WIZARDS vs pacers
Ok, I capitalized Wizards and didn't do the same for the Pacers because I am a homer; what do you want from me? I will still try to be objective.
Point Guard: Wall vs George Hill. Advantage: Wall
John Wall may be the fastest guy with the ball in the entire league. When he goes to the hoop, he is quite difficult to stop. Wall's combo of speed, handle, height, vertical, body control, and improved court vision make him an elite player. His midrange jumper has markedly improved, as his confidence in his three-point shot. Wall is not a great defender, despite his considerable physical talent. Far too often he gets embarrassed in pick and roll situations, and against the Bulls, Wall had great difficulty corralling DJ Augustin.
George Hill is a point guard in name only. On San Antonio, Popovich used Hill as a 2 guard with Parker at the 1 and Ginobili at the 3. Hill is a cocksure midrange shooter and an excellent defender, fleet of foot, with long arms, a penchant for staying in front of his man, and great closing ability. He hit his fair share of clutch shots with San Antonio, playing off the brilliance of Parker and Ginobili. When asked to be the ball handler of record for a team, he doesn't have what it takes to be a great player. He is not a special offensive player by any means, but is solid.
This series will see Hill occasionally outclassed; Wall is the rare point guard at 6'4 who is taller and faster than Hill, a good defender standing 6'3. The Hawks ran roughshod over Atlanta's vaunted defense, with Jeff Teague playing the role of the protagonist. Anything Teague can do, Wall can do better (hopefully). If the Wiz run pick and rolls with Wall, it will be interesting to see if the Pacers trap Wall, go under the screen to make Wall shoot, go over and have the big show (opening up a passing lane to a cutting Nene or Gortat), or switch. If the Pacers switch, Wall should be able to get wherever he wants. If they go under screens, he has to make them pay. If they trap, the Wizards have to pass it around and make the Pacers scramble on defense until a good shot presents itself.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal vs Lance Stephenson. Advantage: Tie
Beal is a far better shooter than Stephenson, and also has more athleticism. The Ray Allen comparisons are not that far off the mark, at least as it pertains to Beal's stroke. Defensively, Beal is not exactly setting the world on fire. He is not a great one on one defender, and his positioning on pick and roll coverage is suspect. If Beal can consistently hit his jumpers and beat Stephenson off the dribble (both of which are within the realm of possibility), the Wizards will be in great shape.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza vs Paul George. Advantage: George
Paul George has proven to be an elite player; he has a very good handle, a sweet stroke, great hops, and is a stopper on the defensive end. We saw last year in the playoffs that George had no fear of LeBron, playing excellent D on him and going at him hard, including blowing by James to dunk on Birdman's soul. This year he again showed off his quicks, handle, and vertical, crossing up LeBron once again and dunking on his head. In the first round against Atlanta, George put up 23 ppg, 11 rebounds per game, 5 assists per game, and 2.5 steals per game while shooting better than 40% from the three-point line. He has to play great for the Pacers to win this series.
Trevor Ariza is a gifted athlete, shooter, and defender, but has never put it all together (mostly because of his lack of great handle and lack of desire to be a go-to guy). He has the ability to disrupt George on offense, and make him work on defense. If Ariza is able to keep George in front of him, the Pacers will be in trouble. The success (or lack thereof) of pick and rolls with George and a Pacer big will go a long way to determining who wins this series.
Power Forward: Nene vs David West. Advantage: Nene
David West has been living off his name more than his game for several seasons now. He underwhelmed against Miami last year, and has continued to do so this season. He averaged 13 points, 7 rebounds, and a surprising 5 assists per game against Atlanta, a team missing its best player (and best big) in Al Horford. West has a good outside shot, is a strong and physical man on the inside, and is great at scowling. If he leads his team in assists again in this series, it probably does not bode well for the Pacers.
Going against West will be the oft-injured Nene, aka Brazilian Fabio, aka the biggest enigma in basketball. Nene is actually bigger and stronger than West, has a far more refined offensive game, but has never reached his potential. Against Chicago, as he assaulted Joakim Noah and made a laughingstock out of Noah's Defensive Player of the Year win, it appeared as though Nene was finally starting to appreciate the gravity of the moment, at least until he applied a muay Thai clinch to Jimmy Butler and headbutted him, like a complete idiot.
Center: Martin "The Polish Hammer" Gortat vs Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert. Advantage: Gortat
Marcin Gortat did not have a great series against the hapless Bulls. He shot under 40%, and missed a lot of close shots that he normally makes. Defensively though he was solid, collecting 10 rebounds (mostly in traffic) and 2 blocks per game. He will have a massive footspeed advantage against Hibbert, but his back to the basket game will be nullified by Hibbert's size and length. If Gortat can hit his open midrange shots, he will draw Big Slow away from the rim and open up driving lanes for Wall and Beal.
Roy Hibbert, once the toast of basketball fans for how he defends the rim, went south in a big way this season. Against Atlanta, despite being 7'2, he shot 37% from the field and averaged 5 and under 4 rebounds per game. Yikes. Who knows why Hibbert has regressed so much. One theory is that he was hurt when the Pacers brought in Andrew Bynum, who, when even somewhat healthy, is a far better player than Hibbert (of course, the caveat "when healthy" for Bynum is an asterisk the size of a small country). Whatever the cause, Hibbert seems to have lost his basketball mojo. Will he get it back against Washington? There is no evidence to suggest he will.
Bench: Advantage: Wizards
Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and forever undersized Trevor Booker give the Wizards a solid 8 man rotation, to say nothing of Drew Gooden and his antics (always something to watch). The Pacers counter with the solid CJ Watson, the disappearing Evan Turner (fresh off his brawl with teammate Lance Stephenson), fifteen-years past his prime Luis Scola and his 3 inch vertical leap, and Ian Mahinmi. An X factor could be Chris Copeland, who finally got a bit of run against Atlanta. He is big enough to play the 4, and consistently shoots the 3 at over 40%. I wouldn't be shocked to see Indiana go small with West, Copeland, George, Stephenson, and Hill, if things get desperate.
Pick: Wizards in 6.
I realize that Indiana is a far more experienced team, and if I weren't a homer I would probably pick them. However, it is hard to ignore how much they have sucked the last half of the year. It took them 7 games to beat a team in the first round which finished below .500, and was playing without its best player. Washington has a better backcourt, better bigs, a better bench, and guys in Ariza and Webster who can at least make Paul George really work for his points. Defensively, Indiana is supposed to be a juggernaut, but they don't really resemble the bunch who pushed Miami to the limit. If I am wrong, I look forward to seeing Paul George and LeBron play again, but I am not yet ready to say that Indiana's 2 game winning streak (games 6 and 7 against the Hawks) means anything.
Clippers vs Thunder
I don't have time for a real breakdown, but this series promises to be amazing. Durant is the best offensive player alive, Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league, Griffin elevated himself to a legitimate MVP candidate this year, and Chris Paul is still likely the best point guard alive, although he has never been good enough to propel a team to the Finals.
The Clippers have depth in spades; Redick, Crawford, Barnes, and even Jared Dudley can shoot the ball and stretch the floor. Inside they have Shawn Kemp 2.0 and DeAndre Jordan, who looks like he could dunk on a 12 foot rim. Against the Warriors, missing their defensive anchor in Andrew Bynum, Jordan seemed to get EVERY rebound, with series averages of 15 rebounds and 4 blocks per contest. Yet despite that size advantage, the Warriors took LAC to 7 games. Against the tremendous Serge Ibaka (at least defensively), scowling Kendrick Perkins, grizzled veteran Nick Collison, and rugged shot-blocking rookie behemoth Steven Adams, the Clippers will not dominate the paint as they did last series. If Blake can't draw double teams and can't score over Ibaka, the Clippers are in trouble. Moreover, there is nobody on their roster who can check Durant. AT ALL. I expect him to get more than 30 points a game, and for the Thunder to overcome their depth issues through the individual brilliance of Durant and Westbrook. After dealing with the suffocating defense of Memphis for 7 games, the Clippers' defense will seem rather lax by comparison.
Pick: Thunder in 6.
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