Round 1 recap and Round 2 preview
The Nets v Bulls series ended yesterday, after 7 grueling games of Chicago fighting through a myriad of injuries (Hinrich with a pulled calf muscle, Luol Deng on the verge of death, in and out of the ER, Noah with plantar fasciatis, and Derrick Rose with a yeast infection), and New Jersey fighting through their own lack of interest.
The series featured some great characters--starting with Reggie Evans, of whom Charles Barkley (a guy not shy about starting a fight) said "that's the kind of guy, if he insults your mama, just let it go the first time". Evans looks like he should be UFC heavyweight champion or in jail, or both. I would describe him as Zach Randolph on steroids, plus crazy
pills, minus any basketball-related skills.
Then we have the case of Andray Blatche, who, along with JaVale McGee, formed the dumbest front court tandem in the history of the NBA. Andray Blatche is notorious in DC for his lack of effort, his terrible defense, his stupidity, constantly turning the ball over, being softer than 2-ply toilet paper, and appointing himself as
captain of the Wizards, even though he has the leadership skills of a doorknob.
The thing about Blatche is, despite all his shortcomings, he has very good offensive skills for a big man *waits to be struck by lightning*, and is certainly the Nets' best offensive big after Brook Lopez. Watching game 7, I heard Blatche complimented more by the announcers in 4 minutes than I had heard him complimented combined in his 7 or so years in DC, when he was (deservedly) subject to constant
booing for his lackadaisical (at best) effort. In fact, in all my years, I have never seen a player more universally reviled by his own fanbase; hell, I used to go to Wiz games just to boo Blatche.
Regardless, Blatche yesterday displayed both his flashes of
quality (brilliance would be a large stretch), and his stupidity, lack of passion, lack of toughness, and lack of defensive ability. His missed
assignments (specifically 1:30 mark of the video, but really anywhere there is a Bulls' offensive rebound, Blatche is likely nearby, doing nothing) and unwillingness to play
hard were key in allowing the Bulls to win.
Joe Johnson, the 120 million dollar man, was clearly hobbled by a bout of plantar fasciatis, and was rendered mostly useless. The Bulls were led by Jo Noah, whose heart, toughness, hustle, and ability to both knock down open jumpers and put the ball on the floor was the difference (on an unrelated note, it is hard to watch Noah or Horford having success in the NBA and not think of Greg Oden, who made them both look like small children when they played against each other in the NCAA title game). Also of import to the Bulls' victory was Marco Bellinelli, who showed a nice handle, good floor vision coming off the pick and roll, and great range on his jumper. Without Hinrich and Deng (and Rose), there was no reason for the Nets to lose, but it is better for basketball fans that such an apathetic outfit has been eliminated; the upcoming Bulls-Heat series will be intense, rough, and great to watch.
The Grizzlies vs Clippers series was my favorite of the first round. Gasol and Z-Bo have 14 inches of vertical leap combined, but both can really play the game. On the other side, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan can each jump out of the gym, and do little else. The Clippers were clearly the darling of the NBA, what with Blake's amazing dunks and the crossover success of both Griffin and Chris Paul. Blake Griffin at this point is actually a better pitchman than basketball player. He has the body of Lebron, but only the skill level of Jo Noah, minus the passion and toughness and defensive presence. Jordan is far worse--his only legitimate skill is his ability to dunk; he is a terrible liability on the foul line and nowhere near as good as he looks like he should be.
This series was a testimony to the difference between upside and talent. Scouts drool over those players with incredible physical ability who are terrible at basketball, but could conceivably become great at basketball. Gasol and Zach are not the physical equals of Jordan and Blake, but they are just so much better at their craft.
The most intriguing matchup in the series was between Chris Paul and Mike Conley. The former is a great player, albeit one who is a bit overrated and never won anything, while the latter is on the verge of becoming a true star--he has the defense, the handle, the athleticism, and has become a consistent shooter as well. If Memphis makes the Finals, he will have to play at an All-Star level, which he has proven to be capable of doing.
The Spurs-Lakers series was a mismatch given the injuries; as an unabashed Spurs fan, I must say I am glad that the Spurs and Ginobili got a solid week of rest--after looking vulnerable and old near the end of the season, the Spurs are now getting
healthy at exactly the right time.
The Miami Heat did what they had to do; they are a complete team, with the best perimeter player since Jordan controlling everything, and a bench of quality role players to prevent any letdown when LeBron or Wade sits.
The Indiana Pacers, widely considered to be the toughest threat to the Heat in the East, closed out the Hawks on the road, which is not an easy task.
The loathsome NY Knicks hung on for dear life against the aging, injury-depleted Celtics. It is funny to note that the Knicks are basically made up of the Nuggets teams that got knocked out of the playoffs every year by either the Spurs or Lakers. The only big difference is the presence of Tyson Chandler. When healthy, Chandler is a game-changer on both ends, due to his ability defensively to cover space, challenge shots, box out, and move in space, and offensively to finish dunks and to tap out misses. It will be interesting to see how the Knicks are impacted when Stoudamire returns from injury.
The OKC Thunder, all of a sudden quite vulnerable without Westbrook, barely survived a young Rockets team.
The Warriors survived a disgraceful attempt to lose game 6, and hung on against a Nuggets team that recently lost their best player, Danilo Gallinari, to a torn ACL, and was forced to insert Corey Brewer into the role Gallo filled, meaning lots of wide open missed 3s. As gutty as the Warriors win was without David Lee, they are going to be in trouble in the next round when they have to face the Spurs.
ROUND 2 MATCHUPS
Spurs v Warriors. The Spurs must have laughed their asses off after seeing how poorly the Warriors played in their close-out game against the Nuggets; it would not be an exaggeration to say the last 6 minutes of that game was the sloppiest, most embarrassing playoff win I have ever seen. The Warriors were overcome by panic, and could literally barely touch the ball without turning it over. Against the Spurs, and with no David Lee, the Warriors are going to get destroyed. Ginobili and Parker will eat up the Warriors with pick and rolls, and with no Lee to facilitate and score, the Spurs will basically ignore whoever the Warriors put at the PF spot, and play five-on-four defense.
Spurs in 5.
Grizzlies vs Thunder. Gasol and Z-Bo have an advantage over every pair of bigs in the NBA, and this matchup is no exception. I didn't see game 1 (which the Thunder won behind Durant's 35-15-6 line), but I imagine that the only way for the Thunder to win the series is if KD is the best player on the court in 4 of the 7 games, and Kevin Martin or another role player steps up to such a level to replace Westbrook's production in those same 4 games. I don't see it happening. The Thunder are worse at 4 of the 5 positions, although they do have an advantage with Kevin Martin coming off the bench. Jerryd Bayless and Poindexter will have to hit open 3s to make the Thunder pay for sagging off of the 3 point line to double down on Gasol and Randolph. At the end of the day, I believe the Grizzlies are a more physical team with better defense, and will be able to overcome their lack of perimeter scoring through improved play from Mike Conley and suffocating defense.
Grizz in 6.
Knicks vs Pacers. The Pacers are a tough matchup for the Knicks, or anyone else, for that matter. They have strong wing defenders, toughness, size, good defensive schemes, and can score both inside and outside, with multiple ball handlers and post players. Hibbert is an excellent defensive anchor and can score with his back to the basket, a rare combination among today's centers. Overall, the Pacers lack elite outside shooting and are inexperienced, but otherwise have no glaring weaknesses.
The Knicks counter with the individual brilliance/ballhogging of Carmelo Anthony, the incredible streakiness of JR Smith, Ray Felton's emergence as a top-flight point guard, and the energy, rebounding, and toughness of Tyson Chandler. Their defense is mediocre, they run too many isolation plays for Carmelo, JR Smith is hit or miss, and the team has no interior scoring.
I see the Pacers winning this series; they are bigger, more athletic, less streaky, and less temperamental than the Knicks. Carmelo has never won anything as a professional for a reason; he is a terrible teammate, easily frustrated, a below-average defender, and is a major ballhog. I can't imagine anyone less fun to play with besides Kobe. Carmelo went 25-82 in the last 3 games of the Celtics-Knicks series; the Pacers are better, more athletic, longer, and younger than the Celtics. I see Melo struggling with Paul George while on offense, and getting in foul trouble or owned by David West on the defensive end.
If Amare comes back, and Carmelo has to move back to the 3, the Knicks will lose their court spacing, and get worse defensively. Not a recipe for success. Shumpert is going to be a key for the Knicks; even coming off of a torn ACL (suffered the same day as Derrick Rose, but Shumpert returned to action 2 months ago), he is still an excellent defender, and has improved his outside shot. Given Novak's back injury and defensive shortcomings, Shumpert will see minutes at the 3; if he can defend Paul George, the Knicks have a good shot.
Pacers in 6.
Miami vs Chicago
Possibly the most anticipated second-round matchup, due to the rivalry these teams have built up over the years, the possible return of Derrick Rose, and the physicality that Chicago brings to the table. The Bulls have no right to even think of this series, but, if Rose comes back, they could win one or even two games. Rose isn't likely to come back, however. Further, the advantage that Chicago used to have over Miami inside is not as large as it once was, as the addition of the
Birdman has fortified a once-weak frontline.
If Luol Deng (in the ER as of 2 days ago) is miraculously able to come back, and Hinrich can play through his calf injury, the Bulls defense should frustrate Miami for stretches. On the other hand, Miami's defense is similarly stifling, but Chicago's offense lacks the elite skills to overcome such tenacity. Every possession in this series will be a war; there will be pushing, hard fouls, and likely some ejections as well. Sadly for Chicago, at the end of the day, without Rose, Miami has the two best players in the series, and will likely use their superior firepower to overcome Chicago's incredible tenacity.
Miami in 5.
