

When Popovich lifted Duncan for Boris Diaw, I could feel my eyes bulging in disbelief; this is one of the best players of all time, in the midst of a 30 point, 17 rebound performance.  Duncan, a superb rebounder and a legit 7 footer, taken out of the game to nominally increase perimeter foot speed and allow the Spurs to switch more.  Guess what: in a situation in which the Heat needed 3 pointers, if Duncan pushed up on someone on the perimeter and that person got inside for a layup, it wouldn't have mattered!

After one of Manu's ghastly turnovers led to a Bosh 3 point play on the other end, I started to fear the worst.  Popovich took Manu out, and the Spurs offense sputtered for the next several minutes. When Manu tried to go coast to coast for a layup with seconds left that would have put the Spurs ahead, and was MAULED by Ray Allen, with no foul called, the string of expletives I proffered was enough to make a rapper blush.  When Danny Green was blatantly fouled on his 3 point attempt to tie the game, I similarly was aghast.  Two absolutely terrible no calls that may have decided a championship.  How will the Spurs bounce back?

One would generally assume that a team would be unable to muster an emotional response after coming so close to tasting the ultimate victory, only to have it snatched away by a combination of bad coaching, great shooting, and horrible, possibly fixed, officiating.  However, I don't think the Spurs will no-show mentally; what worries me is how they are physically.  Duncan, Manu, and Tony all logged big minutes, and the body just doesn't heal as fast in the late 30s as it does for younger people.

Two of the Spurs' losses in this series were blowouts; certainly it is not out of the question that they will get absolutely annihilated in LeBron's (underserved, tainted) coronation.  I however do not see that as a likely scenario.  Miami will similarly be on an emotional rollercoaster after Tuesday's events, except the principals on Miami lack the composure of their San Antonio counterparts.  LeBron literally lay on the ground complaining about a no-call for a good 5 seconds while San Antonio was pushing the ball forward.  I expect Miami to start hot tonight, but if the Spurs hang in there and take the lead, the disgraceful fans of Miami (who left early on Tuesday) will quit on the team, and a sense of impending doom will fill the arena.

Miami played wonderfully on Tuesday; Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers all played strong games.  Chalmers, the ultimate barometer, had 20 points on only 11 shots, and the team shot 58% from 3.  Meanwhile, Danny Green's wonderful ride came to a screeching halt, as he was 1-7, going 1-5 from 3 and badly missing floater attempts.  Gary Neal similarly was missing in action, and as previously mentioned, Parker was 6-23.  Then there was Manu.

As an unabashed Ginobilite, these playoffs have been horrible to watch.  I wish I had started this blog 10 years ago, when Manu was not only a savant, but also an amazing athlete.  As these playoffs have progressed, I have kept waiting for Manu to play like Manu, and while it has happened in spurts (his passing throughout the playoffs has been excellent), he just isn't the same guy physically.  What made him so special was his ability to turn the corner on pick and rolls, get into the teeth of the defense, and either finish or make a great pass out.  Now, against a team that has long, athletic, smart bigs, and without his first step, Ginobili is forcing things that aren't there.  I am sure that a guy who plays with the level of emotion and passion as Manu must be feeling absolutely devastated now.  He had 8 turnovers, and seemed often to be a detriment to his team.  How will a Hall of Famer bounce back from such feelings of doubt?

Throughout this series, the Spurs' counter to Miami's trapping of Ginobili on pick and rolls was for Manu to throw the ball to the screener, either Duncan or the horrible Tiago Splitter.  However, given the length and athleticism of Bosh and James, this pass has not always been there--in fact, in game 6, I would estimate Manu had at least 3-4 turnovers (conservatively) just off trying to force a pass to the screener in the pick and roll.  There must be an additional counter.  Whether that involves a third player setting a second screen on the big now chasing Manu, or Duncan setting a proper pick (whereas now, he sets half-ass screens or does not set a screen at all and just slips it), or more movement along the baseline to give Manu another passing option, something has to change.  Miami has figured out the current pick and roll attack.

Frankly, I would like to see the Spurs play through Duncan again from the outset, and use Kawhi as a ball handler on pick and rolls occasionally.  He was primarily guarded by Wade in game 6; if Miami decided to switch the pick and roll, Duncan could get an easy post catch against Wade, and if Miami decided to play soft and go under the pick, Leonard has shown enough consistency with his jumper to make them pay.  Additionally, having Manu off the ball is going to save his legs, and let him find creases in which to get open.

If I could talk to Manu I would tell him several things: 1) don't be a fucking hero every play; 2) you are allowed to shoot midrange jumpers--missed 3s and turnovers both lead to Miami fast breaks, which are anathema to the Spurs' chances; 3) remember that you are Manu fucking Ginobili; no white boy has played like you since Pistol Pete.  At your best, you legitimately could have been called the best player on Earth (2004 Olympic MVP, 2005 season robbed of Finals MVP).  Don't lose your confidence in your midrange shot, don't make hero passes when Bosh or LeBron are around, attack pick and rolls, stop falling down on defense attempting to draw fouls, and remember that you are an absolutely clutch assassin.  You are a true champion; you dominated Europe, you led the first squad to beat the US basketball team in the Olympics in decades, and you have repeatedly shown how clutch and magical you are.  I believe in you.

Champion.  

How a Chubby Frenchman Saved the Alamo

Boris Diaw, hero.  I never expected to write those words.  Obviously, Manu Ginobili was the story in game 5, but Boris Diaw was the difference in the game.  The same Boris Diaw who was cut by the Bobcats, aka the worst team in professional sports.  Michael Jordan, almost as terrible of a front office guy as he was great as a player, couldn't find a way to utilize a 6'9 guy who has point guard skills, rebounds, can guard most 3s and 4s (as well as some 2s and 5s), and who has a high basketball IQ.

Gregg Popovich, who seems to always escape criticism when things go wrong and always receive praise when he gets it right, didn't play Diaw much until game 5.  Instead, he turned to the egregiously bad, but hard-working and tall Tiago Splitter (aka The Walking Turnover aka Mr. Blown Dunk aka Mr. Can't Finish).  Splitter so far in this series has bungled at least 10 layups and dunks; he can't catch or hold onto the ball or finish.  Just awful.  Regardless, Popovich finally got it right, albeit unintentionally.  Previous to Miami's choice to go small in game 5, Popovich was using the rail-thin Danny Green as the primary defender on LeBron when Kawhi Leonard was getting a rest.  LeBron used his 60 pound (conservative estimate) advantage to simply ragdoll Green into the post.  With LeBron playing the 4, Popovich (whose previous brilliant coaching moves in this series included putting Splitter on Wade on the perimeter), finally fed up with Splitter, gave Diaw a shot.  Boris CLACK CLACKED LeBron!  Sure, James still scored 25, but he shot 8-22, and didn't get anything easy against Diaw.  Boris was able to hold his ground in the post, and was able to smartly play angles on the perimeter, preventing LBJ from blowing by him. As an unabashed Ginobili fan (and thus, a Spurs fan), I can only hope that Popovich gives Diaw another extended run.  

As game 6 approaches tonight, questions abound.  Will "genius" Popovich (why would such a "genius" wait so long to start Ginobili, knowing how much better Manu performs while in the starting lineup?) stay with Manu in the starting lineup?  Will Miami take the suddenly ineffectual Mike Miller out of the lineup?  Who would replace him--Battier or Haslem or the recently benched Birdman?  

One thing is for sure about game 6: we will see maximum effort from both squads.  Just as game 5 was a true battle in which Miami never quit despite being down as many as 20 (and looked threatening until the last 2 minutes of the game), tonight will not come down to effort.  The Heat played quite well in game 5; Wade had 25 and 10 assists (albeit on 22 shots), Ray Allen had 21 on only 10 shots, LeBron put up 25-8-6-4, Bosh had 16 points and shot over 60%, the team sizzled from 3 point range (11-23), and Miami had 16 more shots than the Spurs.  In sum, they played their asses off.  The potential x-factor for Miami is Mario Chalmers, who has a penchant for big game performances (and for disappearances).  

As for the Spurs, keeping Ginobili in the starting lineup seems to be a no-brainer.  Having 3 stars on the floor at the same time is too much for any defense to handle, even Miami's stellar and athletic squad.  The Spurs picked the Heat apart with Ginobili's passing and drives, Parker's alpha male drives on Norris Cole, the steady brilliance of Tim Duncan, and the insane outside shooting of Danny Green.  

I expect the determining factor tonight to be the refereeing.  If Joey Crawford is on the floor, the fix is in.  He literally challenged Tim Duncan to fight; how can he be a neutral arbiter?  It is unreal.  If the referees call the game fairly, and Ginobili can stay in the time machine for 1 more game, the Spurs can win tonight.  Hopefully they will.  

Game 2 Quick Preview

First of all, Game 1 was one of the highest-level games I have ever seen.  There were a combined 12 turnovers (like a normal quarter for the Pacers), and neither team beat itself.  Defenses rotated smartly, layups were few and far between, and the ball movement was crisp.  For the Heat, the bench was a huge plus; Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Norris Cole, and Birdman all played well, with all but the latter knocking down 3 pointers.  LeBron was everywhere on defense, either preventing layups or scaring folks into not even shooting.  Much has been said about Manu Ginobili (aka the best passer alive) and the pass he threw between Norris Cole's legs:

How is that even possible??

What is not being talked about is LeBron's defense on the play.  I have seen Manu throw that pass probably 10 times, and it always ends with a layup for Parker.  Not in game 1.  LeBron clearly has been studying film, and like a good free safety, he abandoned his man to make a layup-saving play.  The pass itself was insane.  Ginobili actually should have had about 4 more assists; Splitter received a pass that should have resulted in an layup (even with the foul) but missed, Ginobili hit Bonner for TWO DIFFERENT LAYUPS, and the Red Mamba was not able to convert either (on the first one, Bonner thought LeBron was in the area--he caught the ball with his back to the basket with nobody near him---and passed out, and on the second one, Bonner again sensed LeBron and rushed up a layup which he blew), to say nothing of all the wide open 3s the Spurs missed.  

From the Heat's point of view, most worrying is that Dwayne Wade's inability to shoot is being badly exploited by the Spurs, who pretty much beg him to shoot.  Ginobili and Danny Green went under every pick and roll involving Wade, and Flash was not able to make them pay.  His terrible jump shot has shrunk the court; the Spurs can pack another man near the lane, ready to stymie the next LeBron drive because Wade poses no outside threat.  

Similarly, Chris Bosh for 3 is the Spurs' preferred outcome of a Heat possession.  Bosh is no Dirk, and his range in earnest extends to about 19 feet; when he shoots 3s, it is fool's gold.  San Antonio knows this.  

Speaking of Bosh, neither he nor Haslem nor Birdman can guard Duncan; Joel Anthony has the size to match up with Tim,  but he is such a non-factor offensively that the Spurs must be thrilled every time he enters the game.  

In my opinion, the Heat's best lineup would be Bosh at the 5, LeBron at the 4, Miller at the 3, Ray Allen at the 2, and Wade at the 1.  LeBron would have to bang with Splitter in this lineup, but Splitter would have to guard either LeBron or Bosh or Miller in this lineup, which would lead to some open shots for the Heat.

One disconcerting detail I read about tonight's game 2 is that Joey Crawford is refereeing.  For those unaware, Joey Crawford (a diminutive old man) once challenged TIM DUNCAN to fight!!  This is why everyone thinks the NBA is fixed.  How could someone who wants to fight one of the players in the game ever be allowed to ref a Finals game in which said player is participating?  What a joke.  

From the Spurs' point of view, if Duncan does not pick up quick fouls (like the terribly-called blocking foul in game 1), he should be able to do work down low.  Further for San Antonio, Manu looked spry.  He got to the rim a bunch of times, converting some, getting fouled on others, and getting fouled without receiving calls on yet other drives.  If his legs are feeling good, San Antonio should win.  His passing skills are simply insane, and his defense and shooting were big positives for the Spurs in game 1.  

Manu just threw a screwball pitch with a basketball

The Spurs received clutch play from Tony Parker in the 4th; his game-clinching shot was both terrible and amazing all at once.  When the Heat put LeBron on Parker, I thought the Spurs should have given the ball handling duties to Manu, who had a comparative advantage on Wade or Allen.  Parker couldn't get past LeBron; the Spurs ran multiple pick and rolls on each play in which Parker was guarded by James, but the Frenchman simply could not free himself.  Further, Parker isn't a great passer, so there were no good shots created on those possessions (the game-clincher was not a 'good' shot in any sense of the word).  The Spurs' have to be heartened by winning despite wretched 3 point shooting from their role players, all of whom seemed to be always open and always missing.  If Neal and Leonard each had hit 1 or 2 wide open 3s, the game wouldn't have even reached the tension level that it did.

Game 2 prediction:  Sigh.  I want the Spurs to win, and believe they have a good shot at winning the series, but Crawford's inclusion worries me.  Ginobili doesn't get calls like American players of his caliber, and if the refs decide that every time a Spurs player goes up vertically to challenge a shot it is a foul, Miami will live at the line and hold on.  That being said, if Bonner, Leonard, and Neal can hit shots, it won't matter.  I am picking the Heat in a close game, against my better judgment.

Ow, my neck. GoT Season Finale Preview

 

 

Someone get the Neosporin. 

After digesting last weekend's GoT insanity (with a story that curved like this Manu Ginobili pass),   I am ready to approach the season finale with lucidity.  Obviously, the impact of the Red Wedding will cut across the Westeros-based storylines (meaning all but Khaleesi).  In the episode trailer, we see Tyrion saying "the northerners will never forget".  He is right.  What will their memory comport in the short-term?  Probably not too much.  The Stark army seems to be rudderless and leaderless, and the remaining Stark children are scattered and unable to mount a challenge to the Lannisters at this point. 

With Roos Bolton and Walder Frey seemingly in the Lannister camp now (based on Bolton telling Robb that the Lannisters send their regards, as well as Tyrion's quote in the season finale trailer), and Sansa Stark wed to Tyrion, the Lannisters appear to be ready to try to tame the north, which Cersei Lannister advised Geoffrey was impossible in an earlier episode.  Winterfell is burned to the ground, and there is a clear power vacuum. 

Meanwhile in the capital, what will Sansa's reaction be to the death of her brother and mother?  She seems to have grown up more this season, so we can only hope that she takes revenge and kills Tyrion (as likeable as he is), as well as Tywin and of course the despicable Joffrey and Cersei.  This is not likely to happen for storyline reasons.  Hopefully she stabs at least one of them though. 

What of Little Finger?  As despicable as his betrayal of Ned was, he has always loved Catelyn Stark and who knows what his response will be to her murder at the hands of the Lannisters.  There is no longer anything out of bounds on this show; anyone can be killed at any time; ideas of honor and respect are long gone at this point.  Robb Stark tried to make amends honorably, and ended up watching his wife and unborn child stabbed to death and his mother pierced with arrows before meeting his end. 

Speaking of Robb, it is hard not to look back on his mistakes (and those of his mother) and not see that this was entirely preventable.  Had he been able to keep his dick in his pants, had he made the responsible choice, he would have been allied with Walder Frey, and the Red Wedding would not have occurred.  Further, had he not so pigheadedly killed Lord Carstark for murdering 2 Lannister teenagers, Robb's army would have had an additional 10,000 men, and he would not have needed to go to Walder Frey anyway.  As for his mother, had she not freed Jamie, the entire chain of events would have unfolded differently; the Lannisters would not have dared to kill Robb and Catelyn Stark with Jamie still in Stark control.  Sigh. 

As for Khaleesi, after her man servants and former-slave army conquered Yunkai, she seems to be in a good position.  As I predicted in my season preview, Khaleesi seems to be on her way up (well, I predicted she had a 50% chance of taking the iron throne, which clearly is not going to happen in this season, but that is neither here nor there).  I assume many of the slaves she freed will join her cause; between them, the Second Sons, the Unsullied, and the gold of Yunkis (and the dragons), it appears that her reign is inevitable.  We know that Joffrey is aware of her rise, but Tywin believes that she doesn't pose a big threat (in the season finale trailer, there was some teased dissent between Joffrey and Tywin, which could be about Khaleesi and her dragons).

To conclude, I have no idea what will happen, and I like it that way.  All I know for sure is that the show has taken a more sinister, more morally repugnant tone after the Red Wedding, and that there is no going back. 

 

Game 7 breakdown...oh who am I kidding, GAME OF THRONES HOLY SHIT

After game 6 of the epic Heat-Pacers series, my mind was filled with tidbits I wanted to write about heading into the finale tomorrow night.  The subplots were so juicy; was Lance Stephenson's newfound ability to positively impact the game without scoring an outlier or an indicator of things to come; how would Birdman's return impact the game; was Spoelstra's decision to play Mike Miller (who by my count is 3-3 in the series, all 3 of those shots being 3 pointers) for several minutes a sign that the coach is finally not brain dead, or was it just a tease; why did David West come up clutch in game 6 with a 103 degree fever, while he choked away game 1 and faded in game 3 while healthy; is Dwayne Wade's time as an elite player over; will LeBron finally be forced to use Rogaine if the NBA ever bans headbands?  All important questions.  

And then Game of Thrones happened.  For those who haven't yet seen episode 9, stop reading.  In all my years of watching television, this was the most shocking episode of any television show I have ever seen.  In terms of plot twists, this episode was nonpareil.  The audience was hoodwinked, bamboozled, cast afoul, led astray, run amok, tossed asunder, and any other Malcom X term you can think of.  Just as it seemed that Robb Stark was finally about to turn the tables on the despicable (and brilliant) Tywin Lannister, when it seemed like the Stark-Fray alliance was reborn, with his uncle marrying a beautiful Fray girl and Lord Fray seeming to forgive Robb, with his pregnant wife at his side and his sister literally at the gates, it all went to hell.  I am not going to even attempt to describe the massacre that took place, because words could never do that scene justice; everyone must see it.  

I am writing because of the shocking emotive response I had to the show; I watched with my roommate, and we were both left with our mouths agape; neither of us could even say anything for the last few minutes of the episode, as the horrifying carnage was unfolding.  When the episode ended, I felt emotionally drained; apparently the finality of death, even of tv characters (albeit ones I had clearly come to "know" and care about), was enough to move me.  I felt sick.  

A friend called several minutes after the credits, and expressed his similar sentiments.  The sheer cruelty and cynicism on display in the episode hit too close to home.  There is not a soul alive who cannot relate to losing big when things seem to finally be going right.  George R.R. Martin's work is so good because he understands the human emotional spectrum; he understands that we are programmed to want the good guy to triumph in the end, but that in reality, it doesn't happen that way.  In Martin's view, life is not a triumph; it is a cruel, unfair march to the grave that can end when we least expect it.  Seeing the pregnant Queen of the North have her pregnant belly stabbed, seeing Robb stabbed and betrayed, seeing Catlyn get her throat slit, and seeing the great wolf cut down with arrows, were all reminders that nothing is promised.  The great irony of Robb Stark's character is that he never lost a battle, but he lost the war.  Catlyn Stark meanwhile went to the grave after having seen her eldest son murdered, while not knowing if any other member of her brood was still alive.  It is hard not to sympathize with a family with noble intentions, absolutely torn apart by greed, lust, and betrayal.  

Several of my friends use the expression "Everything will be okay in the end. If it's not okay, it isn't the end."  George R.R. Martin is clearly not a subscriber to such a theory, and his ability to viscerally touch viewers and readers speaks to our own insecurities; deep down, we all know that the end is not "okay", but that the end, necessarily means death.  Martin plays on our fears and insecurities, confronting us and taking us out of our comfort zones.  Most tv shows don't allow their prime characters to be killed, fearing the audience will lose interest (The Wire was an exception, with Omar and Stringer Bell's respective deaths stunning audiences).  Game of Thrones lets viewers occasionally think that happily ever after does exist, only to pull the carpet out from under us in a most cruel fashion.  I can't wait for the season finale.  

Cain and Fedor

Brown Pride vs the Russian Cyborg

CONTEXT:  After last weekend's fights, it is clear that the gap between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez and everyone else in the division is sizable.  Junior, who looks like a cross between Brian Urlacher and Tarzan, does things that a 6'4, 245 pound man should not be able to, such as land a spinning head kick on a Samoan with a head made out of granite:

Ouch.

For his part, Cain took care of business in 80 seconds, in an incredibly dominant performance that has resembled every other fight of his, besides his first encounter with Mr. Dos Santos (and his win against Cup Check Kongo, in which Cain got dropped twice by the large, stiff, Frenchman).  

How to do you say KTFO in Portuguese?  

However, I write this column not to talk about the upcoming third chapter in the Cain-JDS trilogy, but rather to do something that I, until recently, considered to be sacrilege: to compare Cain with the best fighter in mma history, Fedor Emelianenko.  It dawned on me as I was watching Cain make Bigfoot Silva look like a fucking amateur, that Cain is basically Fedor 2.0.  

STRIKING: Both are short heavyweights with great handspeed, a talent for finishing people, and uncanny punching accuracy.  

The differences in striking style between the two are clear (and anyone wanting an in-depth breakdown of Fedor's striking style should read this wonderful article by Jack Slack):  Fedor was an unconventional boxer who would often stand with his hands at his stomach, relying on his head movement and ability to launch brutal, fast, left hooks and right straights.  Fedor had thunderous power in both hands, and would punch at different angles while moving his head; when he had an opponent hurt, Fedor would go into Cyborg Mode and begin an onslaught of hooks and body shots.  This aggression usually paid, off, but also cost him dearly occasionally, such as when he got dropped by Fujita, and later, when he got knocked out by Dan "Low T" Henderson after having badly hurt the latter.   

Fedor's hand speed, movement, timing, and ability to punch while going backwards meant it was never a good idea to charge at him.  

Fedor pretty much breaks Nog's face with this lead right hand.  

Looking like a Russian Anderson Silva.  

Fedor uses his right hand to move Zulu's left hand out of the way, opening up space for a crushing lead left hook.

Here against Goodridge, Fedor senses blood.  Unleash the Hooks of Doom.  Great body work too.

Fedor uses his left hand to move Nog's left hand out of the way, clearing a path for Fedor's rocket right hand.  

Fedor leads with a left hook, then starts throwing Hooks of Doom (none of which seem to miss btw) to absolutely demolish Tim Sylvia.  (Note the way that Fedor uses his initial right hook to establish a clinch with Sylvia, leading to a barrage of uppercuts).

Fedor's power and Arlovski's stupidity saved Fedor in the fight that marked the beginning of the fall of the Emperor's career.  

The closest Fedor came to defeat during his prime.

After almost getting dropped by Fujita, Fedor lands a huge body kick and a lead left hook on the chin, leading to Fujita's demise.

Watching live, this was the loudest punch I had ever heard.  As Fedor got older, slower, and lazier, he tended to load up on single shots more.  It worked against Rogers.  

By contrast, Cain is a more aggressive striker, and has a more conventional boxing style.  Cain moves behind his jab, throwing 1-2 combos (such as the one that KO'd Bigfoot), and mixing in hooks and hard kicks.  He uses his All-American wrestling chops and Lance Armstrong-esque cardio to keep his opponents off guard; his opponents are loath to punch first for fear of getting taken down, and get worn down from his constant onslaught.  Cain fears neither takedowns nor fatigue, and stalks at a breakneck pace.  At times, this aggression has cost him dearly, such as when, against Cup Check Kongo, Cain walked straight in (his head movement isn't great) and ate two big straight right hands, getting dropped after each such punch.

Poor Brock.  

Ouch.  

Old Nog makes Cain look like Mike Tyson.  

In the rematch, Cain made JDS look like a Made in Brazil punching bag.  

Vicious clinch work.  

Le knockdowns by ze Frenchman.  

Generally Cain's aggression has worked perfectly.  In the initial JDS-Cain match, Cain, allegedly hobbled with a knee injury, could not apply his intense, stalking pressure, and was forced to engage in a boxing match against JDS, where we saw the limitations of Cain's striking ability without the takedown threat. 

Big swing.  

In the rematch, a healthy Cain moved forward and absolutely crushed Dos Santos, who seemed to have no respect for Cain's punching power (a big mistake), and was solely concerned with stopping takedowns.  This strategy worked for the first minute or two of the fight, but then Junior (who was clearly not focused on Cain's hands) started catching big punches clean, and was knocked 90% unconscious in the first round.  I still to this day have no idea how he survived the full 25 minutes while fighting on no legs against one of the best fighters in mma history.  

Advantage:  It is hard to parse out Cain's striking skills from his overall game, as much of his striking success is predicated on the threat of his great takedowns and ability to transition from punching to wrestling.  Similarly Fedor possessed the ability to expertly transition from striking to takedowns, but tended to do so in a more explosive, natural movement.  Fedor's sambo background taught him to not view striking and grappling as distinct entities, but each one as a continuation of the other.  On the other hand, Cain's base in wrestling features a distinct start and stop.  Based on each man's body of work in pure striking terms (and accepting that both men had openings at times because of their takedown ability), Fedor is the clearly superior striker.  He had a better chin, better head movement, faster hands, more punching power, and moved with unparalleled agility for a heavyweight.  From outstriking Mirko CroCop and Arlovski to Tim Sylvia and Nog and Gary Goodridge, to fighting even (at worst) on the feet with Mark Hunt (who was still in his physical prime when they fought, and had defeated Mirko and Wanderlei Silva in the previous 2 years, among others, and who had a 60 pound weight advantage on Fedor),  to putting down iron head Fujita and punching Brett Rogers' head clean off, to destroying Jeff Monson with leg kicks, Fedor showed a striking game that was a cut above what Cain has shown so far.

TAKEDOWNS/GROUND & POUND/SUBMISSIONS:

Cain, being an All-American wrestler with some of the most violent, tireless, and destructive ground and pound the sport has ever seen, has a different approach to takedowns than Fedor did.  Emelianenko's sambo base features a plethora of clever judo throws and trips, while Cain's meat and potatoes is picking up and slamming his opponents, often off of double or single leg takedowns while his opponents backpedal away from his strikes.  Cain's wrestling is occasionally used in reverse, such as in his fight against Brock Lesnar, when the 'Vanilla Gorilla' took Cain down quickly, only for Velasquez to pop up with shocking speed.  

This demoralized Brock.  

Cain and Fedor have different approaches once the fight hits the ground; Cain uses his top control and cardio to smother and beat his opponents down, often looking to get into the crucifix position to basically end the fight.  There is something visceral about watching Velasquez fight; he knows what he is good at, and will not deviate from his strengths, scoring over and over until the referee mercifully steps in.  Cain's performances have an air of inevitability; it is hard to conceive of anything except a brutal first round stoppage against anyone he can take down.

"Ow, my face."  

 Cain possesses the kind of farm boy strength and drive that is reminiscent of a young Matt Hughes; Cain just will keep coming until his opponent is on the mat, attempting futilely to escape the swarm of accurate punches and elbows being launched by Velasquez.  On the ground, as on the feet, Cain's superior cardio and speed make the fight seem almost unfair; the man simply does not stop; no mercy shown, no rest needed.  Cain is a perfect storm of vicious violence, whose wrestling mastery and absolute lack of fear of submissions mean he doesn't stop punching and elbowing until the fight is over.  

Cain drags Junior to the ground like a lion dragging a gazelle.  

Showing the full repertoire.  

No let up.  

Lazy low kicks = Cain will take you down and end you.  

Cain is a finisher.  

Fedor, for all of his considerable skills and talents, is not the kind of two-way wrestler Cain is, meaning Fedor was taken down a number of times in his career.  He showed good sprawls throughout his career, but his sambo background simply did not make him as adept at stopping powerful shots as high-level wrestlers are.  Against former UFC heavyweight champions and NCAA wrestling champions Kevin Randleman and Mark Coleman, Fedor ended up on his back.  Against both men, it mattered not, as Fedor slapped on submissions in the first round, just as he did against Olympic silver medalist in judo Naoyo Ogawa, and as Fedor did against Olympic silver medalist wrestler Matt Lindland.

The beauty of watching Fedor fight was that one was never sure if his bigger advantage was on the feet or on the mat; the man was seemingly better than everyone he fought in every position.  Fedor showed an uncanny ability to turn his opponent's offense into takedowns; whether catching kicks and throwing his opponents down, or using the resulting lack of balance from a kick to gain superior position on a foe, Fedor always seemed to be a move ahead.

The biggest difference between Fedor and Cain comes in the former's ability to execute submissions from seemingly any position.  Chokes, Kimuras, and armbars, whether from on top or on the bottom, are all standard parts of Fedor's repertoire.  There is nobody in the sport's history who can match him in all three areas (submissions, takedowns, and striking).  His flexibility, explosive hips, grip strength, and precision meant that he was a threat to finish the fight in any position.

Here, Fedor, facing the best kicker in the history of the sport, is not even fazed by a Mirko head kick, and calmly ducks under Mirko's leg, uses his non-blocking arm to grab the leg, and then powerbombs CroCop into the mat.  Amazing.

It is hard to stop a takedown when it comes in the same motion as a missile-like right hand aimed at your head.  

This is one of my favorite Fedor moments.  Facing noted striker and massively strong HW Gary Goodridge,  Fedor impedes Gary's forward progress with a knee, and then, while still going backwards, uses Gary's own momentum against him to put the Canadian fighter on the mat with seeming ease.  

Perhaps with a little help from the ropes, Fedor stymies Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland's takedown attempt, and scores a judo throw of his own.   

Heath Herring here makes the mistake of being aggressive against Fedor.  Never a good idea.  Fedor had such good reflexes and so much fighting experience, that he could anticipate his opponents' moves easily.  Here, he catches Herring's kick and uses his explosive power to plant a 255 pound man on his back.  

Heath again tries to mount offense against Fedor for some absurd reason.  Clearly he didn't learn.  After eating a well-placed roundhouse kick to the liver, Fedor reacts like nothing has happened, and quickly spins Heath around and slams him like a sack of rice.  

Fedor, despite Mirko's double underhooks, still manages to get a takedown.  How?  You can't teach the kind of cleverness that Fedor displays.  Watch as Fedor manages to hook his right leg behind Mirko's left knee.  As he does this and hops on his left leg, Mirko's right hand slides down from the back of Fedor's left shoulder to his armpit, effectively allowing Fedor enough space to break Mirko's grip and grab Mirko's right knee and finish the takedown.  Work. Of. Art. 

Against multi-time K1 GP champion Semmy Schilt (6'11, 290 pounds),  Fedor does his best to avoid the Dutchman's knee, waiting until Semmy pulls back his knee to close the distance.  Fedor still eats the knee, but not with enough force to stop him.  

Here Fedor gets double underhooks against Schilt, and despite appearing headed for danger, Fedor manages  at the last second to flip the giant onto his back and complete the takedown.  A testament to Fedor's explosive hips.  

Fedor here repels his opponent's advances first by taking his advancing foe off balance with a low kick, and then driving through his opponent, eventually planting him firmly on his back with a scintillating slam.

Fedor so easily throws a much larger man to the ground.  Here Fedor used his opponent's momentum against him, waited until he was slightly off balance, then slid his right foot behind his opponent's left foot and threw him down.  Brilliant stuff.  

Fedor here is able to isolate the arm and get the Kimura. Notice how Fedor's body weight is high on his opponent's head and neck.   

Fedor had such fast armbars.  Coleman had no chance.  

Fedor found himself getting slammed on his head by Kevin Randleman, perhaps the most explosive wrestler in mma history.  Not to fear though, as soon as Fedor landed, he had already started working his way on top of Randleman.  

Once Fedor got on top of Randleman, he was once again able to put his body weight over the head and chest of his opponent, and complete the Kimura.  

Fedor is the reason that Nogueira no longer has a chin.  Minotauro suffered an absolute massacre at Fedor's hands.  I have never seen anyone generate so much force from the guard.  Remember folks, this was in Pride, with no elbows and no cage, so it was infinitely more dangerous for someone to stay in his opponent's guard.  

At the time of their first fight, Nog was considered the best fighter on Earth.  Fedor demolished him, and did so by playing Nog's game, namely staying in the guard, letting Minotauro think he could sub him, and then unleashing BOMBS.  

 CONCLUSION:  When comparing the two men, we must remember that they fought under different rules.  The cage makes it easier for people on top to inflict damage because they can stack their opponents' heads against the cage.  Further, Pride had no elbows on the ground, which made wrestlers on top more prone to being caught in submissions from the guard (because they had to actually extend their arms to punch, whereas in the UFC now there is no such need), and made hurting an opponent while on top in the guard more difficult.  The added benefits of the ring for wrestlers were the smaller area, the ability to corner fighters, and the ability to knee and kick to the head on the ground.

I think if they were to fight under Pride rules, Fedor would win rather dominantly.  Cain would be in the unusual position of fighting someone with more speed than he possesses, and with more punching power as well.  Fedor is also a more seasoned striker.  Cain would advance and try to pressure Fedor, but would find himself walking into punches.  Fedor would feint and change angles on Cain, and we would see his lazer-like right hand come flying in on Velasquez.  Given how shaky Cain looked against a guy in Kongo with a hard straight right and nothing else, and the vulnerability he showed against a guy in J2S who has 1 punch power, I believe Fedor would prove to be too much for Cain.   There is a very real possibility we would see Cain on his back while hurt, a position we have never seen him in before (besides the knockdown against JDS).

In the UFC, I think Cain's odds of beating Fedor go up.  With the huge space of the cage to prevent from getting trapped in a corner while in a striking exchange, Cain would be able to control the distance more efficiently.  If Cain and Fedor clinched, Cain would have a good shot at securing the takedown.  On the ground, given Cain's vicious elbows and the difficulty in securing an armbar from the bottom in such an environment, Cain would do some damage.  However, at the end of the day, I don't think he would win.  Fedor had such sudden and explosive strength from all angles, and would be able to take Cain down, a position the wrestler would find most uncomfortable.

Cain's biggest advantages against everyone else in the HW division these days are his cardio and speed.  How would Fedor react to being stalked by someone who could take him down and land shots on the feet?  Kevin Randleman was the closest thing to that Fedor ever faced (but a much faster, much stronger, worse cardio, less technical striking, and less successful version of Cain--namely because of his lack of submission defense), and Fedor submitted him in 90 seconds.  Randleman found himself on top of Fedor twice in that span, and despite his NCAA championship pedigree, he could not control Fedor on the ground.  I have no reason to think Cain could, nor do I have any reason to think Cain could close the distance on Fedor as quickly as Randleman was able to.