NBA PLAYOFF SPOILERS

Friends,

The best time of the year is upon us: finally, the NBA takes center stage.  No helmets, no players who only play offense or defense (unlike the NFL and Carmelo Anthony), no excessive ball scratching by men who have a 90% chance of not even breaking into a sweat during a game, and no skating.  Just 10 men fighting over every square inch of a basketball court, with the lion's share of the fighting occurring in the half court.  Half court playoff basketball is like a beautifully choreographed indoor rugby scrum.  Instead of regular season basketball (in which shooters run off screens freely without getting chipped by multiple defenders, in which layups are sometimes conceded, in which hard fouls are rare), playoff basketball basically constitutes a war of attrition.  

There are several requirements for playoff success: discipline (sorry Wizards), someone who can consistently create open shots for his teammates through drawing double-teams or pick and roll acumen (sorry Bulls, sorry Atlanta), experience (sorry Portland, sorry Toronto, sorry Charlotte), a commitment to defense (sorry Golden State--without Bogut you have no shot; sorry Houston, James Harden is on your team, sorry Dallas, you have 1 above average defender in your starting lineup).  This leaves us with the Spurs, Heat, Thunder, Pacers, Grizzlies, Nets, and Clippers as legitimate title contenders.

Here are the round 1 breakdowns, with Eastern Conference match-ups followed by Western Conference match-ups:


INDIANA vs ATLANTA

that's elevation, homes.

The Pacers' main goal this season was to get home-court advantage, so that game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals will be played in Indiana rather than Miami.  So far so good.
The Pacers are hardly even interested in playing teams other than Miami, and I doubt this wounded Atlanta team will provide much of a hurdle.

This series will be a sweep or last five games.  As poorly as the Pacers have played the last few months, they are still a far better team than the Hawks (although the teams did split in the regular season).  Atlanta, which once again has had to deal with a season-ending torn pec injury to Al Horford (the team's best player), has nothing for Indy.  Paul Millsap has shown that he is a borderline All-Star, but the team has no elite perimeter players, and Paul George is perhaps better equipped than any other wing defender in the league to chase Kyle Korver around and prevent the sharpshooter from getting open looks.

X Factor:  The Pacers have subpar point guard play and have no clue how to actually get the ball to Roy Hibbert in the deep post.  Part of that is due to poor play design, partly due to poor decision-making, and partly due to Hibbert's inability to get low and create the torque required to move his man backward enough to catch the ball on the low block.  If the Hawks come out and shock Indy in game 1, Hibbert may go off the hinges and criticize his teammates again, which could lead to the whole squad sniping at each other and a shocking first round upset.  The moral of the story is that the Pacers need to get Hibbert the ball near the basket early and often.   Pacers in 5.  


MIAMI vs CHARLOTTE

#differencemaker

I had the pleasure of seeing the mighty Bobcats beat my beloved Wizards in person several weeks ago and have a number of takeaways from that tour de force.

1. Al Jefferson is really good in the low post (although he doesn't get to the line enough) and Miami has nobody heavy enough to guard him, except for Greg Oden's carcass.
2. I don't know if it was because the Wizards are just abysmal defensively, but Gary Neal can flat out play.  He made Bradley Beal look like a high school JV player.
3. Kemba Walker is one of the more underrated players in the league; he has silly quickness and makes great decisions.  Against the Wizards, it seemed that when Kemba was on the floor, Charlotte always got an open shot.  
4. Josh McRoberts can stretch the floor and is one of the best passing bigs in the league.  
5. Kidd-Gilchrest may be the best perimeter defender in the league, but god is he awful offensively.  

Miami swept the season series, including a one-point win and an overtime win.  In the fourth and final meeting between the two teams this year, Miami won comfortably, but it took LeBron scoring 61 to make that happen.  The Heat this year are not what they were the last two years; Mike Miller and his clutch shooting are gone, Battier has regressed considerably, Wade is banged up (missed 28 games-which may be a blessing in disguise), Birdman is banged up, Joel Anthony is gone, and there has not been any noticeable improvement from any other Heat players.  That being said, they still have LeBron.  Heat in 5.  


NETS vs RAPTORS

nice and calm.

Easily the most unlikely matchup of the playoffs.  The Raptors attempted to tank, trading Rudy Gay and his ridiculous contract in December to the hapless Kings.  Instead of producing the desired effect of increasing the team's chances of winning the NBA draft lottery, the team took off.  The Raptors have gone 41-21 since Rudy Gay trade (not including the one game after they had traded Gay but before they had received the pieces for whom they traded), a 54 win pace.   Kyle Lowry is one of the better point guards in the league; he is a tough defender and a dogged leader.  Without Rudy Gay taking all of his patented contested long jumpers, DeRozan has thrived, as have Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas.

All that being said about the remarkable ascent of Toronto this year, I still believe Brooklyn will handle them.  The Nets play a quirky brand of basketball and have gone through a rollercoaster ride this year. The team started horribly, but in calendar year 2014 the Nets caught fire and finished on a 34-19 run (including two seemingly intentional losses at the end of the year to avoid the rugged Bulls in the first round).  There are several characteristics that make the Nets tough: they have a tremendous amount of playoff experience (Garnett, Pierce, Kirilenko, Johnson, Williams), big wings who can defend the post (Johnson, Kirilenko, Pierce, and to some extent Williams), they have shooting, depth, mobile bigs, and leadership.  They also swept the Heat this year (4-0), and went 18-12 against the Western Conference (tied with Indiana for 2nd best record in the East against the Western Conference after Miami).

The Heat sweep and the fact that the Nets had a (shockingly) better win percentage against the West than the (far inferior) East tells me that the Nets were mostly coasting during the regular season (they also were battling injuries to Williams, Garnett, and Kirilenko, to say nothing of Brook Lopez's season-ending injury).   The Nets can trot out Garnett, (rising rookie) Mason Plumlee, Pierce, Johnson, and Deron Williams in crunch time, or forsake Garnett entirely, play Plumlee at the 5 and insert Kirilenko or Marcus Thornton for speed and defense, Blatche for size and rebounding, or Teletovic if they want someone to shoot every time he touches the ball (he is pretty much the Bosnian John Salmons).  Because their wings rebound well, the lack of a traditional center does not hurt the Nets tremendously.    Nets in 6.  


WASHINGTON WIZARDS vs CHICAGO BULLS

from the mean streets of Paris.

I used to think DJ Augustin was a total scrub.  So did Toronto, because previous to trading him to Chicago in December, the Raptors barely used the former Texas Longhorn.  However, since coming to the Bulls, Augustin has found the fountain of youth or TRT or something else, and has been the team's best perimeter scorer.  With Augustin on the roster, the Bulls have gone 40-22 (they were 8-12 before he was picked up).

What does DJ Augustin's resurgence (or "surgence"--I know it isn't a word, but it more accurately captures Augustin's pro career) mean for the Wiz kids?  Nothing.  The Wizards should win this series.  I know, Joakim Noah screams a lot and plays good defense, but the Wizards have a much more talented roster.

YES WE CAN!

John Wall is a genuine star; Bradley Beal shows more than occasional flashes of being a potential All-Star (years and years) down the line; Gortat has been one of the more consistent bigs in recent team history, averaging 13/10/1.5 blocks per game.  With healthy Nene *knocks on wood* and Undersized Trevor Booker™ flanking the big Pole, the Wizards have good enough bigs to match Noah and Boozer/Gibson.  On the perimeter, the Wizards should have the edge.  As well as Augustin has played, he is no John Wall.  Hinrich is the rare white guard who has stayed in the league as a defender rather than a shooter, but he has gotten older and has slipped on both ends of the floor, making him a below-average NBA starter.  Jimmy Butler is a classically rugged Tom Thibodeau defender who can't shoot but does everything else well.  I expect him to guard Wall for long stretches; it will be up to the Wizards to figure out how to exploit Hinrich or Augustin on Beal.

X Factor:  In this series there are several.  Drew Gooden is a legitimate lunatic; he reminds me of a slightly more coordinated, far more malicious version of JaVale McGee (note: click the JaVale link, you will DIE laughing).  If there is a fight in this series, he will be involved.  I could picture (and hope to see) Gooden and Boozer throw down.

The other x factor in this series is the small forward position.  Mike Dunleavy Jr. has been playing well all year; he provides smarts, shooting, and spacing.  Without him, defenses can pack the paint against the Bulls without consequences.  On the other side, Trevor Ariza is a solid two-way player who can shoot and defend, although at times it seems like he has no interest in even playing basketball.  If Ariza can stay engaged offensively, and if the Wizards can get him on the move to take advantage of his footspeed edge over the aging Dunleavy, the Wizards should be fine.  Wizards in 6.  


SPURS vs MAVERICKS

heroin addict, or one of the greatest players of all-time?

The Mavericks don't deserve such a cruel fate.  I still maintain to this day that if Mark Cuban hadn't lost his mind (letting Tyson Chandler walk away), the Mavericks would have won the title the following year as well.  After an awful season in 2012-2013 in which Dirk was hurt and the majority of the roster was signed to one-year deals or had their contracts expiring, the Mavericks returned to basketball relevance this season.  Led by a healthy Nowitzki, the addition of Monta Ellis, the steady ball-handling and shooting of Jose Calderon, and a strong bench led by Vince Carter and the criminally underrated Brandan Wright (who averaged 9 points per game in less than 19 minutes a night, while shooting an absurd 68% from the field), the Mavericks are not going to be an easy out.  I think there is a case to be made that in the Eastern Conference, the Mavericks would be the favorite to play Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals.

how can you not cheer for these guys?

Sadly, however, the Mavericks don't play in the Eastern Conference.  Instead they play an absoutely murderous buzzsaw called the Spurs.  San Antonio is significantly better this year than last, which makes them the favorite to win the title.  Ginobili is much healthier than last year, which means his first step is back, which means he is absolutely undefendable on the pick and roll (and don't get me started on how good the Spurs would be if they had a big who could finish consistently in traffic, instead of Tiago Splitter and his 4 inch vertical leap).  Kawhi Leonard has grown more confident, Duncan and Parker are healthy, Diaw is still an absolutely talented enigma, and their bench (Manu aside) has taken a huge step forward.  Adding Marco Bellinelli to take Gary Neal's spot was a good move, as the Italian has a better handle and is a better passer.  More importantly however has been the development of Patty Mills, who has gone from seldom-used Australian scrub to microwave.  Mills is averaging more than 10 points per game, shooting 3s at almost 43%, and has produced eight 20 point games.

As much as I would like to get to enjoy as many Dirk one-legged jumpers as I can, this series will be short.  Spurs in 5.


THUNDER vs GRIZZLIES

Durant-stopper?

The Thunder are not as balanced as they were when they had James Harden, but Kevin Durant is so good at basketball that it really doesn't seem to matter.  If Ibaka and Westbrook can stay healthy, the Thunder should be favored to come out of the Western Conference.  Durant is the best offensive player alive, bar none, period.  He is 6'10, has a good handle, can shoot from anywhere, and has solid athleticism.  There is nobody who can guard him, including LeBron.  The question is, what happens if the Grizzlies are able to deny him the ball and make other people beat them?

Memphis was plagued by injuries this year, most notably to Marc Gasol, whose absence in 23 games caused the Grizzlies to obtain such a low playoff seeding (the team was 10-13 without Gasol, 43% winning percentage, and 40-19 with him, 68% winning percentage, which extrapolated over a full season would be a record of 56-26, good for 4th place in the Western Conference or tied for first in the Eastern Conference).  Between Gasol and Zach Randolph, Memphis has a front line that should not only be able to neutralize Ibaka's freakish athleticism by wearing him out, causing him to pick up fouls, etc., but also able to control the tempo of the game.  Memphis will not turn the ball over often with Gasol, Randolph, and Conley getting the lion's share of the touches.  Worse yet for Oklahoma, Gasol and Randolph's bulk will dictate that Scott Brooks plays Kendrick Perkins big minutes, which is always a terrible idea.

Last year when Memphis was felled by the Spurs, the team's glaring weakness was outside shooting.  The team brought in Mike Miller and Courtney Lee to address this paucity of outside shooting.  These moves have helped the team's three-point shooting percentage go up a tad, but the threat of Miller alone provides valuable space on the floor for Conley to operate.

I expect this series to be physical, emotional, and competitive.  Ibaka is known for his proclivities towards starting fights, and guys like Zach Randolph and Tony Allen certainly aren't going to back away.  Thunder in 7.  


CLIPPERS VS WARRIORS

strong calf muscles.

This is probably the marquee matchup of the first round of the playoffs.  Sadly, with Andrew Bogut's broken rib depriving Golden State of their best rim-protector, screener, offensive rebounder, etc., the Warriors no longer can win this series.  The basketball gods are cruel; this late-season injury to Bogut reminds me of when Ginobili broke his arm in the last game of the regular season a few years back.  I guess we won't be seeing another Bogut vs DeAndre Jordan skirmish.   What we will see instead is Steph Curry hitting preposterous 3s with ease, Blake Griffin dunking up a storm, Chris Paul getting wherever he wants to on the floor, the consistent offensive excellence of David Lee, Redick and Jamal Crawford stretching Golden State's already porous defense, Klay Thompson going back and forth between unguardable and mediocre, and Matt Barnes try to start at least two fights.   

X Factor:  Coming out of high school, Harrison Barnes was considered the best player of his class.  He has great size, athleticism, and has shown post up game and the ability to guard shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards.  Assuming that Barnes is the Warriors' first choice to replace Bogut's minutes, the Warriors' crunch time lineup will be: Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Barnes, and Lee.  All five can shoot, drive, and finish around the rim.  Rebounding will have to be a team effort; David Lee is a very good defensive rebounder but he gives up a lot of size to DeAndre Jordan.  The Warriors will have to make the Clippers pay by stretching the floor, hitting shots, and taking advantage of Jordan trying to guard a perimeter player.  In a close game, the Clippers will have to take Jordan out anyway because he is such a liability at the foul line (43%).   Clippers in 6.  

BLAZERS vs ROCKETS

dominant big man?

James Harden has become the best offensive shooting guard in the NBA; he is a master of tricking dumbass referees into awarding him foul shots for running into his defender and flopping about like a wounded duck.  More than that, Harden is a prodigious offensive talent; he is a good outside shooter, has a great handle, can finish with either hand, knows how to absorb contact, and has ice in his veins (to say nothing of his budding mastery of the Ginobili step).  Dwight Howard seems to be rounding into something resembling his form when he was on Orlando, while Chandler Parsons has shown a versatile offensive attack.  Houston's problem is that their perimeter defense is atrocious.  Parsons is not a good defensive player, Harden is a terrible defensive player, and if Patrick Beverley isn't anywhere near 100%, the Blazers will have a field day.

Luckily for the Rockets, the Blazers are a defensive sieve as well.  Both teams allow more than 102 points per game; don't expect games in this series to end in the 80s or 70s.    The Blazers have a balanced attack; Damian Lillard is one of the more well-rounded point guards in the league, combining excellent athleticism with a good outside shot, the clutch gene, and solid playmaking instincts.  LaMarcus Aldridge is a good player, although his stats are overinflated because he shoots so much.  Among power forwards alone, Aldridge ranks a terrible 24th in points per shot, at only 1.13 points per attempt.  Wesley Matthews could be a difference maker; he has the size and strength to body up on Harden, and has demonstrated a solid three-point stroke of his own to make James work on the other end (or, more likely, to make James watch Matthews shoot wide open threes and layups in lieu of playing defense).

Not much separates these two teams; I believe Houston will win in the end though, if for no other reason than the Rockets have the two biggest stars on the court, and will likely get the crucial calls when it matters.  Rockets in 6.


Listed below are the playoff teams, their regular season records and win percentage, their conference record and win percentage, and their out-of-conference record and winning percentage, followed by what their winning percentage would be if half the games were against teams in the other conference (41 games) instead of 30 games, along with their corresponding record under such circumstances:

Eastern Conference playoff teams:

Indiana 56-26 .683 38-14 (.73) 18-12 (.60)  real winning percentage (RWP) would be .665, record would 55-27

Miami  54-28 .659 34-18 (.65) 20-10 (.66)   RWP = .655, record would be 54-28

Toronto  48-34  .585    32-20 (.61) 16-14 (.53)  RWP = .57, 47-35

Chicago  48-34  .585    35-17 (.67)  13-17 (.43)    RWP = .55, 45-37

Washington  44-38 .537  33-19 (.63)   11-19 (.36)  RWP = .51, 42-40

Brooklyn  44-38 .537 26-26 (.50) 18-12 (.60)   RWP = .55, 45-37

Charlotte 43-39 .524  30-22 (.57)   13-17 (.43)  RWP = .5, 41-41

Atlanta  38-44 .463 28-24 (.53)  10-20 (.33)  RWP = .43, 35-47

Eastern Conference non-playoff teams:

New York: 37-45 .451   26-26 (.50)  11-19 (.36)     RWP = .43     35-47
Cleveland: 33-49 .402   21-31  (.40) 12-18 (.4)       RWP = .40     33-49
Detroit:      29-53 .354   23-29 (.44)   6-24 (.2)        RWP = .33     27-55
Boston:      25-57  .305   21-31 (.40)  4-26 (.13)      RWP = .265   22-60
Orlando:     23-59  .280   17-35 (.33) 6-24  (.2)       RWP= .265    22-60
Philadelphia: 19-63 .232  14-38 (.27) 5-25 (.17)     RWP = .22     18-64
Milwaukee:   15-67 .183   12-40 (.23) 3-27 (.1)      RWP = .165   14-68

Western Conference playoff teams:

San Antonio  62-20 .756   38-14 (.73)  24-6 (.80)  RWP = .765, 63-19

Oklahoma City  59-23 .720   36-16 (.69)   23-7  (.76)  RWP = .725, 60-22

Los Angeles Clippers  57-25 .695   36-16 (.69)   21-9 (.70) RWP = .695, 57-25

Houston   54-28 .659  31-21 (.59)    23-7 (.76)  RWP = .675, 55-27

Portland  54-28  .659    31-21 (.59)   23-7 (.76)  RWP = .675, 55-27

Golden State   51-31  .622    31-21 (.59)    20-10 (.66)  RWP = .625, 51-31

Memphis  50-32  .610    29-23 (.55)   21-9 (.7)  RWP = .625, 51-31

Dallas   49-33    .598   29-23 (.55)    20-10 (.66)  RWP = .605, 50-32

Western Conference non-playoff teams:

Phoenix 48-34  .585   28-24  (.54) 20-10 (.66)              RWP = .6      49-33
Minnesota  40-42  .488   23-29 (.44) 17-13 (.57)          RWP = .505  41-41
Denver  36-46   .439  20-32 (.38)  16-14 (.53)              RWP = .455  37-45
New Orleans  34-48 .415   15-37 (.29)  19-11 (.63)      RWP = .46    38-44
Sacramento  28-54 .341  15-37 (.29) 13-17 (.43)          RWP = .36    30-52
Lakers   27-55  .329   15-37 (.29)   12-18 (.4)               RWP = .35    29-53
Utah  25-57 .305  13-39 (.25) 12-18 (.4)                       RWP = .33    27-55