History as a Guide: Does Defense Really Win Championships?

Talk to the hand. 

Year	Champion	points        allowed	point       differential	points      allowed    rank
2000-2001	Lakers	97.2	3.4	23
2001-2002	Lakers	94.1	7.1	9
2002-2003	Spurs	90.4	5.4	3
2003-2004	Pistons	84.3	5.8	1
2004-2005	Spurs	88.4	7.8	1
2005-2006	Heat	96	3.9	13
2006-2007	Spurs	90.1	8.4	1
2007-2008	Celtics	90.3	10.2	2
2008-2009	Lakers	99.3	7.7	13
2009-2010	Lakers	97	4.8	9
2010-2011	Mavs	96	4.2	10
2011-2012	Heat	92.5	6	4
2012-2013	Heat	95	7.9	5
2013-2014	Spurs	97.6	7.7	6

To attempt to ascertain who will win the NBA title this year, I researched the defensive stats of every NBA champion this millennium.  From this research a few lessons stand out.  Firstly, defense usually wins championships.  Secondly, if teams are blessed with historically great players in their primes, they can overcome lackluster regular season defense (I’m looking specifically at the 2000-2001 Lakers team, which featured Shaq at his absolute apex and Kobe entering his prime, as well as the 2008-2009 Lakers, which featured Pau Gasol in his prime and Kobe at the tail end of his prime, as well as the 2005-2006 Heat, with Dwayne Wade at his world-destroying best and Shaq still the most dominant big man in the league). 

Even of those three teams mentioned, two were in the upper half of the league in terms of least points per game allowed.  The 2000-2001 Lakers were a true anomaly.  Despite their below-average regular season defense, they went 15-1 in the playoffs; having two of the three best players in a generation (Duncan being the other member of the triumvirate) renders statistical analysis null.  However this season, none of the playoff contenders have two of the three best players of the current generation (the Thunder arguably would, but Durant is out).

Thus, we can ignore the Lakers mind-boggling success and concentrate on the statistical precedents that teams composed of mere mortals demonstrate. 

Point Differential:

In this millennium, no team has won a NBA title with a regular season point differential of less than 3.4.  The point differential average of the 14 aforementioned champions is 6.45.  Here are the stats of the current season’s contenders.  I have crossed out every team with a point differential less than 3.4, except Houston and its 3.3 margin of victory (explanation after the stats):

Team	points allowed	point differential	points    allowed   rank
GSW	99.3	10.4	14
HOU	100.4	3.3	17
MEM	95.4	3	2
POR	97.9	4.9	10
LAC	100.3	6.5	16
SAS	96.9	6	3
DAL	101.7	2.9	23
ATL	97.3	5.4	7
CLE	98.3	5.1	12
CHI	98.2	2.6	11
TOR	101.5	2.9	22

Thus we can eliminate Memphis, Dallas, Chicago, and Toronto, leaving us with Golden State, Portland, LAC, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland as legitimate title contenders.  I have chosen not to eliminate Houston because as hot as the Rockets have been lately, they may surpass that margin of victory by the end of the season, especially with the recent return of Dwight Howard.

Points Allowed:

None of the champions this millennium have allowed more than 99.3 points per game.  The average among those 14 championship teams is 93.4 points allowed per game.  The Warriors, clearly this year’s best team (as long as they aren’t playing the Spurs, who have handled them twice), are averaging 99.3 points per game allowed, which ties the 2008-2009 Lakers team, which has the distinction of allowing the most points of any champion in the 2000s. 

Does this mean that Golden State plays porous defense that will be exposed in the playoffs?  Surprisingly no.  Thanks to advanced stats, we can see that the Warriors actually allow the fewest points allowed per possession in the Association.  Color me surprised. 

Consulting the history of advanced stats, a clear pattern emerges: points per possession regular season defense is highly correlated with playoff success.  No team since 2002-2003 (as far back as ESPN’s database goes) has won a championship without being a top-10 defensive team in terms of points per possession, with the exception of the 2005-2006 Miami Heat.  That is 11 out of 12, or 92%.  Thus, I find this measure to be highly reliable.  In that vein, let’s look at the points per possession ranks of our contenders this season:

Team	points per possession (allowed) rank
GSW	1
HOU	7
MEM	5
POR	8
LAC	16
SAS	2
DAL	18
ATL	8
CLE	19
CHI	12
TOR	25

This data is quite helpful.  We had already eliminated Toronto, Memphis, Chicago, and Dallas because of their inadequate (in a historical sense) margin of victory figures.  We can add to that list the Clippers, the Bulls, and the Cavaliers (which is surprising, given how well the team has played the second half of the season). 

Thus we are left with Golden State, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Portland.

Let’s evaluate those five teams, plus the Los Angeles Clippers, who have the second-best margin of victory in the NBA, the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA, and yet still find themselves eliminated using the statistical measures I have chosen:

Snakebitten: Portland Trailblazers

Goodbye title hopes :(

This team had it all; a dynamic point guard, a go-to post player, a dynamic bench with scoring, size, a heady backup point guard, and a newly acquired star in Aaron Affalo.  All of that came to a halt when Wes Matthews, the team’s heart and soul, went down for the year with a torn Achilles.  As good as Aldridge and Lillard are, they are not good enough to take this team to the promised land without the team’s third-best player.  Try again next year.

Not quite good enough: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers aren't lacking in athleticism. 

It is odd to say that a team with the best point guard of his generation, and the most athletically-dominant power forward since Shawn Kemp, is not good enough to win a title, but it is the truth.  Despite DeAndre Jordan and his 15 rebounds per game, despite Blake’s savage dunks and improved midrange game and underrated passing skills, this team will not win the NBA championship.  They are too reliant on JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes, the former two streaky shooters who don’t bring much to the defensive end, and the latter a hothead who seems to always manage to get a technical foul at the wrong time.  Spencer Hawes was brought to this team to give the Clippers a competent third big, but has been a massive flop.  As devastating as the Blake/CP3 pick and roll can be, this team has too many defensive lapses, has inconsistent wing play, and can’t trust DeAndre Jordan in the clutch because of his foul shooting.  All of that is not to say that the Clippers won’t do some serious damage in the playoffs; Blake Griffin has come back at the right time, and this team will give every team a dogfight.

The best in the Eastern Conference: Atlanta Hawks

Net.

Only the Bulls and Cavaliers can conceivably win more than a game or two in a seven-game series against this team in the Eastern Conference.  They play defense on a string, share the ball, play without ego, and have an elite combination of shooting, rebounding, spacing, and penetration.  Kyle Korver creates constant havoc on offense, and the chaos that surrounds his endless high speed caroms off of screens leaves defenses vulnerable to layups for the screener, or causes the defense to frantically chase, always a step behind Atlanta’s crisp ball movement.  The combination of Millsap and Horford is the best 4-5 combination in the NBA.  The only reticence I have about picking this team to win the championship is that there is not a single player on the team (with the possible exception of Al Horford) who has a shot at ever making the Hall of Fame.  Even the Pistons, considered as the last team to win a title without a true superstar, had a multi-time defensive player of the year, a Hall of Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace (whose potential went up in a cloud of smoke—literally), and a likely Hall of Famer in Chauncey Billups.  Nobody on the Hawks has the playoff experience to be trusted to get a basket in the last minute of a close Finals game.

The Beard and the Moron:  Houston Rockets

Championship intensity.

Dwight Howard, when healthy, is the most dominant big in the league.  He is 6’11, has the build of a professional wrestler, yet can jump like a shooting guard.  However at this point in his career, and with a myriad of knee injuries bearing down on him, there is nothing to suggest Dwight will ever be truly healthy again.  Thus, the Houston Rockets’ success falls squarely on the shoulders of one James Harden, a man who is better at getting fouled than anyone I can remember.  The most obvious comparison for Harden is Manu Ginobili (although he reminds me more of Gilbert Arenas than Manu on many days).  Both are lefties who utilize the Euro-step, can shoot, pass, get to the rim, and draw fouls.  Harden has shown himself to be a better regular season player than Manu however, or at least has gotten more opportunities to demonstrate his ability to carry a team than Manu has as part of a three-headed monster (if Harden had stayed in Oklahoma, who knows what his stats would look like). 

This ability to get fouled and make foul shots is even more important in the playoffs than the regular season, as the defensive intensity gets tightened and easy baskets are few and far between.  The downside for Harden is that many of the calls he gets in the regular season will not be called in the playoffs.   Harden has a tendency to flail and initiate contact with defenders.  For whatever reason, in the playoffs, the referees are disinclined to reward such behavior.  Harden walks a thin line between genius and ugliness with his game; if he starts throwing himself into defenders with the clear intent of merely drawing fouls, and does not get said calls, the Rockets will face challenging circumstances. 

This team managed to snag Josh Smith and Corey Brewer mid-season, both accomplished veterans who can play defense at a high-level.  This team has good depth in the frontcourt, but that all falls apart if Dwight Howard reinjures his knee.  Further complicating matters for the team is the loss of Patrick Beverley, the Rockets’ pugnacious point guard who spearheads the team’s defense.  Having an aging Jason Terry try to slow down the West’s killer crop of point guards is asking for disaster.  There are simply too many uncertainties here to pick this team to win it all.

The Kings of the Regular Season:  Golden State Warriors

Appearing in a city near you, "Chris Paul on Skates", hosted by Steph Curry. 

The Warriors’ gaudy 10.4 margin of victory average is the highest of any team this millennium.  They will have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and have the advantage of one of the loudest and most knowledgeable fan bases in the entire NBA.  The team fields a point guard in Stephen Curry whose shooting range is anywhere to half court, a two guard in Klay Thompson who has blossomed into a two-way star, a defensive menace in Draymond Green who also shoots 3s and gathers assists, and an ornery 300 pound Australian center in Andrew Bogut who is not afraid to get physical. 

Golden State also has one of the most embarrassing collections of riches on its bench of any team in the playoffs.  Andre Iguodala and David Lee, both former All-Stars, make limited contributions, as does Shaun Livingston.  The Warriors decimated the entire NBA this season; not only did they beat the bad teams, but also went 31-9 against teams with winning records (by far the best mark in the Association).  Despite all this, I don’t think they will win the NBA title.  This season has been too easy, and the team is still somewhat green in terms of playoff experience.  Of the Warriors’ 14 losses this season, 9 have been by double-digits.  Compare that to the Spurs, who have 26 losses, but only 7 by double-digits (and only 4 with the Big 3, including an overtime defeat).  When I see that statistic, it tells me that the Warriors don’t necessarily have a backup plan when the jumpers don’t fall.  In a seven-game series, each team gets to know the other team’s tendencies, and the referees swallow their whistles more often than in the regular season.  This encourages more physical defense, which does not work in Golden State’s favor against the Spurs, especially if San Antonio puts Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive player alive, on Steph Curry.  Also of concern to Warriors fans should be Andrew Bogut’s health.  He is overdue an injury, and without him patrolling the back line, the Warriors’ defense and rebounding lose their most important cog.  Draymond Green, for all his accolades, is 6’7 230, and cannot guard Tim Duncan.  If the Warriors have to use David Lee and Mo Speights at center against Duncan and Splitter, Golden State fans will not be pleased with the result. 

The Aging Champions:  San Antonio Spurs

I smell repeat.

There is a reason the Spurs beat the Warriors twice this season, which is the same reason they beat them in the playoffs : they are the better team.  As much depth as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As much shooting as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As good as the Warriors are at pick and roll, the Spurs are better.  The Spurs will see your Draymond Green and raise you Kawhi Leonard, who at this point is the team’s best player, as well as the best defensive player in the NBA.  No team adjusts more quickly to opposing systems than the Spurs.  Whether that means Danny Green, Ginobili, Patty Mills, or Leonard on Curry, whether that means playing Boris Diaw at the 5 to take opposing centers away from the rim, or playing two diminutive point guards at once, there is nothing the Spurs won’t do.   This is a team built for the playoffs, and a team that is rounding into form; they have won 7 in a row and 17 of 20. 

Manu Ginobili seems to be slowly returning to Ginobili-ness after a sprained ankle, and Kawhi Leonard seems to be both recovered from a hand injury which caused him to miss 18 games, and embracing his role as the new big man on campus.  Tony Parker is still a defensive sieve, but nobody can guard him.  Patty Mills is perhaps the fastest player in the league, and plays the kind of in-your-skin defense that throws even the best ball handlers for a loop, to say nothing of his three-point shooting.  Thiago Splitter turned into a legitimate big-time player in the Finals last season, and hasn’t looked back.  All the layups that he used to miss, he now seems to convert.  Danny Green remains one of the league’s best combinations of three-point shooting and lockdown defense.  Boris Diaw, when not eating, is an absolute enigma for opposing teams; he can guard three positions, he passes like a point guard, and can score in the post and outside.  The team rotates seamlessly, plays unselfishly, and oh yeah, has the greatest power forward of all-time to throw the ball to if the pick and roll doesn’t create any shots.  

Get ready for the playoffs! 

ALL IS NOT LOST

ALL IS NOT LOST

Mixed martial arts (MMA) fans are a weird, neurotic, fatalistic bunch.  I say this as someone who spent his high school years frequenting Blockbuster Video in search of VHS copies of UFC events (clearly I was not too popular with the ladies).  This was years before the organization got big, or rather after it got big and was subsequently banished away from relevance by John McCain and other boxing cronies who deemed it barbaric and dangerous (while boxing, of course, is safe and refined).  

Guys like Pat Miletich, Frank Shamrock, Kevin Randleman, and Bas Rutten were my favorites in those dark days of MMA.  The UFC was forced out of many places where they tried to run shows, had the rules changed by state athletic commissions to dilute the product (even banning closed fists, which led to the worst fight of all time, an incredibly dull thirty-minute affair between Ken Shamrock and Dan Severn, a fight which almost single-handedly ruined the UFC), and faced outrage from the media and Congress.  Eventually, Bob Meyrowitz, the original owner, was forced to sell the UFC.  The buyers were the Fertitta brothers, Las Vegas casino heirs who were well connected, and who used those connections to get the sport widely regulated and back on pay per view.  The Fertittas’ money and courage (they were at one point down tens of millions of dollars in their UFC venture), along with Dana White’s charm and chutzpah as a charismatic front man, led the UFC back to relevance. 

The period in which the UFC’s existence is in doubt has passed, yet the fatalism remains.  One cause for such an attitude of resignation is the role of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) in MMA.  Everyone has an opinion on questions concerning PEDs, on topics ranging from whether or not certain drugs deserve to be worthy of a suspension, to what percentage of fighters are on the sauce to whether fighters who juice should be banned from competition.  There is a fear that if too many high caliber fighters are found to be steroid users, that the public will turn on the sport, viewing it and its athletes as illegitimate (to say nothing of the idea, oft-espoused by MMA fans, that the sport’s best days are behind it, that the audience is overexposed, and that there are no new stars to sustain the UFC in the post-GSP/Anderson Silva/Brock Lesnar/BJ Penn/Liddell/Couture/Rampage/Rashad world). 

The past month has been a great time for critics of MMA.  In that period, Jon Jones, the best fighter in the sport, fresh off a dominating victory over two-time Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier, tested positive for cocaine.  The reaction was mixed; cocaine is not a performance-enhancing drug, and actually has a negative effect on the body, as it lowers testosterone production.  In fact Jones’ testosterone levels were shockingly low; so low in fact that many suspected that he had used a masking agent to cover his own steroid use and make it seem that he had done nothing wrong.  The Nevada State Athletic Commission performed carbon isotope ratio testing to determine if a masking agent had in fact been used, and concluded that it had not, much to the relief of the UFC.  While cocaine is not a good thing to put into your system, Jones’ use of said substance did not impact his performance, and had the added bonus of creating a great deal of publicity for the UFC. 

Jones did an interview with Fox Sports on the subject in which he expressed his contrition; Dana White announced that Jones was going to rehab, his name was splashed all over ESPN, and Jon Jones became a full-on celebrity.  The pay per view numbers of his subsequent fights will benefit from how famous he has become; there is a curiosity factor about celebrities that is hard to ignore, and Jones’ celebrity clearly now reaches beyond MMA fans to the sports world at large, despite his personality (which can best be described as aloof, churlish, and hypocritical).

Now, with the shocking positive pre-fight drug test of Anderson Silva (and Nick Diaz’s positive post-fight marijuana test), the critics are at it again, convinced that this will in fact speed up MMA’s demise in America.  UFC pay per view buys are consistently down, and the few stars remaining in the company are cheaters (Anderson Silva, Vitor Belfort), drug users (like Jones and Diaz), unable to stay healthy (Chris Weidman, Cain Velasquez, Rashad Evans, and Dominick Cruz come to mind), or unable to draw pay per view buys (Demetrious Johnson, Jose Aldo, Renan Barao).   The UFC’s only true potential stars with room for growth are Conor McGregor (who the UFC must be praying will defeat Jose Aldo), Ronda Rousey (whose ability to headline a card that will draw pay per view buys is unknown), Robbie Lawler (room for growth because despite his veteran status, he has yet to defend his newly acquired title) and the spectacular, oft-injured Anthony Pettis (and we can’t forget the likely return of Brock Lesnar, which will lead to cries of joy in Las Vegas so loud that they will be audible all the way to Alaska). 

Despite legitimate criticism of the direction of MMA in America, of the UFC’s inability to make new stars, of the pervasive role of PEDs in the fight game, and of the credibility of various athletic commissions (more on that later), the UFC is not getting weaker.  Criticism of Anderson Silva, even criticism that makes the sport as a whole look bad (as Silva has often been considered someone above the fray of steroids, someone with too much natural talent and class to need to resort to cheating), is good for the UFC.  Having Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz’s failed drug tests on the front page of ESPN.com is good for business; it keeps the UFC in the public eye, and elevates the UFC to the same level as other major sports.  Diaz and Silva, if and when they give press conferences responding to the charges, will attract millions of eyeballs.  Even if Silva is viewed as a cheater, the public’s fascination with him will only grow, as it is likely he will use the excuse of his badly broken leg as the impetus for steroid use, in an effort to heal faster.  It is hard to not feel sorry for someone who suffered such a horrific injury, and has never before tested positive for steroids in a professional career lasting almost 20 years.  If Silva decides to fight again (an unknown at this point), it will be an event perhaps even bigger than Silva vs Diaz given the theme of redemption, and the affinity that fans feel for him. 

Nick Diaz will similarly benefit from Silva’s positive drug test, and his status as a counter-culture hero will grow with yet another positive marijuana test (his third—he has a medical marijuana card in California, but the Nevada State Athletic Commission does not care about that).  The fight will be changed to a no-contest, and Diaz can point to the fact that Anderson Silva, a man who dominated a former champion in Forrest Griffin at 205 pounds, needed steroids to win a decision against a guy in Diaz who has competed as low as 160 pounds.  Diaz’s ability to speak honestly, without any political correctness filter, has endeared him to fans.  Now that he is even more famous than he was when he agreed to fight Silva (between his amazing antics and trash talking during the fight, and now the publicity from the drug tests), his next fight, likely at 170, will be a huge draw.  If Diaz gets one win at 170, his subsequent fight will likely be for a title shot. 

The likely biggest loser from the positive drug test is not the UFC, but rather the NSAC.  The NSAC performed the blood test that Silva failed on January 9.  Somehow, despite the fight taking place January 31, a full three weeks later, the NSAC was unable to obtain results of the test until AFTER the fight.  This is a blood test which takes mere minutes to analyze, yet the NSAC couldn’t get results for almost a month.  Either you believe that the NSAC was incompetent and lazy, or you think that they wanted the fight to go on, fearing a show cancellation if the main event were lost, and wanting to get their share of the penalty they would receive (30% of the fighters’ purses, in this fight worth a cool $390,000 in fees to the NSAC). 

There are several ways this can play out, and a criminal investigation is possible, or at least would be if not in a cesspool like Nevada.  If the public outcry reaches a level at which the Attorney General feels inclined to investigate, phone records and emails will be examined, and it is likely that evidence of a cover-up would be discovered.  The odds suggest that the Nevada State Athletic Commissioner would resign in such a situation, and would avoid prison time.  If the evidence were to point to the UFC pressuring the NSAC to not release the results until after the fight, so as to make sure their event came to fruition, Dana White himself may be forced to resign.  Either way, the publicity would only make the UFC more mainstream, and would only increase pay per view buy rates.  The show will go on.