Two Ships Passing in the Night: the divergent career paths of Shogun and Chael Sonnen

A despondent Mauricio Rua sits on the mat after tapping out, apparently with enormous objects sewn under his back--seriously, he looks like the Hunchback of Notre Dame.  

For mma fans who have come into the sport in the last 7 years, you have not actually seen Shogun Rua.  Mauricio Rua may share the name of the guy who fought with the purest form of aggression and violence mma has ever seen, but after 3 knee surgeries robbed him of his considerable athleticism, Mauricio Rua is merely a shell of Shogun.  The Shogun of Pride was likely the 2nd best LHW in mma history behind only Jon Jones (and I'm not even sure if Jon Jones would have won that bout).  He didn't just win fights; he beat people almost to death in a hurricane-like whir of stomps, soccer kicks, clinch knees, flying knees, low kicks, body kicks, head kicks, and (sloppy but effective) punches.  Shogun didn't plod forward as he has been reduced to doing in his UFC tenure; instead, his strikes exploded onto his opponents like bits of flying shrapnel.

I hate the highlights the UFC shows of him, which constitute Mauricio's UFC "highlight" reel.  This highlight reel consists of knocking out an ancient and shot Chuck Liddell, knocking out 44 year old Mark Coleman in a fight in which both men looked at risk of suffering heart attacks from poor conditioning (after a 2 year layoff by Coleman, no less), knocking out Brandon Vera's corpse in 4 rounds, and knocking out the shot Forrest Griffin.  His one true highlight in the UFC was his KO of Machida.  The UFC is loath to show Shogun's Pride highlights because 1) Pride had a far superior product to anything the UFC has ever done (and many better fighters, although UFC fanboys will cry and scream upon hearing that), and because 2) seeing Pride highlights of Shogun, and his prodigious descent into mediocrity, would make it hard for the UFC to market Mauricio Rua as a world-class fighter in present day.  Reason number 1 is obviously much more important than reason 2; UFC has marketed plenty of non-world class fighters in main events.

UFC's principal intention when acting like Pride did not exist is to make mma fans think that UFC is the best mma organization in the sport's history, which is debatable.   There is a reason Joe Rogan never talks about how Shogun beat Overeem and Arona in the same night in front of 47,000 screaming fans in the Saitama Arena to win the best tournament in mma history.  There is a reason Rogan doesn't talk about Shogun beating Rampage to the point that Quinton was reduced to a position of immobility in the corner as he lay slumped on the mat with his head an easy target for Shogun's soccer kicks.

That reason is to minimize Pride's significance.

There was an inescapable feeling when watching Shogun in Pride that he was going to badly hurt his opponents; he was too fast, had too much cardio, was too aggressive, and was too good, both on the feet and on the ground.  His brutalizations of Rampage (who was much better in Pride than when he subsequently became UFC champion), Arona (who had just beaten Wanderlei Silva, the consensus #1 205 fighter in the world, and whom I would say would be the 3rd best fighter in the UFC 205 division if he were fighting in it now), Overeem (in a comeback that exemplified Shogun's heart and Overeem's uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory), and Akihiro Gono (among others) were unlike anything I had ever seen.  Perhaps Shogun's toughest fight in Pride was against lil Nog, with whom Shogun engaged in an incredibly tough, back and forth battle.  Nog's hands (he was a Brazilian amateur boxing champion) gave him a clear edge, but Shogun just gutted out a win in one of the highest-level mma matches in the sport's history.

His UFC tenure has been marked by a mix of good (Machida win), bad (losses to Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson, Gustaffson) and ugly (the Coleman debacle and the absolute massacre he suffered at the hands of Jon Jones come to mind).  Saturday night marked a new chapter; even in his defeats in the UFC, he always showed heart and talent.  Saturday night, in the span of less than a round, he got taken down twice, swept, and choked.  As he sat on the mat after the referee pulled Chael off of him, I couldn't help but wonder if Mauricio knew it was all over.

His opponent, meanwhile, seems to be peaking late in his career.  The first time I saw a Chael Sonnen fight was his initial encounter against Paolo Filho, then 15-0 and the WEC champion.  Filho was considered one of the absolute best fighters in mma, but Chael beat him senseless.  Chael, an Olympic alternate wrestler, was able to keep the fight on the feet with ease, where he absolutely dominated.  When Chael stupidly did take the fight down, he found himself in a world of trouble, barely able to elude Filho's submissions.  In the second round, in the midst of beating Filho from pillar to post again, Chael went for another takedown, and found himself getting tapped out with 5 seconds left in the round.  How could someone with so much physical talent, be such a goddamn idiot?  That was the question I was left with after watching.

Chael threw around Bryan Baker in his next match, and then avenged his defeat to Filho in his final WEC fight.  Once in the UFC, Chael continued to flummox with his combination of great athleticism and skill, mixed with intermittent bouts of idiocy.  The first such moment of the latter category came against Demian Maia, when Chael, a far superior wrestler, allowed himself to get thrown, mounted, and submitted, by a guy who soon after moved down to the 170 pound division.  Chael rebounded with 3 consecutive wins, followed by his best and worst moment, the first Anderson Silva bout.

Nobody has ever been more elevated from a loss than Chael was against Anderson.  Even his drug suspension didn't seem to hurt his momentum.  With every passing interview, Chael honed his mic skills, eventually reaching the point where he became a commentator for Fox on their UFC broadcasts.  In his first fight after the Silva match, Chael beat the hell out of Brian Stann, overwhelming him and choking him out in the 2nd round.  Much more memorable than the fight itself, was Chael's epic promo.  As he did when Rogan interviewed him after choking Shogun, Chael entirely ignored Rogan's question, and delivered a WWE-style bit of microphone magic.  Nobody else in mma does what Chael does; for former pro wrestling fans, his promos seem familiar, but still fresh given the lack of predictability in mma.  Calling out the champion and saying he would leave the UFC if he lost to Anderson took a massive dose of chutzpah.

Chael has figured out that by talking, and talking well, the result of the fights themselves are not the only things that matter.  Obviously, talking lots of trash and getting pummeled every time you fight is not a good strategy, but in Chael's case, his losses to Anderson and Jon Jones didn't really hurt him.  He beat Silva senseless in the first encounter, clearly won the first round in the rematch, and very well may have been able to win had he not gone for his spinning elbow of doom.  Against Jon Jones, the best fighter in the history of the 205 pound division, and a man a clear weight class above him, Chael fought valiantly.  Although he was stopped inside of a round, Sonnen didn't embarrass himself.  His continued talking has kept him in the limelight; his ability to be witty, cocky, and vulnerable is a great mix.  It is noteworthy that before the Shogun fight, Chael didn't say anything bad about Shogun, just that he was going to beat Shogun and then decimate Wanderlei, whom Chael previously called "the worst fighter in UFC history".  As a viewer, it is hard not to be intrigued by a fighter who says things no one else will say.  Forget for a moment, if you will, the Brazil-bashing (although some of Chael's comments on Brazil are the funniest things I have ever heard a fighter say--a certain pair of brothers petting a bus and feeding it a horse come to mind--), and just appreciate that a former glorified journeyman, a man who has lost to Jeremy Horn THREE TIMES, has become one of the biggest draws in the entire sport.  Not bad.

American Soft Power

I remember learning about the concept of "soft power" while in college.  It refers to the ways in which a country can manipulate or alter the actions of other countries through non-violent means.  In America's case, this soft power comes not only from our economic might, but also our culture's unique and unparalleled ability to pervade and invade other countries and their cultures.

 The successful projection of soft power leads to America's strategic interests being obtained.  These interests include sweetheart trade deals, allowing America to use other countries for military bases, allowing America to use these other countries as rendition spots, and apparently, allowing American fighters to win ABSOLUTELY APPALLING decisions.

Lyoto Machida put on a clinic last night; he won every minute of the entire fight save 45 seconds in the first round and 20 seconds in the second round, the two times (out of 10 attempts, per FightMetric) when Phil Davis was able to get Lyoto down and land some ground and pound.  For the other 14 minutes of the fight, Machida controlled the action, landing powerful, crisp strikes, thwarting takedowns, making Davis look amateurish on the feet, and owning the Octagon.  When the decision was announced, I was left mouth agape, in absolute shock.  Perhaps that shock was misplaced; after all, I have seen the decisions in Rampage vs Machida as well as every single Leonard Garcia fight and Edgar vs Ben Henderson 2 (and Edgar vs BJ Penn 1, a result so terrible that I literally almost came to fisticuffs with one of my closest friends, who insisted that the decision was sound--he must have been trolling).  

At this point, I don't even know why mma doesn't just get rid of striking on the feet entirely, if the only thing the judges score is takedowns and weak ground and pound.  On my life, I have no idea why a takedown that does not cause bodily harm in and of itself, is scored more than a stuffed takedown.  Both are examples of controlling where the fight takes place.  If one man controls where the fight takes place for the vast majority of the round and clearly does more damage during that part of the round, why does the other man get awarded the round for pulling him on the ground?  I don't understand why landing head kicks and standing punches are not as valuable as arm punches thrown from 6 inches away while on the ground.  Fights like the one last night make me wonder if my time watching mma has ended, or yearn for the days of Pride, in which the fight was scored as a whole, rather than in round by round stanzas in which retarded judges can always find a way to award takedowns over all else.

I often complain about UFC President Dana White's penchant for lying, but as it pertains to his analysis of the fight last night, he was dead on:

"Machida definitely won that fight, definitely," White told Yahoo! Sports. "But that's his fault. He knows MMA judging sucks. It's terrible, it's [expletive], but he went out there and let him do it. I can't remember whether it was the first or the second, but Machida had that combination where he threw all those punches and ran across the cage and ended with that knee. That's when he's really good. But he wants to stay back and be a counter puncher and wait and fight cautiously."

Of course, Dana wants every fighter to go for broke at all times and risk getting KTFO (and cut from his contract) to provide a more exciting fight for the fans.  So when Dana talks about Machida being cautious, and that somehow equating to his fault, take it with a grain of salt.  Dana the promoter wants all action, all the time, but Dana the knowledgeable fight fan knows that it was a horrid decision.  

I almost feel bad for Phil Davis in all this; what is on paper the most glorious moment of his career, is considered a joke by most people who saw it.  Phil is a wonderfully talented fighter; his striking was much improved last night, his wrestling is top-notch, and his submission game is dangerous.  I think he would have beaten any light heavyweight in the world last night not named Jon Jones or Lyoto Machida (and maybe Glover Teixeira), but that doesn't change the fact that he was the beneficiary of American soft power, to the detriment of the natives in Brazil (namely Machida and the thousands of people at the stadium who booed so much I thought there was going to be a riot).  This result puts Dana White in a bit of a pickle; after Jones massacres Gustaffson, will get Machida get the rematch he deserves, will Phil Davis, woefully unprepared, fight Jon Jones, or will it be Teixeira?

An Ode in Poem Form to LeBron, Game 7, and the NBA.

Three big cheers for LeBron,
whose dealings with Cleveland were wrong.
He couldn't win on his own,
and thus made Miami his home.
With two max players beside him,
the Heat are truly frightenin.
Unlike MJ, Kobe, Magic, Larry, and West,
LeBron decided to switch the logo on his chest.
He needed more help, he's no Rick Barry,
he needed his crab dribble, he needed to carry,
mostly he wanted Wade, to be his new daddy. 

With veterans coming to Miami from across the nation,
the Heat's roster depth was truly amazin.
Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Battier and Bird,
Helped get LeBald his 2nd ring, and Wade his third. 
Even though Bosh put up a goose egg in game 7,
the Heat still reached basketball heaven.
With Batti-flop hitting every 3,
and a late turnover from Ginobili,
in a game in which Duncan had no luck,
it was hard not to scream "fuck"! 

Seeing Danny Green miss all but one shot,
and the Spurs' season become all for naught,
was a sickening feeling, with which I was imbued; 
Parker had no lift, Splitter had no clue,
and as per usual, Neal knew not what to do. 
Manu the Great, did bounce back,
hitting 3s, dropping dimes, and going rack.
Kawhi Leonard showed great capacity,
rebounding, dunking, and defending with tenacity.
If a second competent big, the Spurs do obtain,
then next year they shall, end the King's reign.
As Wade grows older and Bosh's role doth diminish,
The Artifical Big 3 era, shall soon be finished.

My dear hoopheads, have no fear,
for all 3, can opt out after next year.
For LeBald a chance to go home and find redemption,
for Bosh a chance to be a star and get more attention.
What of the Birdman, without whom the Heat wouldn't have made the Finals,
will he be back in Miami, or return to his drug vials?

Around the league, more questions than answers,
will Dwight leave LA, or stay with Laker Girl dancers?
What of Chris Paul, the great overrated,
loved by fans, but by his teammates, hated. 
Will Ginobili retire or come back for one last run,
I hope the latter, the Spurs are so much fun.
Will Garnett be a Clipper, and bring Rivers with him,
or retire to Malibu, his fire now missin.

Regardless of what shall occur,
my views on the NBA shall not blur.
I hate the league, I hate the referees,
I honestly think there is bribery.
It is hard not to be a skeptic,
when two clear calls at the end of game 6 were neglected. 
That being said, my eyes wander not,
because nothing beats, a buzzer-beating jump shot.


SPURS IN 2014!!

FUCK

So close...so far.

Spurs should have won the game.  Duncan missed a lot of easy shots around the rim, including the backbreaker that would have tied it at 92 (with Battier on him, no less).  Parker was terrible, Green was 1-12 (apparently he left his shooting prowess at the airport in San Antonio), Neal was terrible, and Manu had a horrid turnover at the end that will likely overshadow what was a very solid game, 18 points on 12 shots (50% shooting) and 5 assists.  I have no idea why Popovich stuck with Green for so long; Danny has no off the dribble game, is allergic to 2 point makes, got repeatedly trapped in the corner, and was abused by a host of Miami players, including the generally awful Mario Chalmers.  In my opinion Diaw should have been given more run; there was a sequence early in the game when it was literally Duncan and 4 guards in, and the Heat got 3 or 4 offensive rebounds on a single play, eventually scoring.  When Green's shot is off, as it was tonight, the Spurs' best chance is Duncan at 5, Diaw at 4, Leonard at 3, Ginobili at 2, and Parker at 1.

The Spurs and their fans will be haunted this off-season, not only by tonight, but of course by the unbelievable loss in game 6.  I can only hope that 1) this loss will motivate the Spurs' players (namely Duncan and Manu) to come back next year (the latter is a free agent and hopefully he will accept a big salary cut), and 2) the Spurs will FINALLY upgrade their fucking bigs.  Tiago Splitter proved himself to be useless against Miami, as did Matt Bonner, and DeJuan Blair hasn't played a meaningful minute since 2010.  Popovich doesn't really trust Diaw, and they have no other bodies.

As for the Heat, what can you say about LeBron?  He is amazing.  The best player since Shaq.  He can guard all 5 positions and is almost always the fastest, strongest, and most athletic player on the court.  The Spurs let him shoot from his hot spot, the 3 point elbow, and he killed them from there.  He also nailed his long 2 pointers, which was really the difference in the game.  The Spurs didn't double enough.  Battier was a monster, filling in the Mike Miller role in the clincher in the Finals last year, when Miller hit 7 3s (Battier hit 6 tonight).  The Heat have so much veteran shooting that even when Miller and Allen struggle mightily (as they did tonight), the Heat can still turn to another proven flopper 3 point marksman.

All in all, a great season, a great playoff season (it is really a different entity entirely), and a wild, emotional, exhausting, and thrilling Finals.

Redemption Song

Hoping to see more of this in game 7.

Game six of the Finals, depending on whether you hate the Heat or love them (not many people are in between), was either the most exhilarating basketball game ever played, or a sickening, Game of Thrones Red Weddingesque example of how cruel the world can be.  Between Manu and Kawhi each missing a foul shot that could have guaranteed victory, to the Bosh offensive rebound with Popovich inexplicably having lifted Duncan from the game, to the two 3s, to Manu's horrid overtime turnover, to the HORRID no-calls in overtime (either of which could have changed the end result), the sequence of events was truly shattering.  I received a text message prematurely celebrating with 20something seconds left in regulation, and I responded, saying don't get happy just yet.  I did that because I didn't want to let my guard down too soon, only to then be devastated by an incredible comeback.  Well, my instincts of doom proved to be accurate.

Once things started going wrong for the Spurs, it was like a snowball going downhill.  After Parker hit two of the most clutch shots of his career (a high note on an otherwise disastrous 6-23 night) and Manu hit 2 free throws, I figured the refs (among them Joey Crawford) would do their best to force a game 7, but that it was still unlikely that the Spurs would miss enough shots and the Heat would have time to close the gap.  I was wrong.

When Popovich lifted Duncan for Boris Diaw, I could feel my eyes bulging in disbelief; this is one of the best players of all time, in the midst of a 30 point, 17 rebound performance.  Duncan, a superb rebounder and a legit 7 footer, taken out of the game to nominally increase perimeter foot speed and allow the Spurs to switch more.  Guess what: in a situation in which the Heat needed 3 pointers, if Duncan pushed up on someone on the perimeter and that person got inside for a layup, it wouldn't have mattered!

After one of Manu's ghastly turnovers led to a Bosh 3 point play on the other end, I started to fear the worst.  Popovich took Manu out, and the Spurs offense sputtered for the next several minutes. When Manu tried to go coast to coast for a layup with seconds left that would have put the Spurs ahead, and was MAULED by Ray Allen, with no foul called, the string of expletives I proffered was enough to make a rapper blush.  When Danny Green was blatantly fouled on his 3 point attempt to tie the game, I similarly was aghast.  Two absolutely terrible no calls that may have decided a championship.  How will the Spurs bounce back?

One would generally assume that a team would be unable to muster an emotional response after coming so close to tasting the ultimate victory, only to have it snatched away by a combination of bad coaching, great shooting, and horrible, possibly fixed, officiating.  However, I don't think the Spurs will no-show mentally; what worries me is how they are physically.  Duncan, Manu, and Tony all logged big minutes, and the body just doesn't heal as fast in the late 30s as it does for younger people.

Two of the Spurs' losses in this series were blowouts; certainly it is not out of the question that they will get absolutely annihilated in LeBron's (underserved, tainted) coronation.  I however do not see that as a likely scenario.  Miami will similarly be on an emotional rollercoaster after Tuesday's events, except the principals on Miami lack the composure of their San Antonio counterparts.  LeBron literally lay on the ground complaining about a no-call for a good 5 seconds while San Antonio was pushing the ball forward.  I expect Miami to start hot tonight, but if the Spurs hang in there and take the lead, the disgraceful fans of Miami (who left early on Tuesday) will quit on the team, and a sense of impending doom will fill the arena.

Miami played wonderfully on Tuesday; Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Mario Chalmers all played strong games.  Chalmers, the ultimate barometer, had 20 points on only 11 shots, and the team shot 58% from 3.  Meanwhile, Danny Green's wonderful ride came to a screeching halt, as he was 1-7, going 1-5 from 3 and badly missing floater attempts.  Gary Neal similarly was missing in action, and as previously mentioned, Parker was 6-23.  Then there was Manu.

As an unabashed Ginobilite, these playoffs have been horrible to watch.  I wish I had started this blog 10 years ago, when Manu was not only a savant, but also an amazing athlete.  As these playoffs have progressed, I have kept waiting for Manu to play like Manu, and while it has happened in spurts (his passing throughout the playoffs has been excellent), he just isn't the same guy physically.  What made him so special was his ability to turn the corner on pick and rolls, get into the teeth of the defense, and either finish or make a great pass out.  Now, against a team that has long, athletic, smart bigs, and without his first step, Ginobili is forcing things that aren't there.  I am sure that a guy who plays with the level of emotion and passion as Manu must be feeling absolutely devastated now.  He had 8 turnovers, and seemed often to be a detriment to his team.  How will a Hall of Famer bounce back from such feelings of doubt?

Throughout this series, the Spurs' counter to Miami's trapping of Ginobili on pick and rolls was for Manu to throw the ball to the screener, either Duncan or the horrible Tiago Splitter.  However, given the length and athleticism of Bosh and James, this pass has not always been there--in fact, in game 6, I would estimate Manu had at least 3-4 turnovers (conservatively) just off trying to force a pass to the screener in the pick and roll.  There must be an additional counter.  Whether that involves a third player setting a second screen on the big now chasing Manu, or Duncan setting a proper pick (whereas now, he sets half-ass screens or does not set a screen at all and just slips it), or more movement along the baseline to give Manu another passing option, something has to change.  Miami has figured out the current pick and roll attack.

Frankly, I would like to see the Spurs play through Duncan again from the outset, and use Kawhi as a ball handler on pick and rolls occasionally.  He was primarily guarded by Wade in game 6; if Miami decided to switch the pick and roll, Duncan could get an easy post catch against Wade, and if Miami decided to play soft and go under the pick, Leonard has shown enough consistency with his jumper to make them pay.  Additionally, having Manu off the ball is going to save his legs, and let him find creases in which to get open.

If I could talk to Manu I would tell him several things: 1) don't be a fucking hero every play; 2) you are allowed to shoot midrange jumpers--missed 3s and turnovers both lead to Miami fast breaks, which are anathema to the Spurs' chances; 3) remember that you are Manu fucking Ginobili; no white boy has played like you since Pistol Pete.  At your best, you legitimately could have been called the best player on Earth (2004 Olympic MVP, 2005 season robbed of Finals MVP).  Don't lose your confidence in your midrange shot, don't make hero passes when Bosh or LeBron are around, attack pick and rolls, stop falling down on defense attempting to draw fouls, and remember that you are an absolutely clutch assassin.  You are a true champion; you dominated Europe, you led the first squad to beat the US basketball team in the Olympics in decades, and you have repeatedly shown how clutch and magical you are.  I believe in you.

Champion.  

How a Chubby Frenchman Saved the Alamo

Boris Diaw, hero.  I never expected to write those words.  Obviously, Manu Ginobili was the story in game 5, but Boris Diaw was the difference in the game.  The same Boris Diaw who was cut by the Bobcats, aka the worst team in professional sports.  Michael Jordan, almost as terrible of a front office guy as he was great as a player, couldn't find a way to utilize a 6'9 guy who has point guard skills, rebounds, can guard most 3s and 4s (as well as some 2s and 5s), and who has a high basketball IQ.

Gregg Popovich, who seems to always escape criticism when things go wrong and always receive praise when he gets it right, didn't play Diaw much until game 5.  Instead, he turned to the egregiously bad, but hard-working and tall Tiago Splitter (aka The Walking Turnover aka Mr. Blown Dunk aka Mr. Can't Finish).  Splitter so far in this series has bungled at least 10 layups and dunks; he can't catch or hold onto the ball or finish.  Just awful.  Regardless, Popovich finally got it right, albeit unintentionally.  Previous to Miami's choice to go small in game 5, Popovich was using the rail-thin Danny Green as the primary defender on LeBron when Kawhi Leonard was getting a rest.  LeBron used his 60 pound (conservative estimate) advantage to simply ragdoll Green into the post.  With LeBron playing the 4, Popovich (whose previous brilliant coaching moves in this series included putting Splitter on Wade on the perimeter), finally fed up with Splitter, gave Diaw a shot.  Boris CLACK CLACKED LeBron!  Sure, James still scored 25, but he shot 8-22, and didn't get anything easy against Diaw.  Boris was able to hold his ground in the post, and was able to smartly play angles on the perimeter, preventing LBJ from blowing by him. As an unabashed Ginobili fan (and thus, a Spurs fan), I can only hope that Popovich gives Diaw another extended run.  

As game 6 approaches tonight, questions abound.  Will "genius" Popovich (why would such a "genius" wait so long to start Ginobili, knowing how much better Manu performs while in the starting lineup?) stay with Manu in the starting lineup?  Will Miami take the suddenly ineffectual Mike Miller out of the lineup?  Who would replace him--Battier or Haslem or the recently benched Birdman?  

One thing is for sure about game 6: we will see maximum effort from both squads.  Just as game 5 was a true battle in which Miami never quit despite being down as many as 20 (and looked threatening until the last 2 minutes of the game), tonight will not come down to effort.  The Heat played quite well in game 5; Wade had 25 and 10 assists (albeit on 22 shots), Ray Allen had 21 on only 10 shots, LeBron put up 25-8-6-4, Bosh had 16 points and shot over 60%, the team sizzled from 3 point range (11-23), and Miami had 16 more shots than the Spurs.  In sum, they played their asses off.  The potential x-factor for Miami is Mario Chalmers, who has a penchant for big game performances (and for disappearances).  

As for the Spurs, keeping Ginobili in the starting lineup seems to be a no-brainer.  Having 3 stars on the floor at the same time is too much for any defense to handle, even Miami's stellar and athletic squad.  The Spurs picked the Heat apart with Ginobili's passing and drives, Parker's alpha male drives on Norris Cole, the steady brilliance of Tim Duncan, and the insane outside shooting of Danny Green.  

I expect the determining factor tonight to be the refereeing.  If Joey Crawford is on the floor, the fix is in.  He literally challenged Tim Duncan to fight; how can he be a neutral arbiter?  It is unreal.  If the referees call the game fairly, and Ginobili can stay in the time machine for 1 more game, the Spurs can win tonight.  Hopefully they will.  

Game 2 Quick Preview

First of all, Game 1 was one of the highest-level games I have ever seen.  There were a combined 12 turnovers (like a normal quarter for the Pacers), and neither team beat itself.  Defenses rotated smartly, layups were few and far between, and the ball movement was crisp.  For the Heat, the bench was a huge plus; Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Norris Cole, and Birdman all played well, with all but the latter knocking down 3 pointers.  LeBron was everywhere on defense, either preventing layups or scaring folks into not even shooting.  Much has been said about Manu Ginobili (aka the best passer alive) and the pass he threw between Norris Cole's legs:

How is that even possible??

What is not being talked about is LeBron's defense on the play.  I have seen Manu throw that pass probably 10 times, and it always ends with a layup for Parker.  Not in game 1.  LeBron clearly has been studying film, and like a good free safety, he abandoned his man to make a layup-saving play.  The pass itself was insane.  Ginobili actually should have had about 4 more assists; Splitter received a pass that should have resulted in an layup (even with the foul) but missed, Ginobili hit Bonner for TWO DIFFERENT LAYUPS, and the Red Mamba was not able to convert either (on the first one, Bonner thought LeBron was in the area--he caught the ball with his back to the basket with nobody near him---and passed out, and on the second one, Bonner again sensed LeBron and rushed up a layup which he blew), to say nothing of all the wide open 3s the Spurs missed.  

From the Heat's point of view, most worrying is that Dwayne Wade's inability to shoot is being badly exploited by the Spurs, who pretty much beg him to shoot.  Ginobili and Danny Green went under every pick and roll involving Wade, and Flash was not able to make them pay.  His terrible jump shot has shrunk the court; the Spurs can pack another man near the lane, ready to stymie the next LeBron drive because Wade poses no outside threat.  

Similarly, Chris Bosh for 3 is the Spurs' preferred outcome of a Heat possession.  Bosh is no Dirk, and his range in earnest extends to about 19 feet; when he shoots 3s, it is fool's gold.  San Antonio knows this.  

Speaking of Bosh, neither he nor Haslem nor Birdman can guard Duncan; Joel Anthony has the size to match up with Tim,  but he is such a non-factor offensively that the Spurs must be thrilled every time he enters the game.  

In my opinion, the Heat's best lineup would be Bosh at the 5, LeBron at the 4, Miller at the 3, Ray Allen at the 2, and Wade at the 1.  LeBron would have to bang with Splitter in this lineup, but Splitter would have to guard either LeBron or Bosh or Miller in this lineup, which would lead to some open shots for the Heat.

One disconcerting detail I read about tonight's game 2 is that Joey Crawford is refereeing.  For those unaware, Joey Crawford (a diminutive old man) once challenged TIM DUNCAN to fight!!  This is why everyone thinks the NBA is fixed.  How could someone who wants to fight one of the players in the game ever be allowed to ref a Finals game in which said player is participating?  What a joke.  

From the Spurs' point of view, if Duncan does not pick up quick fouls (like the terribly-called blocking foul in game 1), he should be able to do work down low.  Further for San Antonio, Manu looked spry.  He got to the rim a bunch of times, converting some, getting fouled on others, and getting fouled without receiving calls on yet other drives.  If his legs are feeling good, San Antonio should win.  His passing skills are simply insane, and his defense and shooting were big positives for the Spurs in game 1.  

Manu just threw a screwball pitch with a basketball

The Spurs received clutch play from Tony Parker in the 4th; his game-clinching shot was both terrible and amazing all at once.  When the Heat put LeBron on Parker, I thought the Spurs should have given the ball handling duties to Manu, who had a comparative advantage on Wade or Allen.  Parker couldn't get past LeBron; the Spurs ran multiple pick and rolls on each play in which Parker was guarded by James, but the Frenchman simply could not free himself.  Further, Parker isn't a great passer, so there were no good shots created on those possessions (the game-clincher was not a 'good' shot in any sense of the word).  The Spurs' have to be heartened by winning despite wretched 3 point shooting from their role players, all of whom seemed to be always open and always missing.  If Neal and Leonard each had hit 1 or 2 wide open 3s, the game wouldn't have even reached the tension level that it did.

Game 2 prediction:  Sigh.  I want the Spurs to win, and believe they have a good shot at winning the series, but Crawford's inclusion worries me.  Ginobili doesn't get calls like American players of his caliber, and if the refs decide that every time a Spurs player goes up vertically to challenge a shot it is a foul, Miami will live at the line and hold on.  That being said, if Bonner, Leonard, and Neal can hit shots, it won't matter.  I am picking the Heat in a close game, against my better judgment.