Pacers vs Heat: Redux

For basketball fans, the NBA playoffs are an oasis of quality in a desert of mediocrity.  No more Milwaukee vs Philadelphia brick-fests, no more Denver vs Minnesota games in which neither side even makes an effort to play defense, and no more games that don't matter.  We are down to the final 21 games of the season.  Whichever team can win 8 of 14 wins the title.  Here are the combatants in the Eastern Conference:

Indiana vs Miami

I still have no idea how the Pacers beat the mighty Wizards; Washington was the more talented team, but managed to display a shocking amount of nerves, greenness, and poor decision-making.  Between that combination and Indiana's stifling defense, the Pacers managed to win the series.  John Wall and friends probably should have beaten Indiana in five games; one can only hope that they learn from their subpar showing and improve next year.  Indiana meanwhile seems to have shaken off at least some of the cobwebs; they played this entire season with the goal of obtaining home court advantage against Miami, and now it is theirs.

In the Washington series, Indiana received stellar performances from Paul George, as per usual, and from David West, showing flashes of his form from seven years ago.  Most importantly, Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert seemed to awaken from his five-month coma.  He is one of the keys to victory against Miami.  Oddly enough, the Pacers actually match up better with the Heat than with the Wizards. Washington was able to hurt Indiana with a lightning fast, elite point guard, while Miami has Mario Chalmers.  Washington was able to stretch Indiana's defense with a long-range bomber at the shooting guard spot, while Miami's Dwayne Wade should never be allowed to shoot from more than 18 feet away from the hoop.  That paucity of shooting at the two guard allows Lance Stephenson to take another full step towards the middle of the court, taking valuable driving lanes away from LeBron.  Washington additionally was able to physically dominate for stretches on the inside, relying on the strength and toughness of Gortat and Nene, while Miami's interior "behemoths" encompass the rail thin Chris Bosh, recovering drug addict Birdman (who always appears mere meals away from anorexia), and 6'7 Udonis Haslem, who peaked as a basketball player roughly ten years ago.   Who among that triumvirate can guard lumbering 7'2 Roy Hibbert and burly bouncer-in-training David West, is anyone's guess.  There is always Greg Oden's corpse waiting to be dragged off the bench in case of emergencies, and the size disparity in this matchup very well may constitute a time for Spoelstra to break the glass encasing and insert the former number one pick.

Of course, nobody knows how good Greg Oden is at this point of his career.  He has gotten a bit of playing time this season, and it is clear that even in his mostly-broken state, he is still a better option to guard Hibbert than anyone else on the Heat's roster.  What he provides on offense is offensive rebounds and a big body with which to set screens.  On the downside for Miami, Oden may actually be even slower than Hibbert, is rusty, does not move well laterally, and likely has stamina issues (although that may not be much of a concern if Miami, as expected, only uses him briefly).  Indiana would surely counter Oden's presence by putting him in pick and rolls, to take him away from the basket and create serious mismatches.

Indiana is the rare team with the perimeter defenders to deal with both LeBron and Wade; Lance Stephenson is 6'5 230, with good foot speed and shocking strength for a shooting guard.  Dwayne Wade, unlike the Pacers' previous shooting guard opponent (Bradley Beal), is a terrible shooter from long range, and gets the bulk of his points inside (post-ups, cuts to the basket, and put-backs) and on drives.  Against Stephenson, Wade's post-ups will lack their normal efficacy, as Wade will be at a rare size and strength disadvantage for his position.  When Stephenson has the ball, he works well in the post, and has shown that he may be the best passer on the team.  If he can get Wade in foul trouble, LeBron will have to handle an even greater share of the offensive load.

Paul George guards LeBron as well as anyone, and of perhaps equal import, makes LeBron work on the other end.  George has shown repeatedly that he possesses the ability to blow by LeBron and finish over the top of anyone.  George is getting better each year, while LeBron has reached the plateau of his powers.  The difference between the two is smaller than it was even last year.

George Hill has a much easier job checking Mario Chalmers than he did guarding John Wall; Hill is an excellent defender, and can guard Wade for stretches as well, due to his quickness, smarts, and long arms.  On the other side of the ball, Hill is more of a shooting guard in a point guard's body, rather than an actual point guard.  Chalmers is a solid if not spectacular defender, but Hill should not struggle to get 10-14 points per game in this series.  If he can get that number up to the 17-20 range, the Pacers will win the series.

Chris Bosh is perhaps the best non-German power forward at hitting long jump shots.  This year he even showed the ability to step behind the three-point line and knock shots down from deep.  If Miami chooses to move Bosh far away from the rim to create driving lanes, the way Indiana plays Bosh will be crucial.  If he hits a few 3s, Miami will be hard to stop.  If he misses and West sags off of him, the driving lanes will vanish.  Spoelstra may try to establish Bosh from deep or at least from midrange early, even having him move without the ball and making West chase him around the court, a serious role change for the burly Indiana power forward.  On the other end, look for West to try to use his size and strength to bully Bosh.  Last year when these two teams met in the playoffs, West missed a lot of short shots, due partially to the length and quickness of Bosh and Birdman.  If West had converted those, the Pacers would have gone to the Finals.

Prediction:  The Heat have the ability to clamp down in a way that no other team really does; LeBron can guard everyone on the court and be everywhere at any given moment.  Indiana's defense is stifling, but the team lacks shooting.  Chris Copeland, acquired as a free agent from the Knicks, could be the X Factor in this series due to his sweet stroke, but Vogel seems unable to figure out how to use him.

The Pacers were the ultimate enigma this year; they were the best team in basketball for much of the season, then became a .500 team after the all All-Star break.  They struggled against a 38 win team in Atlanta playing without its best player, and then got lucky to beat a young and inexperienced Wizards' team.  That being said, they know Miami, they hate Miami, and they have the size, athleticism, and defense to stop Miami.  This series will come down to the ends of games; which team will be able to impose its will when each possession counts?  LeBron is still the best player alive, and he will either make shots or draw contact (which the referees always reward due to his star status and hysterical complaints).  HEAT in 7.  

Conference Semifinals, Part 1

After undoubtedly the greatest first round in NBA playoff history, we move on to a field of 8.  Part 1 will break down the matchup between the mighty Wizards and the bipolar Pacers, and the post-racial Clippers against the exposed Thunder.

WIZARDS vs pacers

Ok, I capitalized Wizards and didn't do the same for the Pacers because I am a homer; what do you want from me?  I will still try to be objective.

Point Guard:  Wall vs George Hill.  Advantage: Wall
John Wall may be the fastest guy with the ball in the entire league.  When he goes to the hoop, he is quite difficult to stop.  Wall's combo of speed, handle, height, vertical, body control, and improved court vision make him an elite player.  His midrange jumper has markedly improved, as his confidence in his three-point shot.  Wall is not a great defender, despite his considerable physical talent.  Far too often he gets embarrassed in pick and roll situations, and against the Bulls, Wall had great difficulty corralling DJ Augustin.

George Hill is a point guard in name only.  On San Antonio, Popovich used Hill as a 2 guard with Parker at the 1 and Ginobili at the 3.  Hill is a cocksure midrange shooter and an excellent defender, fleet of foot, with long arms, a penchant for staying in front of his man, and great closing ability.  He hit his fair share of clutch shots with San Antonio, playing off the brilliance of Parker and Ginobili.  When asked to be the ball handler of record for a team, he doesn't have what it takes to be a great player.  He is not a special offensive player by any means, but is solid.

This series will see Hill occasionally outclassed; Wall is the rare point guard at 6'4 who is taller and faster than Hill, a good defender standing 6'3.  The Hawks ran roughshod over Atlanta's vaunted defense, with Jeff Teague playing the role of the protagonist.  Anything Teague can do, Wall can do better (hopefully).  If the Wiz run pick and rolls with Wall, it will be interesting to see if the Pacers trap Wall, go under the screen to make Wall shoot, go over and have the big show (opening up a passing lane to a cutting Nene or Gortat), or switch.  If the Pacers switch, Wall should be able to get wherever he wants.  If they go under screens, he has to make them pay.  If they trap, the Wizards have to pass it around and make the Pacers scramble on defense until a good shot presents itself.

Shooting Guard:  Bradley Beal vs Lance Stephenson.  Advantage: Tie

Beal is a far better shooter than Stephenson, and also has more athleticism.  The Ray Allen comparisons are not that far off the mark, at least as it pertains to Beal's stroke.  Defensively, Beal is not exactly setting the world on fire.  He is not a great one on one defender, and his positioning on pick and roll coverage is suspect.  If Beal can consistently  hit his jumpers and beat Stephenson off the dribble (both of which are within the realm of possibility), the Wizards will be in great shape.  

Stephenson is a 230 pound manimal of a shooting guard who averaged 9 rebounds per game against Atlanta in the first round.  He is powerful, determined, and legitimately may be crazy.  I would liken him to Tyreke Evans, but with a better jump shot, more intensity, and a meth habit.  Stephenson is a better passer than Beal, but this season showed a propensity to assist-hunt in order to pursue triple-doubles, causing the offense to stagnate in the process.

Small Forward:  Trevor Ariza vs Paul George.  Advantage: George

Paul George has proven to be an elite player; he has a very good handle, a sweet stroke, great hops, and is a stopper on the defensive end.  We saw last year in the playoffs that George had no fear of LeBron, playing excellent D on him and going at him hard, including blowing by James to dunk on Birdman's soul.  This year he again showed off his quicks, handle, and vertical, crossing up LeBron once again and dunking on his head.  In the first round against Atlanta, George put up 23 ppg, 11 rebounds per game, 5 assists per game, and 2.5 steals per game while shooting better than 40% from the three-point line.  He has to play great for the Pacers to win this series.

Trevor Ariza is a gifted athlete, shooter, and defender, but has never put it all together (mostly because of his lack of great handle and lack of desire to be a go-to guy).  He has the ability to disrupt George on offense, and make him work on defense.  If Ariza is able to keep George in front of him, the Pacers will be in trouble.  The success (or lack thereof) of pick and rolls with George and a Pacer big will go a long way to determining who wins this series.

Power Forward:  Nene vs David West.  Advantage: Nene

David West has been living off his name more than his game for several seasons now.  He underwhelmed against Miami last year, and has continued to do so this season.  He averaged 13 points, 7 rebounds, and a surprising 5 assists per game against Atlanta, a team missing its best player (and best big) in Al Horford.  West has a good outside shot, is a strong and physical man on the inside, and is great at scowling.  If he leads his team in assists again in this series, it probably does not bode well for the Pacers.

Going against West will be the oft-injured Nene, aka Brazilian Fabio, aka the biggest enigma in basketball.  Nene is actually bigger and stronger than West, has a far more refined offensive game, but has never reached his potential.  Against Chicago, as he assaulted Joakim Noah and made a laughingstock out of Noah's Defensive Player of the Year win, it appeared as though Nene was finally starting to appreciate the gravity of the moment, at least until he applied a muay Thai clinch to Jimmy Butler and headbutted him, like a complete idiot.


Center:  Martin "The Polish Hammer" Gortat vs Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert.  Advantage: Gortat

Marcin Gortat did not have a great series against the hapless Bulls.  He shot under 40%, and missed a lot of close shots that he normally makes.  Defensively though he was solid, collecting 10 rebounds (mostly in traffic) and 2 blocks per game.  He will have a massive footspeed advantage against Hibbert, but his back to the basket game will be nullified by Hibbert's size and length.  If Gortat can hit his open midrange shots, he will draw Big Slow away from the rim and open up driving lanes for Wall and Beal.

Roy Hibbert, once the toast of basketball fans for how he defends the rim, went south in a big way this season.  Against Atlanta, despite being 7'2, he shot 37% from the field and averaged 5 and under 4 rebounds per game.  Yikes.   Who knows why Hibbert has regressed so much.  One theory is that he was hurt when the Pacers brought in Andrew Bynum, who, when even somewhat healthy, is a far better player than Hibbert (of course, the caveat "when healthy" for Bynum is an asterisk the size of a small country).  Whatever the cause, Hibbert seems to have lost his basketball mojo.  Will he get it back against Washington?  There is no evidence to suggest he will.

Bench:  Advantage: Wizards

Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and forever undersized Trevor Booker give the Wizards a solid 8 man rotation, to say nothing of Drew Gooden and his antics (always something to watch).  The Pacers counter with the solid CJ Watson, the disappearing Evan Turner (fresh off his brawl with teammate Lance Stephenson), fifteen-years past his prime Luis Scola and his 3 inch vertical leap, and Ian Mahinmi.  An X factor could be Chris Copeland, who finally got a bit of run against Atlanta.  He is big enough to play the 4, and consistently shoots the 3 at over 40%.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Indiana go small with West, Copeland, George, Stephenson, and Hill, if things get desperate.

Pick:  Wizards in 6.  

I realize that Indiana is a far more experienced team, and if I weren't a homer I would probably pick them.  However, it is hard to ignore how much they have sucked the last half of the year.  It took them 7 games to beat a team in the first round which finished below .500, and was playing without its best player.  Washington has a better backcourt, better bigs, a better bench, and guys in Ariza and Webster who can at least make Paul George really work for his points.  Defensively, Indiana is supposed to be a juggernaut, but they don't really resemble the bunch who pushed Miami to the limit.  If I am wrong, I look forward to seeing Paul George and LeBron play again, but I am not yet ready to say that Indiana's 2 game winning streak (games 6 and 7 against the Hawks) means anything.



Clippers vs Thunder

I don't have time for a real breakdown, but this series promises to be amazing.  Durant is the best offensive player alive, Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league, Griffin elevated himself to a legitimate MVP candidate this year, and Chris Paul is still likely the best point guard alive, although he has never been good enough to propel a team to the Finals.

The Clippers have depth in spades; Redick, Crawford, Barnes, and even Jared Dudley can shoot the ball and stretch the floor.  Inside they have Shawn Kemp 2.0 and DeAndre Jordan, who looks like he could dunk on a 12 foot rim.  Against the Warriors, missing their defensive anchor in Andrew Bynum, Jordan seemed to get EVERY rebound, with series averages of 15 rebounds and 4 blocks per contest.  Yet despite that size advantage, the Warriors took LAC to 7 games.  Against the tremendous Serge Ibaka (at least defensively), scowling Kendrick Perkins, grizzled veteran Nick Collison, and rugged shot-blocking rookie behemoth Steven Adams, the Clippers will not dominate the paint as they did last series.  If Blake can't draw double teams and can't score over Ibaka, the Clippers are in trouble.  Moreover, there is nobody on their roster who can check Durant.  AT ALL.  I expect him to get more than 30 points a game, and for the Thunder to overcome their depth issues through the individual brilliance of Durant and Westbrook.   After dealing with the suffocating defense of Memphis for 7 games, the Clippers' defense will seem rather lax by comparison.

Pick:  Thunder in 6.