For basketball fans, the NBA playoffs are an oasis of quality in a desert of mediocrity. No more Milwaukee vs Philadelphia brick-fests, no more Denver vs Minnesota games in which neither side even makes an effort to play defense, and no more games that don't matter. We are down to the final 21 games of the season. Whichever team can win 8 of 14 wins the title. Here are the combatants in the Eastern Conference:
Indiana vs Miami
I still have no idea how the Pacers beat the mighty Wizards; Washington was the more talented team, but managed to display a shocking amount of nerves, greenness, and poor decision-making. Between that combination and Indiana's stifling defense, the Pacers managed to win the series. John Wall and friends probably should have beaten Indiana in five games; one can only hope that they learn from their subpar showing and improve next year. Indiana meanwhile seems to have shaken off at least some of the cobwebs; they played this entire season with the goal of obtaining home court advantage against Miami, and now it is theirs.
In the Washington series, Indiana received stellar performances from Paul George, as per usual, and from David West, showing flashes of his form from seven years ago. Most importantly, Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert seemed to awaken from his five-month coma. He is one of the keys to victory against Miami. Oddly enough, the Pacers actually match up better with the Heat than with the Wizards. Washington was able to hurt Indiana with a lightning fast, elite point guard, while Miami has Mario Chalmers. Washington was able to stretch Indiana's defense with a long-range bomber at the shooting guard spot, while Miami's Dwayne Wade should never be allowed to shoot from more than 18 feet away from the hoop. That paucity of shooting at the two guard allows Lance Stephenson to take another full step towards the middle of the court, taking valuable driving lanes away from LeBron. Washington additionally was able to physically dominate for stretches on the inside, relying on the strength and toughness of Gortat and Nene, while Miami's interior "behemoths" encompass the rail thin Chris Bosh, recovering drug addict Birdman (who always appears mere meals away from anorexia), and 6'7 Udonis Haslem, who peaked as a basketball player roughly ten years ago. Who among that triumvirate can guard lumbering 7'2 Roy Hibbert and burly bouncer-in-training David West, is anyone's guess. There is always Greg Oden's corpse waiting to be dragged off the bench in case of emergencies, and the size disparity in this matchup very well may constitute a time for Spoelstra to break the glass encasing and insert the former number one pick.
Of course, nobody knows how good Greg Oden is at this point of his career. He has gotten a bit of playing time this season, and it is clear that even in his mostly-broken state, he is still a better option to guard Hibbert than anyone else on the Heat's roster. What he provides on offense is offensive rebounds and a big body with which to set screens. On the downside for Miami, Oden may actually be even slower than Hibbert, is rusty, does not move well laterally, and likely has stamina issues (although that may not be much of a concern if Miami, as expected, only uses him briefly). Indiana would surely counter Oden's presence by putting him in pick and rolls, to take him away from the basket and create serious mismatches.
Indiana is the rare team with the perimeter defenders to deal with both LeBron and Wade; Lance Stephenson is 6'5 230, with good foot speed and shocking strength for a shooting guard. Dwayne Wade, unlike the Pacers' previous shooting guard opponent (Bradley Beal), is a terrible shooter from long range, and gets the bulk of his points inside (post-ups, cuts to the basket, and put-backs) and on drives. Against Stephenson, Wade's post-ups will lack their normal efficacy, as Wade will be at a rare size and strength disadvantage for his position. When Stephenson has the ball, he works well in the post, and has shown that he may be the best passer on the team. If he can get Wade in foul trouble, LeBron will have to handle an even greater share of the offensive load.
Paul George guards LeBron as well as anyone, and of perhaps equal import, makes LeBron work on the other end. George has shown repeatedly that he possesses the ability to blow by LeBron and finish over the top of anyone. George is getting better each year, while LeBron has reached the plateau of his powers. The difference between the two is smaller than it was even last year.
George Hill has a much easier job checking Mario Chalmers than he did guarding John Wall; Hill is an excellent defender, and can guard Wade for stretches as well, due to his quickness, smarts, and long arms. On the other side of the ball, Hill is more of a shooting guard in a point guard's body, rather than an actual point guard. Chalmers is a solid if not spectacular defender, but Hill should not struggle to get 10-14 points per game in this series. If he can get that number up to the 17-20 range, the Pacers will win the series.
Chris Bosh is perhaps the best non-German power forward at hitting long jump shots. This year he even showed the ability to step behind the three-point line and knock shots down from deep. If Miami chooses to move Bosh far away from the rim to create driving lanes, the way Indiana plays Bosh will be crucial. If he hits a few 3s, Miami will be hard to stop. If he misses and West sags off of him, the driving lanes will vanish. Spoelstra may try to establish Bosh from deep or at least from midrange early, even having him move without the ball and making West chase him around the court, a serious role change for the burly Indiana power forward. On the other end, look for West to try to use his size and strength to bully Bosh. Last year when these two teams met in the playoffs, West missed a lot of short shots, due partially to the length and quickness of Bosh and Birdman. If West had converted those, the Pacers would have gone to the Finals.
Prediction: The Heat have the ability to clamp down in a way that no other team really does; LeBron can guard everyone on the court and be everywhere at any given moment. Indiana's defense is stifling, but the team lacks shooting. Chris Copeland, acquired as a free agent from the Knicks, could be the X Factor in this series due to his sweet stroke, but Vogel seems unable to figure out how to use him.
The Pacers were the ultimate enigma this year; they were the best team in basketball for much of the season, then became a .500 team after the all All-Star break. They struggled against a 38 win team in Atlanta playing without its best player, and then got lucky to beat a young and inexperienced Wizards' team. That being said, they know Miami, they hate Miami, and they have the size, athleticism, and defense to stop Miami. This series will come down to the ends of games; which team will be able to impose its will when each possession counts? LeBron is still the best player alive, and he will either make shots or draw contact (which the referees always reward due to his star status and hysterical complaints). HEAT in 7.
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