Game 2 Quick Preview

First of all, Game 1 was one of the highest-level games I have ever seen.  There were a combined 12 turnovers (like a normal quarter for the Pacers), and neither team beat itself.  Defenses rotated smartly, layups were few and far between, and the ball movement was crisp.  For the Heat, the bench was a huge plus; Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Norris Cole, and Birdman all played well, with all but the latter knocking down 3 pointers.  LeBron was everywhere on defense, either preventing layups or scaring folks into not even shooting.  Much has been said about Manu Ginobili (aka the best passer alive) and the pass he threw between Norris Cole's legs:

How is that even possible??

What is not being talked about is LeBron's defense on the play.  I have seen Manu throw that pass probably 10 times, and it always ends with a layup for Parker.  Not in game 1.  LeBron clearly has been studying film, and like a good free safety, he abandoned his man to make a layup-saving play.  The pass itself was insane.  Ginobili actually should have had about 4 more assists; Splitter received a pass that should have resulted in an layup (even with the foul) but missed, Ginobili hit Bonner for TWO DIFFERENT LAYUPS, and the Red Mamba was not able to convert either (on the first one, Bonner thought LeBron was in the area--he caught the ball with his back to the basket with nobody near him---and passed out, and on the second one, Bonner again sensed LeBron and rushed up a layup which he blew), to say nothing of all the wide open 3s the Spurs missed.  

From the Heat's point of view, most worrying is that Dwayne Wade's inability to shoot is being badly exploited by the Spurs, who pretty much beg him to shoot.  Ginobili and Danny Green went under every pick and roll involving Wade, and Flash was not able to make them pay.  His terrible jump shot has shrunk the court; the Spurs can pack another man near the lane, ready to stymie the next LeBron drive because Wade poses no outside threat.  

Similarly, Chris Bosh for 3 is the Spurs' preferred outcome of a Heat possession.  Bosh is no Dirk, and his range in earnest extends to about 19 feet; when he shoots 3s, it is fool's gold.  San Antonio knows this.  

Speaking of Bosh, neither he nor Haslem nor Birdman can guard Duncan; Joel Anthony has the size to match up with Tim,  but he is such a non-factor offensively that the Spurs must be thrilled every time he enters the game.  

In my opinion, the Heat's best lineup would be Bosh at the 5, LeBron at the 4, Miller at the 3, Ray Allen at the 2, and Wade at the 1.  LeBron would have to bang with Splitter in this lineup, but Splitter would have to guard either LeBron or Bosh or Miller in this lineup, which would lead to some open shots for the Heat.

One disconcerting detail I read about tonight's game 2 is that Joey Crawford is refereeing.  For those unaware, Joey Crawford (a diminutive old man) once challenged TIM DUNCAN to fight!!  This is why everyone thinks the NBA is fixed.  How could someone who wants to fight one of the players in the game ever be allowed to ref a Finals game in which said player is participating?  What a joke.  

From the Spurs' point of view, if Duncan does not pick up quick fouls (like the terribly-called blocking foul in game 1), he should be able to do work down low.  Further for San Antonio, Manu looked spry.  He got to the rim a bunch of times, converting some, getting fouled on others, and getting fouled without receiving calls on yet other drives.  If his legs are feeling good, San Antonio should win.  His passing skills are simply insane, and his defense and shooting were big positives for the Spurs in game 1.  

Manu just threw a screwball pitch with a basketball

The Spurs received clutch play from Tony Parker in the 4th; his game-clinching shot was both terrible and amazing all at once.  When the Heat put LeBron on Parker, I thought the Spurs should have given the ball handling duties to Manu, who had a comparative advantage on Wade or Allen.  Parker couldn't get past LeBron; the Spurs ran multiple pick and rolls on each play in which Parker was guarded by James, but the Frenchman simply could not free himself.  Further, Parker isn't a great passer, so there were no good shots created on those possessions (the game-clincher was not a 'good' shot in any sense of the word).  The Spurs' have to be heartened by winning despite wretched 3 point shooting from their role players, all of whom seemed to be always open and always missing.  If Neal and Leonard each had hit 1 or 2 wide open 3s, the game wouldn't have even reached the tension level that it did.

Game 2 prediction:  Sigh.  I want the Spurs to win, and believe they have a good shot at winning the series, but Crawford's inclusion worries me.  Ginobili doesn't get calls like American players of his caliber, and if the refs decide that every time a Spurs player goes up vertically to challenge a shot it is a foul, Miami will live at the line and hold on.  That being said, if Bonner, Leonard, and Neal can hit shots, it won't matter.  I am picking the Heat in a close game, against my better judgment.