Playoff Musings

Quick playoff thoughts:

1.  The Memphis Grizzlies are legit.  They beat the Spurs in the playoffs several years ago because Zach Randolph caught fire, and because the Spurs were unable to keep Zach and Gasol off the glass.  There are key differences from 2011 for both teams heading into their Western Conference Finals meeting (sorry Warriors' fans, it ain't gonna happen).

On the San Antonio side, Ginobili and Duncan are 2 years older and more beat up (the former can barely run because of his hamstring), and Parker is nursing a bad ankle.  On the plus side, they added a legit starting two-way SF in Kawhi Leonard, who is a huge upgrade over the always disappointing Richard Jefferson.  Danny Green's growth has made him a solid NBA player in his own right, and he has basically taken George Hill's role.  Hill was a better ball-handler and creator, but Green is a better 3 point shooter and a few inches taller.

The Spurs underutilized Tiago Splitter during the series (because Popovich is an inflexible overrated coach), and when the large, untalented Brazilian did get to play, he proved far better than McDyess, Bonner, or Blair at keeping Gasol and Z-Bo off the glass and at bay.  The Spurs still have Bonner and Blair on the roster, but it seems the team's second choice for PF is now Boris Diaw, a perennial underachiever and a bit of a softie defensively, but someone who can create all kinds of problems on the other side of the floor.  Diaw has some handle, he can pass, he can post (although he will probably not do so against Z-Bo or Gasol), and most importantly in the upcoming series, he can shoot.  Getting either Zach or Gasol away from the rim will open up driving lanes for Manu and Tony, both of whom will have their hands full trying to score against excellent individual defenders and the Grizzlies' superb team defense.

On the Grizzlies' side, the team that beat SA in the playoffs did not have Rudy Gay (who was injured). That team did however have Battier, OJ Mayo, and Grievis Vasquez.  Clearly, the Grizz bench is much weaker now than it was given those losses (to say nothing of the salary dump that sent Speights and Ellington to the Cavs), but their starting 5 is better now than ever.  Tayshaun Prince has proven to be a far better fit than Rudy Gay offensively, and a clearly superior defender.  Conley has blossomed into an All-Star caliber player, and Tony Allen has shown the ability to slash to the rim, as well as to offensive rebound.  Most importantly, the touches Rudy was stealing are now going to Z-Bo and Gasol, a far better use of the basketball.

2.  Pacers-Heat will be a barnburner.  Indiana isn't exactly shooting the lights out, but their defense is suffocating; I think given Wade's knee injury and general decline due to aging/all the hits he has taken (he is like a more athletic, thicker Ginobili without the shooting or passing skills), LeBron is really going to have to carry the load.  Luckily for Miami, they can bring guys like Battier, Miller, and Ray Allen off the bench to pick up the slack for Wade (and those guys can all stretch the floor, unlike Wade), but on nights when the 3 ball isn't falling for them, LeBron will have to do it all.  That will not be an easy task; Paul George is as good of a physical matchup for LBJ as there is in the league; Hibbert is 7'2 and knows how to use his height/reach, and the whole Pacers team rebounds with ferocity.

When Miami goes small-ball, they will be in trouble, as LeBron or the insufferable Shane Battier will have to guard West down low and Bosh or Birdman will have to guard Hibbert.  I smell a long series coming.