First Round Playoff Preview, Part 2

Spurs vs Clippers

Prepare yourselves for more Kawhi dunks.

This is a shame.  The Spurs and Clippers can make legitimate claims to being the second and best third teams in the NBA, and yet they square off in the first round.  Blame the ridiculousness that is NBA playoff seeding, in which division champions cannot be seeded below 4.  Fail.

The Clippers have frontcourt athleticism in spades, which has historically been the Spurs’ weakness (that and not having a proper small forward between Sean Elliott and Kawhi Leonard).  However, Boris Diaw has shown himself to be a surprisingly good one-on-one defender; he has nimble feet and enough bulk to not be bullied in the post.  DeAndre Jordan can jump out of the gym and rebounds his tail off, but his offensive game hasn’t evolved much beyond dunking.  That being said, he cannot be ignored on offense, because he is a potent offensive rebounder.   Tim Duncan can still score even against a beast like Jordan, as his game was never based on strength or athleticism.  Spencer Hawes, brought in to be a space creating big, has been a flop.   If Tiago Splitter’s sore calf keeps him out of action, the Spurs will be in severe trouble, as he is the team’s only big besides Duncan with the height and bulk to contend with Jordan.  Behind Splitter, the Spurs have to go to Aaron Baynes, who is barely an NBA-caliber player, and lacks Splitter’s ability to finish around the rim (and Splitter isn’t a great finisher anyway). 

The backcourt battle between these teams will be worth watching.  Tony Parker is a ball of energy, constantly attacking off the pick and roll, with a preternatural ability to get into the paint and draw contact or hit contested floaters.  Chris Paul is the best player I can think of to never make it to a conference finals; he is a monster on pick and rolls, is a deadeye midrange shooter, and is perhaps the best one-on-one defender in the NBA at the point guard position.  The Spurs will struggle to contain Paul and Blake Griffin or Paul and DeAndre Jordan on the pick and roll, but Popovich is better at making adjustments than any other coach, and the Spurs have incredible synergy on the defensive end.  The Spurs will adjust, and make someone else beat them. 

In many ways, this series could turn on the play of J.J. Redick.  The former Duke star causes difficulty for defenses with his constant movement and ability to knock down shots coming off of screens.  Like a poor man’s Kyle Korver, Redick causes defenses to bend in ways they are not intended to.  If Redick gets hot early, the Spurs will have to devote more attention than wanted to Redick, leading to open shots for other players.  San Antonio counters with talented and crafty defenders, namely Manu Ginobili and Danny Green.  Seeing a team over and over leads to defensive recognition, and Ginobili’s defensive instincts will get him into passing lanes to disrupt Redick’s catch and shoot opportunities. 

The small forward matchup is interesting only in the sense of trying to guess how many technical fouls Matt Barnes gets.  Kawhi Leonard has established himself as the best defensive wing in the league, and a blooming offensive force.  He has been a good three-point shooter for several years now, but he has finally started to show a more well-rounded offensive game.  He has otherworldly athleticism, and plays with a confidence that grows with each passing game.  As his offensive opportunities increase, Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan can get more rest, as Leonard carries more of the load. 

Given their ages and the amount of miles on their proverbial tires, it is doubtful that Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan will all play well in any given game.  However, given the team’s tremendous depth, it likely won’t matter.  Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, and Splitter are all proven playoff performers, and Cory Joseph’s emergence has given the team another heady defender. 

The Pick:  Spurs in 6

Portland vs Memphis

Get ready to see plenty of smiling Grizzlies in this series.

Poor Portland.  They lose Wes Matthews a month before the playoffs start, and now find themselves against the burliest, toughest team in the NBA.  As good as LaMarcus Aldrige is, the Blazers will be dominated in the low post, as the tag team of Gasol and Randolph will be superior to Aldridge and whomever he may be paired with (a veritable pu pu platter of Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard, and Joel Freeland). 

In the backcourt, defensive sieve and offensive star Damian Lillard will have his hands full on both ends with Mike Conley, and if he starts to get hot, Lillard will have to deal with Tony Allen, one of the best defensive guards in the NBA.  Aaron Affalo, brought in to be a super sixth man, finds himself now as the starter, and he will need to produce at a high level for Portland to have a shot.  The aforementioned Tony Allen, despite being a poor shooter, is a dangerous offensive player due to his cutting and offensive rebounding ability. 

At the small forward position, Nicholas Batum has badly regressed this season, often looking like a borderline D-League player.  The Grizzlies massively upgraded their team at the position by trading for Jeff Green, whose addition finally gives this team enough offensive firepower to credibly be a championship contender. 

The Pick: Grizzlies in 5. 

Atlanta Hawks vs New Jersey Nets

 

Deron will be in the same mood after this quick series.

The Hawks have ended the season on something of a down note; they lost their aura of invincibility.  The question is whether that was due to boredom, or if the league caught up to their tactics.  The team still sports perhaps the best power forward-center combo in the conference, the best shooter alive, a lockdown wing player in DeMarre Carroll, and a dynamic point guard in Jeff Teague. 

The Nets are an enigmatic bunch.  Despite highly paid stars like Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Deron Williams, the team barely made the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is to say, they would have finished 15 games under .500 had they been in the Western Conference.  Despite their pathetic regular season campaign, the Nets are a dangerous bunch.  When Brook Lopez is healthy (roughly 10% of the season), he is as good of a post up player as there is in the NBA.  As fate would have it, he is healthy now.  Lopez will have a big size advantage against Al Horford, who is a solid defender.  Horford will have a massive foot speed advantage against Lopez on the other end, and the Nets may go small to counter.  Joe Johnson can play the power forward position, especially against Paul Millsap, and if Brook Lopez gets toasted too many times, the hyper-athletic Mason Plumlee will see more action. 

At the end of the day however, if the Hawks are healthy and unless Brook Lopez gets 35 a game, the Hawks will win this series easily.

The Pick:  Hawks in 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

The maestro.

Anything besides a sweep will be disappointing for Cleveland.  After floundering for the first half of the season, the Cavs righted the ship by acquiring Tim Mozgov, JR Smith, and Iman Shumpert.  In two fell swoops, the team changed their weaknesses into strengths (center position and the wing depth).  They now field above-average starters at every position, and have the kind of veteran depth necessary to win in the playoffs.

The Celtics are a nice story; they have young talent across the board, but they are simply in over their heads.  I expect the games to be competitive, but the Cavs will simply overwhelm Boston down the stretch.

Pick:  Cavaliers in 4.  

First Round Playoff Matchups, Part 1

NBA Playoffs, First-Round Matchups, Part 1

Finally, the best time of year is upon us.  No more meaningless games, no more loafing defense, no more lags in intensity.  The playoffs are finally here, and today I break down the 4 series that begin on Saturday.

Washington Wizards vs Team from Canada

Strike a pose.

For a large swath of this season, these two would-be juggernauts jousted near the top of the Eastern Conference.  Alas, neither squad was consistently good enough to remain near the apex of the lesser conference, and find themselves playing in the first round.  

The Wizards have a higher ceiling than the Raptors, and the addition of Paul Pierce means they have a leader who has been through the playoffs, won a ring, and knows what it takes to be a champion.  The Raptors, by contrast, possess no championship-level experience.

The stars on the two respective teams are their point guards, the blazing fast John Wall and the mercurial Kyle Lowry.  For the last few years Wall has always seemed a step away, but this season he seemed to grasp what it takes to be great, and made solid strides across the board.  Wall increased his assists per game, assist-to-turnover ratio, his rebounding totals, and improved his field goal percentage (in large part due to shooting less 3s).  Lowry is a tough defender with a better offensive game than he gets credit for, but he is not an explosive one-on-one player, and he tends to shoot far more 3s per game than he should.  In a series in which the teams are fairly evenly matched, the difference between the two stars could prove to be dispositive.

In the front court, the Wizards have better bigs, but Nene is always a question mark.  If he decides to play hard, he can bully the Toronto bigs as he did to Joakim Noah last year, when he annihilated the Defensive Player of the Year in Washington’s win against Chicago.  Jonas Valanciunus has proven to be an effective and efficient scorer around the rim, but does not possess the kind of dominating post game that requires defense-breaking double teams.   Amir Johnson’s badly sprained ankle takes away Toronto’s depth, which will require the feisty but limited Tyler Hansbrough to take on a bigger role. 

At the shooting guard position, Toronto has an edge, as DeRozan is a budding star, whereas Bradley Beal seemed to take a small step backwards this year through his constant battle with injuries.   Louis Williams, Toronto’s gifted sixth man, has the kind of scoring ability to keep Toronto in games when their starters are not playing well.   At the small forward spot, the Wizards should have the edge with the aforementioned Paul Pierce and the improving Otto Porter, who have a clear advantage over Terrence Ross.

Pick:  Wizards in 6

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans

Steve Kerr's nightmare. 

This is not a good matchup for the Warriors.  They don’t have the best player on the floor, they are facing a backcourt of big, strong guards who can body Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and they have to contend with a team that both cleans up its defensive backboards, and can space the floor. 

Anthony Davis, if not already, will be the best player in the league in the very near future.  He is an absolute menace at both ends of the court; he has become an exceptional mid range shooter, and has the foot speed to blow past slower bigs who cover him.  Against smaller players, he can score down low, and he is an excellent pick and roll player, as his rolls to the hoop require constant attention due to his devastating finishing ability.   He is one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the league, and averaged a steal and a half per game, third most among power forwards, trailing only the much shorter Draymond Green and Paul Millsap.

Eric Gordon, once a star in the making whose career progress was derailed by injuries, has stayed healthy for the most part this year.  He has a beautiful jump shot, a strong off the dribble game, and has the physical strength to guard much taller players.  The triumvirate of Gordon, Jrue Holiday, and Tyreke Evans has proven to be a handful for any team to stop.

Unfortunately for the Pelicans, they are facing a historically great offensive team, which also has managed to play stout defense.  The Warriors allow the fewest points per possession in the league, and lead the league in opponents’ field goal percentage.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson form the best-shooting backcourt in the league, Andrew Bogut is a heady defender who cleans the glass, intimidates shots, and reads the floor well, and Draymond Green is a tough-as-nails defender who can seemingly guard 4 positions.  The Warriors have great depth as well, including former All-Stars David Lee (rarely used) and Andre Iguodala (who serves as the team’s de facto sixth man). 

The big question for Golden State is what will happen in a half court game; they are the rightful favorites to win the title, but if Bogut gets in foul trouble or gets injured, their odds of winning decrease dramatically.  One of the reasons Bogut has stayed healthy and his fouling propensity hasn’t hurt the squad is that in an open, running game, there are less opportunities for fouling, and less banging.  In a half court game in which the Warriors aren’t up by 25 at the end of the third quarter, Bogut will have to play more minutes, and either guard Anthony Davis or the sweet-shooting Ryan Anderson. 

Anthony Davis is 6 inches taller than Draymond Green, and will be able to shoot over him at will; he also has a foot speed advantage over Green.  Similarly Bogut has no shot at covering Davis.  The Warriors’ go-to big man off the bench is Marreese Speights, whose career seemed to be winding down before being rescued by Steve Kerr.  Speights similarly can’t check Davis. 

Despite these potential problems, the Warriors backcourt and wings will prove too much for the Pelicans.  As good as Holiday, Evans, and Gordon are, they are several levels below Curry and Thompson, and Iguodala and Harrison Barnes have the defensive acumen and athleticism to make life miserable for the Pelicans’ wing players.

The Pick:  Warriors in 5

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

Difference makers.

Milwaukee has surprised people this year.  After trading away Brandon Knight for the offensively limited Michael Carter-Williams, it appeared as though the team would take a step backwards.  Instead, the Bucks finished strong and find themselves in a winnable series against the Bulls.

The Bucks established themselves as something of a defensive juggernaut this season; they finished second in the league in points per possession allowed, led the league in forced turnovers, and finished fifth in the league in opponents’ field goal percentage.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, they are not a good offensive team.  Carter-Williams destroyed any semblance of spacing this team had with Brandon Knight; he shoots an embarrassing 14% from three-point range, and the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, shoots at a 16% clip.  

The Bulls are similarly stout on defense, but also put forth the best offense this team has fielded in years.  Pau Gasol had a career resurgence this season, averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.  Jimmy Butler has transformed himself into a legitimate second option offensively, and the team sports the league’s best rookie (sorry Andrew Wiggins) in Nikola Mirotic, whose ability to both space the floor and drive from the power forward spot has changed the team’s offense.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, Mirotic is not a great defender, and coach Tom Thibodeau seems to favor the lumbering Joakim Noah and the limited Taj Gibson over Mirotic.  Given the lack of offensive talent on the Bucks, Bulls fans can hope that Tibs will give Mirotic more playing time, as there is nobody on the Bucks who can destroy a defense.

The Pick:  Bulls in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

James Harden, kicking his way to glory.

Unfortunately for Houston, Dwight Howard is no longer an elite player.  He still looks like he would be a great pro wrestler, but his body has betrayed him.  Dwight’s regression makes Houston something less than a true title contender.  On the bright side for the Rockets, James Harden has firmly cemented himself as the best shooting guard in the league, and buyout additions Josh Smith and Corey Brewer provide depth and defense.  Harden made strides on the defensive end this season, but the team’s overall defense is not in great shape heading into the playoffs, following season-ending thumb surgery to Patrick Beverley. 

Luckily for Houston, Dallas’ pieces just don’t seem to fit together.  Dirk can still light up the scoreboard, but his lateral movement isn’t what it was, and he can’t effectively guard many NBA-caliber players one-on-one for more than a few seconds, or chase people around screens.  Amare Stoudamire, acquired late in the season, has paid big dividends on offense, but like Dirk, is a limited defender.  Chandler Parsons has not taken any steps forward this year, and Rajon Rondo has destroyed the team’s spacing since being acquired mid-season.  This is still a formidable bunch given their championship pedigree, but it is hard to build a case for them making it very far in the playoffs as currently constructed.  Monta Ellis, the team’s best offensive player, has struggled since the Rondo trade, and is not big enough to guard Harden. 

The Pick: Rockets in 6

History as a Guide: Does Defense Really Win Championships?

Talk to the hand. 

Year	Champion	points        allowed	point       differential	points      allowed    rank
2000-2001	Lakers	97.2	3.4	23
2001-2002	Lakers	94.1	7.1	9
2002-2003	Spurs	90.4	5.4	3
2003-2004	Pistons	84.3	5.8	1
2004-2005	Spurs	88.4	7.8	1
2005-2006	Heat	96	3.9	13
2006-2007	Spurs	90.1	8.4	1
2007-2008	Celtics	90.3	10.2	2
2008-2009	Lakers	99.3	7.7	13
2009-2010	Lakers	97	4.8	9
2010-2011	Mavs	96	4.2	10
2011-2012	Heat	92.5	6	4
2012-2013	Heat	95	7.9	5
2013-2014	Spurs	97.6	7.7	6

To attempt to ascertain who will win the NBA title this year, I researched the defensive stats of every NBA champion this millennium.  From this research a few lessons stand out.  Firstly, defense usually wins championships.  Secondly, if teams are blessed with historically great players in their primes, they can overcome lackluster regular season defense (I’m looking specifically at the 2000-2001 Lakers team, which featured Shaq at his absolute apex and Kobe entering his prime, as well as the 2008-2009 Lakers, which featured Pau Gasol in his prime and Kobe at the tail end of his prime, as well as the 2005-2006 Heat, with Dwayne Wade at his world-destroying best and Shaq still the most dominant big man in the league). 

Even of those three teams mentioned, two were in the upper half of the league in terms of least points per game allowed.  The 2000-2001 Lakers were a true anomaly.  Despite their below-average regular season defense, they went 15-1 in the playoffs; having two of the three best players in a generation (Duncan being the other member of the triumvirate) renders statistical analysis null.  However this season, none of the playoff contenders have two of the three best players of the current generation (the Thunder arguably would, but Durant is out).

Thus, we can ignore the Lakers mind-boggling success and concentrate on the statistical precedents that teams composed of mere mortals demonstrate. 

Point Differential:

In this millennium, no team has won a NBA title with a regular season point differential of less than 3.4.  The point differential average of the 14 aforementioned champions is 6.45.  Here are the stats of the current season’s contenders.  I have crossed out every team with a point differential less than 3.4, except Houston and its 3.3 margin of victory (explanation after the stats):

Team	points allowed	point differential	points    allowed   rank
GSW	99.3	10.4	14
HOU	100.4	3.3	17
MEM	95.4	3	2
POR	97.9	4.9	10
LAC	100.3	6.5	16
SAS	96.9	6	3
DAL	101.7	2.9	23
ATL	97.3	5.4	7
CLE	98.3	5.1	12
CHI	98.2	2.6	11
TOR	101.5	2.9	22

Thus we can eliminate Memphis, Dallas, Chicago, and Toronto, leaving us with Golden State, Portland, LAC, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Cleveland as legitimate title contenders.  I have chosen not to eliminate Houston because as hot as the Rockets have been lately, they may surpass that margin of victory by the end of the season, especially with the recent return of Dwight Howard.

Points Allowed:

None of the champions this millennium have allowed more than 99.3 points per game.  The average among those 14 championship teams is 93.4 points allowed per game.  The Warriors, clearly this year’s best team (as long as they aren’t playing the Spurs, who have handled them twice), are averaging 99.3 points per game allowed, which ties the 2008-2009 Lakers team, which has the distinction of allowing the most points of any champion in the 2000s. 

Does this mean that Golden State plays porous defense that will be exposed in the playoffs?  Surprisingly no.  Thanks to advanced stats, we can see that the Warriors actually allow the fewest points allowed per possession in the Association.  Color me surprised. 

Consulting the history of advanced stats, a clear pattern emerges: points per possession regular season defense is highly correlated with playoff success.  No team since 2002-2003 (as far back as ESPN’s database goes) has won a championship without being a top-10 defensive team in terms of points per possession, with the exception of the 2005-2006 Miami Heat.  That is 11 out of 12, or 92%.  Thus, I find this measure to be highly reliable.  In that vein, let’s look at the points per possession ranks of our contenders this season:

Team	points per possession (allowed) rank
GSW	1
HOU	7
MEM	5
POR	8
LAC	16
SAS	2
DAL	18
ATL	8
CLE	19
CHI	12
TOR	25

This data is quite helpful.  We had already eliminated Toronto, Memphis, Chicago, and Dallas because of their inadequate (in a historical sense) margin of victory figures.  We can add to that list the Clippers, the Bulls, and the Cavaliers (which is surprising, given how well the team has played the second half of the season). 

Thus we are left with Golden State, San Antonio, Atlanta, Houston, and Portland.

Let’s evaluate those five teams, plus the Los Angeles Clippers, who have the second-best margin of victory in the NBA, the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA, and yet still find themselves eliminated using the statistical measures I have chosen:

Snakebitten: Portland Trailblazers

Goodbye title hopes :(

This team had it all; a dynamic point guard, a go-to post player, a dynamic bench with scoring, size, a heady backup point guard, and a newly acquired star in Aaron Affalo.  All of that came to a halt when Wes Matthews, the team’s heart and soul, went down for the year with a torn Achilles.  As good as Aldridge and Lillard are, they are not good enough to take this team to the promised land without the team’s third-best player.  Try again next year.

Not quite good enough: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers aren't lacking in athleticism. 

It is odd to say that a team with the best point guard of his generation, and the most athletically-dominant power forward since Shawn Kemp, is not good enough to win a title, but it is the truth.  Despite DeAndre Jordan and his 15 rebounds per game, despite Blake’s savage dunks and improved midrange game and underrated passing skills, this team will not win the NBA championship.  They are too reliant on JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes, the former two streaky shooters who don’t bring much to the defensive end, and the latter a hothead who seems to always manage to get a technical foul at the wrong time.  Spencer Hawes was brought to this team to give the Clippers a competent third big, but has been a massive flop.  As devastating as the Blake/CP3 pick and roll can be, this team has too many defensive lapses, has inconsistent wing play, and can’t trust DeAndre Jordan in the clutch because of his foul shooting.  All of that is not to say that the Clippers won’t do some serious damage in the playoffs; Blake Griffin has come back at the right time, and this team will give every team a dogfight.

The best in the Eastern Conference: Atlanta Hawks

Net.

Only the Bulls and Cavaliers can conceivably win more than a game or two in a seven-game series against this team in the Eastern Conference.  They play defense on a string, share the ball, play without ego, and have an elite combination of shooting, rebounding, spacing, and penetration.  Kyle Korver creates constant havoc on offense, and the chaos that surrounds his endless high speed caroms off of screens leaves defenses vulnerable to layups for the screener, or causes the defense to frantically chase, always a step behind Atlanta’s crisp ball movement.  The combination of Millsap and Horford is the best 4-5 combination in the NBA.  The only reticence I have about picking this team to win the championship is that there is not a single player on the team (with the possible exception of Al Horford) who has a shot at ever making the Hall of Fame.  Even the Pistons, considered as the last team to win a title without a true superstar, had a multi-time defensive player of the year, a Hall of Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace (whose potential went up in a cloud of smoke—literally), and a likely Hall of Famer in Chauncey Billups.  Nobody on the Hawks has the playoff experience to be trusted to get a basket in the last minute of a close Finals game.

The Beard and the Moron:  Houston Rockets

Championship intensity.

Dwight Howard, when healthy, is the most dominant big in the league.  He is 6’11, has the build of a professional wrestler, yet can jump like a shooting guard.  However at this point in his career, and with a myriad of knee injuries bearing down on him, there is nothing to suggest Dwight will ever be truly healthy again.  Thus, the Houston Rockets’ success falls squarely on the shoulders of one James Harden, a man who is better at getting fouled than anyone I can remember.  The most obvious comparison for Harden is Manu Ginobili (although he reminds me more of Gilbert Arenas than Manu on many days).  Both are lefties who utilize the Euro-step, can shoot, pass, get to the rim, and draw fouls.  Harden has shown himself to be a better regular season player than Manu however, or at least has gotten more opportunities to demonstrate his ability to carry a team than Manu has as part of a three-headed monster (if Harden had stayed in Oklahoma, who knows what his stats would look like). 

This ability to get fouled and make foul shots is even more important in the playoffs than the regular season, as the defensive intensity gets tightened and easy baskets are few and far between.  The downside for Harden is that many of the calls he gets in the regular season will not be called in the playoffs.   Harden has a tendency to flail and initiate contact with defenders.  For whatever reason, in the playoffs, the referees are disinclined to reward such behavior.  Harden walks a thin line between genius and ugliness with his game; if he starts throwing himself into defenders with the clear intent of merely drawing fouls, and does not get said calls, the Rockets will face challenging circumstances. 

This team managed to snag Josh Smith and Corey Brewer mid-season, both accomplished veterans who can play defense at a high-level.  This team has good depth in the frontcourt, but that all falls apart if Dwight Howard reinjures his knee.  Further complicating matters for the team is the loss of Patrick Beverley, the Rockets’ pugnacious point guard who spearheads the team’s defense.  Having an aging Jason Terry try to slow down the West’s killer crop of point guards is asking for disaster.  There are simply too many uncertainties here to pick this team to win it all.

The Kings of the Regular Season:  Golden State Warriors

Appearing in a city near you, "Chris Paul on Skates", hosted by Steph Curry. 

The Warriors’ gaudy 10.4 margin of victory average is the highest of any team this millennium.  They will have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and have the advantage of one of the loudest and most knowledgeable fan bases in the entire NBA.  The team fields a point guard in Stephen Curry whose shooting range is anywhere to half court, a two guard in Klay Thompson who has blossomed into a two-way star, a defensive menace in Draymond Green who also shoots 3s and gathers assists, and an ornery 300 pound Australian center in Andrew Bogut who is not afraid to get physical. 

Golden State also has one of the most embarrassing collections of riches on its bench of any team in the playoffs.  Andre Iguodala and David Lee, both former All-Stars, make limited contributions, as does Shaun Livingston.  The Warriors decimated the entire NBA this season; not only did they beat the bad teams, but also went 31-9 against teams with winning records (by far the best mark in the Association).  Despite all this, I don’t think they will win the NBA title.  This season has been too easy, and the team is still somewhat green in terms of playoff experience.  Of the Warriors’ 14 losses this season, 9 have been by double-digits.  Compare that to the Spurs, who have 26 losses, but only 7 by double-digits (and only 4 with the Big 3, including an overtime defeat).  When I see that statistic, it tells me that the Warriors don’t necessarily have a backup plan when the jumpers don’t fall.  In a seven-game series, each team gets to know the other team’s tendencies, and the referees swallow their whistles more often than in the regular season.  This encourages more physical defense, which does not work in Golden State’s favor against the Spurs, especially if San Antonio puts Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive player alive, on Steph Curry.  Also of concern to Warriors fans should be Andrew Bogut’s health.  He is overdue an injury, and without him patrolling the back line, the Warriors’ defense and rebounding lose their most important cog.  Draymond Green, for all his accolades, is 6’7 230, and cannot guard Tim Duncan.  If the Warriors have to use David Lee and Mo Speights at center against Duncan and Splitter, Golden State fans will not be pleased with the result. 

The Aging Champions:  San Antonio Spurs

I smell repeat.

There is a reason the Spurs beat the Warriors twice this season, which is the same reason they beat them in the playoffs : they are the better team.  As much depth as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As much shooting as the Warriors have, the Spurs have more.  As good as the Warriors are at pick and roll, the Spurs are better.  The Spurs will see your Draymond Green and raise you Kawhi Leonard, who at this point is the team’s best player, as well as the best defensive player in the NBA.  No team adjusts more quickly to opposing systems than the Spurs.  Whether that means Danny Green, Ginobili, Patty Mills, or Leonard on Curry, whether that means playing Boris Diaw at the 5 to take opposing centers away from the rim, or playing two diminutive point guards at once, there is nothing the Spurs won’t do.   This is a team built for the playoffs, and a team that is rounding into form; they have won 7 in a row and 17 of 20. 

Manu Ginobili seems to be slowly returning to Ginobili-ness after a sprained ankle, and Kawhi Leonard seems to be both recovered from a hand injury which caused him to miss 18 games, and embracing his role as the new big man on campus.  Tony Parker is still a defensive sieve, but nobody can guard him.  Patty Mills is perhaps the fastest player in the league, and plays the kind of in-your-skin defense that throws even the best ball handlers for a loop, to say nothing of his three-point shooting.  Thiago Splitter turned into a legitimate big-time player in the Finals last season, and hasn’t looked back.  All the layups that he used to miss, he now seems to convert.  Danny Green remains one of the league’s best combinations of three-point shooting and lockdown defense.  Boris Diaw, when not eating, is an absolute enigma for opposing teams; he can guard three positions, he passes like a point guard, and can score in the post and outside.  The team rotates seamlessly, plays unselfishly, and oh yeah, has the greatest power forward of all-time to throw the ball to if the pick and roll doesn’t create any shots.  

Get ready for the playoffs!