Musings on the Second Season

Musings on the Second Season

One day into the playoffs, and no big surprises.  We knew that Dallas was old and unathletic even before Chandler Parsons went down for the year with a knee injury.  Any team that relies on Dirk, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Zaza, and Salah Mejri in crunch time, is going to be defensively challenged.  I watched roughly 3 minutes of the game before turning it off; it was as if the Mavs were moving in slow motion.  Dirk doesn’t look much physically different than he did 10 years ago, but he is slower and couldn’t jump over a coffee cup at this point in his career. 

Last tango in Paris?

The general rule is to pick the team with the best player in a series; when the two best players are on one team, it is almost unfair.  Durant may never play for OKC after this season; I think he and Westbrook are both aware of the potentially fleeting nature of their partnership and intend to take advantage of their remaining time together.  They are going to absolutely massacre Dallas.  This series should be over in four games, but if the Mavs’ role players excel in a home game and Dallas gets some hometown officiating, this series could go 5.

In the Eastern Conference, the Raptors lost game 1, as they are wont to do.  It isn’t hard to understand why: talent wins more than effort in the playoffs, when effort is no longer skewed one way or the other.  In the playoffs, the game is slower, tighter, and more methodical.  There are less bad turnovers, less fast break opportunities, and more physical, grinding, half-court possessions.  In such a scenario, the team with the best player usually wins.  Paul George is the best player in the series, by a wide margin.  Before he suffered the gruesome leg-break, PG was already a superstar.  Who will ever forget him playing LeBron to a virtual standstill at the pinnacle of LBJ’s powers (like Reggie did against MJ), blowing by him, and dunking on Birdman’s very soul?  As good as Kyle Lowry and DeRozan are, they aren’t playoff superstars.  I expect the Pacers to win a close series.

On the subject of talent and effort, when the playoffs come around and the intensity level ratchets up, I am reminded of all those people who prefer college basketball to the real thing.  They say the kids try harder, it is a purer sport, and that March Madness is exciting.  I can understand someone cheering for his alma mater, but for real basketball fans, there is nothing like the highest level of competition.  Keep your March Madness; I will always prefer watching professionals at the peak of their abilities playing against each other for the highest of stakes.  The glory of June lasts forever; an NBA player’s resume is never complete without a ring, or at least a trip to the Finals. 

CP3 and Blake ready for their annual fishing trip after another failed playoff run.  

Speaking of playoff glory, keep in mind the primacy of the second season when you hear someone anoint Chris Paul one of the best point guards of all-time.  How can someone who has never even made it to a Conference Finals be a legend?  How can one be an all-time great without ever making his team great?  It isn’t as though Paul lacks a talented supporting cast; he plays with one of the best power forwards in the league, a dominant defensive center, a deadeye shooter, and has a walking heat check off the bench in Jamal Crawford.  If the Clippers can’t make it to the Conference Finals this year (and they won’t), it will get harder and harder to consider Paul as historically elite in the second season.  One could say that Paul has been snake-bitten to play in the same conference as the Big Three of the Spurs, or against Steph Curry and his otherworldly talent.  However, that argument doesn’t hold up.  The Jazz, who never won a title despite having one of the greatest point guards and one of the greatest power forwards of all-time, at least made it to the Finals twice.  The Supersonics of Payton and Kemp made it to the Finals, as did Charles Barkley and his Suns. Reggie Miller made it to the Finals with the Pacers, and Patrick Ewing made it to the Finals with the Knicks.  None of them won a ring, but they got a lot closer than Paul ever has.  It is starting to look like Chris Paul will only make it to the NBA Finals if he buys a ticket to the game (of course, if the rumored “super friends” squad of Chris Paul, Wade, LeBron, and Carmelo are able to assemble in LA Clippers’ regalia this summer, that could change).

"Are you telling me Marc Gasol and Conley are BOTH out?  LOL"

Getting off my Chris Paul tangent, back to the picks:  San Antonio will beat the Grizzlies (if you can even call them the Grizzlies with their 2 best players on IR) in 4 games.  It will look like a regular season game for the Spurs; everyone will play 25 minutes and Bobo Marjanovic will get some run in the 4^th quarter of blowouts.  Timmy, Tony, Manu, and Boris will be seen laughing hysterically on the bench, and Popovich will try to maintain his serious demeanor in the face of a D-League-caliber opponent. 

Boston vs Atlanta has all the makings of a seven-game series, although if Avery Bradley is hurt, the Celtics might not make it that far.  Both teams are scrappy; while Atlanta is still the better team, the Hawks are on the downswing while Boston is on its way up.  Sadly for Hawks’ fans, the team’s window is closed, as Kyle Korver went from a lights-out shooter to a one-dimensional guy who seems unable to add any nuance to his game.   In the long run, who cares though?  Neither of these teams has a chance in hell at being world champion any time soon.  

"Please carry me, LeBron"

The Cavs will beat the Pistons, but it won’t be a sweep; LeBron is past his prime and Detroit is tough.  Reggie Jackson, if he has recovered from his abdominal strain, will give the inconsistent Kyrie Erving fits, Andre Drummond is a true alpha big man, and Tobias Harris and the less-prickly Morris twin will make LeBron and Kevin Love work on defense.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit were to win 2 games this series; Cleveland is good, but not great, and definitely less than the sum of its parts.  I bet Kevin “white Chris Bosh” Love regrets re-upping with a team that apparently has wasted his skills and or made him into a mediocre player.  This guy went from putting up 26 and 12 to 16 and 10, with a lower shooting percentage and seemingly much less confidence.    

Blake and his main sparring partner.  A really tough guy is Mr. Griffin.

The series between the Clippers and the Blazers should be high scoring and exciting, but the Clips are a much better team.  If Chris Paul and friends can’t beat a band of upstart kids with no playoff experience, then he should retire, Blake should become a pro fighter (preferably only against people much smaller, as is his preference), JJ should become a hair model, and DeAndre should make commercials full-time.   As well as Patriot League standout CJ McCollum has played, and as much of a star as Lillard has become, they are still woefully unequipped to beat a team with as much experience making it to the second round and then losing as the Clippers.

The last series in the Eastern Conference, between Miami and the Hornets, should be fun.  Kemba Walker is a blur, Nic Batum is a skinny man’s Boris Diaw, and Marvin Williams has become a legitimate two-way player.  Charlotte has a great bench; Lin, Al Jefferson, Frank the Tank, Spencer Hawes, and Psycho T, all of whom seem to make legitimate contributions on a regular basis.  If Michael Kidd-Gilchrest and his bulldog defense were playing, I might pick them in this series, but I think Miami is a bit too tough.  Dragic has rediscovered his game, Wade has a nasty old man game, Winslow and Richardson are providing athleticism off the bench, the addition of Joe Johnson was huge, and Whiteside has been killing people.  If Bosh weren’t injured (sick?), I would take them to beat the Cavs.  Alas, for a second straight season, it is not to be. 

The look of a champion. 

Finally, we have the Warriors vs James, Dwight, and the rest of the embarrassing Rockets.  Steph Curry played 3 minutes in the second half and the Dubs still won in a blowout.  Even if Curry’s ankle is badly injured, the Rockets are terrible and pose no danger to the Warriors.  I wonder where Dwight will end up playing after this disastrous season; maybe he can go to China and finally win a title. 

On The Place Of Conor McGregor

I have watched MMA since I was 15 years old.  The ladies had not yet discovered me in high school, so my Friday and Saturday evenings were oft-filled with trips to Blockbuster to rent UFC or K-1 tapes (yes, actual cassette tapes). 

My favorite fighters when I was younger were BJ Penn, Nick Diaz, and Fedor Emelianenko.  Each had a unique mixture of rage and confidence.  BJ Penn was the first ever non-Brazilian to be a Brazilian jiu jitsu world champion at the black belt level, and was a heavy-handed boxer with a stout chin, preternatural flexibility, and a penchant for finishing fights.  Penn was, like McGregor, supremely cocksure on matters of weight.  He was the only current champion besides McGregor to challenge the champion a division above his own (a failed attempt against GSP in a fight in which GSP should have been disqualified for greasing--the rules were subsequently changed to encompass Saint Pierre's dastardly exploitation of the rules).  Penn had already won UFC gold at 155 and 170 pounds (the only man to win belts in two weight classes other than Randy Couture) at the time he fought Saint Pierre for the 170 pound title, and routinely fought larger opponents, including Lyoto Machida, the former UFC champion at 205 pounds.  Penn was so confident that he seemed to treat weight as entirely meaningless.  There were legendary stories of his accomplishments in the training room as well, which included choking out the aforementioned former UFC 205-pound and heavyweight champion, Randy Couture.  

Nick Diaz is an incredibly tough guy whose black belt in jiu jitsu has always seemed secondary to his boxing, which has always seemed in turn ancillary to his desire to taunt his opponents to their faces.  He is a true volume puncher; his shots don’t look particularly fast or hard, but usually wear down his opponents until they simply crumble (although he did also KO current UFC champion Robbie Lawler with a single punch).  From his destruction of Frank Shamrock to his beating of BJ Penn to his thrilling massacre of Paul Daley, Diaz always brings the heat, both in terms of his firepower and his barely-controllable anger at the world. 

Fedor was the power-punching Russian cyborg, able to come back from the brink of defeat against Mirko Cro Cop and Kazuyuki Fujita, as well as finish the late great Kevin Randleman mere moments after ‘The Monster’ suplexed him onto his head.  Fedor had the best combination of skills I have ever seen in MMA; one-punch power, great takedowns, slippery hips to block takedowns, fast submissions off his back, advanced head movement, world-class grip strength to facilitate submissions, explosive transitions, and heart for days.   This was the man who willfully stayed in the guard of Antonio Nogueira for 20 minutes, defying the man with the best heavyweight jiu jitsu in the history of the sport (other than Fabricio Werdum), and bludgeoning him with an unending assault of punches (remember, this was in Pride, which did not allow elbows).  Fedor didn’t have a legitimate loss for ten full years while fighting and beating the best heavyweights in the world. 

As memorable as all three of those guys were (to say nothing of fellow legends like Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell, Anderson Silva, Rampage Jackson, Wanderlei Silva, Antonio Nogueira, and others), MMA has never seen anything like Conor McGregor.  He combines the hubris of Diaz with the explosive power punching of Fedor and the incredible confidence of BJ Penn.  Seeing him lose to Nate Diaz was a bitter pill to swallow from a fan’s point of view, although the Diaz brothers certainly deserve to get paid. 

In the first round, Conor beat Nate senseless.  There is something awe-inspiring about McGregor; he was the smaller man, but relentlessly bullied and pummeled the larger man.  He landed repeated hard shots to Nate’s head and body, slipping and countering with wonderful fluidity, badly bloodying Diaz’s face in the process.  There seemed to be a certain inevitability in the beating Conor was giving Nate; just as all of Conor’s previous UFC opponents had failed to make it to the final bell (save for Max Holloway, who lost a lopsided decision in a fight in which Conor tore his ACL), Nate’s demise, too, seemed inevitable.  One of my friends with whom I watched was celebrating at the end of round 1, just because he wanted to get his money’s worth before Conor ended it. 

In the second round though, Conor, for the first time I can recall, started to swing and miss.  He was facing someone with advantages of 4 inches of height and 2 inches of reach, to say nothing of the weight.  Conor didn’t cut any weight to make 170; he weighed-in at 168 pounds, looking not only fully hydrated, but also a bit puffy.  Diaz made the weight, but only after refusing to fight at 155 or 160 because he was too far out of fight shape.  This has been an area of constant debate in the aftermath of the bout.  Not being in “fight shape” could be interpreted as meaning that Nate was fat or eating Cheetos on the couch all day, or, as Dana White said, he was training for a triathlon but he wasn’t on a strict enough diet to make 155[1].  Diaz however refuted the notion that he was training for a triathlon, saying instead that he was on a boat in Cabo[2].  Neither Dana nor Nate is known as the most trustworthy of characters, so it is hard to say what is true and what isn’t as it pertains to Diaz’s fitness level. 

An interesting insight on the weight issue came from Nate’s teammate Gilbert Melendez a few days prior to the fight.  He said that when Nate is training for a fight at 155 and is near that weight, Gilbert is competitive with him, but that when Nate is not in fight shape and is much heavier, Nate destroys him, and Gilbert’s punches don’t faze Nate.  Diaz is a sparring partner for Andre Ward[3], the best 168 pound boxer in the world; he is used to getting hit hard by guys much bigger than Conor, and that ability to take shots without getting flustered or knocked out was what won him the fight. 

As we saw in the bout, weight matters.  Nate probably weighed over 180 in the cage, while Conor didn’t cut any weight and weighed 168, looking much larger than the weight at which he usually fights (I would guess he rehydrates to about 160 normally).  The UFC is in an odd position now; Conor will still be a mega-draw, but he cannot afford another loss.  Nate Diaz is now a star, but if the UFC were to put him into a title match at 155, it would be against Rafael Dos Anjos, who battered a clearly not-healthy Nate Diaz several years ago.  If they were to rematch and Dos Anjos were to win, it would make Conor look bad for losing to a guy who isn’t even the best fighter at a weight class a mere 10 pounds over his own.  At least given that the loss to Diaz occurred two weight classes over his own, Conor didn’t lose that much face.  To preserve the idea (some would say a fiction) that Nate is a 170-pound monster, and to capitalize on his stardom post-Conor, the UFC should give him an immediate title shot against Robbie Lawler. 

Conor appears to be leaning towards a return to the 145-pound division, which seems like the right decision.  McGregor did not fight poorly against Nate; he pursued and battered the larger man, landing a number of shots that would have knocked out anyone at 145.  He simply ran out of gas from unloading all of his bombs, not imagining that someone could actually take his punches.  History tells us that when a megastar loses once in the UFC, his drawing power is not particularly diminished.  The only stars coming close to Conor in UFC history in terms of drawing power are Brock Lesnar and Georges Saint-Pierre.  Both suffered losses in the UFC but were able to maintain their PPV domination[4].  The UFC must however pray that Conor knocks out Aldo or Edgar or whomever else he may fight in his next contest.  If he loses two in a row however, the party may be over. 

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[1] http://www.mmamania.com/2016/2/26/11119154/dana-white-nate-diaz-training-triathlon-will-be-in-phenomenal-shape-ufc-196-mma

[2] http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/ufc-nate-diaz-conor-mcgregor-yacht-cabo-mexico-got-the-call-to-fight-030716

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MEJPz_oayI&feature=youtu.be&t=131

[4] http://mmapayout.com/blue-book/pay-per-view/

Believe The Hype

Nobody Likes Me

There is an untold truth leading up to the McGregor-Mendes fight.  The truth in question is that Chad Mendes is no less cocky than Conor McGregor, but instead of coming off as funny and confident, Mendes comes across an insecure bully with a Napoleon complex.  Mendes desperately wants to be loved; that is why he has repeatedly said, “a lot of people want to see me destroy Conor McGregor”, and why he begged Jose Aldo to lend him his fans.  Mendes is trying to convince himself that he is a hero to the masses, and that people are coming to watch him KO McGregor.  The truth is that nobody besides hardcore MMA fans cares about Chad Mendes, while Conor McGregor is on ESPN and late night talk shows, signing endorsement deals, getting love from U2, and getting walked to the Octagon by Sinead O'Connor.  

Mendes’ nickname is ‘Money’, which is what he will be getting only because his opponent is Conor McGregor.  The only other fighter with the nickname of ‘Money’, Floyd Mayweather, has the McGregor effect on his opponents.  They are jealous of the wealth, start to hate him, and promise to teach him a lesson in respect and humility.  For a guy like Chad Mendes who has done everything the right way athletically in his career, it is unnerving to see that despite his talent, despite his wrestling and MMA achievements, he is merely there to serve as an opponent for the guy everyone came to see. 

For all of the accolades that Mendes has received in his career, he has no pay-per-view (PPV) drawing power.  In his second clash with Jose Aldo (Aldo won the first by KO in the first round), the fight lasted 25 minutes and both men had success on offense.  It was considered a match of the year candidate, and yet drew only 180,000 PPV buys, one of the lowest numbers in the UFC’s modern era.  Conor McGregor has made Chad Mendes famous in the past two weeks, something Mendes never could have done on his own, even if he had beaten Aldo and become champion. 

For all of his braggadocio, McGregor is nothing if not honest.  During their conference call, after Mendes said that he was going to beat McGregor because people want to see him do it, McGregor correctly told him that Chad is only here to be part of the McGregor Show.   Some people might be turned off by his brashness, but his words are accurate.  Conor is the reason this show has a $7.1 million live gate (UFC’s highest ever total in the United States), as well as the reason the show is trending upwards of 1 million pay-per-view buys.  Chad is there to be sacrificed. 

Believing Your Own Hype

At yesterday’s pre-fight press conference, Chad described himself as hitting “like Mike Tyson”.  I’m afraid that the Californian has bought into his hype a bit too much.  Of Mendes’ 17 wins, 7 have come by way of KO/TKO.  By contrast, of McGregor’s 17 wins, 15 have come by KO/TKO (the other two wins were a submission and a decision after he tore his ACL and couldn’t put weight on his leg).  McGregor has knocked out successful 155 pounders, while Mendes looks like he could easily make 135.  Chad further called McGregor “one-dimensional”, which appears false based upon the times Conor has either dominated fights on the ground. 

Examples of this grappling acumen have manifested themselves throughout McGregor’s career.  In the second and third rounds of his fight against Max Holloway, when, after tearing his ACL, McGregor switched from dominating the Hawaiian on the feet (one judge scored the first round 10-8) to doing so on the ground, and did so more successfully than more acclaimed wrestlers that Holloway fought, most notably Dennis Bermudez (to whom Holloway lost a split-decision).  The grappling skills were also on display against Dave Hill, a noted submission fighter with 9 submission wins to his name, and only one submission loss, that coming against McGregor.  In that fight McGregor floored his British opponent twice with head kicks, but the pugnacious Englishman kept coming forward to close the distance and grapple with ‘Notorious’.  Unfortunately for Hill, he was outclassed on the ground, and after numerous McGregor guard passes, Conor finally choked Hill out.  In McGregor’s fight against Dennis Siver, the German fighter several times shot in for a takedown, getting deep on McGregor’s hips because Conor was in full-on attack mode.  None of Siver’s attempts turned into anything besides Conor being on the mat for less than a second, bouncing up, and freeing himself to continue the onslaught. 

On the Feet

Chad Mendes has made tremendous strides as a striker.  He has gone from a guy who was purely a takedown bulldozer, to a guy who has KO power and knows how to use it.  That being said, he is still badly outmatched on the feet in this fight.  Not only does McGregor have an 8-9 inch reach advantage and a 3-4 inch height advantage (to say nothing of leg length), he also covers distance with a grace and rapidity that is rare in MMA.  His footwork is stellar, a product of his amateur boxing experience.  His head movement is better than any MMA fighter I can think of besides Anderson Silva.  He has great balance and flexibility, leading to kicks that nobody else in MMA throws.   Mendes has made several petty comments about Conor’s yoga training; at one point he asked if Conor’s plan on the ground was to do the splits on top of him, and he made a separate reference about this being a fight, not a yoga class.  Chad made these comments because he is a meathead wrestler.  Being Urijah Faber’s protégé, training at a Napoleon complex-themed gym called “Team Alpha Male” (only in that gym are alpha males all 5’6 or below), and being a wrestler mean that Mendes is by nature going to mock and deride non-conventional training forms. 

I have seen Mendes’ athleticism; he is incredibly strong, quick, and explosive.  He is not however loose-limbed or flexible.  Conor knows that Mendes’ only offense on the feet will come in the form of punches and low kicks.  By comparison Mendes will have to face side kicks, hook kicks, kicks to the knee, jumping knees, punches, roundhouse kicks, front kicks, spinning kicks, and knee thrusts when Chad tries to close the (considerable) range.  For all the talk of how Chad has great punching power, let’s be serious here.  Conor is the much larger man and packs a much larger punch.  Chad looked great with his hands against Aldo because Jose just stood in place and traded.  McGregor does not operate in that manner.  He controls space and timing, seems to always get his lead foot outside his opponent’s lead foot, and has an iron chin.  Further, he throws straight punches, whereas Chad’s bombs come from closer in. 

One fight that sounds odd to mention but may be instructive was the bout between Mendes and Clay Guida.  Unlike McGregor, Guida has no skills whatsoever on the feet, no athleticism, no trickery, and lacks one-punch KO power.  What Guida does do, like McGregor (albeit in an entirely different manner), is move around a lot and control the distance.  Guida struggled to hit Mendes because of his lack of speed and technique, but for the first two rounds of the fight, Chad barely hit Guida because of ‘The Carpenter’ and his unusual movement.  If Mendes has trouble finding a guy with no speed, limited power, and no ability to cut angles or maneuver his opponent, what will he do with a guy like McGregor? 

Hendo vs Anderson, Redux?

When it comes to a white American wrestler with a big right hand against an arrogant (in fighting style—Anderson didn’t however talk trash like McGregor) foreigner with striking skills beyond what an MMA fighter is supposed to have, the closest matchup I can think of is Anderson Silva vs Dan Henderson.  The knock on Silva going into that fight was that he had never faced a top-level wrestler.  Pundits said Henderson, with his Olympic-alternate level wrestling skills and punching power, would overwhelm Silva.  Of course, the opposite occurred.  After a round of ineffectual lay n pray by TRT Dan, in the second stanza Silva opened up with strikes, dropping the acclaimed wrestler before choking him out.  One could make the case that Mendes is a mini version of Henderson, and that McGregor is a smaller version of Anderson (but with Chael Sonnen’s mouth and an even greater ability to deliver KOs---Anderson has 20 KO wins in 40 career fights, while Conor has 15 in 20 career fights). 

Conor KO 2.