Last night San Antonio had to contend with the lingering stench from the game 2 loss, the four missed free throws in a row in the fourth quarter, and doubts from last year's Finals. A victory in game 3 would not have meant certain victory for the aging team from Texas, but a loss, in all likelihood, would have meant the series was over. Even for a team as mentally strong as San Antonio, getting past the events of last season, and then having to deal with a seeming recurrence of the same tragic (tragic in the context of sports, not life) fate, would prove almost insurmountable to overcome.
What Changed Between Games Two and Three?
Kawhi Leonard, playing at a high level all season long, got in quick foul trouble in game 2 and spent the night looking meek on offense and enjoying long swaths of time on the bench. Similarly in game 1 he was unproductive on the offensive end, scoring only 9 points (the same as his game 2 total). By contrast in game 3, he was in attack mode on offense from the get-go, avoided foul trouble, and played lights-out defense on LeBron James, forcing 7 turnovers. Leonard set the tone early as the Spurs build a massive lead, and his stellar play continued all game long, finishing with 29 points. More than mere stats, his dominant first quarter gave the Spurs the emotional boost they needed to galvanize their confidence after the deflating game 2 defeat. Leonard's ability to stay on the floor will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.
The second key was Danny Green finally learning how to dribble a basketball. Green, a wonderful, streaky, pure shooter, had never shown much in the way of handle or willingness to go rack. That changed in game 3. Green finished 7-8 from the field, with only two of those attempts coming from three. Instead, the shooting guard from UNC pump faked off the catch and drove to the rim, finishing an and-one layup on a play in which he blew by LeBron (although he missed the free throw). The added pressure that Green's drives put on the Heat defense led to open shots for San Antonio. Additionally, Green played stellar defense, getting five steals over the course of the game. If Green can keep up his offensive aggression, the Spurs will be quite difficult to stop.
Lastly, Popovich made the decision to split up Duncan and Splitter. This was a wise move; spacing-wise, San Antonio is much easier to guard with only 1 immobile non-shooter in the game. Getting Boris Diaw on the court is like having a second point guard (or third in case Ginobili and Parker are both in the game), and the chubby Frenchman also showed an aggressive streak on offense which has rarely been seen. Diaw went right at Bosh and James Jones and anyone else who was guarding him, using his girth and surprsingly quick feet. He also made some stellar passes and was a force on the glass, as per usual. Of course he also provides the additional ability to guard perimeter players, which Splitter and Duncan do not do particularly well.
How Will Miami Respond?
Just as in the game 1 loss, Miami did not play poorly on offense; the Heat shot over 50% and hit 10 three-pointers, at a 47% clip. They turned the ball over far too much however, and have gotten terrible point guard play. Where do they go from here? It seems clear that the Heat's 7 best players are LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Birdman, and Norris Cole. Given LeBron's ability to play any position and Bosh's ability to play a stretch 5, the team's best offensive lineup in crunch time is Bosh at the center position, Lewis at power forward, LeBron at small forward, with Wade and Allen in the backcourt. Norris Cole provides stellar defense and should get more of Chalmers' minutes. Birdman has proven adept at guarding Duncan one on one, something I did not expect. Inexplicably, Bosh only had 4 shots in game 3, making all of them. Miami needs to get him the ball more, as his combination of size, shooting, surprising quickness, and handle, make him a matchup nightmare for Duncan or Splitter.
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