NBA Playoffs,
First-Round Matchups, Part 1
Finally, the best time of year is upon us. No more meaningless games, no more loafing
defense, no more lags in intensity. The
playoffs are finally here, and today I break down the 4 series that begin on
Saturday.
Washington Wizards vs
Team from Canada
 |
| Strike a pose. |
For a large swath of this season, these two would-be
juggernauts jousted near the top of the Eastern Conference. Alas, neither squad was consistently good
enough to remain near the apex of the lesser conference, and find themselves playing
in the first round.
The Wizards have a
higher ceiling than the Raptors, and the addition of Paul Pierce means
they have a leader who has been through the playoffs, won a ring, and knows what
it takes to be a champion. The Raptors,
by contrast, possess no championship-level experience.
The stars on the two respective teams are their point
guards, the blazing fast John Wall and the mercurial Kyle Lowry. For the last few years Wall has always seemed
a step away, but this season he seemed to grasp what it takes to be great, and
made solid strides across the board. Wall
increased his assists per game, assist-to-turnover ratio, his rebounding
totals, and improved his field goal percentage (in large part due to shooting
less 3s). Lowry is a tough defender with
a better offensive game than he gets credit for, but he is not an explosive
one-on-one player, and he tends to shoot far more 3s per game than he should. In a series in which the teams are fairly
evenly matched, the difference between the two stars could prove to be
dispositive.
In the front court, the Wizards have better bigs, but Nene
is always a question mark. If he decides
to play hard, he can bully the Toronto bigs as he did to Joakim Noah last year,
when he annihilated the Defensive Player of the Year in Washington’s win
against Chicago. Jonas Valanciunus has
proven to be an effective and efficient scorer around the rim, but does not
possess the kind of dominating post game that requires defense-breaking double
teams. Amir Johnson’s badly sprained
ankle takes away Toronto’s depth, which will require the feisty but limited
Tyler Hansbrough to take on a bigger role.
At the shooting guard position, Toronto has an edge, as
DeRozan is a budding star, whereas Bradley Beal seemed to take a small step
backwards this year through his constant battle with injuries. Louis Williams, Toronto’s gifted sixth man,
has the kind of scoring ability to keep Toronto in games when their starters are
not playing well. At the small forward
spot, the Wizards should have the edge with the aforementioned Paul Pierce and
the improving Otto Porter, who have a clear advantage over Terrence
Ross.
Pick: Wizards in 6
Golden State Warriors
vs New Orleans Pelicans
 |
| Steve Kerr's nightmare. |
This is not a good matchup for the Warriors. They don’t have the best player on the floor,
they are facing a backcourt of big, strong guards who can body Stephen Curry
and Klay Thompson, and they have to contend with a team that both cleans up its
defensive backboards, and can space the floor.
Anthony Davis, if not already, will be the best player in
the league in the very near future. He
is an absolute menace at both ends of the court; he has become an exceptional
mid range shooter, and has the foot speed to blow past slower bigs who cover
him. Against smaller players, he can
score down low, and he is an excellent pick and roll player, as his rolls to
the hoop require constant attention due to his devastating finishing
ability. He is one of the best shot blockers and
rebounders in the league, and averaged a steal and a half per game, third most
among power forwards, trailing only the much shorter Draymond Green and Paul
Millsap.
Eric Gordon, once a star in the making whose career progress
was derailed by injuries, has stayed healthy for the most part this year. He has a beautiful jump shot, a strong off
the dribble game, and has the physical strength to guard much taller players. The triumvirate of Gordon, Jrue Holiday, and
Tyreke Evans has proven to be a handful for any team to stop.
Unfortunately for the Pelicans, they are facing a
historically great offensive team, which also has managed to play stout defense.
The Warriors allow the fewest points per
possession in the league, and lead the league in opponents’ field goal
percentage. Stephen Curry and Klay
Thompson form the best-shooting backcourt in the league, Andrew Bogut is a
heady defender who cleans the glass, intimidates shots, and reads the floor
well, and Draymond Green is a tough-as-nails defender who can seemingly guard 4
positions. The Warriors have great depth
as well, including former All-Stars David Lee (rarely used) and Andre Iguodala
(who serves as the team’s de facto sixth man).
The big question for Golden State is what will happen in a
half court game; they are the rightful favorites to win the title, but if Bogut
gets in foul trouble or gets injured, their odds of winning decrease
dramatically. One of the reasons Bogut
has stayed healthy and his fouling propensity hasn’t hurt the squad is that in
an open, running game, there are less opportunities for fouling, and less
banging. In a half court game in which
the Warriors aren’t up by 25 at the end of the third quarter, Bogut will have
to play more minutes, and either guard Anthony Davis or the sweet-shooting Ryan
Anderson.
Anthony Davis is 6 inches taller than Draymond Green, and
will be able to shoot over him at will; he also has a foot speed advantage over
Green. Similarly Bogut has no shot at
covering Davis. The Warriors’ go-to big
man off the bench is Marreese Speights, whose career seemed to be winding down
before being rescued by Steve Kerr.
Speights similarly can’t check Davis.
Despite these potential problems, the Warriors backcourt and
wings will prove too much for the Pelicans.
As good as Holiday, Evans, and Gordon are, they are several levels below
Curry and Thompson, and Iguodala and Harrison Barnes have the defensive acumen
and athleticism to make life miserable for the Pelicans’ wing players.
The Pick: Warriors in 5
Milwaukee Bucks vs
Chicago Bulls
 |
| Difference makers. |
Milwaukee has surprised people this year. After trading away Brandon Knight for the offensively
limited Michael Carter-Williams, it appeared as though the team would take a
step backwards. Instead, the Bucks
finished strong and find themselves in a winnable series against the Bulls.
The Bucks established themselves as something of a
defensive juggernaut this season; they finished second in the league in points
per possession allowed, led the league in forced turnovers, and finished fifth
in the league in opponents’ field goal percentage. Unfortunately for the Bucks, they are not a
good offensive team. Carter-Williams
destroyed any semblance of spacing this team had with Brandon Knight; he shoots
an embarrassing 14% from three-point range, and the Greek Freak, Giannis
Antetokounmpo, shoots at a 16% clip.
The
Bulls are similarly stout on defense, but also put forth the best offense this
team has fielded in years. Pau Gasol had
a career resurgence this season, averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks
per game. Jimmy Butler has transformed
himself into a legitimate second option offensively, and the team sports the
league’s best rookie (sorry Andrew Wiggins) in Nikola Mirotic, whose ability to
both space the floor and drive from the power forward spot has changed the team’s
offense. Unfortunately for the Bulls,
Mirotic is not a great defender, and coach Tom Thibodeau seems to favor the
lumbering Joakim Noah and the limited Taj Gibson over Mirotic. Given the lack of offensive talent on the
Bucks, Bulls fans can hope that Tibs will give Mirotic more playing time, as
there is nobody on the Bucks who can destroy a defense.
The Pick: Bulls in 5
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston
Rockets
 |
| James Harden, kicking his way to glory. |
Unfortunately
for Houston, Dwight Howard is no longer an elite player. He still looks like he would be a great pro
wrestler, but his body has betrayed him.
Dwight’s regression makes Houston something less than a true title
contender. On the bright side for the
Rockets, James Harden has firmly cemented himself as the best shooting guard in
the league, and buyout additions Josh Smith and Corey Brewer provide depth and
defense. Harden made strides on the
defensive end this season, but the team’s overall defense is not in great shape
heading into the playoffs, following season-ending thumb surgery to Patrick
Beverley.
Luckily
for Houston, Dallas’ pieces just don’t seem to fit together. Dirk can still light up the scoreboard, but
his lateral movement isn’t what it was, and he can’t effectively guard many
NBA-caliber players one-on-one for more than a few seconds, or chase people
around screens. Amare Stoudamire,
acquired late in the season, has paid big dividends on offense, but like Dirk,
is a limited defender. Chandler Parsons
has not taken any steps forward this year, and Rajon Rondo has destroyed the
team’s spacing since being acquired mid-season.
This is still a formidable bunch given their championship pedigree, but
it is hard to build a case for them making it very far in the playoffs as
currently constructed. Monta Ellis, the
team’s best offensive player, has struggled since the Rondo trade, and is not
big enough to guard Harden.
The Pick: Rockets in 6
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