Die Another Day

After last night's nail-biter (yes, a nail-biter and a blowout at the same time), Spurs fane awoke today with smiles on their faces.  These weren't the smiles of victory, mind you, but rather the smiles of fans not yet defeated.  What does that mean, exactly?  Miami has an aura of invincibility to it; after last year's choke job/comeback in game 6, Spurs' fans would have been well within their rights to believe that victory against the Heat was impossible.  After all, Duncan, Manu, and Parker are all a year older, while LeBron is still the NBA's version of Hulk Hogan, Anderson Silva, Fedor, Michael Jordan, and Alexander Karelin rolled into one.  When he "Hulked up" in game 2 and started hitting long contested jumper after long contested jumper, Spurs fans could only say to themselves, "not again".  The Spurs clearly have the better team, but it often seems as though LeBron can score any time he wants to, which demoralizes opponents and helps struggling teammates.

Last night San Antonio had to contend with the lingering stench from the game 2 loss, the four missed free throws in a row in the fourth quarter, and doubts from last year's Finals.  A victory in game 3 would not have meant certain victory for the aging team from Texas, but a loss, in all likelihood, would have meant the series was over.  Even for a team as mentally strong as San Antonio, getting past the events of last season, and then having to deal with a seeming recurrence of the same tragic (tragic in the context of sports, not life) fate, would prove almost insurmountable to overcome.  

What Changed Between Games Two and Three?

Kawhi Leonard, playing at a high level all season long, got in quick foul trouble in game 2 and spent the night looking meek on offense and enjoying long swaths of time on the bench.  Similarly in game 1 he was unproductive on the offensive end, scoring only 9 points (the same as his game 2 total). By contrast in game 3, he was in attack mode on offense from the get-go, avoided foul trouble, and played lights-out defense on LeBron James, forcing 7 turnovers.  Leonard set the tone early as the Spurs build a massive lead, and his stellar play continued all game long, finishing with 29 points.  More than mere stats, his dominant first quarter gave the Spurs the emotional boost they needed to galvanize their confidence after the deflating game 2 defeat.  Leonard's ability to stay on the floor will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series.  

The second key was Danny Green finally learning how to dribble a basketball.  Green, a wonderful, streaky, pure shooter, had never shown much in the way of handle or willingness to go rack.  That changed in game 3.  Green finished 7-8 from the field, with only two of those attempts coming from three.  Instead, the shooting guard from UNC pump faked off the catch and drove to the rim, finishing an and-one layup on a play in which he blew by LeBron (although he missed the free throw).  The added pressure that Green's drives put on the Heat defense led to open shots for San Antonio.  Additionally, Green played stellar defense, getting five steals over the course of the game.  If Green can keep up his offensive aggression, the Spurs will be quite difficult to stop.

Lastly, Popovich made the decision to split up Duncan and Splitter.  This was a wise move; spacing-wise, San Antonio is much easier to guard with only 1 immobile non-shooter in the game.  Getting Boris Diaw on the court is like having a second point guard (or third in case Ginobili and Parker are both in the game), and the chubby Frenchman also showed an aggressive streak on offense which has rarely been seen.  Diaw went right at Bosh and James Jones and anyone else who was guarding him, using his girth and surprsingly quick feet.  He also made some stellar passes and was a force on the glass, as per usual.  Of course he also provides the additional ability to guard perimeter players, which Splitter and Duncan do not do particularly well.  

How Will Miami Respond?

Just as in the game 1 loss, Miami did not play poorly on offense; the Heat shot over 50% and hit 10 three-pointers, at a 47% clip.  They turned the ball over far too much however, and have gotten terrible point guard play.  Where do they go from here?  It seems clear that the Heat's 7 best players are LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Birdman, and Norris Cole.  Given LeBron's ability to play any position and Bosh's ability to play a stretch 5, the team's best offensive lineup in crunch time is Bosh at the center position, Lewis at power forward, LeBron at small forward, with Wade and Allen in the backcourt.  Norris Cole provides stellar defense and should get more of Chalmers' minutes.  Birdman has proven adept at guarding Duncan one on one, something I did not expect.  Inexplicably, Bosh only had 4 shots in game 3, making all of them.  Miami needs to get him the ball more, as his combination of size, shooting, surprising quickness, and handle, make him a matchup nightmare for Duncan or Splitter.   

  

Finals Preview---Vengeance or Heartbreak?

Any Spurs fan knows that game 6 of the Finals last season was roughly equivalent to the Red Wedding of basketball games.  I received a text when the Spurs went up by 5 with 28 seconds, saying only "congrats".  I replied that the game wasn't over yet, because in my cynical heart, I didn't think the basketball gods would ever actually allow the Spurs to win.  Sadly, I was right.  The Heat are basically the Lannisters; they have their charms, sure, but at the end of the day, the team is an inorganic construction which defies the laws of gods and men.  Last year's Finals got so close to the good guys winning, only to snatch it away at the last second; it seriously felt like one of those Game of Thrones episodes that just feel like a kick to the nuts.

Ray Allen hitting the biggest shot of his life.

That being said, conventional wisdom (ie basketball fans with whom I have spoken) seems to lean towards the Spurs in the rematch, with the logic being that this year's Spurs are slightly better than last year's edition, and this year's Heat is slightly worse.  Let's break that down:

SPURS

Improvements:

1.  The Wizard is back.  

Manu Ginobili suffered an awful stretch of basketball last postseason, for the first time in his career.  The man who built his reputation for his stellar postseason and Olympic play, looked downright pedestrian.  His first step slowed, his jumper seemed to always be off, and his legs seemed gone.  In recompense, he tried things to overcome his newfound physical shortcomings, leading to a rash of turnovers.  Manu still had some great playoff moments, like his buzzer beating 3 against Golden State and his 24 point 10 assist game against the Heat, but for the most part, Manu did not look like a Hall of Fame player.  As Charles Barkley always says, Father Time is undefeated.  

This year however, Manu has bounced back in a major way.  He isn't the player he was 5 years ago, but he looks healthy.  He is shooting a far better percentage this postseason from the field, from 3, and from the free throw line than last year, as well as increasing his steals and cutting his turnovers.  To steal a technique from Bill Simmons, here are 5 players and their per 48 minute stats this postseason:

Player 1: 28 points per 48 minutes (PP48), 8 assists per 48 (AP48), 3.36 steals per 48 (SP48), 6.5 rebounds per 48 (RP48), 1.37 points per shot (PPS)

Player 2: 25.8 PP48, 5.9 AP48, 2.03 SP48, 5.3 RP48, 1.31 PPS

Player 3: 29.4 PP48, 6.4 AP48, 2.19 SP48, 5.1 RP48, 1.21 PPS

Player 4: 34 PP48, 6.3 AP48, 2.26 SP48, 8.5 RP48, 1.63 PPS

Player 5: 33.2 PP48, 4.4 AP48, 1.12 SP48, 10 RP48, 1.33 PPS

Player 1 is Ginobili, 2 is Wade, 3 is Harden, 4 is LeBron, and 5 is Kevin Durant.  Basically, Manu is playing at the absolute highest level of ball.  His return to health means that the Spurs have an all star-caliber player on the court at all times.  

2. Australia in Texas

Patty Mills used to get no run from Popovich, because he was out of shape and inconsistent with his shot.  This year he gained Pop's confidence, and has provided a major spark which did not exist last year.  Instead of Ginobili playing point guard when Tony Parker rests, the Spurs now have another legitimate offensive weapon to throw at the Heat.  

Those are the main two improvements the Spurs have made.  Kawhi Leonard has become a bit more consistent with his shot and assertive, but not a major leap forward.  He remains a lockdown perimeter defender and a capable shooter, slasher, and finisher.  He is well-known for his rebounding prowess, and has the best combination of traits to deal with LeBron this side of Paul George (and in fact maybe even better than George, as he is physically stronger than the Indiana small forward).  Marco Bellinelli was perhaps a marginal improvement over the underrated Gary Neal, but that's it.  Basically, the reason folks are picking the Spurs comes down to the fact that Ginobili looks like himself again.

HEAT

The Heat haven't improved at all this year.  Wade is a little less explosive, Mike Miller is gone, and Battier looks like he can barely move.  However they still have the best player alive, they still have a 7 footer in Bosh who can step out behind the 3 point line (on occasion), Wade is still a 230 pound running back with a good midrange jumper, Norris Cole is still a great defender, and Birdman seems to be getting better with age.  Oh yeah, they also have the best 3 point shooter of this generation in Ray Allen.

Breakdown by position:

Point Guard

Advantage Spurs.  Assuming the Frenchman's ankle is anything approaching normal, he will have a massive advantage over Chalmers or Cole.  I expect the latter to play big minutes this series because he has a far better chance to stay in front of Parker than Mario does.  On the other end, Parker is a below average defender, but Chalmers and Cole are at best average offensive players.  Patty Mills is a better offensive player than either Chalmers or Cole, and a better defender than Parker.  It will be interesting to see if both teams go super small, with double point guard alignments.  

Shooting Guard

Advantage Spurs.  Ginobili and Wade may cancel each other out, but the Spurs have great depth at the position, bringing in sweet-shooting Danny Green and Italian Ice, aka Marco Bellinelli.  The Heat bring in Ray Allen, who, despite looking not a day over 28, is a real shell of himself.  I never thought I would say these words, but at this point, Danny Green is better than Jesus Shuttlesworth.  

Small Forward

Advantage Heat.  LeBron may be the best player ever not named Michael Jordan.  Who knows.  He is some weird fusion of Karl Malone, Magic, and MJ.  Nobody can really stop him, but Kawhi Leonard has the ability to make him work and to body him up (some).  Boris Diaw as well did an excellent job using his quick feet and big body to slow him last year.  On the other end, Leonard has become a well rounded offensive player, a beastly defender (named 2nd team all-NBA defense), and a great rebounder.  LeBron will have to guard him some or the corner 3s will rain down.  Rashard Lewis, dragged out of his coffin in time for the conference finals, is a wild card, as is the decrepit Shane Battier.  If those two are hitting their open or semi-open 3s, the Heat have a great chance to win.

Power Forward

Advantage Spurs.  Bosh and Duncan mostly cancel each other out, but Diaw is a massive upgrade over Haslem.  Duncan showed flashes against OKC of the form which made him a living legend.  Bosh will step out to the 3 point line to draw Duncan from the hoop.  If he can make his 3s, the Heat win.  If he can't, they lose.  

Center

Advantage: Even.  Splitter has proven to be a serviceable big man, but against the Heat last year, he couldn't even stay on the floor.  Ginobili showered him with dunk opportunities, but with his nonexistent vertical leap and poor ability to catch and finish in traffic, he wasted most of them.  On the other hand, Birdman is an impact help defender, a great finisher, a rim protector, and a strong rebounder.  He can't shoot and doesn't play much though, nor does he defend well in the post.  If Duncan gets him one on one down low, there will be a foul on Birdman, a bucket for Duncan, or a wide open 3.  

THE PICK

Spurs in 7.  The Lannisters aren't the only ones who pay their debts.  

Pacers vs Heat: Redux

For basketball fans, the NBA playoffs are an oasis of quality in a desert of mediocrity.  No more Milwaukee vs Philadelphia brick-fests, no more Denver vs Minnesota games in which neither side even makes an effort to play defense, and no more games that don't matter.  We are down to the final 21 games of the season.  Whichever team can win 8 of 14 wins the title.  Here are the combatants in the Eastern Conference:

Indiana vs Miami

I still have no idea how the Pacers beat the mighty Wizards; Washington was the more talented team, but managed to display a shocking amount of nerves, greenness, and poor decision-making.  Between that combination and Indiana's stifling defense, the Pacers managed to win the series.  John Wall and friends probably should have beaten Indiana in five games; one can only hope that they learn from their subpar showing and improve next year.  Indiana meanwhile seems to have shaken off at least some of the cobwebs; they played this entire season with the goal of obtaining home court advantage against Miami, and now it is theirs.

In the Washington series, Indiana received stellar performances from Paul George, as per usual, and from David West, showing flashes of his form from seven years ago.  Most importantly, Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert seemed to awaken from his five-month coma.  He is one of the keys to victory against Miami.  Oddly enough, the Pacers actually match up better with the Heat than with the Wizards. Washington was able to hurt Indiana with a lightning fast, elite point guard, while Miami has Mario Chalmers.  Washington was able to stretch Indiana's defense with a long-range bomber at the shooting guard spot, while Miami's Dwayne Wade should never be allowed to shoot from more than 18 feet away from the hoop.  That paucity of shooting at the two guard allows Lance Stephenson to take another full step towards the middle of the court, taking valuable driving lanes away from LeBron.  Washington additionally was able to physically dominate for stretches on the inside, relying on the strength and toughness of Gortat and Nene, while Miami's interior "behemoths" encompass the rail thin Chris Bosh, recovering drug addict Birdman (who always appears mere meals away from anorexia), and 6'7 Udonis Haslem, who peaked as a basketball player roughly ten years ago.   Who among that triumvirate can guard lumbering 7'2 Roy Hibbert and burly bouncer-in-training David West, is anyone's guess.  There is always Greg Oden's corpse waiting to be dragged off the bench in case of emergencies, and the size disparity in this matchup very well may constitute a time for Spoelstra to break the glass encasing and insert the former number one pick.

Of course, nobody knows how good Greg Oden is at this point of his career.  He has gotten a bit of playing time this season, and it is clear that even in his mostly-broken state, he is still a better option to guard Hibbert than anyone else on the Heat's roster.  What he provides on offense is offensive rebounds and a big body with which to set screens.  On the downside for Miami, Oden may actually be even slower than Hibbert, is rusty, does not move well laterally, and likely has stamina issues (although that may not be much of a concern if Miami, as expected, only uses him briefly).  Indiana would surely counter Oden's presence by putting him in pick and rolls, to take him away from the basket and create serious mismatches.

Indiana is the rare team with the perimeter defenders to deal with both LeBron and Wade; Lance Stephenson is 6'5 230, with good foot speed and shocking strength for a shooting guard.  Dwayne Wade, unlike the Pacers' previous shooting guard opponent (Bradley Beal), is a terrible shooter from long range, and gets the bulk of his points inside (post-ups, cuts to the basket, and put-backs) and on drives.  Against Stephenson, Wade's post-ups will lack their normal efficacy, as Wade will be at a rare size and strength disadvantage for his position.  When Stephenson has the ball, he works well in the post, and has shown that he may be the best passer on the team.  If he can get Wade in foul trouble, LeBron will have to handle an even greater share of the offensive load.

Paul George guards LeBron as well as anyone, and of perhaps equal import, makes LeBron work on the other end.  George has shown repeatedly that he possesses the ability to blow by LeBron and finish over the top of anyone.  George is getting better each year, while LeBron has reached the plateau of his powers.  The difference between the two is smaller than it was even last year.

George Hill has a much easier job checking Mario Chalmers than he did guarding John Wall; Hill is an excellent defender, and can guard Wade for stretches as well, due to his quickness, smarts, and long arms.  On the other side of the ball, Hill is more of a shooting guard in a point guard's body, rather than an actual point guard.  Chalmers is a solid if not spectacular defender, but Hill should not struggle to get 10-14 points per game in this series.  If he can get that number up to the 17-20 range, the Pacers will win the series.

Chris Bosh is perhaps the best non-German power forward at hitting long jump shots.  This year he even showed the ability to step behind the three-point line and knock shots down from deep.  If Miami chooses to move Bosh far away from the rim to create driving lanes, the way Indiana plays Bosh will be crucial.  If he hits a few 3s, Miami will be hard to stop.  If he misses and West sags off of him, the driving lanes will vanish.  Spoelstra may try to establish Bosh from deep or at least from midrange early, even having him move without the ball and making West chase him around the court, a serious role change for the burly Indiana power forward.  On the other end, look for West to try to use his size and strength to bully Bosh.  Last year when these two teams met in the playoffs, West missed a lot of short shots, due partially to the length and quickness of Bosh and Birdman.  If West had converted those, the Pacers would have gone to the Finals.

Prediction:  The Heat have the ability to clamp down in a way that no other team really does; LeBron can guard everyone on the court and be everywhere at any given moment.  Indiana's defense is stifling, but the team lacks shooting.  Chris Copeland, acquired as a free agent from the Knicks, could be the X Factor in this series due to his sweet stroke, but Vogel seems unable to figure out how to use him.

The Pacers were the ultimate enigma this year; they were the best team in basketball for much of the season, then became a .500 team after the all All-Star break.  They struggled against a 38 win team in Atlanta playing without its best player, and then got lucky to beat a young and inexperienced Wizards' team.  That being said, they know Miami, they hate Miami, and they have the size, athleticism, and defense to stop Miami.  This series will come down to the ends of games; which team will be able to impose its will when each possession counts?  LeBron is still the best player alive, and he will either make shots or draw contact (which the referees always reward due to his star status and hysterical complaints).  HEAT in 7.  

Conference Semifinals, Part 1

After undoubtedly the greatest first round in NBA playoff history, we move on to a field of 8.  Part 1 will break down the matchup between the mighty Wizards and the bipolar Pacers, and the post-racial Clippers against the exposed Thunder.

WIZARDS vs pacers

Ok, I capitalized Wizards and didn't do the same for the Pacers because I am a homer; what do you want from me?  I will still try to be objective.

Point Guard:  Wall vs George Hill.  Advantage: Wall
John Wall may be the fastest guy with the ball in the entire league.  When he goes to the hoop, he is quite difficult to stop.  Wall's combo of speed, handle, height, vertical, body control, and improved court vision make him an elite player.  His midrange jumper has markedly improved, as his confidence in his three-point shot.  Wall is not a great defender, despite his considerable physical talent.  Far too often he gets embarrassed in pick and roll situations, and against the Bulls, Wall had great difficulty corralling DJ Augustin.

George Hill is a point guard in name only.  On San Antonio, Popovich used Hill as a 2 guard with Parker at the 1 and Ginobili at the 3.  Hill is a cocksure midrange shooter and an excellent defender, fleet of foot, with long arms, a penchant for staying in front of his man, and great closing ability.  He hit his fair share of clutch shots with San Antonio, playing off the brilliance of Parker and Ginobili.  When asked to be the ball handler of record for a team, he doesn't have what it takes to be a great player.  He is not a special offensive player by any means, but is solid.

This series will see Hill occasionally outclassed; Wall is the rare point guard at 6'4 who is taller and faster than Hill, a good defender standing 6'3.  The Hawks ran roughshod over Atlanta's vaunted defense, with Jeff Teague playing the role of the protagonist.  Anything Teague can do, Wall can do better (hopefully).  If the Wiz run pick and rolls with Wall, it will be interesting to see if the Pacers trap Wall, go under the screen to make Wall shoot, go over and have the big show (opening up a passing lane to a cutting Nene or Gortat), or switch.  If the Pacers switch, Wall should be able to get wherever he wants.  If they go under screens, he has to make them pay.  If they trap, the Wizards have to pass it around and make the Pacers scramble on defense until a good shot presents itself.

Shooting Guard:  Bradley Beal vs Lance Stephenson.  Advantage: Tie

Beal is a far better shooter than Stephenson, and also has more athleticism.  The Ray Allen comparisons are not that far off the mark, at least as it pertains to Beal's stroke.  Defensively, Beal is not exactly setting the world on fire.  He is not a great one on one defender, and his positioning on pick and roll coverage is suspect.  If Beal can consistently  hit his jumpers and beat Stephenson off the dribble (both of which are within the realm of possibility), the Wizards will be in great shape.  

Stephenson is a 230 pound manimal of a shooting guard who averaged 9 rebounds per game against Atlanta in the first round.  He is powerful, determined, and legitimately may be crazy.  I would liken him to Tyreke Evans, but with a better jump shot, more intensity, and a meth habit.  Stephenson is a better passer than Beal, but this season showed a propensity to assist-hunt in order to pursue triple-doubles, causing the offense to stagnate in the process.

Small Forward:  Trevor Ariza vs Paul George.  Advantage: George

Paul George has proven to be an elite player; he has a very good handle, a sweet stroke, great hops, and is a stopper on the defensive end.  We saw last year in the playoffs that George had no fear of LeBron, playing excellent D on him and going at him hard, including blowing by James to dunk on Birdman's soul.  This year he again showed off his quicks, handle, and vertical, crossing up LeBron once again and dunking on his head.  In the first round against Atlanta, George put up 23 ppg, 11 rebounds per game, 5 assists per game, and 2.5 steals per game while shooting better than 40% from the three-point line.  He has to play great for the Pacers to win this series.

Trevor Ariza is a gifted athlete, shooter, and defender, but has never put it all together (mostly because of his lack of great handle and lack of desire to be a go-to guy).  He has the ability to disrupt George on offense, and make him work on defense.  If Ariza is able to keep George in front of him, the Pacers will be in trouble.  The success (or lack thereof) of pick and rolls with George and a Pacer big will go a long way to determining who wins this series.

Power Forward:  Nene vs David West.  Advantage: Nene

David West has been living off his name more than his game for several seasons now.  He underwhelmed against Miami last year, and has continued to do so this season.  He averaged 13 points, 7 rebounds, and a surprising 5 assists per game against Atlanta, a team missing its best player (and best big) in Al Horford.  West has a good outside shot, is a strong and physical man on the inside, and is great at scowling.  If he leads his team in assists again in this series, it probably does not bode well for the Pacers.

Going against West will be the oft-injured Nene, aka Brazilian Fabio, aka the biggest enigma in basketball.  Nene is actually bigger and stronger than West, has a far more refined offensive game, but has never reached his potential.  Against Chicago, as he assaulted Joakim Noah and made a laughingstock out of Noah's Defensive Player of the Year win, it appeared as though Nene was finally starting to appreciate the gravity of the moment, at least until he applied a muay Thai clinch to Jimmy Butler and headbutted him, like a complete idiot.


Center:  Martin "The Polish Hammer" Gortat vs Roy "Big Slow" Hibbert.  Advantage: Gortat

Marcin Gortat did not have a great series against the hapless Bulls.  He shot under 40%, and missed a lot of close shots that he normally makes.  Defensively though he was solid, collecting 10 rebounds (mostly in traffic) and 2 blocks per game.  He will have a massive footspeed advantage against Hibbert, but his back to the basket game will be nullified by Hibbert's size and length.  If Gortat can hit his open midrange shots, he will draw Big Slow away from the rim and open up driving lanes for Wall and Beal.

Roy Hibbert, once the toast of basketball fans for how he defends the rim, went south in a big way this season.  Against Atlanta, despite being 7'2, he shot 37% from the field and averaged 5 and under 4 rebounds per game.  Yikes.   Who knows why Hibbert has regressed so much.  One theory is that he was hurt when the Pacers brought in Andrew Bynum, who, when even somewhat healthy, is a far better player than Hibbert (of course, the caveat "when healthy" for Bynum is an asterisk the size of a small country).  Whatever the cause, Hibbert seems to have lost his basketball mojo.  Will he get it back against Washington?  There is no evidence to suggest he will.

Bench:  Advantage: Wizards

Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and forever undersized Trevor Booker give the Wizards a solid 8 man rotation, to say nothing of Drew Gooden and his antics (always something to watch).  The Pacers counter with the solid CJ Watson, the disappearing Evan Turner (fresh off his brawl with teammate Lance Stephenson), fifteen-years past his prime Luis Scola and his 3 inch vertical leap, and Ian Mahinmi.  An X factor could be Chris Copeland, who finally got a bit of run against Atlanta.  He is big enough to play the 4, and consistently shoots the 3 at over 40%.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Indiana go small with West, Copeland, George, Stephenson, and Hill, if things get desperate.

Pick:  Wizards in 6.  

I realize that Indiana is a far more experienced team, and if I weren't a homer I would probably pick them.  However, it is hard to ignore how much they have sucked the last half of the year.  It took them 7 games to beat a team in the first round which finished below .500, and was playing without its best player.  Washington has a better backcourt, better bigs, a better bench, and guys in Ariza and Webster who can at least make Paul George really work for his points.  Defensively, Indiana is supposed to be a juggernaut, but they don't really resemble the bunch who pushed Miami to the limit.  If I am wrong, I look forward to seeing Paul George and LeBron play again, but I am not yet ready to say that Indiana's 2 game winning streak (games 6 and 7 against the Hawks) means anything.



Clippers vs Thunder

I don't have time for a real breakdown, but this series promises to be amazing.  Durant is the best offensive player alive, Westbrook is the most athletic point guard in the league, Griffin elevated himself to a legitimate MVP candidate this year, and Chris Paul is still likely the best point guard alive, although he has never been good enough to propel a team to the Finals.

The Clippers have depth in spades; Redick, Crawford, Barnes, and even Jared Dudley can shoot the ball and stretch the floor.  Inside they have Shawn Kemp 2.0 and DeAndre Jordan, who looks like he could dunk on a 12 foot rim.  Against the Warriors, missing their defensive anchor in Andrew Bynum, Jordan seemed to get EVERY rebound, with series averages of 15 rebounds and 4 blocks per contest.  Yet despite that size advantage, the Warriors took LAC to 7 games.  Against the tremendous Serge Ibaka (at least defensively), scowling Kendrick Perkins, grizzled veteran Nick Collison, and rugged shot-blocking rookie behemoth Steven Adams, the Clippers will not dominate the paint as they did last series.  If Blake can't draw double teams and can't score over Ibaka, the Clippers are in trouble.  Moreover, there is nobody on their roster who can check Durant.  AT ALL.  I expect him to get more than 30 points a game, and for the Thunder to overcome their depth issues through the individual brilliance of Durant and Westbrook.   After dealing with the suffocating defense of Memphis for 7 games, the Clippers' defense will seem rather lax by comparison.

Pick:  Thunder in 6.

Donald Sterling Truths

Forever disgraced.

Things that are true:

1.  Donald Sterling is a despicable, loathsome racist, and the owners will be doing the right thing for the the NBA when they vote to strip him of his team ownership.  

2.  Everyone in the NBA knew Sterling was at the very least an alleged racist, before he got caught on tape.  All the players who have chosen to sign with the team knew of Sterling's views and actions.  From the lawsuit brought by Elgin Baylor, to the DOJ suit in 2006 and again in 2009 for refusing to rent apartments to black and Latino families, this was not out of the ordinary.

3.  Donald Sterling has already won a lifetime achievement award from the NAACP.  He was going to be awarded with a second one had it not been for this.  The NAACP knew of his discretions but didn't care, because he kept donating.  Just like the players.  

4.  His girlfriend was a money-grubbing seductress, as well as half-black, and yet she maintained their relationship despite his horrific racism.  The estranged wife of Donald Sterling is suing her for two million dollars, which was allegedly community property between the Sterlings, and given to Ms. Stiviano by Donald Sterling without his wife's consent.   

5.  Ms. Stiviano recorded and released the tapes; why, who knows?  There was no good reason for doing so.  She sounds as though she is feeding him questions just to use to blackmail him.  Certainly the lawsuit hanging overhead couldn't have had anything to do with it...

6.  Commissioner Silver's decision, while garnering popular acclaim, could raise questions in the future.  If someone can be removed from the league and fined 2.5 million dollars for his (horribly racist) thoughts expressed in a private conversation, where is the line?  If a player is caught on a microphone expressing hatred of gays or Muslims or Jews or any other group of people, will he be similarly dealt with by the NBA?  If not, what does that say about the league?  Why would owners be held to a higher standard than players?  Why should we expect more from one group of super-rich people than another?  

7.  Good riddance.  

Playoff Musings

GO WIZ GO

the Brazilian Fabio, only more injury-prone

As I told a reader today, the reason the Wizards are beating the Bulls (as I write this, the Wizards are up 56-49 at the half in a game that shouldn't be nearly that close--the Wiz seem to clearly be the better team) is because the Bulls' regular season was a facade.  Chicago had a good regular season record for two reasons: they are in the (L)eastern Conference, and they play harder than everyone else.  In the playoffs, effort is not an advantage anymore, as every team plays its collective ass off on every possession (except the hapless Warriors, who lost by 40 points last night, but I digress).   Nene, when healthy (not often), is a far more dangerous player than Noah, Gortat is better than Taj Gibson (although tonight Taj is the best front court player on the court for either team, absolutely massacring the Wizards to the tune of 5 offensive rebounds in the first half), and the Wizards' wings are far better than those of Chicago (although John Wall disgracefully still has not figured out that he has to go over picks when DJ Augustin is in the game).   On an unrelated note, the officiating in this game has been horrendous; it seems that any time a Wizard reaches for the ball, a whistle is called, whereas any time a Bull hits a Wizard in the face, it is an automatic no call.

NO SLEEP TILL BROOKLYN

The Bulls' collective lack of talent makes one wonder why the Nets chose to tank to avoid them.  The simple answer is that an ancient team like Brooklyn didn't want to deal with all the pounding that would come with playing the Bulls.  Toronto is a lot more talented than Chicago, but not as prone towards dishing out contusions.  Meanwhile, New Jersey stole a game in Toronto and looks likely to win the series; Paul Pierce needs to have only 4 decent games to guarantee they win the series.  We cannot count out Toronto however; they are so much more athletic than Brooklyn that their collective inexperience is not necessarily dispositive of the result of the series.

GRIZZZZ

Memphis vs OKC is the best first-round series in a long time.  Memphis would be the best or second-best team in the Eastern Conference, but likely will not make it out of the first round.  Kevin Durant is the best offensive player alive; he is entirely unguardable.  Luckily for Memphis, the rest of his team is average at best.  Westbrook is a human highlight reel, but also makes enough bone-headed plays to wonder how much he actually helps his team on the balance.  Mike Miller hit 3 3s in game 2, which gave the team some spacing.  Zach Randolph and Gasol are too much for Ibaka and the untalented Kendrick Perkins inside.  Scott Brooks is generally outwitted in coaching matchups, and this series is no different.  If OKC is to win, Reggie Jackson is going to have to step up and stop the Grizzlies from having 10 eyes on Durant at all times.

PACERS

Indiana woke up.  I think they will win the next 3 games.  Paul George looked like the guy who played (almost) even against LeBron in the playoffs, Luis Scola climbed in the time machine, and CJ Watson provided an unexpected spark.  They still have no idea how to get Hibbert going, but in this shitty conference, against a team with a that finished below .500, it won't have any consequences on the Pacers' ability to get out of this round.

NBA PLAYOFF SPOILERS

Friends,

The best time of the year is upon us: finally, the NBA takes center stage.  No helmets, no players who only play offense or defense (unlike the NFL and Carmelo Anthony), no excessive ball scratching by men who have a 90% chance of not even breaking into a sweat during a game, and no skating.  Just 10 men fighting over every square inch of a basketball court, with the lion's share of the fighting occurring in the half court.  Half court playoff basketball is like a beautifully choreographed indoor rugby scrum.  Instead of regular season basketball (in which shooters run off screens freely without getting chipped by multiple defenders, in which layups are sometimes conceded, in which hard fouls are rare), playoff basketball basically constitutes a war of attrition.  

There are several requirements for playoff success: discipline (sorry Wizards), someone who can consistently create open shots for his teammates through drawing double-teams or pick and roll acumen (sorry Bulls, sorry Atlanta), experience (sorry Portland, sorry Toronto, sorry Charlotte), a commitment to defense (sorry Golden State--without Bogut you have no shot; sorry Houston, James Harden is on your team, sorry Dallas, you have 1 above average defender in your starting lineup).  This leaves us with the Spurs, Heat, Thunder, Pacers, Grizzlies, Nets, and Clippers as legitimate title contenders.

Here are the round 1 breakdowns, with Eastern Conference match-ups followed by Western Conference match-ups:


INDIANA vs ATLANTA

that's elevation, homes.

The Pacers' main goal this season was to get home-court advantage, so that game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals will be played in Indiana rather than Miami.  So far so good.
The Pacers are hardly even interested in playing teams other than Miami, and I doubt this wounded Atlanta team will provide much of a hurdle.

This series will be a sweep or last five games.  As poorly as the Pacers have played the last few months, they are still a far better team than the Hawks (although the teams did split in the regular season).  Atlanta, which once again has had to deal with a season-ending torn pec injury to Al Horford (the team's best player), has nothing for Indy.  Paul Millsap has shown that he is a borderline All-Star, but the team has no elite perimeter players, and Paul George is perhaps better equipped than any other wing defender in the league to chase Kyle Korver around and prevent the sharpshooter from getting open looks.

X Factor:  The Pacers have subpar point guard play and have no clue how to actually get the ball to Roy Hibbert in the deep post.  Part of that is due to poor play design, partly due to poor decision-making, and partly due to Hibbert's inability to get low and create the torque required to move his man backward enough to catch the ball on the low block.  If the Hawks come out and shock Indy in game 1, Hibbert may go off the hinges and criticize his teammates again, which could lead to the whole squad sniping at each other and a shocking first round upset.  The moral of the story is that the Pacers need to get Hibbert the ball near the basket early and often.   Pacers in 5.  


MIAMI vs CHARLOTTE

#differencemaker

I had the pleasure of seeing the mighty Bobcats beat my beloved Wizards in person several weeks ago and have a number of takeaways from that tour de force.

1. Al Jefferson is really good in the low post (although he doesn't get to the line enough) and Miami has nobody heavy enough to guard him, except for Greg Oden's carcass.
2. I don't know if it was because the Wizards are just abysmal defensively, but Gary Neal can flat out play.  He made Bradley Beal look like a high school JV player.
3. Kemba Walker is one of the more underrated players in the league; he has silly quickness and makes great decisions.  Against the Wizards, it seemed that when Kemba was on the floor, Charlotte always got an open shot.  
4. Josh McRoberts can stretch the floor and is one of the best passing bigs in the league.  
5. Kidd-Gilchrest may be the best perimeter defender in the league, but god is he awful offensively.  

Miami swept the season series, including a one-point win and an overtime win.  In the fourth and final meeting between the two teams this year, Miami won comfortably, but it took LeBron scoring 61 to make that happen.  The Heat this year are not what they were the last two years; Mike Miller and his clutch shooting are gone, Battier has regressed considerably, Wade is banged up (missed 28 games-which may be a blessing in disguise), Birdman is banged up, Joel Anthony is gone, and there has not been any noticeable improvement from any other Heat players.  That being said, they still have LeBron.  Heat in 5.  


NETS vs RAPTORS

nice and calm.

Easily the most unlikely matchup of the playoffs.  The Raptors attempted to tank, trading Rudy Gay and his ridiculous contract in December to the hapless Kings.  Instead of producing the desired effect of increasing the team's chances of winning the NBA draft lottery, the team took off.  The Raptors have gone 41-21 since Rudy Gay trade (not including the one game after they had traded Gay but before they had received the pieces for whom they traded), a 54 win pace.   Kyle Lowry is one of the better point guards in the league; he is a tough defender and a dogged leader.  Without Rudy Gay taking all of his patented contested long jumpers, DeRozan has thrived, as have Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas.

All that being said about the remarkable ascent of Toronto this year, I still believe Brooklyn will handle them.  The Nets play a quirky brand of basketball and have gone through a rollercoaster ride this year. The team started horribly, but in calendar year 2014 the Nets caught fire and finished on a 34-19 run (including two seemingly intentional losses at the end of the year to avoid the rugged Bulls in the first round).  There are several characteristics that make the Nets tough: they have a tremendous amount of playoff experience (Garnett, Pierce, Kirilenko, Johnson, Williams), big wings who can defend the post (Johnson, Kirilenko, Pierce, and to some extent Williams), they have shooting, depth, mobile bigs, and leadership.  They also swept the Heat this year (4-0), and went 18-12 against the Western Conference (tied with Indiana for 2nd best record in the East against the Western Conference after Miami).

The Heat sweep and the fact that the Nets had a (shockingly) better win percentage against the West than the (far inferior) East tells me that the Nets were mostly coasting during the regular season (they also were battling injuries to Williams, Garnett, and Kirilenko, to say nothing of Brook Lopez's season-ending injury).   The Nets can trot out Garnett, (rising rookie) Mason Plumlee, Pierce, Johnson, and Deron Williams in crunch time, or forsake Garnett entirely, play Plumlee at the 5 and insert Kirilenko or Marcus Thornton for speed and defense, Blatche for size and rebounding, or Teletovic if they want someone to shoot every time he touches the ball (he is pretty much the Bosnian John Salmons).  Because their wings rebound well, the lack of a traditional center does not hurt the Nets tremendously.    Nets in 6.  


WASHINGTON WIZARDS vs CHICAGO BULLS

from the mean streets of Paris.

I used to think DJ Augustin was a total scrub.  So did Toronto, because previous to trading him to Chicago in December, the Raptors barely used the former Texas Longhorn.  However, since coming to the Bulls, Augustin has found the fountain of youth or TRT or something else, and has been the team's best perimeter scorer.  With Augustin on the roster, the Bulls have gone 40-22 (they were 8-12 before he was picked up).

What does DJ Augustin's resurgence (or "surgence"--I know it isn't a word, but it more accurately captures Augustin's pro career) mean for the Wiz kids?  Nothing.  The Wizards should win this series.  I know, Joakim Noah screams a lot and plays good defense, but the Wizards have a much more talented roster.

YES WE CAN!

John Wall is a genuine star; Bradley Beal shows more than occasional flashes of being a potential All-Star (years and years) down the line; Gortat has been one of the more consistent bigs in recent team history, averaging 13/10/1.5 blocks per game.  With healthy Nene *knocks on wood* and Undersized Trevor Booker™ flanking the big Pole, the Wizards have good enough bigs to match Noah and Boozer/Gibson.  On the perimeter, the Wizards should have the edge.  As well as Augustin has played, he is no John Wall.  Hinrich is the rare white guard who has stayed in the league as a defender rather than a shooter, but he has gotten older and has slipped on both ends of the floor, making him a below-average NBA starter.  Jimmy Butler is a classically rugged Tom Thibodeau defender who can't shoot but does everything else well.  I expect him to guard Wall for long stretches; it will be up to the Wizards to figure out how to exploit Hinrich or Augustin on Beal.

X Factor:  In this series there are several.  Drew Gooden is a legitimate lunatic; he reminds me of a slightly more coordinated, far more malicious version of JaVale McGee (note: click the JaVale link, you will DIE laughing).  If there is a fight in this series, he will be involved.  I could picture (and hope to see) Gooden and Boozer throw down.

The other x factor in this series is the small forward position.  Mike Dunleavy Jr. has been playing well all year; he provides smarts, shooting, and spacing.  Without him, defenses can pack the paint against the Bulls without consequences.  On the other side, Trevor Ariza is a solid two-way player who can shoot and defend, although at times it seems like he has no interest in even playing basketball.  If Ariza can stay engaged offensively, and if the Wizards can get him on the move to take advantage of his footspeed edge over the aging Dunleavy, the Wizards should be fine.  Wizards in 6.  


SPURS vs MAVERICKS

heroin addict, or one of the greatest players of all-time?

The Mavericks don't deserve such a cruel fate.  I still maintain to this day that if Mark Cuban hadn't lost his mind (letting Tyson Chandler walk away), the Mavericks would have won the title the following year as well.  After an awful season in 2012-2013 in which Dirk was hurt and the majority of the roster was signed to one-year deals or had their contracts expiring, the Mavericks returned to basketball relevance this season.  Led by a healthy Nowitzki, the addition of Monta Ellis, the steady ball-handling and shooting of Jose Calderon, and a strong bench led by Vince Carter and the criminally underrated Brandan Wright (who averaged 9 points per game in less than 19 minutes a night, while shooting an absurd 68% from the field), the Mavericks are not going to be an easy out.  I think there is a case to be made that in the Eastern Conference, the Mavericks would be the favorite to play Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals.

how can you not cheer for these guys?

Sadly, however, the Mavericks don't play in the Eastern Conference.  Instead they play an absoutely murderous buzzsaw called the Spurs.  San Antonio is significantly better this year than last, which makes them the favorite to win the title.  Ginobili is much healthier than last year, which means his first step is back, which means he is absolutely undefendable on the pick and roll (and don't get me started on how good the Spurs would be if they had a big who could finish consistently in traffic, instead of Tiago Splitter and his 4 inch vertical leap).  Kawhi Leonard has grown more confident, Duncan and Parker are healthy, Diaw is still an absolutely talented enigma, and their bench (Manu aside) has taken a huge step forward.  Adding Marco Bellinelli to take Gary Neal's spot was a good move, as the Italian has a better handle and is a better passer.  More importantly however has been the development of Patty Mills, who has gone from seldom-used Australian scrub to microwave.  Mills is averaging more than 10 points per game, shooting 3s at almost 43%, and has produced eight 20 point games.

As much as I would like to get to enjoy as many Dirk one-legged jumpers as I can, this series will be short.  Spurs in 5.


THUNDER vs GRIZZLIES

Durant-stopper?

The Thunder are not as balanced as they were when they had James Harden, but Kevin Durant is so good at basketball that it really doesn't seem to matter.  If Ibaka and Westbrook can stay healthy, the Thunder should be favored to come out of the Western Conference.  Durant is the best offensive player alive, bar none, period.  He is 6'10, has a good handle, can shoot from anywhere, and has solid athleticism.  There is nobody who can guard him, including LeBron.  The question is, what happens if the Grizzlies are able to deny him the ball and make other people beat them?

Memphis was plagued by injuries this year, most notably to Marc Gasol, whose absence in 23 games caused the Grizzlies to obtain such a low playoff seeding (the team was 10-13 without Gasol, 43% winning percentage, and 40-19 with him, 68% winning percentage, which extrapolated over a full season would be a record of 56-26, good for 4th place in the Western Conference or tied for first in the Eastern Conference).  Between Gasol and Zach Randolph, Memphis has a front line that should not only be able to neutralize Ibaka's freakish athleticism by wearing him out, causing him to pick up fouls, etc., but also able to control the tempo of the game.  Memphis will not turn the ball over often with Gasol, Randolph, and Conley getting the lion's share of the touches.  Worse yet for Oklahoma, Gasol and Randolph's bulk will dictate that Scott Brooks plays Kendrick Perkins big minutes, which is always a terrible idea.

Last year when Memphis was felled by the Spurs, the team's glaring weakness was outside shooting.  The team brought in Mike Miller and Courtney Lee to address this paucity of outside shooting.  These moves have helped the team's three-point shooting percentage go up a tad, but the threat of Miller alone provides valuable space on the floor for Conley to operate.

I expect this series to be physical, emotional, and competitive.  Ibaka is known for his proclivities towards starting fights, and guys like Zach Randolph and Tony Allen certainly aren't going to back away.  Thunder in 7.  


CLIPPERS VS WARRIORS

strong calf muscles.

This is probably the marquee matchup of the first round of the playoffs.  Sadly, with Andrew Bogut's broken rib depriving Golden State of their best rim-protector, screener, offensive rebounder, etc., the Warriors no longer can win this series.  The basketball gods are cruel; this late-season injury to Bogut reminds me of when Ginobili broke his arm in the last game of the regular season a few years back.  I guess we won't be seeing another Bogut vs DeAndre Jordan skirmish.   What we will see instead is Steph Curry hitting preposterous 3s with ease, Blake Griffin dunking up a storm, Chris Paul getting wherever he wants to on the floor, the consistent offensive excellence of David Lee, Redick and Jamal Crawford stretching Golden State's already porous defense, Klay Thompson going back and forth between unguardable and mediocre, and Matt Barnes try to start at least two fights.   

X Factor:  Coming out of high school, Harrison Barnes was considered the best player of his class.  He has great size, athleticism, and has shown post up game and the ability to guard shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards.  Assuming that Barnes is the Warriors' first choice to replace Bogut's minutes, the Warriors' crunch time lineup will be: Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Barnes, and Lee.  All five can shoot, drive, and finish around the rim.  Rebounding will have to be a team effort; David Lee is a very good defensive rebounder but he gives up a lot of size to DeAndre Jordan.  The Warriors will have to make the Clippers pay by stretching the floor, hitting shots, and taking advantage of Jordan trying to guard a perimeter player.  In a close game, the Clippers will have to take Jordan out anyway because he is such a liability at the foul line (43%).   Clippers in 6.  

BLAZERS vs ROCKETS

dominant big man?

James Harden has become the best offensive shooting guard in the NBA; he is a master of tricking dumbass referees into awarding him foul shots for running into his defender and flopping about like a wounded duck.  More than that, Harden is a prodigious offensive talent; he is a good outside shooter, has a great handle, can finish with either hand, knows how to absorb contact, and has ice in his veins (to say nothing of his budding mastery of the Ginobili step).  Dwight Howard seems to be rounding into something resembling his form when he was on Orlando, while Chandler Parsons has shown a versatile offensive attack.  Houston's problem is that their perimeter defense is atrocious.  Parsons is not a good defensive player, Harden is a terrible defensive player, and if Patrick Beverley isn't anywhere near 100%, the Blazers will have a field day.

Luckily for the Rockets, the Blazers are a defensive sieve as well.  Both teams allow more than 102 points per game; don't expect games in this series to end in the 80s or 70s.    The Blazers have a balanced attack; Damian Lillard is one of the more well-rounded point guards in the league, combining excellent athleticism with a good outside shot, the clutch gene, and solid playmaking instincts.  LaMarcus Aldridge is a good player, although his stats are overinflated because he shoots so much.  Among power forwards alone, Aldridge ranks a terrible 24th in points per shot, at only 1.13 points per attempt.  Wesley Matthews could be a difference maker; he has the size and strength to body up on Harden, and has demonstrated a solid three-point stroke of his own to make James work on the other end (or, more likely, to make James watch Matthews shoot wide open threes and layups in lieu of playing defense).

Not much separates these two teams; I believe Houston will win in the end though, if for no other reason than the Rockets have the two biggest stars on the court, and will likely get the crucial calls when it matters.  Rockets in 6.


Listed below are the playoff teams, their regular season records and win percentage, their conference record and win percentage, and their out-of-conference record and winning percentage, followed by what their winning percentage would be if half the games were against teams in the other conference (41 games) instead of 30 games, along with their corresponding record under such circumstances:

Eastern Conference playoff teams:

Indiana 56-26 .683 38-14 (.73) 18-12 (.60)  real winning percentage (RWP) would be .665, record would 55-27

Miami  54-28 .659 34-18 (.65) 20-10 (.66)   RWP = .655, record would be 54-28

Toronto  48-34  .585    32-20 (.61) 16-14 (.53)  RWP = .57, 47-35

Chicago  48-34  .585    35-17 (.67)  13-17 (.43)    RWP = .55, 45-37

Washington  44-38 .537  33-19 (.63)   11-19 (.36)  RWP = .51, 42-40

Brooklyn  44-38 .537 26-26 (.50) 18-12 (.60)   RWP = .55, 45-37

Charlotte 43-39 .524  30-22 (.57)   13-17 (.43)  RWP = .5, 41-41

Atlanta  38-44 .463 28-24 (.53)  10-20 (.33)  RWP = .43, 35-47

Eastern Conference non-playoff teams:

New York: 37-45 .451   26-26 (.50)  11-19 (.36)     RWP = .43     35-47
Cleveland: 33-49 .402   21-31  (.40) 12-18 (.4)       RWP = .40     33-49
Detroit:      29-53 .354   23-29 (.44)   6-24 (.2)        RWP = .33     27-55
Boston:      25-57  .305   21-31 (.40)  4-26 (.13)      RWP = .265   22-60
Orlando:     23-59  .280   17-35 (.33) 6-24  (.2)       RWP= .265    22-60
Philadelphia: 19-63 .232  14-38 (.27) 5-25 (.17)     RWP = .22     18-64
Milwaukee:   15-67 .183   12-40 (.23) 3-27 (.1)      RWP = .165   14-68

Western Conference playoff teams:

San Antonio  62-20 .756   38-14 (.73)  24-6 (.80)  RWP = .765, 63-19

Oklahoma City  59-23 .720   36-16 (.69)   23-7  (.76)  RWP = .725, 60-22

Los Angeles Clippers  57-25 .695   36-16 (.69)   21-9 (.70) RWP = .695, 57-25

Houston   54-28 .659  31-21 (.59)    23-7 (.76)  RWP = .675, 55-27

Portland  54-28  .659    31-21 (.59)   23-7 (.76)  RWP = .675, 55-27

Golden State   51-31  .622    31-21 (.59)    20-10 (.66)  RWP = .625, 51-31

Memphis  50-32  .610    29-23 (.55)   21-9 (.7)  RWP = .625, 51-31

Dallas   49-33    .598   29-23 (.55)    20-10 (.66)  RWP = .605, 50-32

Western Conference non-playoff teams:

Phoenix 48-34  .585   28-24  (.54) 20-10 (.66)              RWP = .6      49-33
Minnesota  40-42  .488   23-29 (.44) 17-13 (.57)          RWP = .505  41-41
Denver  36-46   .439  20-32 (.38)  16-14 (.53)              RWP = .455  37-45
New Orleans  34-48 .415   15-37 (.29)  19-11 (.63)      RWP = .46    38-44
Sacramento  28-54 .341  15-37 (.29) 13-17 (.43)          RWP = .36    30-52
Lakers   27-55  .329   15-37 (.29)   12-18 (.4)               RWP = .35    29-53
Utah  25-57 .305  13-39 (.25) 12-18 (.4)                       RWP = .33    27-55