Pacers v Heat

Pacers v Heat

People writing off the Pacers are not being unreasonable; LeBron can shut down everyone on the Indiana roster 1 on 1 except Roy Hibbert (although LeBron may be heavier and stronger than Hibbert, which is insane).  There is no real weak link on the Miami roster; the closest thing to a weakness exists at the center position, and only against a real center who can score consistently in the post, someone in the Shaq/Duncan/Hakeem/Robinson/Ewing mold.  Hibbert is a skilled behemoth, although he is not quite good enough to push the Pacers past Miami.  The addition of the Birdman, Chris Anderson, has turned what was a weakness into a mere irritant that can only be exploited occasionally.  Birdman is a major reason that Miami is 44-4 in their last 48 games; his 15-20 minutes a game of defensive energy, offensive rebounding, finishes around the rim, and blocked shots have been a welcome addition to a team that was already probably the best in the NBA, but demonstrated poor rebounding against real big men (see Nikola Vucevic's 2 separate 20-20 games against the Heat).

How can the Pacers win?

Paul George, who out-dueled Carmelo Anthony last round, is going to have to find yet another gear in his matchup against Lebron.  He has the length, skills, foot speed, defensive acumen, and chutzpah to go mano-a-mano against Lebron, but he does not have the bulk to shut him down defensively.  Often, Miami's best play is simply to give it to Lebron and let him bull his way towards the basket, which inevitably leads to refs either bailing him out or James converting a layup or finding an open shooter.  Miami has 3 point shooting in spades; between James, Ray Allen, Chalmers, Battier, Norris Cole, Mike Miller, and even Chris Bosh, the Heat stretch the floor like no other team except the Spurs.  The caveat there is that Miami's bench shooters, despite their big names, are rather inconsistent, and Miami can fall in love with the 3 too much.  If Miami misses their 3s and the Pacers don't have to double on Lebron, Indiana can win several games in this series, at least.

Because of James' propensity to simply run at the basket and expect a foul call (his trademark yell of anger/entitlement at not receiving a foul call can be heard any time he misses a shot--he is one of the most underrated floppers in NBA history), the referees will have an enormous impact on this series; given the way Roy Hibbert ferociously defends the rim (he goes straight up and puts the onus on the officials--against the Knicks, the refs did not call a foul on Hibbert generally, except when Carmelo ran at him, which is not surprising given the league's propensity to call fouls differently when superstars are involved)

For the refs, when Lebron goes down like in these GIFs, they will be unlikely to keep their whistles silent; after all, he is the best player alive, he is the most famous current player, and he is 280 fucking pounds, meaning that if he goes down, he must have really been fouled, right?  

A key for Indiana will obviously be rebounding.  In the 3 matchups between the teams this season (of which Indiana won 2), the Pacers outrebounded the heat by 19, 9, and 5 boards respectively (winning the first two).  For Indiana to have a shot, they have have to hyper-aggressively rebound (Lance Stephenson, I am looking at you and your meth), especially on the offensive end.  Further, the Pacers have to punish the Heat for trying to play Shane Battier at the 4; David West has to massacre him to force the Heat to play Haslem or Birdman with Bosh, which hurts Miami's spacing.  

The aforementioned Lance Stephenson is going to have to play like he did against the Knicks--slightly out of control, a threat to go coast to coast at any time, a vicious rebounder and defender who can drive and finish at the rim.  Basically, he will have to do this:  

Lance is going to have to outplay Wade; a tall order, but given Dwayne's balky knee and terrible shooting, not entirely out of the range of possibilities.  

His backcourt mate, George Hill, will similarly have to win his positional battle, which he should do against the inconsistent Mario Chalmers (although Chalmers has shown that he has a knack for big games).  Hill has a decent handle and is a good jump shooter, although he doesn't have the floor vision that one would want out of a point guard.  His backup, DJ Augustin, will have to be a spark plug off the bench, because otherwise, when Indy's starters rest, there isn't going to be much offense.

Judging from the Chicago series, a great defensive team can hang in with the Heat.  Obviously, the Pacers are a much better offensive team than Chicago, and they are a superior defensive team as well.  Their big problem is that Lebron is just phenomenal.  I am picking Heat in 6.