ALL IS NOT LOST

ALL IS NOT LOST

Mixed martial arts (MMA) fans are a weird, neurotic, fatalistic bunch.  I say this as someone who spent his high school years frequenting Blockbuster Video in search of VHS copies of UFC events (clearly I was not too popular with the ladies).  This was years before the organization got big, or rather after it got big and was subsequently banished away from relevance by John McCain and other boxing cronies who deemed it barbaric and dangerous (while boxing, of course, is safe and refined).  

Guys like Pat Miletich, Frank Shamrock, Kevin Randleman, and Bas Rutten were my favorites in those dark days of MMA.  The UFC was forced out of many places where they tried to run shows, had the rules changed by state athletic commissions to dilute the product (even banning closed fists, which led to the worst fight of all time, an incredibly dull thirty-minute affair between Ken Shamrock and Dan Severn, a fight which almost single-handedly ruined the UFC), and faced outrage from the media and Congress.  Eventually, Bob Meyrowitz, the original owner, was forced to sell the UFC.  The buyers were the Fertitta brothers, Las Vegas casino heirs who were well connected, and who used those connections to get the sport widely regulated and back on pay per view.  The Fertittas’ money and courage (they were at one point down tens of millions of dollars in their UFC venture), along with Dana White’s charm and chutzpah as a charismatic front man, led the UFC back to relevance. 

The period in which the UFC’s existence is in doubt has passed, yet the fatalism remains.  One cause for such an attitude of resignation is the role of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) in MMA.  Everyone has an opinion on questions concerning PEDs, on topics ranging from whether or not certain drugs deserve to be worthy of a suspension, to what percentage of fighters are on the sauce to whether fighters who juice should be banned from competition.  There is a fear that if too many high caliber fighters are found to be steroid users, that the public will turn on the sport, viewing it and its athletes as illegitimate (to say nothing of the idea, oft-espoused by MMA fans, that the sport’s best days are behind it, that the audience is overexposed, and that there are no new stars to sustain the UFC in the post-GSP/Anderson Silva/Brock Lesnar/BJ Penn/Liddell/Couture/Rampage/Rashad world). 

The past month has been a great time for critics of MMA.  In that period, Jon Jones, the best fighter in the sport, fresh off a dominating victory over two-time Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier, tested positive for cocaine.  The reaction was mixed; cocaine is not a performance-enhancing drug, and actually has a negative effect on the body, as it lowers testosterone production.  In fact Jones’ testosterone levels were shockingly low; so low in fact that many suspected that he had used a masking agent to cover his own steroid use and make it seem that he had done nothing wrong.  The Nevada State Athletic Commission performed carbon isotope ratio testing to determine if a masking agent had in fact been used, and concluded that it had not, much to the relief of the UFC.  While cocaine is not a good thing to put into your system, Jones’ use of said substance did not impact his performance, and had the added bonus of creating a great deal of publicity for the UFC. 

Jones did an interview with Fox Sports on the subject in which he expressed his contrition; Dana White announced that Jones was going to rehab, his name was splashed all over ESPN, and Jon Jones became a full-on celebrity.  The pay per view numbers of his subsequent fights will benefit from how famous he has become; there is a curiosity factor about celebrities that is hard to ignore, and Jones’ celebrity clearly now reaches beyond MMA fans to the sports world at large, despite his personality (which can best be described as aloof, churlish, and hypocritical).

Now, with the shocking positive pre-fight drug test of Anderson Silva (and Nick Diaz’s positive post-fight marijuana test), the critics are at it again, convinced that this will in fact speed up MMA’s demise in America.  UFC pay per view buys are consistently down, and the few stars remaining in the company are cheaters (Anderson Silva, Vitor Belfort), drug users (like Jones and Diaz), unable to stay healthy (Chris Weidman, Cain Velasquez, Rashad Evans, and Dominick Cruz come to mind), or unable to draw pay per view buys (Demetrious Johnson, Jose Aldo, Renan Barao).   The UFC’s only true potential stars with room for growth are Conor McGregor (who the UFC must be praying will defeat Jose Aldo), Ronda Rousey (whose ability to headline a card that will draw pay per view buys is unknown), Robbie Lawler (room for growth because despite his veteran status, he has yet to defend his newly acquired title) and the spectacular, oft-injured Anthony Pettis (and we can’t forget the likely return of Brock Lesnar, which will lead to cries of joy in Las Vegas so loud that they will be audible all the way to Alaska). 

Despite legitimate criticism of the direction of MMA in America, of the UFC’s inability to make new stars, of the pervasive role of PEDs in the fight game, and of the credibility of various athletic commissions (more on that later), the UFC is not getting weaker.  Criticism of Anderson Silva, even criticism that makes the sport as a whole look bad (as Silva has often been considered someone above the fray of steroids, someone with too much natural talent and class to need to resort to cheating), is good for the UFC.  Having Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz’s failed drug tests on the front page of ESPN.com is good for business; it keeps the UFC in the public eye, and elevates the UFC to the same level as other major sports.  Diaz and Silva, if and when they give press conferences responding to the charges, will attract millions of eyeballs.  Even if Silva is viewed as a cheater, the public’s fascination with him will only grow, as it is likely he will use the excuse of his badly broken leg as the impetus for steroid use, in an effort to heal faster.  It is hard to not feel sorry for someone who suffered such a horrific injury, and has never before tested positive for steroids in a professional career lasting almost 20 years.  If Silva decides to fight again (an unknown at this point), it will be an event perhaps even bigger than Silva vs Diaz given the theme of redemption, and the affinity that fans feel for him. 

Nick Diaz will similarly benefit from Silva’s positive drug test, and his status as a counter-culture hero will grow with yet another positive marijuana test (his third—he has a medical marijuana card in California, but the Nevada State Athletic Commission does not care about that).  The fight will be changed to a no-contest, and Diaz can point to the fact that Anderson Silva, a man who dominated a former champion in Forrest Griffin at 205 pounds, needed steroids to win a decision against a guy in Diaz who has competed as low as 160 pounds.  Diaz’s ability to speak honestly, without any political correctness filter, has endeared him to fans.  Now that he is even more famous than he was when he agreed to fight Silva (between his amazing antics and trash talking during the fight, and now the publicity from the drug tests), his next fight, likely at 170, will be a huge draw.  If Diaz gets one win at 170, his subsequent fight will likely be for a title shot. 

The likely biggest loser from the positive drug test is not the UFC, but rather the NSAC.  The NSAC performed the blood test that Silva failed on January 9.  Somehow, despite the fight taking place January 31, a full three weeks later, the NSAC was unable to obtain results of the test until AFTER the fight.  This is a blood test which takes mere minutes to analyze, yet the NSAC couldn’t get results for almost a month.  Either you believe that the NSAC was incompetent and lazy, or you think that they wanted the fight to go on, fearing a show cancellation if the main event were lost, and wanting to get their share of the penalty they would receive (30% of the fighters’ purses, in this fight worth a cool $390,000 in fees to the NSAC). 

There are several ways this can play out, and a criminal investigation is possible, or at least would be if not in a cesspool like Nevada.  If the public outcry reaches a level at which the Attorney General feels inclined to investigate, phone records and emails will be examined, and it is likely that evidence of a cover-up would be discovered.  The odds suggest that the Nevada State Athletic Commissioner would resign in such a situation, and would avoid prison time.  If the evidence were to point to the UFC pressuring the NSAC to not release the results until after the fight, so as to make sure their event came to fruition, Dana White himself may be forced to resign.  Either way, the publicity would only make the UFC more mainstream, and would only increase pay per view buy rates.  The show will go on. 

Be’eretz Nochriya (In Alien Land)

Be’eretz Nochriya (In Alien Land)

Some of the dead from the Kishinev Pogrom of 1903.   

Funeral in France for the victims of Mohamed Merah's murderous anti-Semitic rampage at a Jewish school in Toulouse.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Author’s Note: Generalizing is not a particularly effective analysis tool, but neither is being politically correct to the point of avoiding painful truths so as to remain inoffensive.  A poll last year showed that 27% of French youth between 18-24 support ISIS; not an insignificant figure.  Thus, while it would be absurd to insinuate that the majority of Muslims in France are anti-Semitic, it would similarly be farcical to pretend that hatred of Jews in the French Muslim community is anything but widespread.

Sewing Hatred

The seeds of the heinous murders in France were not planted with the murder of 4 Jews at the Jewish Museum of Belgium this past summer.  Nor were the seeds of French Muslim Jew-hatred planted with the gang rape of a Jewish woman in Paris in November of last year by a group of Muslim men, nor with the firebombing of Jewish businesses and synagogues last summer.  Mohamed Merah’s murder of 3 Jewish children and a teacher at a Jewish school in Toulouse in 2012 was not the triggering event leading to the current wave of murderous anti-Semitism, nor was the kidnapping and beating of a Jew in Paris by 6 Muslim Frenchmen in 2008, who scrawled “dirty Jew” on his forehead (in that case, the French police said it was not a hate crime, remarkably).  The anti-Semitic comedian Dieudonné’s reverse Nazi salute and its ensuing massive popularity was a harbinger of things to come, but that still was not the event which foreshadowed the path on which we currently find ourselves.  Rather, the current iteration of French Muslim Jew-hatred clearly manifested itself for the first time with the brutal torture and murder of Ilan Halimi in 2006. 

Halimi, a Jew of Moroccan descent, was kidnapped by a group of French Muslims who abducted the 23-year-old because he was Jewish, beat him and tortured him for 24 days, before finally pouring acid on his body, setting him on fire, and leaving him to die.   In the Halimi case, the French police didn’t treat the kidnapping and torture of Halimi as a hate crime, even though the authorities knew that the kidnappers had previously tried to kidnap other Jews, and despite emails from the gang to Halimi’s rabbi saying “we have a Jew”.   A movie released in France in 2014 about the Halimi murder stoked anger at the police’s ineptitude and underestimation of the danger Halimi was in. 

Zionism From An Unlikely Source

There is no small dose of Shakespearian irony in the disturbing anti-Semitism of many French Muslims, which has manifested itself through years of attacks, open hatred, and murders.  The irony starts with the common background of the attackers and the attacked, as the Jews of France are often themselves of Arab descent.  In the recent spate of terrorism, one of the cartoonists (Wolinski) was a Tunisian Jew; in the Kosher market attack, one of the victims was a Tunisian Jew whose father is the head rabbi of Tunis, another was born in Tunisia, and a third victim was the son of Algerian Jews.  Like their Muslim tormentors, Arab Jews fled Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia for safer, greener pastures, and now find themselves being blamed for Israel’s alleged offenses against the Palestinians by their fellow North Africans-turned-Frenchmen.  While it defies logic that French Jews who do not live in Israel should be blamed for the fate of Palestinians in Gaza, nobody has ever accused anti-Semites of being logical.   

Adding further irony to the tragic situation is the simple truth that every anti-Semitic attack in France makes European Jews feel less safe, pushing them towards Israel.  In effect, just as the Spaniards, the Russians, and finally the Nazis demonstrated the clear need for a Jewish state, the French Islamists are doing their own service to Zionism through their repeated Kristallnachts.   If French Jews are attacked by their Muslim countrymen for merely existing, then what choice do they have but to move to a country where Jewish lives matter? 

This sharp rise in French Muslim anti-Semitism has led to a sharp rise in Jewish migration from France to Israel.  This anti-Semitism doesn’t only manifest itself in spectacular crimes; it also occurs in the quotidian existence of French Jews, who most of the time do not even report the events, because they feel the police are unable or unwilling to help.  As of October 2013, 40% of French Jews admitted to being afraid to openly display their Judaism (and that number has certainly subsequently increased).  From being spit at and threatened on the train to being assaulted in the street to living in constant fear, French Jewry is suffering death by 1,000 cuts.  In 2012, roughly 2,000 French Jews left; in 2013 the number increased to more than 3,200, and in 2014, the number more than doubled to 7,000.  Certainly the events of this month ago lead one to believe that 2015 will feature more Jews leaving France than ever before. 

The Blame Game

Throughout European history, Jews have served as convenient scapegoats for leaders of all stripes; this constant oppression, violence, and loathing led to the founding of the modern Zionist movement.  Herzl, himself an entirely secular and assimilated Austrian Jew, became convinced of the need for a Jewish state after the Dreyfus Affair (in which a French Jewish army captain was falsely accused of being a spy for Germany), and the subsequent protest rallies in which the French populace chanted “death to the Jews!”  Despite his attachment to his home country, Herzl realized that Jews didn’t belong in Europe, and that combating anti-Semitism was an exercise in futility.  Herzl was convinced that Jews they would always be outsiders in Europe, in the best of times merely mistreated, and in the worst of times liable to die at a whim at the hands of a government in need of a “foreign element” to blame.  The modern Zionist movement, led by Jewish luminaries such as Herzl and Vladimir (Ze’ev) Jabotinsky, was not principally a religious movement; rather it was based on the desire of Jews to be treated as equal human beings, without fear, violence, and degradation. 

The second wave of aliyah by European Jews to Palestine/Israel (then an Ottoman territory) came around the turn of the 20^th century.  This mass migration was inspired by a string of brutal pogroms and anti-Semitic policies that made the idea of uprooting one’s family and traveling to a (then) malaria-infested desert less daunting than remaining to wait and be killed. 

In that time period in Czarist Russia, the lure of Marxism tempted the masses, and calls for freedom rang out across the political spectrum.  To counter the efficacy of the revolutionaries, the Czar’s supporters labeled the revolution a Jewish plot, and came up with the slogan “Beat the Jews and Save Russia.”  This incitement led way to action, and in April of 1903 in the city of Kishinev, the Russian masses committed a pogrom against the Jews, killing more than 50, injuring hundreds, and raping dozens of women. 

The theme continued in subsequent years.  In 1905, following Russia’s defeat at the hands of Japan, Jewish “spies” were blamed for the result of the war, leading to more pogroms and anti-Semitism.  During the Russian Revolution of the same year, Jews were again blamed, and deemed “enemies of Christianity” by the Czar and his supporters.  Unsurprisingly, more violence against Jews followed.   

A New Side Of An Old Coin

French Prime Minister Manual Valls, a staunch supporter of French Jews, in an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, said:

We have the old anti-Semitism, and I’m obviously not downplaying it, that comes from the extreme right, but this new anti-Semitism comes from the difficult neighborhoods, from immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa, who have turned anger about Gaza into something very dangerous. Israel and Palestine are just a pretext. There is something far more profound taking place now…It is legitimate to criticize the politics of Israel. This criticism exists in Israel itself. But this is not what we are talking about in France. This is radical criticism of the very existence of Israel, which is anti-Semitic. There is an incontestable link between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism. Behind anti-Zionism is anti-Semitism.”

The old anti-Semitism (to use Valls’ words), did not go anywhere.  In a shocking exchange at a rally following the Paris murders, BBC reporter Tim Willcox interviewed a Jewish woman whose parents were Holocaust survivors and moved to Israel after miraculously surviving the horrors of the concentration camps.  When the woman said that she, as a French Jew was scared, and that Jews hadn’t been this collectively fearful since the 1930s, Willcox, reflecting a large percentage of Europe, retorted that “Palestinians suffer hugely at Jewish hands as well”. 

The Hamas Effect                                                                                                                        This summer during the war between Israel and Hamas, many French Muslims vented their collective rage against Israel on the Jews of France.  In Sarcelles, a mixed city nicknamed “Little Jerusalem” because of its large Jewish population, wannabe Hamas terrorists burned down Jewish-owned businesses and attacked synagogues.  

The particular brand of anti-Semitism in France is not entirely a Muslim phenomenon; the European Christian anti-Semitism that has destroyed the lives of Jews for the better part of a millennium is alive and well.  The Christian blood libels against Jews, the stereotypes, etc., were all transferred to Muslims, who combined these views with both their Koranic-inspired hatred of Jews and their brainwashing at the hands of Arab satellite TV and media (owned by authoritarian regimes desperate to keep the attention off of their own shocking behavior). 

What Does The Future Hold?

There is no reason to think that the situation in France (or Europe in general) will improve.  There is a visceral hatred of Jews among too many violent youths for the events of this month not to re-occur.  Europe is already seeing the rise of far-right and anti-immigration parties in response to the massive demographic changes that have occurred as a result of Arab and Turkish migration to the continent.  It is inevitable that as more and more people bring views that do not mesh with western values into Europe, these societies will be less inclined to take in more immigrants, to provide social welfare benefits, or to practice tolerance.  As the right wing gets stronger, attacks against Muslims in Europe are inevitable, which will lead to further alienation and fanaticism. 

In a sad bit of irony, on the day of the Charlie Hebdo attack, French writer Michel Houellebecq released a book called Soumission, about France’s first Muslim president taking office in 2022 after France submits to Islam.  In the book, the runoff in the presidential election is between Mohammed Ben Abbes, the leader of a fictional Muslim Fraternity party, and the National Front's leader, Marine Le Pen. 

As for the Jews, the name of this article comes from a poem written by Chaim Bialik, widely considered the best Hebrew-language poet of the last century.  Bialik was from present day Ukraine, and wrote the following poem after the Kishinev Pogrom:

Once, in that town, under a heap of garbage

I noticed a piece of parchment—

A fragment of the Torah

I picked it up and carefully removed the dirt.

Two words stood out: Be’eretz Nochriya (In Alien Land)

This scrap of parchment

I nailed above the door to my own home.

For in these two words out of the Book of Genesis

Is told the entire story of the Pogrom.

The Christian pogroms at the turn of the 20^th century demonstrated clearly that Europe was Eretz Nochriya (alien land) for Jews, which spurred a massive Jewish exodus from the Russian Empire.  Sadly, the present-day Muslim pogroms are doing the same.  Only fear of death makes people leave wealthy countries and move without knowing the language or having some sort of guaranteed employment.  Fear of death is the current sentiment among many European Jews, and Israel will benefit from it. 

NBA Quarterly Report

Lessons Learned One-Quarter into the Season

J4G deployed its most handsome correspondent to Africa several months ago, and subsequently has been short-staffed.  However despite these personnel-related limitations, we would never want to disappoint our target demographic (incredibly clever and good-looking basketball fans) by failing to produce text now that we are well into the NBA season. 

A part of me didn't even want to see this season occur; how could a blog named after Manu Ginobili ever top the storybook results of last season's Finals?  The odds suggest that nothing will be able to match the emotional high that was last season’s result, namely good triumphing over evil.   I can't recall a more compelling storybook ending than what happened in the Finals last season, in any sport.  The old guys, so close to victory in 2013, who lost in the cruelest way imaginable, came back, one year older, deflated but not deterred, still demanding to face their conquerors from the previous year.  The Spurs didn’t just want to win the title last year; they wanted revenge.  That revenge came in such a lopsided series that it almost seemed too good to be true.  Tiago Splitter, who in the 2013 Finals was so bad that he seemed to waste every single layup attempt (culminating in LeBron James stealing his soul), epitomized the team’s redemptive transformation through his own soul-crushing block of 56-year old Dwayne Wade in the 2014 Finals. 

Of course, there was a certain Argentine who also sought redemption.  In 2013, Ginobili looked bad; his legendary ball handling skills seemed to have gone the way of Mitt Romney’s presidential bid, his first step was gone, and his shot was off.  Instead of a guy making 8 amazing plays and 2 bad plays a game, the ratio was inverted.  He seemed to physically be broken, on his last legs, and with shaken confidence.  In 2014 however, Manu appeared to be himself again.  Sure, he doesn’t have the speed he had 10 years ago, but he is still the most creative passer in basketball, and entirely unguardable on pick and rolls.  Manu's reputation as a fearless, athletic clutch shooter and pickpocket is well known, but his intangibles are what make him so special.  Ginobili has an innate ability to understand the big moments; when his team really needs a play, he seems to always find a way to get a deflection, get into the lane, draw a foul, etc.  

In the 2014 Finals, Manu was the protagonist, hitting 3s, driving, getting steals, and dropping dimes.  The most memorable moment of the Finals came on the sequence when Manu forced Chris Bosh into retirement via dunking on his soul, then came back the next possession and hit a step-back 3 with mere seconds remaining on the shot clock, a shot which extinguished all hope that Heat players had for a comeback.   When Manu came into the game in Game 5, the Spurs were getting destroyed; it was as if they had already checked out and were visualizing their victory parade, rather than closing out the best basketball player of his generation.  Ginobili quickly went on a 6 point run to get San Antonio back into the game, then went on an 8 point run at the end of the second quarter to break Miami’s spirit.  From that point on, the game was a total blowout; the Spurs at one point went on a 59-22 run en route to their much-deserved title.

So that brings us to the present day; it is time to evaluate this season’s biggest competitors to the throne, and the most embarrassing teams in the Association.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

A young team with a surly and brilliant point guard, a rookie pit bull of a backup point guard, a smorgasbord of unconventional bigs, a high scoring small forward, and a defensive stopper of a combo guard. 

Rajon Rondo is a unique talent; despite his diminutive stature, he is two rebounds and one point per game shy of averaging a triple double.  Rondo is also a passing savant with Ginobili-esque floor vision, and completes passes and dribble moves that most other players don’t even dare to attempt.  Rondo and Steve Nash share the same basketball brain; the only difference is that the former is a great athlete and a mediocre shooter, while the latter is (was) a mediocre athlete and one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.

So far this season, Boston has been positively mediocre, and I say that as a good thing.  Although the Celtics lack a true number one scoring option (Jeff Green should only be a team’s premier scorer in the D-League or Europe), the team has been competitive.  Between Kelly Olynyk shooting lights out from the field and from the three-point line, and Jared Sullinger (and his four-inch vertical leap) living at the free throw line, the Celtics have proved to be as feisty as their leader, the aforementioned Rondo.  The rumors of trading Rondo are inevitable, as there is a theory in the NBA that it is better to be terrible rather than mediocre; I can only hope Boston realizes that they will not find anyone as good as Rondo, and that hitching one’s wagons to draft prospects is an incredibly risky bet.

Brooklyn Nets

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The 2005 All-Star team of Deron Williams, KG, Kirilenko, and Joe Johnson returns.  Last year the Nets swept Miami in the regular season, but fell short in the playoffs.  This year’s iteration of the Nets is one year older and slower, but adds an exciting piece in the form of Bojan Bogdanovic.  If Brook Lopez can miraculously stay healthy, this team will be a tough out in the playoffs, if they make it that far. 

One of the big surprises this season is how little coach Lionel Hollins is playing Mason Plumlee.  After the Duke star’s stellar run with the national team, one would expect him to play more than 15 minutes a game on a team with a broken big (Lopez) and a 60 year old big (KG) ahead of him on the depth chart.  Alas, it has not been the case.  Hollins has elected to play Mirza Teletovic at power forward in an attempt to give the team more spacing.  Teletovic has played fairly well (shooting 35% from three-point range), but does not provide the defense, rebounding, rim protection, or finishing ability of Plumlee. 

New York Knicks

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

There's only one J.R. Smith (thankfully).

Carmelo Anthony and his team-killing ways return to the Big Apple after flirting with leaving NYC to pursue other opportunities, including playing with fellow team-killer Kobe Bryant.  Luckily for devoted NBA fans, Carmelo, JR, Amare, and the whole gang are back in Madison Square Garden, where endless chucking, mean-mugging the referee, and terrible defense will be commonplace.  I am personally looking forward to seeing the Knicks trot out a lineup of Amare, Bargnani, Carmelo, JR, and Jose Calderon; between the five of them, there will not be a single attempted box-out over the course of a game (but if they are all healthy, that will be a hell of a scoring team). 

So far the Knicks have been bad; not a surprising result for a team with JR Smith and a new offensive system.  New York is allowing opponents to shoot more than 50% from the field, and roughly 38% from three-point land, while ranking 27^th in the league in points scored per game.  On the bright side, at 4-17, the Knicks are well placed to make a playoff push in the barren wasteland that is the Eastern Conference (I’m being serious; the Knicks are only 5.5 games out of 8^th place).  One feel good story coming out of Madison Square Garden is that Amare Stoudamire is having somewhat of a renaissance season, averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per game.  This is definitely a team worth watching on League Pass, mostly for the laughs.

Philadelphia 76ers

Chances of winning the 2015 NCAA championship: 4%: 

The worst team ever assembled.

This may very well be the worst team in the history of the NBA, and I am not exaggerating.  The awful good people of Philadelphia deserve this better.

Toronto Raptors

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%: 

The Raptors are shockingly the best team in the conference so far this season.  They are winning by an average of almost 9 points per game, and seem destined to have home court advantage for at least two rounds of the playoffs.  The Raptors don’t turn the ball over (ranking second in the league in turnovers lost), and are tied for 8^th for turnovers forced.  This is a team with balance, depth, gritty defenders, a great leader in Kyle Lowry, and a legitimate number one scorer in the rapidly improving (though currently injured) DeMar DeRozan.

Despite all that, I’m not a believer in this team’s playoff success this season.  They are still far too green, and have no proven postseason winners.  Perhaps more importantly, the Raptors’ defense has been subpar.  The team is allowing exactly 100 points per game, and allowing a higher percentage from the three-point line than is usual from a title contender (the team ranks 22^nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 18^th in points per game allowed).  I see a second-round exit in the cards for the Raptors.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 10%

As is always the case with the Bulls, the team will go as Derrick Rose goes.  The hyper-athletic point guard with the fragile knees/legs will determine if the Bulls coast to the Conference Finals, or find themselves struggling to advance in the playoffs.  The addition of Pau Gasol has been huge for the Bulls; they have a legitimate low post scorer now, a 7-footer who can rebound, block shots, pass, and shoot.  If Gasol and Rose are healthy in the playoffs, this team will be the favorite in the Eastern Conference.  Between Gasol, Noah, and Gibson, the Bulls have possibly the best rotation of bigs in the NBA, and the bench has been fortified by Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic. 

Jimmy Butler has been outstanding this season, somehow averaging more than 20 points per game despite being quite limited with the ball.  Having bigs who can pass and score in the post opens opportunities, apparently.  As a fan of basketball, it is hard not to root for Derrick Rose to be able to stay healthy so we can see how good he really is.  One surprise for this team so far has been how mediocre they have been on defense.  The Bulls are allowing 99.9 points per game and do not look like the dominating defensive bunch we are accustomed to.  That can be partially attributed to the loss of Luol Deng, and partially to the addition of several new players who are playing heavy minutes. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 20%

The struggles of the Cavaliers so far this season are well documented; LeBron is over 30 now, Kevin Love (like Stella) hasn’t found his groove yet, and Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters seem immature.  All that being said, the Cavs are 11-7, winners of six games in a row.  Cleveland’s up and down play would be a cause for concern for most teams, but most teams don’t have the best player of his generation.

In my humble opinion, it would not necessarily be a bad thing to get rid of Irving to bring in a pass-first veteran point guard (hello Rondo!), and to get rid of Waiters, who, by all accounts, is a locker room nightmare.  As Chris Bosh predicted, Kevin Love is clearly frustrated by a lack of touches, but the recent winning streak seems to have cured what ailed him as it pertains to pouting to the media.

There had been talk of unspoken tension between LeBron and coach Blatt, but that seems to be behind them now.  Winning is indeed a panacea.

The odds suggest that the Cavs recent success will not be followed by more losing streaks; this team simply has too much talent to not figure it out.  After a season of playing together and learning each other’s nuances, what team would want to go against a crunch time lineup of Irving, Marion, LeBron, Love, and Varejao?

Detroit Pistons

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Another brick.

Poor Stan Van Gundy.  A team whose three best players play the same position, and none of them can shoot.  Good luck with that.   Greg Monroe’s contract situation looms over the team, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see a trade made to clear the front court logjam.

Indiana

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Whoever said that coaching doesn’t matter needs to watch the gritty Pacers.  Without superstar Paul George, without the mercurial Lance Stephenson, with no David West until recently, and with George Hill sidelined with a knee injury, the Pacers are only 6 games under .500, amazingly.  This is a team that, on talent alone, may not be favored to win the Euroleague, but they play smart, defend the three-point line, rebound well, and compete hard.  This team may even make the playoffs, unbelievably.  

Milwaukee

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Before the season, this was considered a team to watch in the future, but here we are, 21 games into the season, and Milwaukee is above .500 and seems on its way to a playoff berth.  The Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has shown the kind of absurd ceiling which makes him so sought after by rival GMs; his length, ball skills, and feel for the game make him a unique talent.   Jabari Parker has played well in his rookie campaign, leading all rookies in scoring and ranking second in rebounding.

The real star of the team however is Brandon Knight.  The young point guard has been the catalyst for the team’s success, averaging 18 points per game, shooting over 40% from three-point range, and swiping more than a steal and a half per game. 

In other positive news for the Bucks, Larry Sanders has managed to stay out of prison, and has returned to his rebounding, shot blocking, and dunking ways.  This is a deep young team, and they have a legitimate chance to win a playoff series. 

Southeast Division

Atlanta

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The Hawks team which managed to make the playoffs last season is much stronger this season, as Al Horford returns to the squad after a (second) torn pectoral muscle injury ended his 2013-2014 campaign.  The Hawks have bigs in Horford and Millsap who cause problems for opposing coaches with their range and athleticism, and add to that mix Kyle Korver (shooting an absolutely mind-boggling 56% from the three-point line and averaging 1.7 points per shot, third in the NBA) and All-Star level point guard in Jeff Teague (top 10 in the NBA in points per shot and assists). 

I break you.

What makes this team so difficult to guard is that they have shooters at every position; even Russian mobster lookalike Pero Antic can stroke 3s, creating all kinds of driving lanes for Jeff Teague.  I fully expect this team to win a playoff series, but they are a superstar away from winning a championship.   

Charlotte

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Lance blows this year.

Poor Charlotte.  This team has regressed this year, as the squad misses the spacing, shooting, and passing that Josh McRoberts provided at the power forward spot.  This season’s iteration of the Hornets is dysfunctional; Lance Stephenson has not proven to be worthy of the hype, and is managing to average barely 10 points per game despite playing the lion’s share of the minutes at the shooting guard position.  Worse yet, Lance has been horribly inefficient; he is 78th (!) among all shooting guards, averaging an abysmal .94 points per shot.  This team has hope despite the sizable regression; Al Jefferson is still an absolute monster on the low post, and Kemba Walker may be the quickest point guard in the league.   That being said, this season has been nothing short of a disaster so far.

Miami

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The Heat have been respectable so far this year; Luol Deng is doing the best he can in place of LeBron, Chris Bosh looks like a rejuvenated All-Star, and Mario Chalmers seems to be relaxed and improved without LeBron there to always remind him of how much he sucks.  Shabazz Napier has proven to be a solid contributor, and as Josh McRoberts’ health improves, I expect to see him get more minutes.  Assuming Wade gets healthy, this team could win one or even two rounds in the playoffs, but they are a piece away from being a true contender for the crown. 

Orlando

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

As usual, the Magic are bad.  That being said, the team’s future is bright if management can keep the core together.  Nik Vucevic has been excellent, averaging 19 points and 12 rebounds per game; Tobias Harris has been impressive as well, averaging 19 and 8.  Even Evan Fournier, the pride of Moroccan French basketball fans everywhere, has been good offensively, putting up more than 16 points per game.  At the end of the day however, this team is 2 years away from relevancy (that being said, Orlando is only two games out of the playoffs, disgracefully). 

Washington

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

It is always a good thing when a team's starting center is familiar with advanced weaponry.

My beloved Wizards field perhaps their most promising team of my lifetime.  Not since the days of C-Webb, Juwan, Rob Strickland, and Muresan have Washington fans had so much to be excited about (except for the Gilbert Arenas years before he tore his knee and brought guns to the locker room—people forget how amazing he was).  The Bullets/Wizards of my youth were a sad, mismanaged bunch; every bad management decision that could happen, did in fact happen.  The Wizards managed to trade away young Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond’s creaky bones, managed to waste lottery picks on Jan Vesely, Jarvis Hayes, Jared Jeffries, and overall #1 Kwame Brown, traded the pick that would have been Ricky Rubio, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, or Ty Lawson to rent Randy Foye and Mike Miller for a year, and almost had a gunfight in the locker room. 

This year’s team fields a stellar starting five; Gortat is a double-double machine, Nene is a talented and big-bodied bruiser who can embarrass even the best of defenders, Paul Pierce is a legend, Bradley Beal is one of the best young shooting guards in the game, and John Wall has elevated his play this year.  The bench too has been fortified, as Otto Porter has emerged as a legitimate player, and Kris Humphries and Rasual Butler have given the Wiz steady play.  

It will be a disappointing season for Washington if they don’t win at least two playoff series.  They have the pieces to be a real contender in the Eastern Conference this year; Wall isn’t a kid anymore, their frontcourt is solid, and they have shooters, leadership, and experience.   I would say they are one year away from title consideration, but making the Eastern Conference Finals is very much within their range of possibilities. 

Western Conference

Northwest Division

Portland

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

Poor Portland.  If they were in the East, they would be the odds-on favorite to go to the NBA Finals this season.  Lillard is a year older and wiser, Aldridge is still very much in his prime, Robin Lopez has shown himself to be a legitimate NBA starting center, and the bench is much improved.  That improvement has manifested itself in the signings of Chris “White John Salmons” (for his proclivity to shoot the ball every time he touches it) Kaman, and Steve “B. Rabbit” Blake (as Kobe Bryant dubbed him, after Eminem’s character in 8 Mile).  Kaman has been providing instant offense and rebounding off the bench; there aren’t many 7-footers with his offensive game; it is quite a luxury to have a player like that as a 6^th man.  Blake has been solid as a pass-first point guard coming off the bench, currently ranking 15^th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, and 12^th in assist-to-turnover ratio. 

As things stand in the Western Conference, it is doubtful that this team will make it to the Finals.  Despite the team’s gaudy 15-4 start, LeMarcus Aldridge is still a guy whose bread and butter is long two-pointers, and who doesn’t get to the line enough for someone who shoots as often as he does.  He is simply not good enough to be the best player on a team that wins a championship. 

Utah/Minnesota/Denver

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

There was a time not too many seasons ago, when Denver looked like a legitimate title contender.  They had Andre Iguodala, a healthy offensive machine in Danilo Gallinari, a quick and strong point guard in Ty Lawson, 10 guys who could play, and the best home court advantage in the league due to the altitude.  Oh, how times change.  Gallo is finally back from tearing his ACL (at least in form, but not in function), Iguodala is gone, but the depth and Ty Lawson remain.  In the East Denver could be a playoff team; in the West, unless Gallo miraculously heals, they will be on the outside looking in when the NBA’s second season starts. 

Utah is bad; they have some nice pieces in Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, but their guard play has been subpar, and the team generally seems young and immature.  Stockton and Malone are not coming out of that dressing room any time soon.

Minnesota is the Philadelphia of the Western Conference.  Between losing Kevin Love and the injuries to Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic, and Ricky Rubio, there are more people on this team who get carded buying alcohol than there are people who have played meaningful NBA minutes.  They will be horrible, but Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are both promising youngsters, and we have yet to find out if former #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett, obtained in the Kevin Love trade, is anything to write home about. 

OKC

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

Kendrick ponders how he has managed to stay in the league for so many years without any discernible skills.

Hard to rate this team’s chances; now that Westbrook and Durant have come back from injuries, the Thunder will be a handful for anyone.  The question is, did OKC dig itself too deep of a hole to get out of?  Certainly if this team were in the Eastern Conference, a slow start wouldn’t matter, but in the West, where only 4 teams are more than a game below .500, the Thunder’s catch-up distance may be too great.  The race for the 8^th spot in the Western Conference will be between OKC (currently 7 games below .500), New Orleans and Denver (each one game below .500), Sacramento (1 game over .500), and Phoenix (currently 4 games above .500).  The other 7 spots are reserved for teams currently above .700, namely San Antonio, Memphis, Houston, Dallas, LAC, Portland, and Golden State. 

Southwest Division

San Antonio

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 40%

Yes we can!

The toughest team for the Spurs in the playoffs over the last half-decade has been the Thunder; they are too athletic, too young, and too long for the Spurs, or at least they were.  In the playoffs last year, with Serge Ibaka missing the first two games due to a calf injury, the Spurs won both contests and seemed on their way to a sweep.  When Ibaka made a Willis Reedesque return in game 3, the Thunder won two straight and tied the series against the Spurs 2-2.  Rightfully, San Antonio fans had terrible memories of the series they lost two seasons earlier to the Thunder, when they similarly went up 2-0 and seemed unstoppable, only to lose 4 straight to the upstarts from Oklahoma.  However the Spurs were not deterred, and won the next two contests (with Ibaka playing) to take the series 4-2.  The rest is history.  This year, it seems the Thunder won’t even make the playoffs, which is good news for the Spurs.  The rest of the Western Conference is even better than it was last year, strangely.  Houston, Portland, Memphis are 15-4, Golden State is 16-2, Dallas is 15-6, and the Clippers are “only” on pace for 59 wins.

The Spurs started slowly, but are starting to shake off the cobwebs.  Ginobili spent the offseason recovering from a broken leg, and has been uneven this season, but appears to be rounding into form.  The Spurs have already beaten Dallas, Golden State, Cleveland, Memphis, and the Clippers; their only loss by more than 5 points was in the third game of the season against the Rockets, and the team seems more coherent now than then.  The Spurs have won 9 of their last 10, with the sole defeat coming in a trap game against the Nets in New Jersey. 

The Spurs are still missing Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills, and Kawhi Leonard has been suffering from an eye injury which has limited his effectiveness.  The Spurs additionally continue to rest Ginobili and Duncan on the second night of back-to-back games despite the exigency of obtaining home court advantage in the playoffs. Tony Parker’s recently tweaked hamstring would be cause for concern for most teams, but the Spurs offense runs like a Rolex and won’t miss many beats without the blur from France.   In sum, the Spurs will keep rumbling along even with their backups, and will hope that their main cogs are healthy for the playoffs.  If they are, San Antonio will likely hoist a 6^th championship banner to the rafters in June.

Houston

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 3%

The look of a champion?

I have a hard time viewing Houston as a serious title contender.  I don’t care what Houston’s record is, I just don’t see a team starring James Harden, one of the worst defensive players in basketball, winning a title.  Dwight Howard’s knee has been acting up as well, and without him, this team has no chance to win the championship.  On the other hand, assuming Howard’s knee holds up, this team features two GREAT defenders in Howard and Patrick Beverley, an above average defender and shooter in Trevor Ariza, and quality role players in Jason Terry and Montiejunas. 

A big problem for the Rockets in the playoffs is that teams adjust to Harden’s foul-seeking ways, as do referees.  The absurd calls he gets in the regular season, when he just throws himself into defenders and initiates contact, do not exist to the same degree in the playoffs.  Similarly, opposing defenders become more adept at showing the referees that they aren’t doing anything to Harden except backing away. 

Dallas

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 4%

Seeing Tyson Chandler back on the Mavericks makes it hard not to wonder what if.  What if Mark Cuban had bitten the bullet, re-signed Chandler, and paid the luxury tax.  Would the Mavericks have won another title?  We will never know.  What we do know is that this may be the best offensive team in the NBA.  Between Dirk commanding double teams from every spot on the floor, Monta Ellis’ speed, handle and finishing ability, and newly-added Chandler Parsons’ ability to shoot, pass, and finish, the Mavericks give opposing defenses no room to rest.  With Tyson Chandler and Brandon Wright seemingly finishing everything (both shooting absurdly over 70% from the field!), and with quality point guard play from the three-headed monster of Devin Harris, J.J. Barea, and Jameer Nelson, the Mavericks have a wealth of offensive talent.  This team gave the Spurs their hardest series in the playoffs last year, and this year’s version of Dallas is much improved. 

Memphis

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 4%

I must confess that after my beloved Wizards and Ginobili and friends, this is my favorite team in the Association.  Marc Gasol has further established himself as the best center in the game.  He has always been an excellent passer and defender, but this year he has become a more aggressive offensive player as well.  The question is, does the improvement in Gasol’s game provide enough of a boost to help the Grizzlies finally get by the Spurs?  Last year in the playoffs, the NBA suspended Gasol’s partner in crime, Zach Randolph, for the decisive game 7 against the Thunder.  Conspiracy theorists say that the league suspended Randolph so as to preserve the NBA’s wet dream of a Durant vs LeBron Finals rematch.  If Randolph had played, I suspect the Grizzlies would have beaten the Thunder.  Alas, what if doesn’t change reality.  As it currently stands, Memphis’ reality is something to be envied. 

Incidental contact, clearly.

This team has the best big man combination in the game, an elite wing defender in Tony Allen, and a quality starting point guard in Mike Conley.  The question facing this team is whether the wing play of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Quincy Pondexter, Vince Carter’s corpse, and that of Tayshaun Prince will be enough to overcome the other wings in the Western Conference.  In whom would you place your trust:  Ginobili and Leonard or Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter?  Tayshaun and Vince or Iguodala and Klay Thompson?  Any two Memphis wings against Harden and Ariza?  Monta Ellis and Parsons?  Durant and anyone?  Wesley Matthews and the French Swiss army knife, Nic Batum?  Among the 7 Western Conference teams above .700, only the Clippers’ wings are as mediocre as those of Memphis.  Time will tell if this lack of exceptional play on the outside will prevent Memphis from going from a very good team to a great one. 

New Orleans

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Let me get this down on e-paper: Anthony Davis is the best basketball player alive not named LeBron James, at least until we know if Kevin Durant is 100% back from injury.  He deserves to be MVP this year, and it isn’t close.  He leads the NBA in PER, leads the league in blocks AND steals, and is third in points per game and sixth in rebounds.  Otherwise, this team is mediocre.  Tyreke Evans, for all his ball skills, always seems to be on bad teams, and at some point there is no point in denying that he is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.  Eric Gordon was on his way to being a star before a knee injury took away his athleticism, and despite several years of rehab, he is not what he was, and doesn’t appear that he will ever return to his previous form.   Jrue Holiday is a solid starting point guard and Omer Asik is a great rebounder and defender, but the team just seems to be lacking something.  Ryan Anderson is shooting a meager 33% from 3, down from his career mark of 38.3%.  Davis’ singular greatness has kept this team from the depths of despair.  There aren’t many players in the history of the game who have his combination of size, athleticism, ball skills, defensive intensity, and feel for the game.  He is more important to his team than any other player in the league.  Unfortunately, it is not enough for this group of ill-fitting pieces. 

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Karma.

I will be honest: I have really enjoyed watching Kobe’s team suck.  He is one of the most overrated players in NBA history, fortunate to have played with some of the best bigs in NBA history at their absolute primes, and the beneficiary of some questionable officiating and absolutely absurd collapses.  Between Shaq (who, in his prime was one of the 5 best players of all-time), Gasol (who, let’s not forget, should never have been with the Lakers, and wound up on the team due to Memphis’ absolutely absurd trade of Pau for Kwame Brown), the screwjob in Sacramento when the referees blatantly cheated to give the Lakers a victory they did not deserve, and Portland’s epic meltdown, Kobe should probably have one title (to say nothing of Derek Fisher’s game-winner against the Spurs).  Instead, he has 5, and idiots like to say he is something like Michael Jordan.  Wrong.  He is not even in the same stratosphere as Jordan.  Kobe is a guy who alienates all his teammates, with whom nobody wants to play, a guy who cares nothing at all about his team’s success, and shoots his team out of game after game. 

Kobe’s scoring average may be exceptionally high this season, but he is shooting only 39% and taking 22 shots a game (the highest total in the league by 3 shots per game), many of those shots being long, well-defended fade away jumpers.   He is the quintessential volume scorer; the defanged, self-proclaimed Black Mamba is averaging an abysmal 1.15 points per shot, which ranks him 45rd in the NBA….among shooting guards! 

Los Angeles Clippers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 5%

The Clippers have 2 of the best 10 players in the league; that alone makes them contenders.  The supporting cast was bolstered this offseason with the addition of Spencer Hawes, who provides needed spacing and shooting from the center position.  The team’s weaknesses are well known; their wing players are mediocre, DeAndre Jordan can’t shoot from more than 4 feet away from the basket or make free throws, and Chris Paul doesn’t seem to have the Isiah (not a misspelling) Thomas ability to take over playoff games from the point guard position.  Blake Griffin is putting up 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, but in the playoffs, when there is less fast breaking, his half court game will be put to the test (again).  Unless he can go from top 10 to top 3, this team won’t win a title. 

Phoenix

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

This is a fun team to watch, but there is clearly tension in the desert.  The team’s 3 best players, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas, all play the same position.  There simply isn’t enough ball to go around.  Gerald Green can jump out of the gym and shoots lots of corner 3s, but otherwise provides nothing.  Miles Plumlee is a good rebounder and defender who can similarly jump out of the gym, but he is limited.  The Morris twins are solid contributors, but neither will ever be an All-Star.   This team’s likely result is a first round exit, followed by the departure of one of their three point guards in the offseason. 

Sacramento Kings

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

DeMarcus Cousins has gone from an overly emotional young man who can play to a great player who is a bit emotional.  That is an important distinction.  His maturation has led this team to the precipice of a playoff berth, no small feat in the uber-competitive Western Conference.  He is third in the NBA in PER, and has turned into the dominant bull that many thought he was capable of becoming.  Rudy Gay has played better than expected this year; he has shed his volume shooter moniker, and is shooting a very respectable 46.3% from the field.  The loss of Isaiah Thomas hasn’t hurt this team much, it seems.  Darren Collison has been a quality replacement, and Ben McLemore has turned into a legitimate NBA rotation player.  Omri Casspi (SHALOM!!) has returned to his ancestral homeland of Sacramento and has delivered stellar bench play; the team would be wise to give him and fellow stellar sub Carl “The Truth” Landry more minutes.  Unfortunately for this team, the absolute ceiling on how far they can go is first round defeat.  Don’t hang your heads though, Sacramento fans, as the Kings are definitely on the upswing.

Golden State Warriors

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 10%

This team has it all.  Steph Curry has morphed into a truly great player; a guy who can shoot off the dribble from anywhere on the court, who has also turned into a halfway decent defender and a passer with above-average floor vision.  His shooting is so off the charts that he finds himself being run off the three-point line and into the paint quite frequently.  Luckily for the Warriors, Curry has developed a nice in between game, and is a clever finisher at the rim.  Klay Thompson has gotten more consistent with age; the days of him scoring 25 one game and 7 the next game seem a thing of the past.  Harrison Barnes has settled into his role of being a hyper-athletic shooter and defender quite nicely; Draymond Green’s ascension to starting power forward while David Lee has been injured has proved most successful; he gives the team a physical, defensive presence, and a floor spacer; a rare combination indeed.  The angry Australian, Andrew Bogut, provides a physical presence, a rim protector (fourth in the league in blocks), an excellent rebounder (14^th in the league in rebounds), and a guy who sets some of the meanest screens in the Association. 

When David Lee comes back to fill a 6^th man role (something he isn’t accustomed to—this is a guy who has averaged 18 points and 9 rebounds 4 different seasons), with former All-Star Andre Iguodala as the 7^th man and passing wizard Shaun Livingston at the backup point guard, this team will be downright scary.  All that being said, I still believe this team is a year away.  Bogut is their only true big man, and if he gets into foul trouble, the likes of Marreese Speights will have to guard Tim Duncan and Marc Gasol.  Additionally, the Warriors are still a bit too reliant on Steph Curry’s three-point shootings.  In the playoffs the openings get smaller, and the game becomes much more physical.  As great as Curry is, he is only about 175 pounds, and will be on the receiving end of a constant pounding from bigger defenders.  What will this team turn to if the threes don’t fall?  Time will tell.