First Round Playoff Preview, Part 2

Spurs vs Clippers

Prepare yourselves for more Kawhi dunks.

This is a shame.  The Spurs and Clippers can make legitimate claims to being the second and best third teams in the NBA, and yet they square off in the first round.  Blame the ridiculousness that is NBA playoff seeding, in which division champions cannot be seeded below 4.  Fail.

The Clippers have frontcourt athleticism in spades, which has historically been the Spurs’ weakness (that and not having a proper small forward between Sean Elliott and Kawhi Leonard).  However, Boris Diaw has shown himself to be a surprisingly good one-on-one defender; he has nimble feet and enough bulk to not be bullied in the post.  DeAndre Jordan can jump out of the gym and rebounds his tail off, but his offensive game hasn’t evolved much beyond dunking.  That being said, he cannot be ignored on offense, because he is a potent offensive rebounder.   Tim Duncan can still score even against a beast like Jordan, as his game was never based on strength or athleticism.  Spencer Hawes, brought in to be a space creating big, has been a flop.   If Tiago Splitter’s sore calf keeps him out of action, the Spurs will be in severe trouble, as he is the team’s only big besides Duncan with the height and bulk to contend with Jordan.  Behind Splitter, the Spurs have to go to Aaron Baynes, who is barely an NBA-caliber player, and lacks Splitter’s ability to finish around the rim (and Splitter isn’t a great finisher anyway). 

The backcourt battle between these teams will be worth watching.  Tony Parker is a ball of energy, constantly attacking off the pick and roll, with a preternatural ability to get into the paint and draw contact or hit contested floaters.  Chris Paul is the best player I can think of to never make it to a conference finals; he is a monster on pick and rolls, is a deadeye midrange shooter, and is perhaps the best one-on-one defender in the NBA at the point guard position.  The Spurs will struggle to contain Paul and Blake Griffin or Paul and DeAndre Jordan on the pick and roll, but Popovich is better at making adjustments than any other coach, and the Spurs have incredible synergy on the defensive end.  The Spurs will adjust, and make someone else beat them. 

In many ways, this series could turn on the play of J.J. Redick.  The former Duke star causes difficulty for defenses with his constant movement and ability to knock down shots coming off of screens.  Like a poor man’s Kyle Korver, Redick causes defenses to bend in ways they are not intended to.  If Redick gets hot early, the Spurs will have to devote more attention than wanted to Redick, leading to open shots for other players.  San Antonio counters with talented and crafty defenders, namely Manu Ginobili and Danny Green.  Seeing a team over and over leads to defensive recognition, and Ginobili’s defensive instincts will get him into passing lanes to disrupt Redick’s catch and shoot opportunities. 

The small forward matchup is interesting only in the sense of trying to guess how many technical fouls Matt Barnes gets.  Kawhi Leonard has established himself as the best defensive wing in the league, and a blooming offensive force.  He has been a good three-point shooter for several years now, but he has finally started to show a more well-rounded offensive game.  He has otherworldly athleticism, and plays with a confidence that grows with each passing game.  As his offensive opportunities increase, Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan can get more rest, as Leonard carries more of the load. 

Given their ages and the amount of miles on their proverbial tires, it is doubtful that Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan will all play well in any given game.  However, given the team’s tremendous depth, it likely won’t matter.  Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Splitter are all proven playoff performers, and Cory Joseph’s emergence has given the team another heady defender. 

The Pick:  Spurs in 6

Portland vs Memphis

Get ready to see plenty of smiling Grizzlies in this series.

Poor Portland.  They lose Wes Matthews a month before the playoffs start, and now find themselves against the burliest, toughest team in the NBA.  As good as LaMarcus Aldrige is, the Blazers will be dominated in the low post, as the tag team of Gasol and Randolph will be superior to Aldridge and whomever he may be paired with (a veritable pu pu platter of Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard, and Joel Freeland). 

In the backcourt, defensive sieve and offensive star Damian Lillard will have his hands full on both ends with Mike Conley, and if he starts to get hot, Lillard will have to deal with Tony Allen, one of the best defensive guards in the NBA.  Aaron Affalo, brought in to be a super sixth man, finds himself now as the starter, and he will need to produce at a high level for Portland to have a shot.  The aforementioned Tony Allen, despite being a poor shooter, is a dangerous offensive player due to his cutting and offensive rebounding ability. 

At the small forward position, Nicholas Batum has badly regressed this season, often looking like a borderline D-League player.  The Grizzlies massively upgraded their team at the position by trading for Jeff Green, whose addition finally gives this team enough offensive firepower to credibly be a championship contender. 

The Pick: Grizzlies in 5. 

Atlanta Hawks vs New Jersey Nets

 

Deron will be in the same mood after this quick series.

The Hawks have ended the season on something of a down note; they lost their aura of invincibility.  The question is whether that was due to boredom, or if the league caught up to their tactics.  The team still sports perhaps the best power forward-center combo in the conference, the best shooter alive, a lockdown wing player in DeMarre Carroll, and a dynamic point guard in Jeff Teague. 

The Nets are an enigmatic bunch.  Despite highly paid stars like Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Deron Williams, the team barely made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is to say, they would have finished 15 games under .500 had they been in the Western Conference.  Despite their pathetic regular season campaign, the Nets are a dangerous bunch.  When Brook Lopez is healthy (roughly 10% of the season), he is as good of a post up player as there is in the NBA.  As fate would have it, he is healthy now.  Lopez will have a big size advantage against Al Horford, who is a solid defender.  Horford will have a massive foot speed advantage against Lopez on the other end, and the Nets may go small to counter.  Joe Johnson can play the power forward position, especially against Paul Millsap, and if Brook Lopez gets toasted too many times, the hyper-athletic Mason Plumlee will see more action. 

At the end of the day however, if the Hawks are healthy and unless Brook Lopez gets 35 a game, the Hawks will win this series easily.

The Pick:  Hawks in 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

The maestro.

Anything besides a sweep will be disappointing for Cleveland.  After floundering for the first half of the season, the Cavs righted the ship by acquiring Tim Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert.  In two fell swoops, the team changed their weaknesses into strengths (center position and the wing depth).  They now field above-average starters at every position, and have the kind of veteran depth necessary to win in the playoffs.

The Celtics are a nice story; they have young talent across the board, but they are simply in over their heads.  I expect the games to be competitive, but the Cavs will simply overwhelm Boston down the stretch.

Pick:  Cavaliers in 4.