History as a Guide: Does Defense Really Win Championships?

Talk to the hand. 

Year	Champion	points        allowed	point       differential	points      allowed    rank
2000-2001	Lakers	97.2	3.4	23
2001-2002	Lakers	94.1	7.1	9
2002-2003	Spurs	90.4	5.4	3
2003-2004	Pistons	84.3	5.8	1
2004-2005	Spurs	88.4	7.8	1
2005-2006	Heat	96	3.9	13
2006-2007	Spurs	90.1	8.4	1
2007-2008	Celtics	90.3	10.2	2
2008-2009	Lakers	99.3	7.7	13
2009-2010	Lakers	97	4.8	9
2010-2011	Mavs	96	4.2	10
2011-2012	Heat	92.5	6	4
2012-2013	Heat	95	7.9	5
2013-2014	Spurs	97.6	7.7	6

To attempt to ascertain who will win the NBA title this year, I researched the defensive stats of every NBA champion this millennium.  From this research a few lessons stand out.  Firstly, defense usually wins championships.  Secondly, if teams are blessed with historically great players in their primes, they can overcome lackluster regular season defense (I’m looking specifically at the 2000-2001 Lakers team, which featured Shaq at his absolute apex and Kobe entering his prime, as well as the 2008-2009 Lakers, which featured Pau Gasol in his prime and Kobe at the tail end of his prime, as well as the 2005-2006 Heat, with Dwayne Wade at his world-destroying best and Shaq still the most dominant big man in the league). 

Even of those three teams mentioned, two were in the upper half of the league in terms of least points per game allowed.  The 2000-2001 Lakers were a true anomaly.  Despite their below-average regular season defense, they went 15-1 in the playoffs; having two of the three best players in a generation (Duncan being the other member of the triumvirate) renders statistical analysis null.  However this season, none of the playoff contenders have two of the three best players of the current generation (the Thunder arguably would, but Durant is out).

Thus, we can ignore the Lakers mind-boggling success and concentrate on the statistical precedents that teams composed of mere mortals demonstrate. 

Point Differential:

In this millennium, no team has won a NBA title with a regular season point differential of less than 3.4.  The point differential average of the 14 aforementioned champions is 6.45.  Here are the stats of the current season’s contenders.  I have crossed out every team with a point differential less than 3.4, except Houston and its 3.3 margin of victory (explanation after the stats):

Team	points allowed	point differential	points    allowed   rank
GSW	99.3	10.4	14
HOU	100.4	3.3	17
MEM	95.4	3	2
POR	97.9	4.9	10
LAC	100.3	6.5	16
SAS	96.9	6	3
DAL	101.7	2.9	23
ATL	97.3	5.4	7
CLE	98.3	5.1	12
CHI	98.2	2.6	11
TOR	101.5	2.9	22

Thus we can eliminate Memphis, Dallas, Chicago, and Toronto, leaving us with Golden State, Portland, LAC, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland as legitimate title contenders.  I have chosen not to eliminate Houston because as hot as the Rockets have been lately, they may surpass that margin of victory by the end of the season, especially with the recent return of Dwight Howard.

Points Allowed:

None of the champions this millennium have allowed more than 99.3 points per game.  The average among those 14 championship teams is 93.4 points allowed per game.  The Warriors, clearly this year’s best team (as long as they aren’t playing the Spurs, who have handled them twice), are averaging 99.3 points per game allowed, which ties the 2008-2009 Lakers team, which has the distinction of allowing the most points of any champion in the 2000s. 

Does this mean that Golden State plays porous defense that will be exposed in the playoffs?  Surprisingly no.  Thanks to advanced stats, we can see that the Warriors actually allow the fewest points allowed per possession in the Association.  Color me surprised. 

Consulting the history of advanced stats, a clear pattern emerges: points per possession regular season defense is highly correlated with playoff success.  No team since 2002-2003 (as far back as ESPN’s database goes) has won a championship without being a top-10 defensive team in terms of points per possession, with the exception of the 2005-2006 Miami Heat.  That is 11 out of 12, or 92%.  Thus, I find this measure to be highly reliable.  In that vein, let’s look at the points per possession ranks of our contenders this season:

Team	points per possession (allowed) rank
GSW	1
HOU	7
MEM	5
POR	8
LAC	16
SAS	2
DAL	18
ATL	8
CLE	19
CHI	12
TOR	25

This data is quite helpful.  We had already eliminated Toronto, Memphis, Chicago, and Dallas because of their inadequate (in a historical sense) margin of victory figures.  We can add to that list the Clippers, the Bulls, and the Cavaliers (which is surprising, given how well the team has played the second half of the season). 

Thus we are left with Golden State, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Portland.

Let’s evaluate those five teams, plus the Los Angeles Clippers, who have the second-best margin of victory in the NBA, the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA, and yet still find themselves eliminated using the statistical measures I have chosen:

Snakebitten: Portland Trailblazers

Goodbye title hopes :(

This team had it all; a dynamic point guard, a go-to post player, a dynamic bench with scoring, size, a heady backup point guard, and a newly acquired star in Aaron Affalo.  All of that came to a halt when Wes Matthews, the team’s heart and soul, went down for the year with a torn Achilles.  As good as Aldridge and Lillard are, they are not good enough to take this team to the promised land without the team’s third-best player.  Try again next year.

Not quite good enough: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers aren't lacking in athleticism. 

It is odd to say that a team with the best point guard of his generation, and the most athletically-dominant power forward since Shawn Kemp, is not good enough to win a title, but it is the truth.  Despite DeAndre Jordan and his 15 rebounds per game, despite Blake’s savage dunks and improved midrange game and underrated passing skills, this team will not win the NBA championship.  They are too reliant on JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes, the former two streaky shooters who don’t bring much to the defensive end, and the latter a hothead who seems to always manage to get a technical foul at the wrong time.  Spencer Hawes was brought to this team to give the Clippers a competent third big, but has been a massive flop.  As devastating as the Blake/CP3 pick and roll can be, this team has too many defensive lapses, has inconsistent wing play, and can’t trust DeAndre Jordan in the clutch because of his foul shooting.  All of that is not to say that the Clippers won’t do some serious damage in the playoffs; Blake Griffin has come back at the right time, and this team will give every team a dogfight.

The best in the Eastern Conference: Atlanta Hawks

Net.

Only the Bulls and Cavaliers can conceivably win more than a game or two in a seven-game series against this team in the Eastern Conference.  They play defense on a string, share the ball, play without ego, and have an elite combination of shooting, rebounding, spacing, and penetration.  Kyle Korver creates constant havoc on offense, and the chaos that surrounds his endless high speed caroms off of screens leaves defenses vulnerable to layups for the screener, or causes the defense to frantically chase, always a step behind Atlanta’s crisp ball movement.  The combination of Millsap and Horford is the best 4-5 combination in the NBA.  The only reticence I have about picking this team to win the championship is that there is not a single player on the team (with the possible exception of Al Horford) who has a shot at ever making the Hall of Fame.  Even the Pistons, considered as the last team to win a title without a true superstar, had a multi-time defensive player of the year, a Hall of Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace (whose potential went up in a cloud of smoke—literally), and a likely Hall of Famer in Chauncey Billups.  Nobody on the Hawks has the playoff experience to be trusted to get a basket in the last minute of a close Finals game.

The Beard and the Moron:  Houston Rockets

Championship intensity.

Dwight Howard, when healthy, is the most dominant big in the league.  He is 6’11, has the build of a professional wrestler, yet can jump like a shooting guard.  However at this point in his career, and with a myriad of knee injuries bearing down on him, there is nothing to suggest Dwight will ever be truly healthy again.  Thus, the Houston Rockets’ success falls squarely on the shoulders of one James Harden, a man who is better at getting fouled than anyone I can remember.  The most obvious comparison for Harden is Manu Ginobili (although he reminds me more of Gilbert Arenas than Manu on many days).  Both are lefties who utilize the Euro-step, can shoot, pass, get to the rim, and draw fouls.  Harden has shown himself to be a better regular season player than Manu however, or at least has gotten more opportunities to demonstrate his ability to carry a team than Manu has as part of a three-headed monster (if Harden had stayed in Oklahoma, who knows what his stats would look like). 

This ability to get fouled and make foul shots is even more important in the playoffs than the regular season, as the defensive intensity gets tightened and easy baskets are few and far between.  The downside for Harden is that many of the calls he gets in the regular season will not be called in the playoffs.   Harden has a tendency to flail and initiate contact with defenders.  For whatever reason, in the playoffs, the referees are disinclined to reward such behavior.  Harden walks a thin line between genius and ugliness with his game; if he starts throwing himself into defenders with the clear intent of merely drawing fouls, and does not get said calls, the Rockets will face challenging circumstances. 

This team managed to snag Josh Smith and Corey Brewer mid-season, both accomplished veterans who can play defense at a high-level.  This team has good depth in the frontcourt, but that all falls apart if Dwight Howard reinjures his knee.  Further complicating matters for the team is the loss of Patrick Beverley, the Rockets’ pugnacious point guard who spearheads the team’s defense.  Having an aging Jason Terry try to slow down the West’s killer crop of point guards is asking for disaster.  There are simply too many uncertainties here to pick this team to win it all.

The Kings of the Regular Season:  Golden State Warriors

Appearing in a city near you, "Chris Paul on Skates", hosted by Steph Curry. 

The Warriors’ gaudy 10.4 margin of victory average is the highest of any team this millennium.  They will have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and have the advantage of one of the loudest and most knowledgeable fan bases in the entire NBA.  The team fields a point guard in Stephen Curry whose shooting range is anywhere to half court, a two guard in Klay Thompson who has blossomed into a two-way star, a defensive menace in Draymond Green who also shoots 3s and gathers assists, and an ornery 300 pound Australian center in Andrew Bogut who is not afraid to get physical. 

Golden State also has one of the most embarrassing collections of riches on its bench of any team in the playoffs.  Andre Iguodala and David Lee, both former All-Stars, make limited contributions, as does Shaun Livingston.  The Warriors decimated the entire NBA this season; not only did they beat the bad teams, but also went 31-9 against teams with winning records (by far the best mark in the Association).  Despite all this, I don’t think they will win the NBA title.  This season has been too easy, and the team is still somewhat green in terms of playoff experience.  Of the Warriors’ 14 losses this season, 9 have been by double-digits.  Compare that to the Spurs, who have 26 losses, but only 7 by double-digits (and only 4 with the Big 3, including an overtime defeat).  When I see that statistic, it tells me that the Warriors don’t necessarily have a backup plan when the jumpers don’t fall.  In a seven-game series, each team gets to know the other team’s tendencies, and the referees swallow their whistles more often than in the regular season.  This encourages more physical defense, which does not work in Golden State’s favor against the Spurs, especially if San Antonio puts Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive player alive, on Steph Curry.  Also of concern to Warriors fans should be Andrew Bogut’s health.  He is overdue an injury, and without him patrolling the back line, the Warriors’ defense and rebounding lose their most important cog.  Draymond Green, for all his accolades, is 6’7 230, and cannot guard Tim Duncan.  If the Warriors have to use David Lee and Mo Speights at center against Duncan and Splitter, Golden State fans will not be pleased with the result. 

The Aging Champions:  San Antonio Spurs

I smell repeat.

There is a reason the Spurs beat the Warriors twice this season, which is the same reason they beat them in the playoffs : they are the better team.  As much depth as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As much shooting as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As good as the Warriors are at pick and roll, the Spurs are better.  The Spurs will see your Draymond Green and raise you Kawhi Leonard, who at this point is the team’s best player, as well as the best defensive player in the NBA.  No team adjusts more quickly to opposing systems than the Spurs.  Whether that means Danny Green, Ginobili, Patty Mills, or Leonard on Curry, whether that means playing Boris Diaw at the 5 to take opposing centers away from the rim, or playing two diminutive point guards at once, there is nothing the Spurs won’t do.   This is a team built for the playoffs, and a team that is rounding into form; they have won 7 in a row and 17 of 20. 

Manu Ginobili seems to be slowly returning to Ginobili-ness after a sprained ankle, and Kawhi Leonard seems to be both recovered from a hand injury which caused him to miss 18 games, and embracing his role as the new big man on campus.  Tony Parker is still a defensive sieve, but nobody can guard him.  Patty Mills is perhaps the fastest player in the league, and plays the kind of in-your-skin defense that throws even the best ball handlers for a loop, to say nothing of his three-point shooting.  Thiago Splitter turned into a legitimate big-time player in the Finals last season, and hasn’t looked back.  All the layups that he used to miss, he now seems to convert.  Danny Green remains one of the league’s best combinations of three-point shooting and lockdown defense.  Boris Diaw, when not eating, is an absolute enigma for opposing teams; he can guard three positions, he passes like a point guard, and can score in the post and outside.  The team rotates seamlessly, plays unselfishly, and oh yeah, has the greatest power forward of all-time to throw the ball to if the pick and roll doesn’t create any shots.  

Get ready for the playoffs!