Friday, November 15, 2013

Why Hendricks is fool's gold

FOOL'S GOLD

Trusting one's chin too much, as Hendricks is wont to do, will not serve him well against GSP.

MMA websites have been abuzz lately with talk of Johny Hendricks dethroning Georges St. Pierre.  On paper, Hendricks looks like the perfect mix of attributes to beat the Canadian all-time great.  Hendricks has much better wrestling credentials (4x all-American, 2x national champion), is clearly a bigger puncher, is reputed to have a sturdier chin, moves quite well for someone who allegedly cuts 45 pounds per fight, and is a naturally bigger, stronger man than the champion.  Of course, as usual, fights aren't actually held on paper, but rather in a cage, where all of Hendricks' alleged advantages will come tumbling down as GSP uses his massive speed and technique edge to beat the number 1 contender like he has beaten everyone else he has ever faced.


Hendricks holds his hands at his chest and walks forward mostly flat-footed
Johny Hendricks is, aside from Robbie Lawler, my pick for biggest puncher in the division.  Unfortunately for Johny, landing massive bombs is hard against an opponent longer, taller, much faster, and better technically, who knows how to use his jab, footwork, and low kicks to control distance (to say nothing of someone who will put Hendricks on his ass after every swing).  Further, because Johny is a 1-handed puncher who telegraphs his bombs, even if they land, it is not as if there is an automatic pot of gold coming at the end of every shot; it is the punch you don't see coming that does the damage, not the big shot you brace for.  

For example against Josh Koscheck (a fight that Hendricks won in a split decision that clearly should have gone Koscheck's favor), Hendricks landed numerous thudding blows, but never had Josh in any kind of trouble.    Koscheck, who has been stopped with strikes several times, was able to weather Hendricks' repeated storms, land his own flurries, out-wrestle Hendricks, and neutralize Johny's propensity for knocking people out using his head movement, straighter punches, and hand speed advantage.  
Note in this GIF that not once does Hendricks have his hands up

 Koscheck is the closest thing to GSP in the division in terms of a combination of athleticism and wrestling; he fought GSP twice for a total of 8 rounds; he won 1 of those rounds.  Against Hendricks, Koscheck won 2 of 3 rounds.  The big difference between Koscheck and GSP is the latter's ability to close distance with blazing speed, the variety of GSP's offensive attack, ability to seamlessly switch between strikes and takedowns, and his far sharper mind; Koscheck fights like a loose cannon, whereas Georges fights like a calculated chess master.  

Hendricks, for all the fanfare surrounding him, has accumulated the following results in his last 9 fights: 2 split decision wins (I personally thought he lost both--Mike Pierce outwrestled him, kept Hendricks moving backwards on the feet, and was not hurt by Henricks' vaunted power), a majority decision win, a loss to Rick Story, 4 KO wins, and a razor-close unanimous decision against Carlos Condit, in one of the best fights of the year.  Instead of 8-1 over that stretch, he could easily have a mark of 4-5.  The lesson is clear: if Hendricks doesn't overwhelm his opponent with strikes early, his odds of finishing decrease drastically with each passing minute (5 of his 15 wins have come in the first round, 2 in the second, and only 1 in the third, with the other 7 by decision).  The fight against GSP will be Hendricks' first 5 round affair.  If Hendricks' power fades in a 3 round fight, imagine what will happen when the terrible toll on his body really starts to kick in during the championship rounds.  By contrast, GSP has gone 25 minutes 7 times, and his cardio has always held up.

Although I do not actively use Twitter, while researching this article, I saw a tweet by Hendricks shouting out an undefeated (actually 8-1, apparently unbeknownst to Hendricks) boxer with whom Johny trained.  By contrast, GSP spars with Lucian Bute, former 168 pound world champion.  For his muay Thai skills, GSP brought in John Wayne Parr, one of the best non-Thai muay Thai fighters of all time to replicate Hendricks' forward pressure.  GSP always pushes and humbles himself against guys who are better than he is at individual disciplines; that and his other-worldly athleticism, are what separate him from everyone else.  The mental fortitude required to get your ass kicked over and over again by champions in other sports, as an mma world champion, and put your ego aside for the sake of improvement, is not something that many guys in GSP's position are willing to do.    

On the subject of GSP's athleticism, what can you say?  He is perhaps the most gifted athlete in mma history, possessing great speed, strength, stamina, timing, explosion, balance, and flexibility.  ESPN Sports Science did a segment on GSP showing that, among other things, his takedowns had more force than those of Rashad Evans, a former world champion at 205 pounds.   GSP's athleticism manifests itself most often in his jab, his double leg, his low kick, and his Superman punch, which, according to the Sports Science segment, allows him to cover 15 feet of distance in under a second.  While many think GSP has a bad chin because he got dropped by Matt Serra on a punch that landed on his temple/the back of his head (and not his chin) in 2007, GSP has since fought a string of dangerous strikers (Condit, Thiago Silva, Koscheck, Diaz, BJ Penn, Dan Hardy), beating them all on the feet, save for a sick high kick by Condit (set up masterfully by a great fake) that almost KO'd the champion.  Between his foot speed, his jab (GSP isn't known as a big puncher, but he broke Koscheck's orbital bone almost immediately in their rematch, and then proceeded to beat the shit out of him for 25 minutes) and his uncanny takedown ability, GSP controls where the fight takes place.  

Prediction:  St. Pierre will be ready for Hendricks' big left hand, and will jab, move, and shoot takedowns to keep Hendricks off balance.  Johny's mediocre defense will leave him susceptible to GSP's jabs, and we will see a more gun-shy Hendricks; a few jabs and a few takedowns will leave Hendricks confused and mentally defeated, as all St. Pierre opponents wind up.  GSP by unanimous decision.   



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