Fight Breakdown: Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen

Chael Sonnen vs Jon Jones

In preparation for writing this column, yours truly has done a fair bit of research on the career of Chael Sonnen (read: watching youtube videos of Chael dominating, then tapping out immediately after getting caught in a submission).  Losses to Jeremy Horn (x3), Forrest Griffin, Trevor Prangley, Babalu Sobral, Demian Maia, and Anderson Silva (among others) have proved to be the defining moments of an otherwise stellar career. 

Tomorrow night, facing the best pound for pound fighter in mma history not named Fedor, Sonnen is going to find himself in an interesting position: against an opponent he cannot take down.  There is almost unanimous agreement that Chael will lose tomorrow night; the more interesting question is how he will lose. 

Breakdown: On the Feet

Jon Jones is not a great striker, but he has a combination of skills and physical traits that make him formidable on the feet.  Jones possesses surprising agility and speed for a man his size.  Those traits, combined with his imaginative combinations, surprising flexibility, penchant for violence, raptor-like reach, and complete lack of fear of getting taken down, make him dangerous.  Having seen all of his UFC fights, several things stand out.  Jon Jones is not confident in punching exchanges; he is additionally vulnerable to quick-fisted strikers who have the footspeed and movement to get inside of his reach, and can make him pay for throwing kicks. 

 

The only time in Jones’ career in which he legitimately looked like the lesser fighter was in the first round of his title defense against Lyoto Machida. 

  Against a foe fleeter of hand and foot, with a PhD in movement and angles, Jones looked lost.  Machida pot-shotted him all round, and kept Jones off balance.  Jon likes to use his kicks to control the distance, but against someone who was able to control the range (and in so doing, counter Jones’ kicks with effective punches), Jones had little to offer on the feet.  After more of the same in the early part of the second round, Jones finally was able to take Machida down, land a massive, blinding (literally—Machida said he could not see) elbow, and finish ‘The Dragon’ with a choke.  Jones showed good composure on the feet in the fight, and the ability to respond to challenging situations. 

Against Rampage, a fearsome puncher with limited footspeed and flexibility, Jones landed a series of kicks—front kicks, spin kicks, knees, and low kicks.  He was able to control the distance and batter Rampage (although never came close to stopping him, or ever seemed to hurt him, actually).  In the most memorable moment of the fight, Jones actually ran away from Rampage when the latter finally got into punching range.  Jones does not have a bad chin, but he does not like getting hit. 

Against Rashad Evans, who possesses much better foot speed (but a far softer jaw) than Rampage, Jon Jones utilized elbows in a way I had never seen before in MMA.  He literally used his elbows as fists: 

Against Stephan Bonner, Shogun, and Matt Hamill, Jones showed off more of his amazing and unorthodox striking skills:

  

By contrast, Chael Sonnen’s repertoire is quite limited.  Instead of flashy kicks and spinning elbows, Chael relies on his tight boxing, bully strength, and excellent takedowns to create openings to exploit on the feet. 

  

While Chael has good hands, nice head movement, and aggression working for him, he is not super-fast, and his chin is nothing to write home about.  Further, given how good of a wrestler Jones is, as well as how dangerous Jones is in the clinch with his knees and elbows, Chael is not going to have many good options striking; if he lets Jones determine the distance, Jon will use his feet to keep Chael away.  If Chael closes the distance, he is going to find himself running into knees, elbows, and takedowns.    Advantage: Jones.

Takedowns:  

In the clinch, Jon Jones has shown a crazy combination of strikes, foot sweeps, and grip strength.  Chael is actually likely to be the stronger man, and has a better wrestling pedigree than Jones, but despite that, he is going to find himself in a world of hurt (likely on his back) if he lets Jones get a hold of him. Why?  Because Jones' combination of wrestling acumen, athleticism, size, fluidity of movement, and creativity make him the de facto best wrestler in the weight class, regardless of amateur wrestling accomplishments.  

 

Thus, it would seem that Chael’s only real chance is to take Jones down, while also avoiding the clinch.  That means shooting in on a man with extremely long limbs, a tremendous wrestling background, and sharp knees.  If anyone can take Jones down, it is Chael; Sonnen has explosive strength in his double-leg, has a knack for getting in takedown range, and has the mental fortitude to keep fighting for the takedown if his initial effort is rebuffed.  

 

As we saw in the first Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen fight, Chael also has the ability to transition from punches to takedowns quite well--he is no Fedor in this regard (enjoy the GIF of the GOAT below), but he is still talented enough at both punching and takedowns (especially the latter) to keep his opponents off-guard.

 Chael is no Fedor:

However, even if Chael can get Jones down, so what?  Chael was on top of Anderson Silva for a full 6 rounds and wasn’t able to finish ‘The Spider’, although he certainly did land a considerable number of damaging blows.




Chael is going to need a similar output against Jones, and has to pray that he can land something big to hurt the champion.   In terms of submissions, Chael has scored several during his career, but more often than not, if he is involved in a fight ending in a submission, it is Chael tapping out.  

If, on the other hand, Jones ends up on top of Sonnen, the game is over.  Jon Jones is the single most violent fighter I have ever seen in the UFC (Wanderlei Silva in Pride was a more violent fighter, but the rules in those days favored such violence, given the inclusion of soccer kicks and head stomps).   Jones gets more torque on his elbows than anyone in the history of the sport due to a combination of wingspan and technique.  He is a savage in the cage, a true master of inflicting terrible damage.  

Breaking Brandon Vera's face: 

Choking out Bader:

Choking out Machida:

Choking out Rampage:

Beating Shogun to the point that I was worried for the latter's life.  Notice that Shogun actually taps out AFTER the ref has already stopped the fight:

PREDICTION: Jones KO 2

Guest Blog: Fight Preview: Roy Nelson v. Cheick Kongo

Fight Preview: Roy Nelson v. Cheick Kongo

 

by Jake Plumar

Saturday’s matchup between the 2 heavyweights on Saturday’s card presents an interesting matchup of techniques and styles between two fighters who are trying to make the jump to the top rung of the heavyweight fighters.  I am also hard pressed to imagine two fighters that have more drastically different physiques.

 

If you are hoping to see a technical submission chess match on Saturday night, then you will need to watch at least one other fight.  Neither of these blokes are known for their submission skills.  Cheick Kongo has not legitimately submitted anyone since 2003 and Roy Nelson’s submission draught goes back almost that far with 2006 being the last year that Roy Nelson submitted anyone.   

I believe this fight is going to be more one-sided than people think.  Roy Nelson has the ability to stand with Kongo, but Big Country holds the distinct advantage in the wrestling category.  No one can forget Kongo’s monster knockout of Pat Barry back in 2011, but aside from that destruction, I haven’t seen the type of premier striking that I think could give Roy Nelson problems.  On the wrestling side, you only need to watch a few minutes of Kongo’s 2009 tape against Cain Velasquez to see how much of a disadvantage Kongo has in this area.  While Big Country isn’t Cain Velasquez, he can certainly hold his own in the wrestling category and should be able to take Kongo down to the mat with some frequency. 

In the end, I see this fight going to Roy Nelson by TKO in the second.  It’s interesting to note that Roy Nelson has not won by decision since 2007.  His last 10 victories have been either by TKO or KO.  In getting to the TKO, Roy Nelson will wear out Kongo by taking him to the mat and then using his high level ground and pound to dominate Kongo. 

While appearances alone would give this fight to Kongo in a heartbeat, thankfully for Roy Nelson, the fights occur in the octagon rather than on the pages of US Weekly. 

(Almost) Daily Links

The effect of drone strikes on the people of Yemen and their views of America

The roots of Chechen rage (free registration to foreign policy may be required, I'm not sure)

Tragedy strikes Bangledesh

Dana White's head almost explodes talking about the Culinary Union in Las Vegas (lol) blocking MMA legalization in NY

In Israel, Deputy Finance Minister Mickey Levy on Wednesday described the ultra-Orthodox demographic as "parasites"

We are doomed

Guest Fight Preview: Phil Davis vs Vinny Magalhaes

Fight Preview:  Phil Davis vs Vinny Magalhaes

by Tarik The Great

Saturday-night, the UFC number 8 ranked light-heavy weight mixed martial artist, Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis, looks to quiet and end the 6 fight win streak of the non-ranked and trash-talking Vinny "Pezao" Magalhaes.  Mr. Wonderful has indicated that he simply wants to submit someone whom he believes to be biting off more than he can chew, while Pezao has stated that Phil Davis is overrated and he will expose that fact. Mr. Wonderful begs to differ.  Not only does he promise a win, he thinks he'll get it via submission.

Bold words, but can he back it up? Phil Davis has 4 submission victories to his name, none of which were against a world class jiu jitsu practitioner such as Vinny Magalhaes.  Vinny Magalhaes is a submission specialist with 8 out of his 10 wins coming via submission. He also won gold at the 2011 Abu Dhabi Combat Club, defeating the great Fabricio Werdum, no easy feat.  Phil Davis, on the other hand, is primarily a wrestler, but saying that he is just a wrestler doesn't do him justice. Phil Davis is an elite wrestler with decent striking. Mr. Wonderful generally utilizes his superior wrestling to dictate the pace and location of where the fight takes place.  Vinny Magalhaes, on the other hand, has demonstrated improved striking, but make no doubt about it, he is a vicious submission fighter, possibly the light heavyweight version of Frank Mir. As a matter of fact Vinny took a page out of Mir's pre-fight playbook when he stated he'd like to pop Davis' arm and take it home. 

Now that Saturday-night is almost here, it's time to put the trash talk aside and see how these 2 men match up. Vinny Malgahaes boasts a record of 10 wins and 5 losses.  Interestingly, the majority of those losses have been via decision. Phil Davis has a record of 10 wins and 1 loss, his sole loss coming via decision.

Looking at these men's records, in addition to their fighting styles, it's easy to think that Mr. Wonderful wins this fight via decision, but it seems as though Pezao has found the pep in his step. Vinny Magalhaes has been on a tear since being released from the UFC. He has won 7 out of his last 8, with finishes in every fight. Pezao has improved his strike game and poses a real danger to Mr. Wonderful, both on the feet and on the ground. Though Phil Davis has 4 submission victories, it is not likely that Vinny Magalhaes will be submitted by him.  Despite Pezao's resurgence, this fight will not be a barn burner. It will be a "war of attrition," the kind of war in which Phil Davis is a seasoned veteran.  On Saturday-night, Phil Davis will continue to do what Phil Davis does, and that's set up the takedown with strikes, rinse and repeat. Phil Davis will grind out a unanimous decision victory. 

Guest Blog Post: Buried in Backatown

Buried in Backatown

C.L.Ford

            There is a small town just west of the Mississippi River and north of New Orleans called Donaldsonville, Louisiana.           

          The front street- historic Donaldsonville- with its brick built cathedral and open town-square park, looks more like a re-creation of Andy Griffith’s Mayberry than a modern city. Some of the side streets leading to the front are cobblestone. The storefront shops offer vintage overhead coverings and hanging signage. The white-washed gazebo shaded by willow and oak trees and surrounded by trimmed grass centers the town’s Southern country charm. The shotgun houses that line the street between the factory and Hwy 1 give the appearance of an aged, but lively community. 

Just down the road, modern enterprises such as Little Ceasars, McDonald’s and CVS dot the street. Once the road curves, there’s a Wendy’s. Dollar Tree and Walmart greet the town visitors from the back. With so much going on, it’s hard to notice what lies beyond the main drag. I didn’t want to know. I chose to keep driving until I reached my destination: Lowery Elementary. The place had become a kind of hell and every day, I angrily drove past the factories and into this quaint little town to teach disrespectful children in a terribly built “new” school. Past the facade of small town living, U.S.A.

But behind the main street, just beyond the train track and over the bayou lies the truth- Backatown. Backatown is America’s hidden shame: poor people aren’t abroad. Poor people, destitute-starving poor people, save-the-children poor people, turn-the-tv-to-the-next-station-because-I-can’t-take-these-images poor people live right here in our right now.  The monster we’ve tried to hide with billboards and bridges and the clichéd railroad track to separate us from them still lives and breathes in this “other” place. And one thing it will not let this country forget: There is no poor like “country” poor.

In Backatown, there are few visitors, so strangers are automatically enemies until proven otherwise. In Backatown, men piss in the barely paved streets as old women sit on their lopsided porches. In Backatown, the projects are the nicer housing. Some of the houses are no more than glorified slave quarters (glorified only because they have doors). Split wooden planks, grayed from weathering and neglected, dot the neighborhood corners. Children play in overgrown weeds on dead-end corners wearing the same dirty hole-riddled uniforms that they come to school in. The metal pieces from the trailer homes slide sideways barely bolted together. Two makeshift shacks with dirt floors hold a multi-generation family. They sit outside until the air cools.

In Backatown, *[i]Jermeka plays outside with her friends. She’s shocked and excited, but mostly puzzled to see her teacher “back here.” When asked, she claimed a run-down white shotgun house nearby as her home. Once out of Jermeka’s listening range, the school secretary tells us that the pink shacks joined together behind the white house is her actual home. She and her many siblings live there, mostly watching each other as her mother works. Down the road, a third grade girl holds her infant sister like a beach ball. It’s the best she can to as she also tries to keep an eye on her two toddler-aged siblings, playing in the almost front yard.

In Backatown, there is a nine year old boy named *Daniel. Daniel is an angry kid. He’s frustrated and frustrating. He fights and screams and kicks. Daniel lives at 506 and ½ *West Number St. The house next to Daniel’s has  “506” spray-painted on the front of its puke green frame. Daniel’s home is a lean-to shed built on the side of the dilapidated house. The blue door boarder skips around the unpainted door, paint and wood chipped off the sides. On the door, in the tiniest block numbers, reads “506 ½.” This is the center of Daniel’s world. And so every night Daniel goes to sleep in maybe ½ of a bed.  He wakes up every day in ½ of a shed. He rides a bus to school so that he can get half a balanced meal and half an education- sometimes.  And somewhere along the line, this country decided it was acceptable for him to have half an existence. At some point, we closed one eye and squinted out the other, threw away his chances, gave him ½ an address, and call it justice. Daniel may be the homegrown nightmare awaiting this country, because Daniel’s angry. He doesn’t know why and he can’t explain it, but he knows something isn’t right, and he’s angry. Daniel’s angry and he has every right to be.

Behind Dupont and Ommet and CF industries is a river town named Donaldsonville, Louisiana. It is a microcosm of America- a beautiful finish built on top of a worn, crumpling community where hopelessness is kept at bay by a train track- for now. This place set aside is a shadow of our culture and our values. We mask it with multimillion dollar industries that are slowly killing the people that live there, the people whom these companies will not hire.  This place is called Backatown. Buried in Backatown, where only struggle and ugliness and anger make sense, lies America’s worst kept secret: the class war isn’t new and it isn’t on the middle class. The war on the poor rages just beneath the surface of our society. It has been for years. And it’s growing weary and more desperate and dangerous.

---

[i] * Denotes a name change

On breaking Boston, terrorism, and a dose of perspective

On breaking Boston, terrorism, and a dose of perspective.

Last night I was dismayed to see massive street celebrations in Boston, a city in which mere hours earlier, 4 people lost their lives, and countless others lost their limbs.  While it is certainly a relief that the two suspects are no longer a threat, what is there to celebrate, exactly?  Are we celebrating the return to our pre-Boston fear levels?  You know, when we thought America was invincible and beyond the reach of any act of terrorism (but not beyond the reach of gun deaths, of which there have been more than 3,500—not a typo—since the Newtown massacre in December).  Or are we celebrating America’s resiliency in the face of two young jihadists who brought one of America’s most important cities to its knees?   

All I keep reading is that Boston is unbreakable, Boston will come back stronger than ever, the terrorists messed with the wrong city, etc.  How can a city that was literally brought to a standstill by 2 men without any WMDs be unbreakable?   Boston is so strong that the entire city was shut down—airports, subway, streets, you name it. 

The (fairly obvious) truth is that Bostonians are no different than any other group of people.  There is no inherent strength of character that one has just from living in Boston.  What we consider to be tough circumstances are cake for the overwhelming majority of people on Earth.  The idea that Boston wasn’t “broken” by this tragedy shows the typical American ignorance towards the rest of the world, and an incredibly inflated sense of toughness.  3.4 million people die each year from a lack of clean water; I wonder if the presidents of the countries in which most of these deaths occur give press conferences after particularly bad outbreaks of water-based diseases;  do they laud the strength and courage of their citizens and the supremacy of their countries for being able to cope?  Most likely, such press conferences do not occur. 

We as Americans love to applaud ourselves without bothering to take a look at the world around us, or the consequences of our actions abroad.  Yes, thank God, people at the Boston Marathon conducted themselves heroically in a time of uncertainty and fear.   That does not however mean we are better or more courageous than anyone else; rather, it means that Americans are capable of showing compassion.

The talk of “messing with the wrong city” represents a kind of disturbing and fallacious logic; it implies that there is a right city in which it is ok to target innocent civilians.  Bostonians, to their credit, are not going to get up and flee en masse after one isolated incident.  Bravo.  I wonder if after one of the hundreds of car bombs that have rocked Iraq since we “liberated” the country, people took to the airwaves and newspapers to say that Baghdad or Kirkuk or Mosul was the wrong city to be messed with.  Me thinks not.  

Reading the American newspapers or watching American news would make one believe that the Boston attack was the worst event in human history.  Here are some events that have occurred in the last month: a NATO bomb in Afghanistan killed 11 children, while a suicide bomb in a courthouse killed an additional 44 in the country, and just yesterday, 13 Afghan police officers were murdered in their sleep.  Meanwhile 3 police officers in Mexico were murdered (adding to the total of 70,000 Mexicans killed in the unofficial drug war in the country over the last 10 years); a bomb blast at a coffee shop in Iraq killed at least 27 people; car bombs and air strikes rocked Syria, on the heels of a month in which more than 6,000 people died in the civil war there; anti-Muslim pogroms rocked Burma, leaving 43 dead; gun battles in the Central African Republic (CAR) left 13 dead, while an attack on a church in CAR killed 7 immediately, including 3 babies.

I bring up these events not to trivialize the severity of the attack in Boston, but to provide a reality check.   Our faux-reality bubble in which our actions abroad have no impact, and in which we are immune from threats, is not how most of the world lives.  Just as the switch from a draft to a volunteer army limited the domestic opposition to our voluntary wars (see Iraq, 2003), the mostly-successful efforts of the CIA/FBI/DHS  to prevent terrorism on our shores have softened and skewed the reality of our actions abroad.  The vast majority of Americans don’t really know what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor have we felt pain domestically as a response.  Thus, we have been tricked into believing that America was a safe zone, and that no terrorist would be able to/would dare attack us.  The despicable attack and subsequent capture/death of the terrorists in Boston should be greeted with a somber, thoughtful, humble response, not with giddy celebration.