NBA Quarterly Report

Lessons Learned One-Quarter into the Season

J4G deployed its most handsome correspondent to Africa several months ago, and subsequently has been short-staffed.  However despite these personnel-related limitations, we would never want to disappoint our target demographic (incredibly clever and good-looking basketball fans) by failing to produce text now that we are well into the NBA season. 

A part of me didn't even want to see this season occur; how could a blog named after Manu Ginobili ever top the storybook results of last season's Finals?  The odds suggest that nothing will be able to match the emotional high that was last season’s result, namely good triumphing over evil.   I can't recall a more compelling storybook ending than what happened in the Finals last season, in any sport.  The old guys, so close to victory in 2013, who lost in the cruelest way imaginable, came back, one year older, deflated but not deterred, still demanding to face their conquerors from the previous year.  The Spurs didn’t just want to win the title last year; they wanted revenge.  That revenge came in such a lopsided series that it almost seemed too good to be true.  Tiago Splitter, who in the 2013 Finals was so bad that he seemed to waste every single layup attempt (culminating in LeBron James stealing his soul), epitomized the team’s redemptive transformation through his own soul-crushing block of 56-year old Dwayne Wade in the 2014 Finals. 

Of course, there was a certain Argentine who also sought redemption.  In 2013, Ginobili looked bad; his legendary ball handling skills seemed to have gone the way of Mitt Romney’s presidential bid, his first step was gone, and his shot was off.  Instead of a guy making 8 amazing plays and 2 bad plays a game, the ratio was inverted.  He seemed to physically be broken, on his last legs, and with shaken confidence.  In 2014 however, Manu appeared to be himself again.  Sure, he doesn’t have the speed he had 10 years ago, but he is still the most creative passer in basketball, and entirely unguardable on pick and rolls.  Manu's reputation as a fearless, athletic clutch shooter and pickpocket is well known, but his intangibles are what make him so special.  Ginobili has an innate ability to understand the big moments; when his team really needs a play, he seems to always find a way to get a deflection, get into the lane, draw a foul, etc.  

In the 2014 Finals, Manu was the protagonist, hitting 3s, driving, getting steals, and dropping dimes.  The most memorable moment of the Finals came on the sequence when Manu forced Chris Bosh into retirement via dunking on his soul, then came back the next possession and hit a step-back 3 with mere seconds remaining on the shot clock, a shot which extinguished all hope that Heat players had for a comeback.   When Manu came into the game in Game 5, the Spurs were getting destroyed; it was as if they had already checked out and were visualizing their victory parade, rather than closing out the best basketball player of his generation.  Ginobili quickly went on a 6 point run to get San Antonio back into the game, then went on an 8 point run at the end of the second quarter to break Miami’s spirit.  From that point on, the game was a total blowout; the Spurs at one point went on a 59-22 run en route to their much-deserved title.

So that brings us to the present day; it is time to evaluate this season’s biggest competitors to the throne, and the most embarrassing teams in the Association.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

A young team with a surly and brilliant point guard, a rookie pit bull of a backup point guard, a smorgasbord of unconventional bigs, a high scoring small forward, and a defensive stopper of a combo guard. 

Rajon Rondo is a unique talent; despite his diminutive stature, he is two rebounds and one point per game shy of averaging a triple double.  Rondo is also a passing savant with Ginobili-esque floor vision, and completes passes and dribble moves that most other players don’t even dare to attempt.  Rondo and Steve Nash share the same basketball brain; the only difference is that the former is a great athlete and a mediocre shooter, while the latter is (was) a mediocre athlete and one of the greatest shooters in NBA history.

So far this season, Boston has been positively mediocre, and I say that as a good thing.  Although the Celtics lack a true number one scoring option (Jeff Green should only be a team’s premier scorer in the D-League or Europe), the team has been competitive.  Between Kelly Olynyk shooting lights out from the field and from the three-point line, and Jared Sullinger (and his four-inch vertical leap) living at the free throw line, the Celtics have proved to be as feisty as their leader, the aforementioned Rondo.  The rumors of trading Rondo are inevitable, as there is a theory in the NBA that it is better to be terrible rather than mediocre; I can only hope Boston realizes that they will not find anyone as good as Rondo, and that hitching one’s wagons to draft prospects is an incredibly risky bet.

Brooklyn Nets

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The 2005 All-Star team of Deron Williams, KG, Kirilenko, and Joe Johnson returns.  Last year the Nets swept Miami in the regular season, but fell short in the playoffs.  This year’s iteration of the Nets is one year older and slower, but adds an exciting piece in the form of Bojan Bogdanovic.  If Brook Lopez can miraculously stay healthy, this team will be a tough out in the playoffs, if they make it that far. 

One of the big surprises this season is how little coach Lionel Hollins is playing Mason Plumlee.  After the Duke star’s stellar run with the national team, one would expect him to play more than 15 minutes a game on a team with a broken big (Lopez) and a 60 year old big (KG) ahead of him on the depth chart.  Alas, it has not been the case.  Hollins has elected to play Mirza Teletovic at power forward in an attempt to give the team more spacing.  Teletovic has played fairly well (shooting 35% from three-point range), but does not provide the defense, rebounding, rim protection, or finishing ability of Plumlee. 

New York Knicks

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

There's only one J.R. Smith (thankfully).

Carmelo Anthony and his team-killing ways return to the Big Apple after flirting with leaving NYC to pursue other opportunities, including playing with fellow team-killer Kobe Bryant.  Luckily for devoted NBA fans, Carmelo, JR, Amare, and the whole gang are back in Madison Square Garden, where endless chucking, mean-mugging the referee, and terrible defense will be commonplace.  I am personally looking forward to seeing the Knicks trot out a lineup of Amare, Bargnani, Carmelo, JR, and Jose Calderon; between the five of them, there will not be a single attempted box-out over the course of a game (but if they are all healthy, that will be a hell of a scoring team). 

So far the Knicks have been bad; not a surprising result for a team with JR Smith and a new offensive system.  New York is allowing opponents to shoot more than 50% from the field, and roughly 38% from three-point land, while ranking 27^th in the league in points scored per game.  On the bright side, at 4-17, the Knicks are well placed to make a playoff push in the barren wasteland that is the Eastern Conference (I’m being serious; the Knicks are only 5.5 games out of 8^th place).  One feel good story coming out of Madison Square Garden is that Amare Stoudamire is having somewhat of a renaissance season, averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per game.  This is definitely a team worth watching on League Pass, mostly for the laughs.

Philadelphia 76ers

Chances of winning the 2015 NCAA championship: 4%: 

The worst team ever assembled.

This may very well be the worst team in the history of the NBA, and I am not exaggerating.  The awful good people of Philadelphia deserve this better.

Toronto Raptors

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%: 

The Raptors are shockingly the best team in the conference so far this season.  They are winning by an average of almost 9 points per game, and seem destined to have home court advantage for at least two rounds of the playoffs.  The Raptors don’t turn the ball over (ranking second in the league in turnovers lost), and are tied for 8^th for turnovers forced.  This is a team with balance, depth, gritty defenders, a great leader in Kyle Lowry, and a legitimate number one scorer in the rapidly improving (though currently injured) DeMar DeRozan.

Despite all that, I’m not a believer in this team’s playoff success this season.  They are still far too green, and have no proven postseason winners.  Perhaps more importantly, the Raptors’ defense has been subpar.  The team is allowing exactly 100 points per game, and allowing a higher percentage from the three-point line than is usual from a title contender (the team ranks 22^nd in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 18^th in points per game allowed).  I see a second-round exit in the cards for the Raptors.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 10%

As is always the case with the Bulls, the team will go as Derrick Rose goes.  The hyper-athletic point guard with the fragile knees/legs will determine if the Bulls coast to the Conference Finals, or find themselves struggling to advance in the playoffs.  The addition of Pau Gasol has been huge for the Bulls; they have a legitimate low post scorer now, a 7-footer who can rebound, block shots, pass, and shoot.  If Gasol and Rose are healthy in the playoffs, this team will be the favorite in the Eastern Conference.  Between Gasol, Noah, and Gibson, the Bulls have possibly the best rotation of bigs in the NBA, and the bench has been fortified by Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic. 

Jimmy Butler has been outstanding this season, somehow averaging more than 20 points per game despite being quite limited with the ball.  Having bigs who can pass and score in the post opens opportunities, apparently.  As a fan of basketball, it is hard not to root for Derrick Rose to be able to stay healthy so we can see how good he really is.  One surprise for this team so far has been how mediocre they have been on defense.  The Bulls are allowing 99.9 points per game and do not look like the dominating defensive bunch we are accustomed to.  That can be partially attributed to the loss of Luol Deng, and partially to the addition of several new players who are playing heavy minutes. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 20%

The struggles of the Cavaliers so far this season are well documented; LeBron is over 30 now, Kevin Love (like Stella) hasn’t found his groove yet, and Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters seem immature.  All that being said, the Cavs are 11-7, winners of six games in a row.  Cleveland’s up and down play would be a cause for concern for most teams, but most teams don’t have the best player of his generation.

In my humble opinion, it would not necessarily be a bad thing to get rid of Irving to bring in a pass-first veteran point guard (hello Rondo!), and to get rid of Waiters, who, by all accounts, is a locker room nightmare.  As Chris Bosh predicted, Kevin Love is clearly frustrated by a lack of touches, but the recent winning streak seems to have cured what ailed him as it pertains to pouting to the media.

There had been talk of unspoken tension between LeBron and coach Blatt, but that seems to be behind them now.  Winning is indeed a panacea.

The odds suggest that the Cavs recent success will not be followed by more losing streaks; this team simply has too much talent to not figure it out.  After a season of playing together and learning each other’s nuances, what team would want to go against a crunch time lineup of Irving, Marion, LeBron, Love, and Varejao?

Detroit Pistons

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Another brick.

Poor Stan Van Gundy.  A team whose three best players play the same position, and none of them can shoot.  Good luck with that.   Greg Monroe’s contract situation looms over the team, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see a trade made to clear the front court logjam.

Indiana

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Whoever said that coaching doesn’t matter needs to watch the gritty Pacers.  Without superstar Paul George, without the mercurial Lance Stephenson, with no David West until recently, and with George Hill sidelined with a knee injury, the Pacers are only 6 games under .500, amazingly.  This is a team that, on talent alone, may not be favored to win the Euroleague, but they play smart, defend the three-point line, rebound well, and compete hard.  This team may even make the playoffs, unbelievably.  

Milwaukee

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Before the season, this was considered a team to watch in the future, but here we are, 21 games into the season, and Milwaukee is above .500 and seems on its way to a playoff berth.  The Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has shown the kind of absurd ceiling which makes him so sought after by rival GMs; his length, ball skills, and feel for the game make him a unique talent.   Jabari Parker has played well in his rookie campaign, leading all rookies in scoring and ranking second in rebounding.

The real star of the team however is Brandon Knight.  The young point guard has been the catalyst for the team’s success, averaging 18 points per game, shooting over 40% from three-point range, and swiping more than a steal and a half per game. 

In other positive news for the Bucks, Larry Sanders has managed to stay out of prison, and has returned to his rebounding, shot blocking, and dunking ways.  This is a deep young team, and they have a legitimate chance to win a playoff series. 

Southeast Division

Atlanta

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The Hawks team which managed to make the playoffs last season is much stronger this season, as Al Horford returns to the squad after a (second) torn pectoral muscle injury ended his 2013-2014 campaign.  The Hawks have bigs in Horford and Millsap who cause problems for opposing coaches with their range and athleticism, and add to that mix Kyle Korver (shooting an absolutely mind-boggling 56% from the three-point line and averaging 1.7 points per shot, third in the NBA) and All-Star level point guard in Jeff Teague (top 10 in the NBA in points per shot and assists). 

I break you.

What makes this team so difficult to guard is that they have shooters at every position; even Russian mobster lookalike Pero Antic can stroke 3s, creating all kinds of driving lanes for Jeff Teague.  I fully expect this team to win a playoff series, but they are a superstar away from winning a championship.   

Charlotte

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Lance blows this year.

Poor Charlotte.  This team has regressed this year, as the squad misses the spacing, shooting, and passing that Josh McRoberts provided at the power forward spot.  This season’s iteration of the Hornets is dysfunctional; Lance Stephenson has not proven to be worthy of the hype, and is managing to average barely 10 points per game despite playing the lion’s share of the minutes at the shooting guard position.  Worse yet, Lance has been horribly inefficient; he is 78th (!) among all shooting guards, averaging an abysmal .94 points per shot.  This team has hope despite the sizable regression; Al Jefferson is still an absolute monster on the low post, and Kemba Walker may be the quickest point guard in the league.   That being said, this season has been nothing short of a disaster so far.

Miami

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

The Heat have been respectable so far this year; Luol Deng is doing the best he can in place of LeBron, Chris Bosh looks like a rejuvenated All-Star, and Mario Chalmers seems to be relaxed and improved without LeBron there to always remind him of how much he sucks.  Shabazz Napier has proven to be a solid contributor, and as Josh McRoberts’ health improves, I expect to see him get more minutes.  Assuming Wade gets healthy, this team could win one or even two rounds in the playoffs, but they are a piece away from being a true contender for the crown. 

Orlando

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

As usual, the Magic are bad.  That being said, the team’s future is bright if management can keep the core together.  Nik Vucevic has been excellent, averaging 19 points and 12 rebounds per game; Tobias Harris has been impressive as well, averaging 19 and 8.  Even Evan Fournier, the pride of Moroccan French basketball fans everywhere, has been good offensively, putting up more than 16 points per game.  At the end of the day however, this team is 2 years away from relevancy (that being said, Orlando is only two games out of the playoffs, disgracefully). 

Washington

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

It is always a good thing when a team's starting center is familiar with advanced weaponry.

My beloved Wizards field perhaps their most promising team of my lifetime.  Not since the days of C-Webb, Juwan, Rob Strickland, and Muresan have Washington fans had so much to be excited about (except for the Gilbert Arenas years before he tore his knee and brought guns to the locker room—people forget how amazing he was).  The Bullets/Wizards of my youth were a sad, mismanaged bunch; every bad management decision that could happen, did in fact happen.  The Wizards managed to trade away young Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond’s creaky bones, managed to waste lottery picks on Jan Vesely, Jarvis Hayes, Jared Jeffries, and overall #1 Kwame Brown, traded the pick that would have been Ricky Rubio, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, or Ty Lawson to rent Randy Foye and Mike Miller for a year, and almost had a gunfight in the locker room. 

This year’s team fields a stellar starting five; Gortat is a double-double machine, Nene is a talented and big-bodied bruiser who can embarrass even the best of defenders, Paul Pierce is a legend, Bradley Beal is one of the best young shooting guards in the game, and John Wall has elevated his play this year.  The bench too has been fortified, as Otto Porter has emerged as a legitimate player, and Kris Humphries and Rasual Butler have given the Wiz steady play.  

It will be a disappointing season for Washington if they don’t win at least two playoff series.  They have the pieces to be a real contender in the Eastern Conference this year; Wall isn’t a kid anymore, their frontcourt is solid, and they have shooters, leadership, and experience.   I would say they are one year away from title consideration, but making the Eastern Conference Finals is very much within their range of possibilities. 

Western Conference

Northwest Division

Portland

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

Poor Portland.  If they were in the East, they would be the odds-on favorite to go to the NBA Finals this season.  Lillard is a year older and wiser, Aldridge is still very much in his prime, Robin Lopez has shown himself to be a legitimate NBA starting center, and the bench is much improved.  That improvement has manifested itself in the signings of Chris “White John Salmons” (for his proclivity to shoot the ball every time he touches it) Kaman, and Steve “B. Rabbit” Blake (as Kobe Bryant dubbed him, after Eminem’s character in 8 Mile).  Kaman has been providing instant offense and rebounding off the bench; there aren’t many 7-footers with his offensive game; it is quite a luxury to have a player like that as a 6^th man.  Blake has been solid as a pass-first point guard coming off the bench, currently ranking 15^th in the NBA in assists per 48 minutes, and 12^th in assist-to-turnover ratio. 

As things stand in the Western Conference, it is doubtful that this team will make it to the Finals.  Despite the team’s gaudy 15-4 start, LeMarcus Aldridge is still a guy whose bread and butter is long two-pointers, and who doesn’t get to the line enough for someone who shoots as often as he does.  He is simply not good enough to be the best player on a team that wins a championship. 

Utah/Minnesota/Denver

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

There was a time not too many seasons ago, when Denver looked like a legitimate title contender.  They had Andre Iguodala, a healthy offensive machine in Danilo Gallinari, a quick and strong point guard in Ty Lawson, 10 guys who could play, and the best home court advantage in the league due to the altitude.  Oh, how times change.  Gallo is finally back from tearing his ACL (at least in form, but not in function), Iguodala is gone, but the depth and Ty Lawson remain.  In the East Denver could be a playoff team; in the West, unless Gallo miraculously heals, they will be on the outside looking in when the NBA’s second season starts. 

Utah is bad; they have some nice pieces in Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, but their guard play has been subpar, and the team generally seems young and immature.  Stockton and Malone are not coming out of that dressing room any time soon.

Minnesota is the Philadelphia of the Western Conference.  Between losing Kevin Love and the injuries to Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic, and Ricky Rubio, there are more people on this team who get carded buying alcohol than there are people who have played meaningful NBA minutes.  They will be horrible, but Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are both promising youngsters, and we have yet to find out if former #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett, obtained in the Kevin Love trade, is anything to write home about. 

OKC

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 1%

Kendrick ponders how he has managed to stay in the league for so many years without any discernible skills.

Hard to rate this team’s chances; now that Westbrook and Durant have come back from injuries, the Thunder will be a handful for anyone.  The question is, did OKC dig itself too deep of a hole to get out of?  Certainly if this team were in the Eastern Conference, a slow start wouldn’t matter, but in the West, where only 4 teams are more than a game below .500, the Thunder’s catch-up distance may be too great.  The race for the 8^th spot in the Western Conference will be between OKC (currently 7 games below .500), New Orleans and Denver (each one game below .500), Sacramento (1 game over .500), and Phoenix (currently 4 games above .500).  The other 7 spots are reserved for teams currently above .700, namely San Antonio, Memphis, Houston, Dallas, LAC, Portland, and Golden State. 

Southwest Division

San Antonio

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 40%

Yes we can!

The toughest team for the Spurs in the playoffs over the last half-decade has been the Thunder; they are too athletic, too young, and too long for the Spurs, or at least they were.  In the playoffs last year, with Serge Ibaka missing the first two games due to a calf injury, the Spurs won both contests and seemed on their way to a sweep.  When Ibaka made a Willis Reedesque return in game 3, the Thunder won two straight and tied the series against the Spurs 2-2.  Rightfully, San Antonio fans had terrible memories of the series they lost two seasons earlier to the Thunder, when they similarly went up 2-0 and seemed unstoppable, only to lose 4 straight to the upstarts from Oklahoma.  However the Spurs were not deterred, and won the next two contests (with Ibaka playing) to take the series 4-2.  The rest is history.  This year, it seems the Thunder won’t even make the playoffs, which is good news for the Spurs.  The rest of the Western Conference is even better than it was last year, strangely.  Houston, Portland, Memphis are 15-4, Golden State is 16-2, Dallas is 15-6, and the Clippers are “only” on pace for 59 wins.

The Spurs started slowly, but are starting to shake off the cobwebs.  Ginobili spent the offseason recovering from a broken leg, and has been uneven this season, but appears to be rounding into form.  The Spurs have already beaten Dallas, Golden State, Cleveland, Memphis, and the Clippers; their only loss by more than 5 points was in the third game of the season against the Rockets, and the team seems more coherent now than then.  The Spurs have won 9 of their last 10, with the sole defeat coming in a trap game against the Nets in New Jersey. 

The Spurs are still missing Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills, and Kawhi Leonard has been suffering from an eye injury which has limited his effectiveness.  The Spurs additionally continue to rest Ginobili and Duncan on the second night of back-to-back games despite the exigency of obtaining home court advantage in the playoffs. Tony Parker’s recently tweaked hamstring would be cause for concern for most teams, but the Spurs offense runs like a Rolex and won’t miss many beats without the blur from France.   In sum, the Spurs will keep rumbling along even with their backups, and will hope that their main cogs are healthy for the playoffs.  If they are, San Antonio will likely hoist a 6^th championship banner to the rafters in June.

Houston

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 3%

The look of a champion?

I have a hard time viewing Houston as a serious title contender.  I don’t care what Houston’s record is, I just don’t see a team starring James Harden, one of the worst defensive players in basketball, winning a title.  Dwight Howard’s knee has been acting up as well, and without him, this team has no chance to win the championship.  On the other hand, assuming Howard’s knee holds up, this team features two GREAT defenders in Howard and Patrick Beverley, an above average defender and shooter in Trevor Ariza, and quality role players in Jason Terry and Montiejunas. 

A big problem for the Rockets in the playoffs is that teams adjust to Harden’s foul-seeking ways, as do referees.  The absurd calls he gets in the regular season, when he just throws himself into defenders and initiates contact, do not exist to the same degree in the playoffs.  Similarly, opposing defenders become more adept at showing the referees that they aren’t doing anything to Harden except backing away. 

Dallas

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 4%

Seeing Tyson Chandler back on the Mavericks makes it hard not to wonder what if.  What if Mark Cuban had bitten the bullet, re-signed Chandler, and paid the luxury tax.  Would the Mavericks have won another title?  We will never know.  What we do know is that this may be the best offensive team in the NBA.  Between Dirk commanding double teams from every spot on the floor, Monta Ellis’ speed, handle and finishing ability, and newly-added Chandler Parsons’ ability to shoot, pass, and finish, the Mavericks give opposing defenses no room to rest.  With Tyson Chandler and Brandon Wright seemingly finishing everything (both shooting absurdly over 70% from the field!), and with quality point guard play from the three-headed monster of Devin Harris, J.J. Barea, and Jameer Nelson, the Mavericks have a wealth of offensive talent.  This team gave the Spurs their hardest series in the playoffs last year, and this year’s version of Dallas is much improved. 

Memphis

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 4%

I must confess that after my beloved Wizards and Ginobili and friends, this is my favorite team in the Association.  Marc Gasol has further established himself as the best center in the game.  He has always been an excellent passer and defender, but this year he has become a more aggressive offensive player as well.  The question is, does the improvement in Gasol’s game provide enough of a boost to help the Grizzlies finally get by the Spurs?  Last year in the playoffs, the NBA suspended Gasol’s partner in crime, Zach Randolph, for the decisive game 7 against the Thunder.  Conspiracy theorists say that the league suspended Randolph so as to preserve the NBA’s wet dream of a Durant vs LeBron Finals rematch.  If Randolph had played, I suspect the Grizzlies would have beaten the Thunder.  Alas, what if doesn’t change reality.  As it currently stands, Memphis’ reality is something to be envied. 

Incidental contact, clearly.

This team has the best big man combination in the game, an elite wing defender in Tony Allen, and a quality starting point guard in Mike Conley.  The question facing this team is whether the wing play of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Quincy Pondexter, Vince Carter’s corpse, and that of Tayshaun Prince will be enough to overcome the other wings in the Western Conference.  In whom would you place your trust:  Ginobili and Leonard or Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter?  Tayshaun and Vince or Iguodala and Klay Thompson?  Any two Memphis wings against Harden and Ariza?  Monta Ellis and Parsons?  Durant and anyone?  Wesley Matthews and the French Swiss army knife, Nic Batum?  Among the 7 Western Conference teams above .700, only the Clippers’ wings are as mediocre as those of Memphis.  Time will tell if this lack of exceptional play on the outside will prevent Memphis from going from a very good team to a great one. 

New Orleans

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Let me get this down on e-paper: Anthony Davis is the best basketball player alive not named LeBron James, at least until we know if Kevin Durant is 100% back from injury.  He deserves to be MVP this year, and it isn’t close.  He leads the NBA in PER, leads the league in blocks AND steals, and is third in points per game and sixth in rebounds.  Otherwise, this team is mediocre.  Tyreke Evans, for all his ball skills, always seems to be on bad teams, and at some point there is no point in denying that he is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.  Eric Gordon was on his way to being a star before a knee injury took away his athleticism, and despite several years of rehab, he is not what he was, and doesn’t appear that he will ever return to his previous form.   Jrue Holiday is a solid starting point guard and Omer Asik is a great rebounder and defender, but the team just seems to be lacking something.  Ryan Anderson is shooting a meager 33% from 3, down from his career mark of 38.3%.  Davis’ singular greatness has kept this team from the depths of despair.  There aren’t many players in the history of the game who have his combination of size, athleticism, ball skills, defensive intensity, and feel for the game.  He is more important to his team than any other player in the league.  Unfortunately, it is not enough for this group of ill-fitting pieces. 

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

Karma.

I will be honest: I have really enjoyed watching Kobe’s team suck.  He is one of the most overrated players in NBA history, fortunate to have played with some of the best bigs in NBA history at their absolute primes, and the beneficiary of some questionable officiating and absolutely absurd collapses.  Between Shaq (who, in his prime was one of the 5 best players of all-time), Gasol (who, let’s not forget, should never have been with the Lakers, and wound up on the team due to Memphis’ absolutely absurd trade of Pau for Kwame Brown), the screwjob in Sacramento when the referees blatantly cheated to give the Lakers a victory they did not deserve, and Portland’s epic meltdown, Kobe should probably have one title (to say nothing of Derek Fisher’s game-winner against the Spurs).  Instead, he has 5, and idiots like to say he is something like Michael Jordan.  Wrong.  He is not even in the same stratosphere as Jordan.  Kobe is a guy who alienates all his teammates, with whom nobody wants to play, a guy who cares nothing at all about his team’s success, and shoots his team out of game after game. 

Kobe’s scoring average may be exceptionally high this season, but he is shooting only 39% and taking 22 shots a game (the highest total in the league by 3 shots per game), many of those shots being long, well-defended fade away jumpers.   He is the quintessential volume scorer; the defanged, self-proclaimed Black Mamba is averaging an abysmal 1.15 points per shot, which ranks him 45rd in the NBA….among shooting guards! 

Los Angeles Clippers

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 5%

The Clippers have 2 of the best 10 players in the league; that alone makes them contenders.  The supporting cast was bolstered this offseason with the addition of Spencer Hawes, who provides needed spacing and shooting from the center position.  The team’s weaknesses are well known; their wing players are mediocre, DeAndre Jordan can’t shoot from more than 4 feet away from the basket or make free throws, and Chris Paul doesn’t seem to have the Isiah (not a misspelling) Thomas ability to take over playoff games from the point guard position.  Blake Griffin is putting up 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, but in the playoffs, when there is less fast breaking, his half court game will be put to the test (again).  Unless he can go from top 10 to top 3, this team won’t win a title. 

Phoenix

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

This is a fun team to watch, but there is clearly tension in the desert.  The team’s 3 best players, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas, all play the same position.  There simply isn’t enough ball to go around.  Gerald Green can jump out of the gym and shoots lots of corner 3s, but otherwise provides nothing.  Miles Plumlee is a good rebounder and defender who can similarly jump out of the gym, but he is limited.  The Morris twins are solid contributors, but neither will ever be an All-Star.   This team’s likely result is a first round exit, followed by the departure of one of their three point guards in the offseason. 

Sacramento Kings

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 0%

DeMarcus Cousins has gone from an overly emotional young man who can play to a great player who is a bit emotional.  That is an important distinction.  His maturation has led this team to the precipice of a playoff berth, no small feat in the uber-competitive Western Conference.  He is third in the NBA in PER, and has turned into the dominant bull that many thought he was capable of becoming.  Rudy Gay has played better than expected this year; he has shed his volume shooter moniker, and is shooting a very respectable 46.3% from the field.  The loss of Isaiah Thomas hasn’t hurt this team much, it seems.  Darren Collison has been a quality replacement, and Ben McLemore has turned into a legitimate NBA rotation player.  Omri Casspi (SHALOM!!) has returned to his ancestral homeland of Sacramento and has delivered stellar bench play; the team would be wise to give him and fellow stellar sub Carl “The Truth” Landry more minutes.  Unfortunately for this team, the absolute ceiling on how far they can go is first round defeat.  Don’t hang your heads though, Sacramento fans, as the Kings are definitely on the upswing.

Golden State Warriors

Chances of winning the 2015 championship: 10%

This team has it all.  Steph Curry has morphed into a truly great player; a guy who can shoot off the dribble from anywhere on the court, who has also turned into a halfway decent defender and a passer with above-average floor vision.  His shooting is so off the charts that he finds himself being run off the three-point line and into the paint quite frequently.  Luckily for the Warriors, Curry has developed a nice in between game, and is a clever finisher at the rim.  Klay Thompson has gotten more consistent with age; the days of him scoring 25 one game and 7 the next game seem a thing of the past.  Harrison Barnes has settled into his role of being a hyper-athletic shooter and defender quite nicely; Draymond Green’s ascension to starting power forward while David Lee has been injured has proved most successful; he gives the team a physical, defensive presence, and a floor spacer; a rare combination indeed.  The angry Australian, Andrew Bogut, provides a physical presence, a rim protector (fourth in the league in blocks), an excellent rebounder (14^th in the league in rebounds), and a guy who sets some of the meanest screens in the Association. 

When David Lee comes back to fill a 6^th man role (something he isn’t accustomed to—this is a guy who has averaged 18 points and 9 rebounds 4 different seasons), with former All-Star Andre Iguodala as the 7^th man and passing wizard Shaun Livingston at the backup point guard, this team will be downright scary.  All that being said, I still believe this team is a year away.  Bogut is their only true big man, and if he gets into foul trouble, the likes of Marreese Speights will have to guard Tim Duncan and Marc Gasol.  Additionally, the Warriors are still a bit too reliant on Steph Curry’s three-point shootings.  In the playoffs the openings get smaller, and the game becomes much more physical.  As great as Curry is, he is only about 175 pounds, and will be on the receiving end of a constant pounding from bigger defenders.  What will this team turn to if the threes don’t fall?  Time will tell. 

Jerusalem

Jerusalem

Gazan militants pass out desserts to celebrate the murder of 4 Jews in West Jerusalem

I got home from the Seychelles last night; all was right with the world, more or less.  This morning I woke up intending to finish a blog post I started several weeks ago about my first true love, the NBA.  I got to the office, sat down for breakfast, and saw on television that 2 Palestinians had gone into a synagogue in West Jerusalem with knives, axes, and a gun, and murdered 4 rabbis, before being themselves killed by security forces.  I was crestfallen; not because violence in Israel is so unusual, but because the nature of the attack was so heinous, and because I know that such incidents never have any impact on the policies of the Israel-haters of Europe.  Perhaps more than anything else, today’s attack made me realize how alone Israel is, and how it has lost the PR battle in most countries on Earth, save America, Canada, and a few others. 

In America itself, undoubtedly Israel’s most important ally, the “unbreakable bond” between the two countries is frayed.  Barack Obama, a bumbling, incoherent mess of a commander in chief (at least as it pertains to foreign policy—his domestic initiatives have been more courageous, more successful, and more reasoned), has clashed ad nauseum with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prickly, arrogant, myopic prime minister.   Netanyahu thinks Obama is incredibly arrogant, naïve, and inexpert in the art of Middle Eastern peacemaking/war making, while Obama thinks that he can dictate to Netanyahu what Israel’s best interests are. 

Whether Obama has Israel’s best interests at heart is up for debate.  On the one hand, he says the right things; he speaks with reverence of the unbreakable (or is it unshakeable? unfakeable?) bond between the two countries, he hosts Passover Seders, he hosts Jewish American History Month receptions, he laid a wreath at Herzl’s grave on a brief trip to Israel last year, etc.  On the other hand, one gets the distinct impression that he is doing these things because he is supposed to, not because he has any particular inclination towards Israel.  Of course, there is no requirement that anyone have a fondness for Israel, but campaigning to be president of the United States, it is understood that both candidates will support the Jewish state, surrounded by fanatics, dictators, and terrorists.  In recent years however, as the intellectually dishonest and anti-Semitic BDS (boycott, divestment, and sanctions) movement has gained ground amongst naïve, dumb, overly empowered, ideological college students (almost always very far left-leaning, except for Muslims and white supremacists), and anti-Israel sentiment has trickled into mainstream discourse thanks to Jon Stewart (both courageous and a shmuck for trying to play the role of the “intellectually honest newsman who asks the tough questions and fights for the underdog” (except when it comes to issues that his left-leaning base feels uncomfortable discussing---uncomfortable statistics about Islam (see Maher, Bill), violent crime in America, Arab anti-Semitism and calls for the destruction of Israel (which, logically, would make the idea of Israel ceding territory to the Palestinian “Authority” seem worthless, if the entire Arab world intends to destroy Israel even if a peace deal were ever to be signed)), etc., Israel has gone from apolitical to an issue on which Republicans can gain Jewish votes (Jews in America vote overwhelmingly Democratic).  Jews haven’t forgotten how Obama had the Department of Defense halt ammunition shipments to Israel during its most recent war with Hamas, nor the fact that Obama had one of his aides call Netanyahu a chickenshit, nor the fact that Obama has snubbed Bibi on more than one occasion.  To be fair, Obama’s enmity for Netanyahu is not undeserved; Bibi did everything short of waving a Mitt Romney campaign posted in front of the Knesset last election, he constantly announces new settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank (including embarrassing Joe Biden by announcing such a plan while Biden was in Israel), and has consistently tried to undermine and work around Obama by going directly to Congress; one gets the sense that Bibi actually thinks he has a better understanding of American politics than does Mr. Obama (and given the midterm election results, maybe he is right). 

Netanyahu’s continuous proclamations of the right of Israeli Jews to build in East Jerusalem have triggered the hurling of invectives toward the Jewish state by Obama and his cohorts, including statements which inevitably draw responses from Netanyahu and friends.  The Likudniks and those even further right (like Naftali Bennett) bash the American president for not understanding the Middle East, for being soft on Hamas, soft on Holocaust denier Mahmoud Abbas and his incitement against Jews and Israel, etc.  They have a point, just as Obama has a point about settlement building being deleterious for the prospects of the two-state solution (of course in a perfect world, the two states would be Israel up until the Jordan River, and then Palestine on the other side of the Jordan River and through so-called “Jordan”, a state which has no reason to exist and has a Palestinian majority to boot, but I digress—such pragmatic discussions are not allowed in liberal discourse, as they threaten the Arab view of what the Middle East should look like, which of course includes as many hostile states on Israel’s borders as possible, and the constant demand of Israel to give up territory, with the eventual goal of one day invading Israel and finishing what they failed to do in 1948, 1967, and 1973).  All this tit for tat inevitably reaches the topic of the Temple Mount/al Aqsa Mosque. 

Religiously speaking, the Temple Mount is the holiest site in Judaism, surpassing even the Wailing Wall and Katz’s Delicatessen on 53^rd Street.  The Temple Mount was the site where Solomon built his first temple (which was destroyed) and Herod built his temple, and upon whose ruins (after Rome sacked Jerusalem during the last period of Italian military competence in 70 AD) the followers of Mohammed built a mosque.  According to rabbinical guidelines, Jews are not supposed to pray at the Temple Mount, because it is too holy.  This position suits Muslims fine, because they are super sensitive when it comes to Jewish history, sovereignty, and religious rights in Jerusalem (until the 1967 war and the “occupation” of East Jerusalem by Israeli forces, “Jordan” had control over the Western Wall and its plaza, and refused to let Jews pray there, instead using the plaza in front of the Western Wall as a place for animals to graze and defecate, in a sign of Islam’s tolerance towards Judaism). 

Despite the rabbinical edicts against Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, many nationalist Israeli politicians view the “Muslim only” prayer rules of the Temple Mount to be degrading, and vow to change the status quo.  This status quo should not be understood as limited only to the Temple Mount, but rather represents a microcosm of East Jerusalem and the West Bank.  Because of both the religious furor of many Palestinians, and because of their nationalistic desire, Jewish prayer and Jewish politicians on the Temple Mount represent both an insult and a serious encroachment.   Such an encroachment has been met with violence and renewed calls for a third intifada (with Hamas funding the young men involved in rioting and stone throwing). 

One does not need to spend much time searching online to understand the kind of hateful language and homicidal desires that many Palestinian media outlets spew towards Israel and Jews, nor is it hard to understand how that hatred leads to violence.  Similarly, one does not need to live in the West Bank to understand how settlers’ taking of water, land, and roads of Palestinians causes fear, hopelessness, rage, and violence.  The constant arrests, police raids in the middle of the night, settler violence, and Israeli army presence make Palestinians feel as though they are second-class citizens at best in their own land.  Such a situation is not tenable. 

Recently, prompted by Holocaust denier Mahmoud Abbas’ religious incitement, and Netanyahu’s moves to take more chunks of Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem (therein hindering the aspirations of a contiguous Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital), Palestinians have started rioting and undertaking a grass-roots intifada, mainly in Jerusalem.  There have been several recent attacks in which Palestinians drove cars into crowds of pedestrians; there have been random stabbings, a police shooting of an Arab Israeli man who approached a police car with a knife, the disputed suicide of a bus driver, and today, worst of all, there was a mass murder at a synagogue in West Jerusalem.  The fact that the homicides today occurred in West Jerusalem rather than East Jerusalem matters.  If West Jerusalem is considered a legitimate target, it reinforces the idea among cynical Jews that the Palestinians do not want peace, period, as there is no international dispute as to the status of West Jerusalem (it is part of Israel).  The synagogue attack also creates a situation in which the lives of Israeli Arabs will become more perilous.  Just last week an Israeli Jewish man, driving through an Arab Israeli town, was pulled out of his car and almost lynched before being rescued by several Arab residents of the town.  If Israeli Jews feel that Arab Israelis as a whole are a tabuur alkhaamis (5^th column), the entire country could well end up in a sectarian civil war lite, with many Arab Israelis abandoning their homes, as they did in 1948, and as Jewish Arabs did in the 1940s, 1950s, and beyond, when 1 million Jewish Arabs fled their homelands to avoid death, harassment, and fear.  This would be a terrible result, as Israel’s multiculturalism is one of the factors that makes it such a vibrant place in which to live.  Tel Aviv is the only place I know of in which religious Jews, religious Muslims, half-naked clubgoers, and three-quarters naked runners constantly bump shoulders.  Unless something is done soon to curb the cycle of violence, settlements, incitement and hatred in Jerusalem, Israel will be facing a third intifada, this one less predictable for all actors involved. 

Requiem For Revenge

This week an army of Islamic extremists too crazy for al-Qaeda conquered large swaths of Iraq, executing hundreds of people in the process.  In neighboring Syria, a civil war which has taken the lives of hundreds of thousands of people rages on.  In Africa, the UN just released a report showing that 4 million people in South Sudan face famine.  Several days ago in Ukraine, a military plane was shot down, killing 49 people.   In our own amazing, chaotic nation, the rate of youth unemployment is over 13% (which doesn't include those who are in school, nor those who have given up searching), costing the country $25 billion annually and leading to an entire generation of lost souls with massive student debts that they cannot escape nor hope to pay back.  Yet last night, after watching the Spurs beat the brains out of the Miami Heat, I was ebullient.  Why?

Sports do not matter.  Sports are there for us to ignore the pain, monotony, failure, and heartbreak of our fleeting existence.  Through watching millionaire athletes playing a child's game, we leave our problems behind for several hours and escape to a suspended reality in which all that matters is whether or not an orange ball goes into a hole 10 feet off the ground.  It is silly to think that seeing Manu Ginobili dunk on Chris Bosh's very soul would be enough to placate me, yet last night, that is exactly what happened.

The San Antonio Spurs represent the best that sports has to offer, if we choose to view sports as a life metaphor.  A team and an organization that utilizes a style based on unselfishness, commitment, individual development, synergy, and teamwork, last night beat a team whose system was to buy the best players on the market and put them together.  It would be an insulting oversimplification to both teams to suggest that teamwork overcame talent last night; rather, a deep and talented team playing as one organic unit, overcame (and thoroughly humiliated) a group of talented individuals who did not have the same continuity or depth of talent.  This depth and continuity disparity was due to the way in which the teams were constructed; the Spurs were built through drafting and international scouting, with players nurtured in an environment which left them either improving or sent out of town.  Meanwhile the Heat were "built" via signing 3 max-level players to slightly less than the max simultaneously, in a way to ensure that LeBron could never whine about having to win a championship by himself.

MJ 6-6 in Finals.  LBJ 2-5 in Finals.

The Heat's strategy was an unquestionable success; they won two titles in four seasons and made it to the NBA Finals all four times (granted, they play in the Eastern Conference).  That being said, the staying power of the Heat remains a question; there is no reason to suspect Miami players will be loyal the way the Spurs organization has been able to keep great players in the Alamo, despite the small market nature of the town.  David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are all Hall of Famers who spent/are spending their entire careers in a quiet city near the border with Mexico.  That is not by chance; the organization has figured out a way to cultivate, augment, and keep its talent, despite the lure of brighter lights in other, bigger cities.

More than merely an example of teamwork and coherence, the Spurs' victory last night was a testament to our love of revenge, the most primal of instincts.  San Antonio displayed a singleminded focus all season, and that focus was clear: destroy the Heat.  That they did.  The spirit and courage required to suffer the most devastating of losses, and then rise up and regain the championship, says so much more about the Spurs character than their success alone.

Last season for the first time in his career, Manu Ginobili seemed to go from a playmaker extraordinaire to a washed-up, beaten-up, turnover machine.  He seriously considered retirement after his (generally) poor playoff performance.  Instead, he took the summer off from basketball for the first time in years, staying in the weight room instead of on the hardwood, allowing his hamstrings to heal from multiple pulls last season.  This year he returned in far better form, and elevated his level of play in the playoffs.

GAOAT (Greatest Australian of All-Time)

Patty Mills similarly elevated his game this season, going from Popovich's doghouse for being chronically out of shape, to a defensive whir and a devastating three-point shooter.  His foot speed, tenacity, and ball pressure gave Miami fits, as the Aussie drew multiple offensive fouls on the Heat.  On the other end, Mills proved to be a force of nature, hitting 5 3-pointers and continually keeping Miami far away from striking range.  He was, undoubtedly, the best player on the court in the third period last night.  The first half however belonged to the Argentine.

Last night Popovich brought Ginobili in earlier than usual, and Manu rewarded his coach by singlehandledly saving the game from getting out of hand. The Spurs were down 22-6 when Ginobili came in; he quickly converted a three-point play, hit a three-pointer, drew an offensive foul, threw a perfect entry pass to Tim Duncan to draw a foul, and stymied the Heat's momentum.  From then on, it seemed as though victory became inevitable for San Antonio.  After Ginobili's dunk on Bosh to cap a remarkable 14-0 run, the Argentine followed up with an absurd step-back three-pointer, further deflating Miami.  The Spurs turned what had been a 16 point deficit into a 7 point lead at the half.  In the third quarter, behind an array of 3 pointers (especially from the incredible Patty Mills who had 14 in the period), the Spurs firmly closed the door on any thoughts the Heat had about trying to win the game.  All the while Tony Parker and Danny Green (like Dwayne Wade) were entirely MIA, pun intended.

The period of greatness anchored by David Robinson and Tim Duncan started in 1989.  Amazing. 

Therein lies the aforementioned difference between the two teams: depth.  Parker starting 0-10 from the field had no impact on the game; Wade playing terribly, by contrast, did have an effect.  It was hilarious to watch Ginobili "guard" Wade; he basically stood 10 feet away from the future Hall of Famer from Marquette and the Spurs played 5 on 4 defense, daring Wade to shoot.  LeBron was the best player on the floor in the first quarter; Ginobili was the best player in the second quarter, Mills was in the third quarter, and Parker was in the fourth quarter.  None of those three Spurs were likely even among the top 3 Spurs in Finals MVP voting, that honor going to Kawhi Leonard (and presumably followed by Duncan and Boris "French Magic Johnson" Diaw).

The future is hard to predict in sports, as in real life.  Who knows if we will ever see these two teams square off in the Finals again; it is possible that LeBron could opt out and bolt Miami to another city.  Duncan and Ginobili could retire or get injured.  Free agents Patty Mills and Boris Diaw could leave San Antonio for financially greener pastures.  Yet for right now, in this moment in time, those questions can wait.  At this time we celebrate courage, hope, grit and redemption. Perhaps that is a good enough reason to watch sports.   

GINOBILIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He's still got it.

More tomorrow!

Rampant Speculation: A Collaborative Approach to the Game of Thrones Season Finale

In honor of the season finale of the greatest show of all-time, J4G and site contributor datgirlcshelle broke down the storylines to look forward to tonight.  

J4G: Do you think Tyrion is going to die this episode?  If no, why not/how will he evade?

datgirlcshelle: So we all know the GRRM does not believe in sacred lambs. He prefers to sacrifice lambs at the slaughter house.  Knowing this, it would be easy to predict that Tyrion dies.  I think there's too much at play with the other characters for that to happen though.  I think the best way to look at Game of Thrones (and not have your feelings spoiled and thrown out with those month old leftovers you finally decided to take out of the refrigerator) is to think about what machinations a character can add to securing the throne.  In Prince Oberyn's case, his sole purpose was revenge.  His motive was too short-sighted to survive the game.  Much like Rob, though he was charismatic, his pursuit of what he considered justice did not let him see the long game.

 I think because Tyrion can read the other characters (arguably even Little Finger), he can adjust his value to meet the needs of a character most likely to help him.  Maybe.  It might be wishful thinking, but Tyrion's head seems safe to me for now. 

Q: In the last episode, we saw the Black Brothers successfully hold the Wall.... for a night. We also saw a lot of their weaknesses. Many couldn't handle the weaponry and at one point I saw a Black Brother jump on a Thenn's back and summarily get sliced through with a battle axe.  Do you think they will stand a chance in the next round?  If so, what do you think will change at Castle Black? Who will be the main players?

J4G: A good question you posit, re: the Night's Watch (btw, is Black Brothers a term from the books or did you make that up?).  My feeling is this: we have barely seen Mance Rayder at all over the course of the show, so it feels illogical that he would all of a sudden become the one dude to crack the Wall.  That being said, we had barely seen the Mountain, yet he killed Oberyn (I'm still not over that, btw).  So basically, the normal rules of television don't apply to GRRM.  He doesn't give a fuck about your feelings, your hopes, your dreams, or your favorite characters.  He punishes characters for making mistakes (see Stark, Ned, Stark, Robb, Martel, Oberin, Baratheon, Joffrey, et al), and there is no reason to think the Night's Watchmen will be any less screwed than anyone else.  They do have the strategic advantage of that massive buzz saw which swings across the wall, but if 100,000 wildlings come to the front gate, it is all over.  

We know John Snow (who, by the way, knows nothing) is going to find Mance (without his sword, smh), and we know Mance is a tricky bastard who will likely not be fooled again by Ned's bastard.  John thinks he will just get Mance in a room alone and kill him.  I think John is going to die this episode, and that without him, the Night's Watch will crumble like the Miami Heat in home games against the Spurs.  Perhaps the Lannisters will send reinforcements from King's Landing, but as of now, the Night's Watch seems on the verge of defeat.  I in fact am going to predict that not only will John die, but that the wildlings will kill everyone at Castle Black before the end of the episode.

Speaking of killing, one of the best sequences of the season (and frankly in the history of the show) came when Lil Finger told Sansa why he helped her, said that in a different world she would have been his daughter, then kissed her while crazy ass Lysa watched.  When Baelysh subsequently stopped Lysa from throwing Sansa down the sky door then told her he loved her sister and pushed her to her own certain death, I think everyone watching felt good (only on this show do we feel good when someone gets thrown 1000 feet down a mountain).  Now that the Hound and Arya are at the Erie, what do you think is going to happen?  Are we looking at a reunion?   

datgirlcshelle: Well, first I'd like to say that I would have felt better had Sansa pushed Lysa out the door.  I'm a little perturbed that she is the only one that doesn't have blood on her hands (except for accidentally setting up Ned to die).  That said, I'm glad she finally got some backbone (and I do mean SOME with her simple self).  I'm not sure a reunion will happen the the Stark sisters. The Hound seems like the type to wander elsewhere and I don't see Arya leaving his side any time soon.  Also, no one is supposed to know that Sansa is in the Vale except the Council, Little Finger and Robin.  Arya has no reason to believe her sister if there.  Likewise, Sansa would have no clue Ayra is outside.  Barring a gossip-girlesque gate soldier telling either sister about the arrival, I see this as being a Missed Connection of the Jon Snow/Bran Stark nature.  I do hope The Hound and Brienne meet up eventually.  I'd like to see that go down. 

Let's head back to King's Landing.  How do you think Dorne will respond to the death of Prince Oberyn?  What, if anything, can Tywin do to prepare for a response?

J4G: Don't forget that Sansa's dumb ass also caused the death of her dire wolf, Lady (RIP), when she lied about what happened between Joffrey, Arya, Arya's dire wolf, and the butcher's son.  

As it pertains to Dorne, it is an important question.  We have to remember that Cersei/Jaime's daughter Myrcella is in Dorne, and although she seems sweet, she is still a Lannister.  There was a scene earlier this season in which Tywin asked Orberyn to join the Small Council, citing Dorne's military prowess (he said it was the only of the Seven Kingdoms to resist the Targaeryns and their dragons.  Thus we can extrapolate that Dorne is not to be trifled with, and losing one of their princes would certainly constitute a big deal.  Given that Oberyn himself (a famed warrior and prince) came to avenge his sister, we can assume that the response to losing another member of the royal family will be serious.  I think Myrcella is a goner.  I hope Dorne goes in hard against the Lannisters.

As it pertains to Tywin, I am not really sure what he can do.  Myrcella is already there, and the Martell family hates the Lannisters to death.  If he can't buy them off, there is nothing Tywin really can do, except (inshallah) lose a granddaughter. 

Speaking of people who hate the Lannisters, what do you think will happen with Stannis' attempt to get the Iron Throne?  Last time we saw him, he had successfully (well, more the Onion Knight than Stannis himself) convinced the Bank of Bravos to give him money to go take King's Landing.  Do you think he will be back in King's Landing soon?

datgirlcshelle: I think Stannis has a ways to go before heading to King's Landing again.  I know he has bought the pirates and possibly more sell swords along with more ships, but I don't see his strategy other than having the Red Witch and a prayer.  Also he needs to figure out how he's going to deal with having his wife/family and his side chick on a long boat trip.  Pimpin can't be that easy and his wife is about 2 steps from the edge of sanity.  Stannis needs to get all of his life in order before we see him attack the crown again.  I also wonder how he plans to enter King's Landing. Surely not the way he came the first time.

Let's talk about the Throne.  We know the players who are pursuing it, but, maybe with the exception of the Lannister family, we don't know what each would do with it given the chance to sit the Throne.  How do you picture Westoros under Little Finger?  Stannis?  Dany?

J4G: As for Lil Finger, that is a scary thought, no?  He is super clever, merciless, unscrupulous, and self-made.  Maybe he would actually be good for the realm.  He kind of hates the Lannisters, which I respect, he knows how to build alliances, and his business savvy developed as a pimp would certain be useful for running the Seven Kingdoms.  

Stannis would bring Sharia law to Westeros.  We know from what he did to the Onion Knight that he is serious about justice.  He doesn't seem to be an easily corruptible type; let's not forget that during the siege of Blackwater Bay, Cersei was going to kill herself because she didn't think she would be able to seduce Stannis.   His reliance on witchcraft is slightly troubling; it would be interesting to see how the red priestess would impact any future reign.  Would he ban the other gods and make everyone worship the God of Light?  Who knows.

We know from Dany's moniker of "breaker of chains" how she feels about slavery and injustice.  That in and of itself doesn't mean she would be a just queen, but she has been ruling in Mereen, and showed some pragmatism dealing with the burial of the crucified master whose son wanted to bury his father.  Now that she is without Sir Jorah, I am not sure if her pragmatism will remain.  He was her closest advisor for a reason.  If she were to get to King's Landing, she would probably have to murder thousands of people to take the city, and she would likely be fine with that, as she believes in the righteousness of her cause.

Speaking of Dany, what do you think is in store for her in the season finale?  She is sans Sir Jorah, has a big army, and is getting a taste of the queen life.  Do you think she will cross the Narrow Sea?  How do you think the loss of Sir Jorah will effect her efficacy?  

datgirlcshelle: I guess a multi-party system isn't any better than a two party system when all the choices suck.

On Dany: Wee little old Dany.  She's getting too big for her britches... or whatever gown she wears now.  Pragmatism isn't her strong suit.  Jorah balanced her rashness, and even then, she barely listened to him.  Now she has a former King's guard ( who wasn't banished and can trade up any time), a translator, an unsullied who is little more than a yes man, and a foolish sell sword with a hankering for adventure on her advisory committee.  On top of that, she can't seem to manage the cities that she "freed".  She was shortsighted in the long-term care of the freed people who weren't marching with her, and thus put them in arguably more danger, facing the resentment and bitter wrath of the remaining noble people.  Her mid-level management staff choices are pretty questionable too.  Pitting Jorah against Daario?  NO, girl! Perhaps the only good thing to come from Jorah's dismissal is that Daario wasn't there to make it worse, and the possible backlash of having 2 advisers vying for Dany's attention/trust/favor MIGHT not happen. Sending the son of the nobleman that was crucified as an ambassador?  NO, girl! I need Dany to understand that she is NOT the only one who can plot a coup.  For all of Dany's potential greatness, she's acting like the teen queen that she is.

Dany barely has a grasp over Mereen and can't really control her dragons.  She's not crossing the Narrow Sea.  Someone will have to bring the war to her cause she has 99 problems and she's not trying to make an offensive attack on King's Landing one.