Believe The Hype

Nobody Likes Me

There is an untold truth leading up to the McGregor-Mendes fight.  The truth in question is that Chad Mendes is no less cocky than Conor McGregor, but instead of coming off as funny and confident, Mendes comes across an insecure bully with a Napoleon complex.  Mendes desperately wants to be loved; that is why he has repeatedly said, “a lot of people want to see me destroy Conor McGregor”, and why he begged Jose Aldo to lend him his fans.  Mendes is trying to convince himself that he is a hero to the masses, and that people are coming to watch him KO McGregor.  The truth is that nobody besides hardcore MMA fans cares about Chad Mendes, while Conor McGregor is on ESPN and late night talk shows, signing endorsement deals, getting love from U2, and getting walked to the Octagon by Sinead O'Connor.  

Mendes’ nickname is ‘Money’, which is what he will be getting only because his opponent is Conor McGregor.  The only other fighter with the nickname of ‘Money’, Floyd Mayweather, has the McGregor effect on his opponents.  They are jealous of the wealth, start to hate him, and promise to teach him a lesson in respect and humility.  For a guy like Chad Mendes who has done everything the right way athletically in his career, it is unnerving to see that despite his talent, despite his wrestling and MMA achievements, he is merely there to serve as an opponent for the guy everyone came to see. 

For all of the accolades that Mendes has received in his career, he has no pay-per-view (PPV) drawing power.  In his second clash with Jose Aldo (Aldo won the first by KO in the first round), the fight lasted 25 minutes and both men had success on offense.  It was considered a match of the year candidate, and yet drew only 180,000 PPV buys, one of the lowest numbers in the UFC’s modern era.  Conor McGregor has made Chad Mendes famous in the past two weeks, something Mendes never could have done on his own, even if he had beaten Aldo and become champion. 

For all of his braggadocio, McGregor is nothing if not honest.  During their conference call, after Mendes said that he was going to beat McGregor because people want to see him do it, McGregor correctly told him that Chad is only here to be part of the McGregor Show.   Some people might be turned off by his brashness, but his words are accurate.  Conor is the reason this show has a $7.1 million live gate (UFC’s highest ever total in the United States), as well as the reason the show is trending upwards of 1 million pay-per-view buys.  Chad is there to be sacrificed. 

Believing Your Own Hype

At yesterday’s pre-fight press conference, Chad described himself as hitting “like Mike Tyson”.  I’m afraid that the Californian has bought into his hype a bit too much.  Of Mendes’ 17 wins, 7 have come by way of KO/TKO.  By contrast, of McGregor’s 17 wins, 15 have come by KO/TKO (the other two wins were a submission and a decision after he tore his ACL and couldn’t put weight on his leg).  McGregor has knocked out successful 155 pounders, while Mendes looks like he could easily make 135.  Chad further called McGregor “one-dimensional”, which appears false based upon the times Conor has either dominated fights on the ground. 

Examples of this grappling acumen have manifested themselves throughout McGregor’s career.  In the second and third rounds of his fight against Max Holloway, when, after tearing his ACL, McGregor switched from dominating the Hawaiian on the feet (one judge scored the first round 10-8) to doing so on the ground, and did so more successfully than more acclaimed wrestlers that Holloway fought, most notably Dennis Bermudez (to whom Holloway lost a split-decision).  The grappling skills were also on display against Dave Hill, a noted submission fighter with 9 submission wins to his name, and only one submission loss, that coming against McGregor.  In that fight McGregor floored his British opponent twice with head kicks, but the pugnacious Englishman kept coming forward to close the distance and grapple with ‘Notorious’.  Unfortunately for Hill, he was outclassed on the ground, and after numerous McGregor guard passes, Conor finally choked Hill out.  In McGregor’s fight against Dennis Siver, the German fighter several times shot in for a takedown, getting deep on McGregor’s hips because Conor was in full-on attack mode.  None of Siver’s attempts turned into anything besides Conor being on the mat for less than a second, bouncing up, and freeing himself to continue the onslaught. 

On the Feet

Chad Mendes has made tremendous strides as a striker.  He has gone from a guy who was purely a takedown bulldozer, to a guy who has KO power and knows how to use it.  That being said, he is still badly outmatched on the feet in this fight.  Not only does McGregor have an 8-9 inch reach advantage and a 3-4 inch height advantage (to say nothing of leg length), he also covers distance with a grace and rapidity that is rare in MMA.  His footwork is stellar, a product of his amateur boxing experience.  His head movement is better than any MMA fighter I can think of besides Anderson Silva.  He has great balance and flexibility, leading to kicks that nobody else in MMA throws.   Mendes has made several petty comments about Conor’s yoga training; at one point he asked if Conor’s plan on the ground was to do the splits on top of him, and he made a separate reference about this being a fight, not a yoga class.  Chad made these comments because he is a meathead wrestler.  Being Urijah Faber’s protégé, training at a Napoleon complex-themed gym called “Team Alpha Male” (only in that gym are alpha males all 5’6 or below), and being a wrestler mean that Mendes is by nature going to mock and deride non-conventional training forms. 

I have seen Mendes’ athleticism; he is incredibly strong, quick, and explosive.  He is not however loose-limbed or flexible.  Conor knows that Mendes’ only offense on the feet will come in the form of punches and low kicks.  By comparison Mendes will have to face side kicks, hook kicks, kicks to the knee, jumping knees, punches, roundhouse kicks, front kicks, spinning kicks, and knee thrusts when Chad tries to close the (considerable) range.  For all the talk of how Chad has great punching power, let’s be serious here.  Conor is the much larger man and packs a much larger punch.  Chad looked great with his hands against Aldo because Jose just stood in place and traded.  McGregor does not operate in that manner.  He controls space and timing, seems to always get his lead foot outside his opponent’s lead foot, and has an iron chin.  Further, he throws straight punches, whereas Chad’s bombs come from closer in. 

One fight that sounds odd to mention but may be instructive was the bout between Mendes and Clay Guida.  Unlike McGregor, Guida has no skills whatsoever on the feet, no athleticism, no trickery, and lacks one-punch KO power.  What Guida does do, like McGregor (albeit in an entirely different manner), is move around a lot and control the distance.  Guida struggled to hit Mendes because of his lack of speed and technique, but for the first two rounds of the fight, Chad barely hit Guida because of ‘The Carpenter’ and his unusual movement.  If Mendes has trouble finding a guy with no speed, limited power, and no ability to cut angles or maneuver his opponent, what will he do with a guy like McGregor? 

Hendo vs Anderson, Redux?

When it comes to a white American wrestler with a big right hand against an arrogant (in fighting style—Anderson didn’t however talk trash like McGregor) foreigner with striking skills beyond what an MMA fighter is supposed to have, the closest matchup I can think of is Anderson Silva vs Dan Henderson.  The knock on Silva going into that fight was that he had never faced a top-level wrestler.  Pundits said Henderson, with his Olympic-alternate level wrestling skills and punching power, would overwhelm Silva.  Of course, the opposite occurred.  After a round of ineffectual lay n pray by TRT Dan, in the second stanza Silva opened up with strikes, dropping the acclaimed wrestler before choking him out.  One could make the case that Mendes is a mini version of Henderson, and that McGregor is a smaller version of Anderson (but with Chael Sonnen’s mouth and an even greater ability to deliver KOs---Anderson has 20 KO wins in 40 career fights, while Conor has 15 in 20 career fights). 

Conor KO 2.  

First Round Playoff Preview, Part 2

Spurs vs Clippers

Prepare yourselves for more Kawhi dunks.

This is a shame.  The Spurs and Clippers can make legitimate claims to being the second and best third teams in the NBA, and yet they square off in the first round.  Blame the ridiculousness that is NBA playoff seeding, in which division champions cannot be seeded below 4.  Fail.

The Clippers have frontcourt athleticism in spades, which has historically been the Spurs’ weakness (that and not having a proper small forward between Sean Elliott and Kawhi Leonard).  However, Boris Diaw has shown himself to be a surprisingly good one-on-one defender; he has nimble feet and enough bulk to not be bullied in the post.  DeAndre Jordan can jump out of the gym and rebounds his tail off, but his offensive game hasn’t evolved much beyond dunking.  That being said, he cannot be ignored on offense, because he is a potent offensive rebounder.   Tim Duncan can still score even against a beast like Jordan, as his game was never based on strength or athleticism.  Spencer Hawes, brought in to be a space creating big, has been a flop.   If Tiago Splitter’s sore calf keeps him out of action, the Spurs will be in severe trouble, as he is the team’s only big besides Duncan with the height and bulk to contend with Jordan.  Behind Splitter, the Spurs have to go to Aaron Baynes, who is barely an NBA-caliber player, and lacks Splitter’s ability to finish around the rim (and Splitter isn’t a great finisher anyway). 

The backcourt battle between these teams will be worth watching.  Tony Parker is a ball of energy, constantly attacking off the pick and roll, with a preternatural ability to get into the paint and draw contact or hit contested floaters.  Chris Paul is the best player I can think of to never make it to a conference finals; he is a monster on pick and rolls, is a deadeye midrange shooter, and is perhaps the best one-on-one defender in the NBA at the point guard position.  The Spurs will struggle to contain Paul and Blake Griffin or Paul and DeAndre Jordan on the pick and roll, but Popovich is better at making adjustments than any other coach, and the Spurs have incredible synergy on the defensive end.  The Spurs will adjust, and make someone else beat them. 

In many ways, this series could turn on the play of J.J. Redick.  The former Duke star causes difficulty for defenses with his constant movement and ability to knock down shots coming off of screens.  Like a poor man’s Kyle Korver, Redick causes defenses to bend in ways they are not intended to.  If Redick gets hot early, the Spurs will have to devote more attention than wanted to Redick, leading to open shots for other players.  San Antonio counters with talented and crafty defenders, namely Manu Ginobili and Danny Green.  Seeing a team over and over leads to defensive recognition, and Ginobili’s defensive instincts will get him into passing lanes to disrupt Redick’s catch and shoot opportunities. 

The small forward matchup is interesting only in the sense of trying to guess how many technical fouls Matt Barnes gets.  Kawhi Leonard has established himself as the best defensive wing in the league, and a blooming offensive force.  He has been a good three-point shooter for several years now, but he has finally started to show a more well-rounded offensive game.  He has otherworldly athleticism, and plays with a confidence that grows with each passing game.  As his offensive opportunities increase, Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan can get more rest, as Leonard carries more of the load. 

Given their ages and the amount of miles on their proverbial tires, it is doubtful that Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan will all play well in any given game.  However, given the team’s tremendous depth, it likely won’t matter.  Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Splitter are all proven playoff performers, and Cory Joseph’s emergence has given the team another heady defender. 

The Pick:  Spurs in 6

Portland vs Memphis

Get ready to see plenty of smiling Grizzlies in this series.

Poor Portland.  They lose Wes Matthews a month before the playoffs start, and now find themselves against the burliest, toughest team in the NBA.  As good as LaMarcus Aldrige is, the Blazers will be dominated in the low post, as the tag team of Gasol and Randolph will be superior to Aldridge and whomever he may be paired with (a veritable pu pu platter of Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard, and Joel Freeland). 

In the backcourt, defensive sieve and offensive star Damian Lillard will have his hands full on both ends with Mike Conley, and if he starts to get hot, Lillard will have to deal with Tony Allen, one of the best defensive guards in the NBA.  Aaron Affalo, brought in to be a super sixth man, finds himself now as the starter, and he will need to produce at a high level for Portland to have a shot.  The aforementioned Tony Allen, despite being a poor shooter, is a dangerous offensive player due to his cutting and offensive rebounding ability. 

At the small forward position, Nicholas Batum has badly regressed this season, often looking like a borderline D-League player.  The Grizzlies massively upgraded their team at the position by trading for Jeff Green, whose addition finally gives this team enough offensive firepower to credibly be a championship contender. 

The Pick: Grizzlies in 5. 

Atlanta Hawks vs New Jersey Nets

 

Deron will be in the same mood after this quick series.

The Hawks have ended the season on something of a down note; they lost their aura of invincibility.  The question is whether that was due to boredom, or if the league caught up to their tactics.  The team still sports perhaps the best power forward-center combo in the conference, the best shooter alive, a lockdown wing player in DeMarre Carroll, and a dynamic point guard in Jeff Teague. 

The Nets are an enigmatic bunch.  Despite highly paid stars like Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Deron Williams, the team barely made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is to say, they would have finished 15 games under .500 had they been in the Western Conference.  Despite their pathetic regular season campaign, the Nets are a dangerous bunch.  When Brook Lopez is healthy (roughly 10% of the season), he is as good of a post up player as there is in the NBA.  As fate would have it, he is healthy now.  Lopez will have a big size advantage against Al Horford, who is a solid defender.  Horford will have a massive foot speed advantage against Lopez on the other end, and the Nets may go small to counter.  Joe Johnson can play the power forward position, especially against Paul Millsap, and if Brook Lopez gets toasted too many times, the hyper-athletic Mason Plumlee will see more action. 

At the end of the day however, if the Hawks are healthy and unless Brook Lopez gets 35 a game, the Hawks will win this series easily.

The Pick:  Hawks in 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

The maestro.

Anything besides a sweep will be disappointing for Cleveland.  After floundering for the first half of the season, the Cavs righted the ship by acquiring Tim Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert.  In two fell swoops, the team changed their weaknesses into strengths (center position and the wing depth).  They now field above-average starters at every position, and have the kind of veteran depth necessary to win in the playoffs.

The Celtics are a nice story; they have young talent across the board, but they are simply in over their heads.  I expect the games to be competitive, but the Cavs will simply overwhelm Boston down the stretch.

Pick:  Cavaliers in 4.  

First Round Playoff Matchups, Part 1

NBA Playoffs, First-Round Matchups, Part 1

Finally, the best time of year is upon us.  No more meaningless games, no more loafing defense, no more lags in intensity.  The playoffs are finally here, and today I break down the 4 series that begin on Saturday.

Washington Wizards vs Team from Canada

Strike a pose.

For a large swath of this season, these two would-be juggernauts jousted near the top of the Eastern Conference.  Alas, neither squad was consistently good enough to remain near the apex of the lesser conference, and find themselves playing in the first round.  

The Wizards have a higher ceiling than the Raptors, and the addition of Paul Pierce means they have a leader who has been through the playoffs, won a ring, and knows what it takes to be a champion.  The Raptors, by contrast, possess no championship-level experience.

The stars on the two respective teams are their point guards, the blazing fast John Wall and the mercurial Kyle Lowry.  For the last few years Wall has always seemed a step away, but this season he seemed to grasp what it takes to be great, and made solid strides across the board.  Wall increased his assists per game, assist-to-turnover ratio, his rebounding totals, and improved his field goal percentage (in large part due to shooting less 3s).  Lowry is a tough defender with a better offensive game than he gets credit for, but he is not an explosive one-on-one player, and he tends to shoot far more 3s per game than he should.  In a series in which the teams are fairly evenly matched, the difference between the two stars could prove to be dispositive.

In the front court, the Wizards have better bigs, but Nene is always a question mark.  If he decides to play hard, he can bully the Toronto bigs as he did to Joakim Noah last year, when he annihilated the Defensive Player of the Year in Washington’s win against Chicago.  Jonas Valanciunus has proven to be an effective and efficient scorer around the rim, but does not possess the kind of dominating post game that requires defense-breaking double teams.   Amir Johnson’s badly sprained ankle takes away Toronto’s depth, which will require the feisty but limited Tyler Hansbrough to take on a bigger role. 

At the shooting guard position, Toronto has an edge, as DeRozan is a budding star, whereas Bradley Beal seemed to take a small step backwards this year through his constant battle with injuries.   Louis Williams, Toronto’s gifted sixth man, has the kind of scoring ability to keep Toronto in games when their starters are not playing well.   At the small forward spot, the Wizards should have the edge with the aforementioned Paul Pierce and the improving Otto Porter, who have a clear advantage over Terrence Ross.

Pick:  Wizards in 6

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans

Steve Kerr's nightmare. 

This is not a good matchup for the Warriors.  They don’t have the best player on the floor, they are facing a backcourt of big, strong guards who can body Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and they have to contend with a team that both cleans up its defensive backboards, and can space the floor. 

Anthony Davis, if not already, will be the best player in the league in the very near future.  He is an absolute menace at both ends of the court; he has become an exceptional mid range shooter, and has the foot speed to blow past slower bigs who cover him.  Against smaller players, he can score down low, and he is an excellent pick and roll player, as his rolls to the hoop require constant attention due to his devastating finishing ability.   He is one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the league, and averaged a steal and a half per game, third most among power forwards, trailing only the much shorter Draymond Green and Paul Millsap.

Eric Gordon, once a star in the making whose career progress was derailed by injuries, has stayed healthy for the most part this year.  He has a beautiful jump shot, a strong off the dribble game, and has the physical strength to guard much taller players.  The triumvirate of Gordon, Jrue Holiday, and Tyreke Evans has proven to be a handful for any team to stop.

Unfortunately for the Pelicans, they are facing a historically great offensive team, which also has managed to play stout defense.  The Warriors allow the fewest points per possession in the league, and lead the league in opponents’ field goal percentage.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson form the best-shooting backcourt in the league, Andrew Bogut is a heady defender who cleans the glass, intimidates shots, and reads the floor well, and Draymond Green is a tough-as-nails defender who can seemingly guard 4 positions.  The Warriors have great depth as well, including former All-Stars David Lee (rarely used) and Andre Iguodala (who serves as the team’s de facto sixth man). 

The big question for Golden State is what will happen in a half court game; they are the rightful favorites to win the title, but if Bogut gets in foul trouble or gets injured, their odds of winning decrease dramatically.  One of the reasons Bogut has stayed healthy and his fouling propensity hasn’t hurt the squad is that in an open, running game, there are less opportunities for fouling, and less banging.  In a half court game in which the Warriors aren’t up by 25 at the end of the third quarter, Bogut will have to play more minutes, and either guard Anthony Davis or the sweet-shooting Ryan Anderson. 

Anthony Davis is 6 inches taller than Draymond Green, and will be able to shoot over him at will; he also has a foot speed advantage over Green.  Similarly Bogut has no shot at covering Davis.  The Warriors’ go-to big man off the bench is Marreese Speights, whose career seemed to be winding down before being rescued by Steve Kerr.  Speights similarly can’t check Davis. 

Despite these potential problems, the Warriors backcourt and wings will prove too much for the Pelicans.  As good as Holiday, Evans, and Gordon are, they are several levels below Curry and Thompson, and Iguodala and Harrison Barnes have the defensive acumen and athleticism to make life miserable for the Pelicans’ wing players.

The Pick:  Warriors in 5

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

Difference makers.

Milwaukee has surprised people this year.  After trading away Brandon Knight for the offensively limited Michael Carter-Williams, it appeared as though the team would take a step backwards.  Instead, the Bucks finished strong and find themselves in a winnable series against the Bulls.

The Bucks established themselves as something of a defensive juggernaut this season; they finished second in the league in points per possession allowed, led the league in forced turnovers, and finished fifth in the league in opponents’ field goal percentage.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, they are not a good offensive team.  Carter-Williams destroyed any semblance of spacing this team had with Brandon Knight; he shoots an embarrassing 14% from three-point range, and the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, shoots at a 16% clip.  

The Bulls are similarly stout on defense, but also put forth the best offense this team has fielded in years.  Pau Gasol had a career resurgence this season, averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.  Jimmy Butler has transformed himself into a legitimate second option offensively, and the team sports the league’s best rookie (sorry Andrew Wiggins) in Nikola Mirotic, whose ability to both space the floor and drive from the power forward spot has changed the team’s offense.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, Mirotic is not a great defender, and coach Tom Thibodeau seems to favor the lumbering Joakim Noah and the limited Taj Gibson over Mirotic.  Given the lack of offensive talent on the Bucks, Bulls fans can hope that Tibs will give Mirotic more playing time, as there is nobody on the Bucks who can destroy a defense.

The Pick:  Bulls in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

James Harden, kicking his way to glory.

Unfortunately for Houston, Dwight Howard is no longer an elite player.  He still looks like he would be a great pro wrestler, but his body has betrayed him.  Dwight’s regression makes Houston something less than a true title contender.  On the bright side for the Rockets, James Harden has firmly cemented himself as the best shooting guard in the league, and buyout additions Josh Smith and Corey Brewer provide depth and defense.  Harden made strides on the defensive end this season, but the team’s overall defense is not in great shape heading into the playoffs, following season-ending thumb surgery to Patrick Beverley. 

Luckily for Houston, Dallas’ pieces just don’t seem to fit together.  Dirk can still light up the scoreboard, but his lateral movement isn’t what it was, and he can’t effectively guard many NBA-caliber players one-on-one for more than a few seconds, or chase people around screens.  Amare Stoudamire, acquired late in the season, has paid big dividends on offense, but like Dirk, is a limited defender.  Chandler Parsons has not taken any steps forward this year, and Rajon Rondo has destroyed the team’s spacing since being acquired mid-season.  This is still a formidable bunch given their championship pedigree, but it is hard to build a case for them making it very far in the playoffs as currently constructed.  Monta Ellis, the team’s best offensive player, has struggled since the Rondo trade, and is not big enough to guard Harden. 

The Pick: Rockets in 6