Fight Breakdown: Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen

Chael Sonnen vs Jon Jones

In preparation for writing this column, yours truly has done a fair bit of research on the career of Chael Sonnen (read: watching youtube videos of Chael dominating, then tapping out immediately after getting caught in a submission).  Losses to Jeremy Horn (x3), Forrest Griffin, Trevor Prangley, Babalu Sobral, Demian Maia, and Anderson Silva (among others) have proved to be the defining moments of an otherwise stellar career. 

Tomorrow night, facing the best pound for pound fighter in mma history not named Fedor, Sonnen is going to find himself in an interesting position: against an opponent he cannot take down.  There is almost unanimous agreement that Chael will lose tomorrow night; the more interesting question is how he will lose. 

Breakdown: On the Feet

Jon Jones is not a great striker, but he has a combination of skills and physical traits that make him formidable on the feet.  Jones possesses surprising agility and speed for a man his size.  Those traits, combined with his imaginative combinations, surprising flexibility, penchant for violence, raptor-like reach, and complete lack of fear of getting taken down, make him dangerous.  Having seen all of his UFC fights, several things stand out.  Jon Jones is not confident in punching exchanges; he is additionally vulnerable to quick-fisted strikers who have the footspeed and movement to get inside of his reach, and can make him pay for throwing kicks. 

 

The only time in Jones’ career in which he legitimately looked like the lesser fighter was in the first round of his title defense against Lyoto Machida. 

  Against a foe fleeter of hand and foot, with a PhD in movement and angles, Jones looked lost.  Machida pot-shotted him all round, and kept Jones off balance.  Jon likes to use his kicks to control the distance, but against someone who was able to control the range (and in so doing, counter Jones’ kicks with effective punches), Jones had little to offer on the feet.  After more of the same in the early part of the second round, Jones finally was able to take Machida down, land a massive, blinding (literally—Machida said he could not see) elbow, and finish ‘The Dragon’ with a choke.  Jones showed good composure on the feet in the fight, and the ability to respond to challenging situations. 

Against Rampage, a fearsome puncher with limited footspeed and flexibility, Jones landed a series of kicks—front kicks, spin kicks, knees, and low kicks.  He was able to control the distance and batter Rampage (although never came close to stopping him, or ever seemed to hurt him, actually).  In the most memorable moment of the fight, Jones actually ran away from Rampage when the latter finally got into punching range.  Jones does not have a bad chin, but he does not like getting hit. 

Against Rashad Evans, who possesses much better foot speed (but a far softer jaw) than Rampage, Jon Jones utilized elbows in a way I had never seen before in MMA.  He literally used his elbows as fists: 

Against Stephan Bonner, Shogun, and Matt Hamill, Jones showed off more of his amazing and unorthodox striking skills:

  

By contrast, Chael Sonnen’s repertoire is quite limited.  Instead of flashy kicks and spinning elbows, Chael relies on his tight boxing, bully strength, and excellent takedowns to create openings to exploit on the feet. 

  

While Chael has good hands, nice head movement, and aggression working for him, he is not super-fast, and his chin is nothing to write home about.  Further, given how good of a wrestler Jones is, as well as how dangerous Jones is in the clinch with his knees and elbows, Chael is not going to have many good options striking; if he lets Jones determine the distance, Jon will use his feet to keep Chael away.  If Chael closes the distance, he is going to find himself running into knees, elbows, and takedowns.    Advantage: Jones.

Takedowns:  

In the clinch, Jon Jones has shown a crazy combination of strikes, foot sweeps, and grip strength.  Chael is actually likely to be the stronger man, and has a better wrestling pedigree than Jones, but despite that, he is going to find himself in a world of hurt (likely on his back) if he lets Jones get a hold of him. Why?  Because Jones' combination of wrestling acumen, athleticism, size, fluidity of movement, and creativity make him the de facto best wrestler in the weight class, regardless of amateur wrestling accomplishments.  

 

Thus, it would seem that Chael’s only real chance is to take Jones down, while also avoiding the clinch.  That means shooting in on a man with extremely long limbs, a tremendous wrestling background, and sharp knees.  If anyone can take Jones down, it is Chael; Sonnen has explosive strength in his double-leg, has a knack for getting in takedown range, and has the mental fortitude to keep fighting for the takedown if his initial effort is rebuffed.  

 

As we saw in the first Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen fight, Chael also has the ability to transition from punches to takedowns quite well--he is no Fedor in this regard (enjoy the GIF of the GOAT below), but he is still talented enough at both punching and takedowns (especially the latter) to keep his opponents off-guard.

 Chael is no Fedor:

However, even if Chael can get Jones down, so what?  Chael was on top of Anderson Silva for a full 6 rounds and wasn’t able to finish ‘The Spider’, although he certainly did land a considerable number of damaging blows.




Chael is going to need a similar output against Jones, and has to pray that he can land something big to hurt the champion.   In terms of submissions, Chael has scored several during his career, but more often than not, if he is involved in a fight ending in a submission, it is Chael tapping out.  

If, on the other hand, Jones ends up on top of Sonnen, the game is over.  Jon Jones is the single most violent fighter I have ever seen in the UFC (Wanderlei Silva in Pride was a more violent fighter, but the rules in those days favored such violence, given the inclusion of soccer kicks and head stomps).   Jones gets more torque on his elbows than anyone in the history of the sport due to a combination of wingspan and technique.  He is a savage in the cage, a true master of inflicting terrible damage.  

Breaking Brandon Vera's face: 

Choking out Bader:

Choking out Machida:

Choking out Rampage:

Beating Shogun to the point that I was worried for the latter's life.  Notice that Shogun actually taps out AFTER the ref has already stopped the fight:

PREDICTION: Jones KO 2