The Case For Nick Diaz
Georges St. Pierre has a legitimate claim to being called
the best fighter in mma history. Unlike
Anderson Silva who has dominated what has historically been the UFC’s weakest
non-heavyweight class, GSP has fought the best guys in the world in the toughest
division in the world. For the most
part, he has dominated them. Fitch,
Koscheck (x2), Shields, Penn (with the help of terrible judging the first time
and Vaseline the second time), Condit, Sherk, Hughes (x2), Karo Parisyian (now
a recovering drug addict, but back then, the slickest judoka in mma), and Frank Trigg,
among others. That being said, Georges
has holes in his game, holes that Nick Diaz is uniquely qualified to
exploit.
The only times St. Pierre has looked pedestrian in his mma
career came against BJ Penn, Carlos Condit, Matt Hughes, Jake Shields, and Matt
Serra. Each of the four fights displays
a particular weakness on which Diaz may capitalize.
BJ Penn won the first round of their first fight by busting
up Georges with his jab and avoiding GSP’s lay and pray tactics. As fast as GSP’s hands are, he isn’t a
particularly good boxer. He possesses a
nice jab, excellent foot and hand speed, and a tight guard, but he does not
seem comfortable boxing. BJ does. BJ has slick head movement, a snaky jab, a
hard head, and surprising power and speed.
He vexed Georges, who literally spent the last two rounds holding on for
dear life both against the cage and on the ground in hopes of avoiding further
damage. When Georges got hit repeatedly
against BJ, he looked panicked and surprised.
A fighter’s reaction to seeing his own blood is not indicative of any
skills or lack thereof that he may possess, but rather is a valuable piece of
insight into a fighter’s psyche. Against
BJ, GSP revealed, if not a fear of getting hit, at least a strong distaste for
exchanging punches.
BJ-GSP I is quite relevant to the upcoming Diaz-GSP
matchup. Both BJ and Diaz possess slick
boxing, excellent jiu jitsu, good beards, and gameness to stand in the pocket
and trade. Sadly for BJ, as good of a
boxer/jiu jitsu guy as he is, and as game as he is, his size and cardio
betrayed him, allowing GSP to hug his way to “victory”. Nick Diaz, by contrast, runs triathalons in
his spare time, possesses a much larger frame than BJ, and is three inches
taller than GSP. Further, he is a better
boxer than BJ, and a southpaw to boot. In
sum, the boxing advantages BJ Penn had over GSP, Nick Diaz has as well, but
they are much larger advantages (to say nothing of Diaz’s body punching
prowess, something Penn lacks entirely).
Further, GSP’s real hatred of Diaz, combined with Nick’s in-fight
taunting (I expect Nick’s middle fingers to be displayed as soon as the opening
bell sounds), are liable to make Georges actually stay on the feet and fight.
Carlos Condit does not have the boxing acumen of Nick Diaz,
but he does have a high level of muay Thai skills. These skills were quite clearly on display
when he dropped GSP with a head kick that had the champion almost unconscious. However, because mma judges are, shalle we
say, not the best, GSP won the round on two scorecards by holding Condit in his
embrace on the ground for several minutes.
GSP was able to take Carlos down at will throughout the
fight, but on the ground, between Carlos’ active guard, constant strikes from
the bottom, and lack of fear of GSP’s (non-existent) ability to finish, Condit
made GSP’s face look like a pound of raw hamburger.
While Diaz is a puncher and Condit is a kicker, they share important traits. Both have great cardio,
active guards, enjoy exchanging blows, and have sizeable height/length (at least leg length, if not arm
length) advantages over the champion.
Condit was able to mostly neutralize GSP on the ground, and that despite
the fact that he is nowhere near as good as Diaz as it pertains to jiu jitsu. In fact, GSP has never really grappled with a
jiu jitsu ace his size. BJ Penn and
Serra were both too small to pose a legitimate threat to submit him (and he
used Vaseline to ensure that BJ’s guard would be neutralized), and GSP stayed
on the feet with Jake Shields for 25 minutes to avoid any kind of grappling,
even though GSP usually favors a wrestling-based strategy (that is where his
strength lies).
In fact, the Jake Shields fight provides some valuable
insight into GSP’s fight preparation and strategy. Shields, a world-class grappler and horrid
striker, was able to actually win two rounds against GSP in their standup
battle. How did that happen? Well, when there is no fear of a takedown,
fighters are able to utilize their arsenals on the feet against GSP in a way
they otherwise are afraid to because of GSP’s amazing takedowns, fast shot, and
seamless transitions between striking and grappling. Because Jake Shields had no fear of a
takedown (because he is a better grappler than GSP), he was able to trade with
GSP as if he were fighting in a muay Thai fight, rather than a mma fight.
GSP got punched (or poked, depending on which side you ask) in
the eye in the 3rd or 4th round, and was not the same
fighter after that (although to be fair, he looked terrible in the entire
fight—the worst winning performance of his career, I would say). That is not an excuse for losing the next two
rounds; rather, it reinforces the point I made about GSP’s first fight against
BJ Penn: when GSP gets hurt to the head, he is not the same fighter. If Jake Shields, a guy with terrible
striking, was able to nail him in the eye and completely throw him off his game,
what will happen to GSP against Nick Diaz?
The Hughes and Serra losses came so long ago that their
relevancy is not as great as that of the three aforementioned fights, but still
worth looking at, if for no other reason than for what they tell us about GSP’s
psyche. Against Matt Hughes, GSP tapped
out to an armbar with one second left in the first round. GSP was quite young at the time so you could
call it a rookie mistake, or you could also call it GSP’s lack of guts. Against Serra, GSP similarly tapped out. This time, his tap came after getting dropped
by the Terror and absorbing some hard shots on the ground. I, for one, could not fathom a situation in
which Nick Diaz would ever tap out.
Against Paul Daley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH065jtfm9I), Nick
got dropped by a much bigger, more explosive puncher than Matt Serra, took some
big shots on the ground, got back up, dropped his hands again, talked shit
again, and knocked Paul Daley out. We
all know what GSP would have done in that situation. (TAP TAP)
Diaz KO 3.
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